Democratisation in the European Neighbourhood
Democratisation in the European Neighbourhood
Contributor(s): Michael Emerson (Editor)
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Civil Society, Governance, EU-Accession / EU-DEvelopment
Published by: CEPS Centre for European Policy Studies
Keywords: Democratisation; European Neighbourhood; process of democratisation; EU enlargement; Orange, Rose and Cedar Revolutions; European CIS states; Mediterranean Arab world; comprehensive critique;
Summary/Abstract: This is the first state-of-the-art work on the process of democratisation in the wider European neighbourhood since the seminal events of 2004, with the EU's enlargement and the Orange, Rose and Cedar Revolutions beyond. Covering both the European CIS states and the Mediterranean Arab world, leading experts from these regions interpret the recent revolutions and prospects for further democratisation in the European neighbourhood. These analyses are accompanied by a comprehensive critique of the EU as promoter of democracy.
Series: CEPS Paperback Series
- Print-ISBN-10: 92-9079-592-1
- Page Count: 240
- Publication Year: 2005
- Language: English
EU Enlargement and Democracy Progress
EU Enlargement and Democracy Progress
(EU Enlargement and Democracy Progress)
- Author(s):Alina Mungiu-Pippidi
- Language:English
- Subject(s):Governance, Politics and society, EU-Accession / EU-DEvelopment
- Page Range:15-37
- No. of Pages:23
- Keywords:EU enlargement; soft power; fake democracy;
- Summary/Abstract:The relation between EU accession and democratisation is not a simple one. It is generally considered that the influence of the EU over democratising the neighbouring countries can act through either conditionality or socialisation, or a mixture of the two. Conditionality implies that the EU is phasing assistance, ranging from economic, political and institutional incentives to full membership on the condition that political and economic objectives are met. Socialisation implies that the EU does not pursue a forceful policy, but engages its neighbours in multiple personal and institutional contacts and joint activities, offering a model for successful transformation. In practice, the two processes are closely intertwined, to the extent that in the western Balkans one cannot presently tell them apart.
The Dynamics and Sustainability of the Rose Revolution
The Dynamics and Sustainability of the Rose Revolution
(The Dynamics and Sustainability of the Rose Revolution)
- Author(s):Ghia Nodia
- Language:English
- Subject(s):Civil Society, Governance, Government/Political systems
- Page Range:38-52
- No. of Pages:15
- Keywords:Democracy development in Georgia; Rose Revolution; Eduard Shevardnadze; Mikheil Saakashvili;
- Summary/Abstract:This essay seeks to identify what the case of Georgia – more specifically, the Rose Revolution and its aftermath teaches us about the nature of revolutions and the prospects for democracy in countries that are, well, like Georgia. The phrase ‘countries like Georgia’ refers to countries and political regimes that are not democratic, but which cannot be considered classical dictatorships either. Such countries have both authoritarian and democratic elements in their political systems (and the democratic elements are not just a façade), so there are some internal political dynamics that make the prospects for the implementation of the democratic project not completely hopeless. This description relates to a very large part of the world that is often called the ‘grey zone’ – a reflection of mainstream political science’s inability to find some kind of acceptable term for it. Therefore, this essay is structured according to the conceptual problems that exist around the democratisation project in our world – and about which the experience of the Rose Revolution in Georgia has something to say.
The Orange Revolution: Explaining the Unexpected
The Orange Revolution: Explaining the Unexpected
(The Orange Revolution: Explaining the Unexpected)
- Author(s):Hryhoriy Nemyria
- Language:English
- Subject(s):Civil Society, Governance, Government/Political systems
- Page Range:53-62
- No. of Pages:10
- Keywords:Orange Revolution; Ukrainian Democracy; Viktor Yanukovych;
- Summary/Abstract:Very few experts predicted Ukraine’s Orange Revolution. Nonetheless the unexpected happened. Therefore the first question to ask is: What are the underlying sources and causes of Ukraine's breakthrough to democracy? The answer would bring us to a more vital question of how does one sustain healthy domestic political change. We then try to assess the potential of a wider impact of the Orange Revolution which has to do not just with Ukraine's immediate neighbours but also relates to the phenomena of overlapping integration spaces,1 including partnership and cooperation with the European Union, the Euro-Atlantic agenda and developments within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). It is clear that there was no single cause that triggered the Orange Revolution. It came as a result of interaction between various factors, the most important being the role of civil society, national identity, the nature of political institutions and modes of external pressures. Needless to say, it would be misleading to concentrate only on the political process before and during the presidential elections in 2004. There are different ways to explain the revolution depending on how deep one wants to dig. I would suggest that there were three distinctive periods in the genesis of the Orange Revolution: i) 1991-2001: maturation, ii) 2002-03: incubation, and iii) 2004: breakthrough. Basically these 14 years since the break-up of the Soviet Union and Ukraine's newly obtained independence [from above] witnessed a very gradual and uneven process of growing differentiation in the initially rather homogeneous post-Soviet space which was best [described at the beginning as a ‘legacy paradigm’.]
Quid Russian Democracy?
Quid Russian Democracy?
(Quid Russian Democracy?)
- Author(s):Nikolay Petrov
- Language:English
- Subject(s):Civil Society, Governance, Government/Political systems
- Page Range:63-70
- No. of Pages:8
- Keywords:Vladimir Putin; Managed Democracy; Democracy in Russia;
- Summary/Abstract:The year 2004 was marked by a whole set of failures by President Vladimir Putin’s regime. Continuation of the anti-federal reform, electoral reform and intensified pressure on civil society should be mentioned in this respect. It was the first year of a purely Putin political regime and one that has proven it to be extremely ineffective. Nevertheless, during the period from late 2004 to early 2005, the Orange Revolution in Ukraine and the mass protest movement caused by the monetary reform gave room for much more optimism with regard to the prospects of democracy in Russia. Although the glass is still “half full and leaking” to use Michael McFaul’s image, the end of the leaking is clearly in sight because the glass will either be repaired or replaced in a relatively short while. Since last January, the idea of extreme passivism on the part of the Russian public as a whole and especially among the youth is over, as well as the notion of stagnation under Mr Putin with absolute certainty and predictability. Russian democracy is in better shape than one could imagine if looking from the outside at what has been going on in the country over the last few years. Indeed, Mr Putin has weakened all the democratic institutions except for the presidency, and last year brought further changes in the direction of authoritarianism. Thus the evaluation by Freedom House reflects the grim state of democracy in Russia. There are, however, at least three reasons to be more optimistic with regard to the future of Russian democracy: 1) the regions, which in some cases are much more democratic than the centre; 2) Russia’s youth, who are much more active and interested in keeping and promoting democracy than has until recently been recognised – indeed, experts are underestimating the impact of the whole shift of the voters’ generation, which has been taking place since the late 1980s; and finally, as explained below, 3) the machinery of managed-democracy (MD).
Prospects for Democracy in Belarus
Prospects for Democracy in Belarus
(Prospects for Democracy in Belarus)
- Author(s):Uladzimer Rouda
- Language:English
- Subject(s):Civil Society, Governance, Politics and society
- Page Range:71-92
- No. of Pages:22
- Summary/Abstract:Belarus is a country in which democratic revolution has not yet taken place, but this essay argues that its chances are rather high. This conclusion is related in some paradoxical way to one of the main shortcomings of Belarus at present in comparison with pre-revolutionary Georgia and Ukraine: the character of the current political regime in the country. A semi-sultanistic political system with its low level of institutionalisation, high fusion of the ‘public’ and ‘private’, and the concentration of all power in the hands of the head of state, leaves very limited opportunities for any other forms of democratic transition connected with reforms from above or bargaining by elites. As Larry Diamond has stressed, “when authoritarian rule has been highly personalistic and decadent…the real impetus for democratic change tends to originate outside of the regime in the mobilization of civil society”. The nature of the power – personal rather than organisational – makes it difficult for opponents within the regime to oust the ruler and also makes it unlikely that such opponents would exist in any significant numbers or the strength necessary for initiating reforms from above. In other words, the rapid transformation of President Alexander Lukashenka’s power into a neo-patrimonial one simultaneously portends its movement towards an inescapable collapse in the form of “replacement” in Samuel Huntington’s words or “ruptura” in Juan Linz’s definition of this phenomenon.
Islam, Freedom and Democracy in the Arab World
Islam, Freedom and Democracy in the Arab World
(Islam, Freedom and Democracy in the Arab World)
- Author(s):Bassam Tibi
- Language:English
- Subject(s):Civil Society, Politics and religion, Politics and society
- Page Range:93-116
- No. of Pages:24
- Summary/Abstract:It is argued that the developments in the field of democracy in the Arab world have more important implications for Europe than for the US. If democracy is dismissed, it will be impossible for the European Islamic diaspora to integrate. Political freedom in Arab societies will not fall from heaven. Nor will it be presented as a gift by a ruler or be successfully imposed from outside by an external power. History teaches us that people have to fight for their rights and will continue to be subjugated as long as they fail to do so. In this context one needs to ask whether political Islam provides a light at the end of the dark Middle Eastern tunnel. The answer of the present analysis suggests that it does not. Yet the historical experience of introducing democracy to the Arab world has shown that no one can overlook the religion of Islam while talking about democracy in a political sense. The place of Islam has to be restricted, however, to an ethics of democracy and never be extended to a system of government and state. This author cannot detect the spirit and institutions of democracy either in the concept or practice of a Shari’a state. Therefore, the de-politicisation of Islam is an essential part of the needed democratisation of this religion. Stated in a nutshell, this formula presented by the Islamists of al-Islam huwa al-Hal [Islam is the solution] is to be reversed: political Islam is not the solution! The conclusion is thus twofold – on the one hand, there can be no democracy or democratisation without engaging an Islamic discourse on this issue. On the other hand, an Islamisation of politics in the Arab world is not the right avenue for introducing a civil Islam that is consonant with democracy. To be sure, democracy is a political culture of rule based on pluralism; it is not a valuefree procedure of voting for a political direction that opposes pluralism in a civil society in favour of a religion-based rule under the heading of ‘nizam Islami’ [Islamic system]. This nizam would be no road to democratisation. Arab democracy cannot be a copy of Western democracy. Nevertheless, it could be a variety of the phenomenon of a universal democracy, but never really a rule in its own terms.
Egypt’s Moment of Reform: a Reality or an Illusion?
Egypt’s Moment of Reform: a Reality or an Illusion?
(Egypt’s Moment of Reform: a Reality or an Illusion?)
- Author(s):Emad El-Din Shahin
- Language:English
- Subject(s):Civil Society, Government/Political systems, Electoral systems, Politics and religion, Politics and society
- Page Range:117-130
- No. of Pages:14
- Summary/Abstract:The movement for democratic reform in Egypt seems to be gathering strength. Some of the factors that would make a good case for democratic transformation are rapidly converging: the formation of a wide spectrum of discontented segments in society; the mushrooming of pro-reform grassroots movements that agree on a clear list of short-term demands; and a sympathetic pro-reform international context. With presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled to take place in September and November respectively, will Egypt finally experience its democratic spring? The answer to this question still seems uncertain. The reform movement faces numerous challenges: the possibility of being sidelined by an agreement between the regime and external actors for the sake of stability and containing change; regime repression of the reform movement; and the radicalisation of the movement itself and the possible eruption of sporadic violence or chaos. For reform to become a reality and not another missed opportunity, certain structural changes and institutional safeguards must be introduced.
Does the EU Promote Democracy in Palestine?
Does the EU Promote Democracy in Palestine?
(Does the EU Promote Democracy in Palestine?)
- Author(s):Natalie Tocci
- Language:English
- Subject(s):Governance, Government/Political systems, Electoral systems, Developing nations, Geopolitics
- Page Range:131-152
- No. of Pages:22
- Summary/Abstract:Particularly since the late 1990s, EU actors have become increasingly vocal about the need for democracy and good governance in Palestine. Palestinian democracy is viewed officially both as desirable per se as well as instrumental to the peace process since the eruption of the second intifada. To support Palestinian democracy, the Union has used diplomatic instruments, as well as bilateral aid and trade policies, delivered conditionally upon the fulfilment of political and legal benchmarks. The Palestinian Authority (PA) is also included in the nascent European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). Compared to other cases in the southern neighbourhood, the EU can take pride in achieving relative success when it comes to strengthening Palestinian democracy and good governance. Palestine’s economic and political dependence on Europe has translated into a high degree of potential EU influence on the PA. This influence has been exerted by graduating the delivery of EU (principally aid-related) benefits in compliance with specified and monitored obligations. Yet the Union’s potential influence has not been fully realised. At times, reforms passed have been inadequate, superficial or implemented for the primary purpose of acquiescing to foreign demands. The reasons explaining the limits in EU conditionality are manifold. The most critical are those linked to the sui generis context in Palestine. The deteriorating economic and humanitarian situation, the deepening Israeli occupation, the blunt US approach to Palestinian reform during Arafat’s rule and internal Palestinian political dynamics in a non-state context have all hindered the potential impact of EU conditionality.
Parties of Power as Roadblocks to Democracy: the Cases of Ukraine and Egypt
Parties of Power as Roadblocks to Democracy: the Cases of Ukraine and Egypt
(Parties of Power as Roadblocks to Democracy: the Cases of Ukraine and Egypt)
- Author(s):Madalena Resende, Hendrik Kraetzschmar
- Language:English
- Subject(s):Governance, Government/Political systems, Politics and society
- Page Range:153-167
- No. of Pages:15
- Keywords:Democracy in Ukraine; Democracy in Egypt;parties of power;
- Summary/Abstract:Political parties are the backbone of any functioning representative democracy. They are the agents that compete in the political arena for public office by offering programmatic alternatives to voters. It is not surprising therefore that an analysis of countries that have failed todemocratise shows political parties suffering from a severe pathology that renders them weak institutions. In both the eastern and the southern neighbourhood of the EU, a type of party has emerged, the ‘party of power’ characterised by its dependence on the state, the absence of ideology and the linkage with specific sectoral groups. Examples of such parties can be found in Ukraine during the reign of President Kuchma and in present-day Egypt. The ideological weakness of parties of power and their dependence on the state is both a symptom and a cause of the failure of democratic consolidation. Because they prevent the emergence of a multi-party system based on competing ideological-programmatic currents, these parties and their legacies should be seen as an important stumbling block in the transition towards and consolidation of democracy. This paper attempts a summary analysis of the phenomena, suggesting that an alternative model of party development is required in order for democracy to take hold in the eastern and southern neighbourhood of the EU.
The Reluctant Debutante: the EU as Promoter of Democracy in its Neighbourhood
The Reluctant Debutante: the EU as Promoter of Democracy in its Neighbourhood
(The Reluctant Debutante: the EU as Promoter of Democracy in its Neighbourhood)
- Author(s):Michael Emerson, Senem Aydin, Gergana Noutcheva, Natalie Tocci, Marius Vahl, Richard Youngs
- Language:English
- Subject(s):Governance, Government/Political systems, International relations/trade, Electoral systems
- Page Range:169-230
- No. of Pages:63
- Keywords:EU as Exporter of Democratic Values;
- Summary/Abstract:The role of the European Union in the promotion of democracy in its wider neighbourhood can be assessed at different levels, from the broad sweep of the history of Europe through the centuries, to the contemporary history of the European Union as a set of norms, values and institutions, and finally down to the technicalities of democracy promotion programmes. The substance of the EU’s role is bound up with the paradigm of ‘Europeanisation’, which has a strong normative democratic content, and at the same time relates to the empowerment of the EU institutions. There are certainly inhibitions in the system holding the EU back from playing this role, which come from particular sensitivities of individual member states. These reflect a whole collection of syndromes, ranging from different proximities and historical experiences in relation to the various neighbours, to different European visions and world views. The divergences represented by these syndromes sometimes make it difficult or impossible for the EU institutions to pursue active foreign policies, including democracy promotion.
