Series:CEPS Paperback Series

A Different Country. Russia’s Economic Resurgence

Author(s): Lucio Vinhas de Souza / Language(s): English

Russia is now once again one of the ten largest economies in the world (representing around 70% of Germany’s GDP in purchasing power parity in 2007). In addition, Russia is the third largest trading partner of the EU, the fourth largest trade partner of the eurozone and an essential energy supplier to the EU. This recovery makes Russia an economic – and political – actor that cannot be ignored. In this authoritative new book, Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, desk officer for Russia in the Directorate–General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission, reviews the country’s evolving macroeconomic performance and structural policy framework, from the difficult days of the recession in the early transition period and the 1998 crisis to Russia’s sustained and robust growth since 1999. He outlines the remaining reform priorities in Russia and concludes with pragmatic policy recommendations for the reform agenda.

A people’s peace in Cyprus

Testing public opinion on the options for a comprehensive settlement

Author(s): Aleksandros Lordos,Erol Kaymak,Natalie Tocci / Language(s): English

The year 2009 is decisive for the protracted Cyprus conflict. Incentives for a settlement might be higher and above all more evenly distributed among all parties than in 2004, when the Annan Plan failed due to an overwhelming Greek Cypriot rejection of the proposed blueprint despite Turkish Cypriot acceptance of the plan. Yet while strategic assessments and elite incentives bode cautiously well for a Cyprus settlement, ultimately an agreement will have to be approved by the two Cypriot communities in referendums and above all it will have to be implemented by the Cypriots on the ground. In other words, ordinary Cypriots lie at the crux of the conflict settlement as well as the drawn-out conflict resolution process, determining the ultimate success or failure of any blueprint signed by their leaders.

An Appraisal of the European Commission of Crisis. Has the Juncker Commission delivered a new start for EU Justice and Home Affairs?

Author(s): Sergio Carrera / Language(s): English

Has the Juncker Commission delivered a “new start” for EU Justice and Home Affairs (JHA) policies? This book examines the question in relation to the performance of the European Commission’s intra-institutional setting while taking stock of the most relevant legislative developments in JHA or the Area of Freedom, Security and Justice (AFSJ) from2014 to 2018.

Artificial Intelligence. Ethics, governance and policy challenges

Author(s): Andrea Renda / Language(s): English

Like an unannounced guest, artificial intelligence (AI) has suddenly emerged from nerdy discussions in university labs and begun to infiltrate larger venues and policy circles around the globe. Everywhere, and particularly in Europe, the debate has been tainted by much noise and fear, as evidenced in the European Parliament’s resounding report on civil law rules for robotics, in which Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein is evoked on the opening page (European Parliament, 2016). At countless seminars, workshops and conferences, self-proclaimed “experts” voice concerns about robots taking our jobs, disrupting our social interactions, manipulating public opinion and political elections, and ultimately taking over the world by dismissing human beings, once and for all, as redundant and inefficient legacies of the past.

Building Confidence in Peace. Public opinion and the Cyprus Peace process

Author(s): Erol Kaymak,Aleksandros Lordos,Natalie Tocci / Language(s): English

Building Confidence in Peace reports and analyses the results of the firstin a series of public opinion surveys in Cyprus carried out by the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) in collaboration with Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot partners. The project, which began in late 2007, gained momentum and significance with the 21 March 2008 peace process launched by the Greek Cypriot President Demetris Christofias and his Turkish Cypriot counterpart Mehmet Ali Talat.Building Confidence in Peace reports and analyses the results of the first public opinion survey in Cyprus carried out by the Centre for European Policy Studies in collaboration with Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot partners. In the new atmosphere of relaunched negotiations in 2008, this book investigates what Cypriots think of each other, of the peace process and of possible solutions to the conflict. On the basis of our findings, a double need starkly emerges. First, it is essential to act, in parallel with the negotiating process, to raise public confidence in the peace process, in order to ensure that as and when an agreement is reached, the people will go along with it and make its ratification and implementation a success. Second, precisely because of persistent areas of divergence, a set of confidence-building measures (CBMs) should be envisaged to help narrow the gaps separating the two communities. This does not entail shifting attention from negotiations to CBMs. On the contrary, unilateral CBMs or non-controversial measures oriented towards inter-societal reconciliation may have a very positive impact and add momentum to the peace process within a strategic context of renewed negotiations. It is precisely in this spirit that we note the ongoing efforts to build confidence in parallel with the negotiations, first and foremost with the opening of the Ledra Street/Lokmacı gate crossing on 3 April 2008.

Business models in European banking

A pre-and post-crisis screening

Author(s): Rym Ayadi,Emrah Arbak,Willem Pieter DE GROEN,David T. Llewellyn / Language(s): English

Two important and related perspectives are offered at the outset of this review of an important new study by the Centre for European Policy Studies. First, the performance and efficiency of the banking sector has a major impact on a country’s overall efficiency and economic performance, and second, for several European banks, business models changed markedly in the years running up to the banking crisis and are currently in a state of flux.

Composition and Drivers of Energy Prices and Costs: Case Studies in Selected Energy Intensive Industries – 2018

Author(s): Christian Egenhofer,Felice Simonelli,Andrea Renda,Antonella Zarra,William Schmitt,Aurélie Faure,Eleanor Drabik,Vasileios Rizos,Thomas Hähl,Michèle Koper,Angelica Afanador Pujol,Marian Bons / Language(s): English

The current report represents the final deliverable of the 2018 edition of the “Composition and Drivers of Energy Prices and Costs: Case Studies in Selected Energy Intensive Industries” (hereinafter “the Assignment”). The Assignment aimed to achieve two main objectives: 1. Providing well-grounded, bottom-up evidence of the composition and drivers of energy prices and energy costs faced by industrial operators in EU energy intensive sectors.2. Assessing the impact of energy prices and costs and of their components on the cost competitiveness and, where possible, international competitiveness of EU energy intensive sectors.

Convergence of bank regulations on international norms in the Southern Mediterranean

Impact on bank performance and growth

Author(s): Rym Ayadi,Emrah Arbak,Barbara Casu Lukac,Mohammed Yazid Boumghar,Jawad Kerdoudi,Moez Labidi,Sami Ben Naceur / Language(s): English

International standards and norms on banking regulations have, once again, leaped to the forefront of the policy discussion in developed nations due to the recent crisis in the world’s financial markets. This discussion is far from new, nor does it apply exclusively to the world’s most advanced economies. A sound and well-enforced regulatory regime can help developing nations to channel financial resources more efficiently into investments. For open economies, it can also act as a buffer, an important stability factor in today’s shaky market situation.

Cybersecurity in Finance. Getting the policy mix right!

Author(s): Richard Parlour,Sylvain Bouyon,Simon Krause / Language(s): English

With the inexorable rise of e-commerce comes the inexorable rise of the e-criminal. Cybercrime is now the world’s fastest growing crime. It has leapt to number two of the top ten business risks worldwide, from not even appearing in that list five years ago. For certain countries, cyberattack is now the risk of greatest concern. Gone are the days of concern about a low level hack of a website by a script kiddie. Today’s attackers are multi-faceted and increasing in sophistication, ranging from advanced persistent threats, corporate espionage, organised crime and ‘hactivists’ to cyberterrorists, ever more competent, and ever better funded. Cybersecurity has moved from being a technical issue to a political and boardroom issue. Financial markets are particularly important as they oil the wheels of all member state economies.

Democratisation in the European Neighbourhood

Author(s): / Language(s): English

This is the first state-of-the-art work on the process of democratisation in the wider European neighbourhood since the seminal events of 2004, with the EU's enlargement and the Orange, Rose and Cedar Revolutions beyond. Covering both the European CIS states and the Mediterranean Arab world, leading experts from these regions interpret the recent revolutions and prospects for further democratisation in the European neighbourhood. These analyses are accompanied by a comprehensive critique of the EU as promoter of democracy.

Engaging Central Asia. The European Union’s new strategy in the heart of Eurasia

Author(s): / Language(s): English

During the Soviet era, the lands of contemporary Central Asia were largely terra incognito for the outside world. Located deep within the Soviet Union, the region was isolated for much of the 20th century. During this period, Soviet Central Asia (the Uzbek, Tajik, Turkmen and Kyrgyz republics) and Kazakhstan (which was seen as administratively separate from the other four republics) were to an extraordinary degree controlled by Moscow and the institutions of Communist power. The sudden and dramatic collapse of the USSR under Mikhail Gorbachev at the end of 1991 thus marked an historic moment for Central Asia for it exposed the region almost overnight to the international community.In July 2007, the European Union initiated a fundamentally new approach to the countries of Central Asia. The launch of the EU Strategy for Central Asia signals a qualitative shift in the Union’s relations with a region of the world that is of growing importance as a supplier of energy, is geographically situated in a politically sensitive area – between China, Russia, Iran, Afghanistan and the south Caucasus – and contains some of the most authoritarian political regimes in the world. In this volume, leading specialists from Europe, the United States and Central Asia explore the key challenges facing the European Union as it seeks to balance its policies between enhancing the Union’s energy, business and security interests in the region while strengthening social justice, democratisation efforts and the protection of human rights. With chapters devoted to the Union’s bilateral relations with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan and to the vital issues of security and democratisation, ‘Engaging Central Asia’ provides the first comprehensive analysis of the EU’s strategic initiative in a part of the world that is fast emerging as one of the key regions of the 21st century.

Ethno-religious conflict in Europe

Typologies of radicalisation in Europe’s Muslim communities

Author(s): / Language(s): English

This book comes from a large research endeavour of the European Union’s 6th Framework Programme, called ‘Microcon’, standing for the micro-foundations of violent conflict. In its entirety, Microcon consists of 28 component projects undertaken by 22 research centres across Europe, under the coordination of Sussex University. The Microcon website (www.microconflict.eu) gives a full account of participants, objectives and results. The project runs from 2007 to 2011.This book addresses the greatest source of societal tensions and violent conflict in contemporary Europe, involving people from minority groups of Muslim culture. Six country case studies – on Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Spain, Russia and the United Kingdom – give a comprehensive account of Islam-related tensions and violence, from the jihadist terrorist acts seen in Europe in the aftermath of 9/11 in the US, through to the urban riots of the type seen in France in 2005. These events are analyzed with a common typology together with detailed accounts of the social context in each country. Also included is an interpretation of the fundamental nature of the Islamist terrorism in Europe, with the outline of a strategy to repel it. The book is a unique source for those seeking to understand the nature of ethno-religious violence in contemporary Europe.

European Islam. Challenges for Public Policy and Society

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Works on Islam in Europe often read like a juxtaposition of national case studies covering the history and perhaps the sociology of immigrant groups in the countries considered. Although the sociology of Islam is well-developed in certain European countries such as France, Germany and the UK, it is only in its infancy as a discipline at the European level. The chapters in this work, by leading European experts in the field, therefore aim to supply policy-makers, analysts and civil society leaders with an inventory of the main issues concerning the presence of Islam in Europe. The key message is that European Islam exists as a powerful transnational phenomenon, and European policy must keep pace with this reality.

Evaluating the EU’s crisis missions in the Balkans

Author(s): Isabelle Ioannides,Ana E. Juncos,Ursula C. Schroeder / Language(s): English

Crisis management has become a new frontier for the functions of the European Union. It is a vital component of the EU’s European security and defence policy (ESDP), which in turn completes the set of policy instruments available for the broader concept of the common foreign and security policy (CFSP). The potential significance of these developments has reached the point that political scientists are now treating the CFSP and ESDP as a research domain. Accordingly, this book is devoted to the findings of four scholars – Eva Gross, Isabelle Ioannides, Ana E. Juncos and Ursula C. Schroeder – who in the context of their PhD researches have been analysing the EU’s first crisis-management missions. They look in some detail at how these first operations have gone, what lessons are to be drawn, and indeed, whether the lessons have been drawn by the EU institutions themselves.Since 2003, EU military and civilian crisis management has emerged as a new field in European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP), also claiming a place high on the political agenda. This book evaluates the EU’s first such operations in the Western Balkans, focusing on lessons learned in the military and police missions to Bosnia and Herzegovina and to Macedonia. The authors have conducted their research both in Brussels and in the field. The evaluations place these operations in political and institutional perspectives, and highlight not only successes but also the shortcomings that will need to be addressed in the years ahead. The relevance of the book is heightened by the increasing number of crisis management missions that the EU is being mandated to take up worldwide, in Africa and Asia as well as the Western Balkans, with major challenges ahead in a police mission in Afghanistan and an impending rule of law mission in Kosovo.

Index of Readiness for Digital Lifelong Learning

Changing How Europeans Upgrade Their Skills

Author(s): Miroslav Beblavý,Sara Baiocco,Zachary Kilhoffer,Mehtap Akgüç,Manon Jacquot / Language(s): English

Digitalisation brings about disruptive transformations in society, ranging from access to services,interaction with others, obtaining and sharing information, to metamorphoses in the nature and organisation of work. Learning is no exception.

Options and national discretions under the Deposit Guarantee Scheme Directive and their treatment in the context of a European Deposit Insurance Scheme

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In the European Union, the Deposit Guarantee Schemes Directive adopted in 2014 sets out rules and procedures to ensure depositor protection and is a key step towards harmonisation of deposit insurance in the European Union. It contains 22 national options and discretions (NODs) which Member States may apply to reflect specific national circumstances. The purpose of this study is to assess the respective national implementations of the NODs, including their practical impact on depositor protection, and to propose policy recommendations regarding their possible treatment under the European Deposit Insurance Scheme, under the assumption that the latter would take the form of a full insurance scheme.

Policies for an Ageing Workforce

Work-life balance, working conditions and equal opportunities

Author(s): / Language(s): English

We are all growing older. On average, life expectancy increases by three months every year. Seen over the span of the last century, this is a testament to enormous social progress. But since we are living longer, we also need to work longer so that the proportion of life spent in employment remains more or less constant. This is the basic premise for maintaining not only our pension systems but also the welfare state, solidarity between generations, and the social fabric.

Political Islam and European Foreign Policy. Perspectives from Muslim Democrats of the Mediterranean

Author(s): / Language(s): English

The time is ripe for the European Union, its institutions and member states to undertake an explicit review of its current policy of ‘benign neglect’ towards the broad collection of ‘Muslim democrat’ parties in the Mediterranean Arab states. The group of experts assembled to produce this new book adduces mounting evidence that this policy may lead to unintended consequences, such as the reinforcement of anti-democratic regimes and radical Islamism. Their arguments favour a broad inclusion of Muslim democrats in EU initiatives aiming at the reform of governance and the development of civil society, without extending to them any singular, exclusive or unsolicited privileges. Contributors include Michael Emerson and Richard Youngs (eds), Samir Amghar, Talal Atrissi, Senem Aydin, Amel Boubekeur, Ruşen Çakır, Salah Eddine Jorshi, Salam Kawakibi, Emad El-Din Shahin, Robert Springborg and Nathalie Tocci.

Readings in European Security. Volume 2

Author(s): / Language(s): English

This second volume of Readings in European Security vividly reflects the continuing changes that profoundly affect the factors shaping the security of the European continent. For a historian in the future, thework undertaken by the CEPS-IISS European Security Forum since 2001will appear in sharp contrast to the sort of issues that were at the heart of security concerns during the 1970s and 1980s, dominated by East-West confrontation.This second volume of Readings in European Security contains the complete set of working papers commissioned by the CEPS–IISS European Security Forum in 2003 (Nos. 10-15), during a period of profound change in the international security environment. These papers illuminate the big issues in European security such as the recently unveiled European security strategy, pre-emptive military action and the future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In-depth analysis is provided on Europe’s approach to regions such as Turkey and the Greater Middle East. Independent experts present EU, US and Russian viewpoints on each topic. Each set of papers is prefaced by an Introduction by the Chairman, François Heisbourg, Director of the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique in Paris.

Readings in European Security. Volume 3

Author(s): / Language(s): English,French

This volume of Readings in European Security contains the papers commissioned for presentation and discussion at the meetings of the CEPS-IISS European Security Forum (ESF) in the period from January 2003 to June 2005. They have been previously published in the European Security Forum Working Paper series, Nos. 16-20. CEPS and IISS gratefully acknowledge financial support received for the European Security Forum from the Compagnia di San Paolo, the US Mission to the EU and NATO.