Възможни сценарии за развитие на Европейския съюз
Scenarios for the EU Development

Author(s): Georgi Chankov
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Government/Political systems
Published by: Университет за национално и световно стопанство (УНСС)
Keywords: European Integration; Elite; Scenarios; Federation; Core; "Europe Menu"
Summary/Abstract: The European integration is an elitist project. In times of crisis, the elite envisions the future of the EU in general versions of a "two-speed Europe" or a "Europe of variable geometry" and makes concrete proposals such as the Europe Project or the Five Scenarios. The ultimate goal is a federation (with the exception of Menu Europe), achievable for a limited number of member states. The visions, more or less realistic, are feasible for a maximum of 15 years ahead. The article examines the extent to which these proposals offer a good response to the negative effects of globalization and the "rise of populism." Possible scenarios outlining a new topography of the EU and its member states have been analyzed. In particular, the influence of indicators such as geoeconomic weight, cultural proximity and political weight on the formation of a federal center, including Germany, France and the Benelux - "Carolingian core" - was studied.A commentary on the so-called “bureaucratic model” of a core with a dependent periphery and its viability is proposed. Conclusions have been proposed on the alternative of keeping the EU of 27 equal member states as a "Europe menu", a model imposed by the rising "counter-elite". Weaker formal relationships allow for more flexible behavior and long-term survival.

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