Resilience of Poland's economy to external shocks: A comparative study of tourist arrivals in relation to Lithuania, Spain and Portugal
Resilience of Poland's economy to external shocks: A comparative study of tourist arrivals in relation to Lithuania, Spain and Portugal

Author(s): Justyna Majewska, Szymon Truskolaski
Subject(s): Economy, Tourism
Published by: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu
Keywords: external shocks’ economy resilience;COVID;war in Ukraine;VAR;
Summary/Abstract: Purpose: The chapter explores the resilience of Poland’s economy to external shocks, focusing on the tourism sector. It aims to compare the impact of various crises, such as the financial crisis, sovereign debt crisis, COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine, on tourist arrivals in Poland, Lithuania, Spain, and Portugal. Design/methodology/approach: Employing a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and Impulse Response Functions (IRFs), the study analyses the effects of these crises on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and foreign tourist arrivals (ARR). Data from the Eurostat Dissemination Database, spanning from Q1 2006 to Q4 2022, is used, with adjustments for seasonality and crisis-specific dummy variables. Findings: The research reveals notable differences in how these economies, with varying tourism dependencies, respond to external shocks. Tourism-dependent countries like Spain and Portugal exhibited greater sensitivity in their GDP and ARR to these shocks compared to less reliant countries like Poland and Lithuania. Research limitations/implications: The study’s scope is limited to four European countries and specific crises, suggesting the potential for broader future research. Practical implications: The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and tourism industry stakeholders, aiding in the development of strategies for crisis mitigation. Social implications: The chapter underscores the importance of resilient economic structures and policies in mitigating the broader social and economic impacts of crises. Originality and value: This chapter provides unique insights into economic resilience in the tourism sector during crises. Its comparative analysis across different European countries offers valuable perspectives for economists, policymakers, and researchers in understanding the dynamics of economic resilience and crisis management in tourism-dependent economies.

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