Агностичен подход за оценка на макроикономическите ефекти от инструментите на ЕС в България
An Agnostic Approach to Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of EU Instruments in Bulgaria

Author(s): Ivaylo Beev, Ivan Todorov
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Economy, National Economy, Business Economy / Management, EU-Accession / EU-DEvelopment
Published by: Университет за национално и световно стопанство (УНСС)
Keywords: AD-AS; EU funds; Expenditure multiplier; Sign and Zero restrictions
Summary/Abstract: The study analyzes one of the most discussed issues concerning EU cohesion policies and, in particular, the macroeconomic effects these policies have on the development of the Bulgarian economy. A central focus of the report is the quantification of the multiplier of expenditures co-financed by the EU. The results indicate that the crowding out effects and the lack of additionality among national policies limit the multiplier coefficient for each 1 BGN spent to around 0.3-0.4. This estimate is lower than the alternative macroeconometric approach (SIBILA 2.0) currently used by public institutions.

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