Poziom niepewności makroekonomicznej w Polsce
Level of macroeconomic uncertainty in Poland

Author(s): Jacek Pietrucha
Subject(s): Economy, National Economy, Business Economy / Management, Micro-Economics, Socio-Economic Research
Published by: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu
Keywords: uncertainty;text mining;text data
Summary/Abstract: The chapter reviews methods for measuring uncertainty and then measures the level of uncertainty in Poland. A new indicator based on data from an internet search engine was used to measure macroeconomic uncertainty. Indicators using data from consumer surveys were also calculated. Other measures were also used for comparative purposes, including those prepared by the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission. The information value of individual indicators is different, which is consistent with previous research. The macroeconomic uncertainty indicator using data from an Internet browser shows significant similarities to indicators calculated using survey data (GUS, ECB), especially those relating to households, with a significant difference in the period of inflation. These results should not be interpreted from the point of view of the weaknesses of individual research approaches - but rather as an indication that individual measures show partial knowledge about the multi-faceted and highly fuzzy phenomenon of uncertainty. An indicator based on data from an internet search engine shows interesting features and is worth continuing to work on.

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