ON THE PREDICTIVE NATURE OF CYCLES IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
ON THE PREDICTIVE NATURE OF CYCLES IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Author(s): Răzvan GRIGORAȘ
Subject(s): International relations/trade, Security and defense, Transformation Period (1990 - 2010)
Published by: Carol I National Defence University Publishing House
Keywords: long cycles; cyclic theories; Modelski; Organski; foresight;
Summary/Abstract: This paper is analyzing the predictive nature of cycles in International Politics and International Relations. We started from the assumption that, even though the cyclic theories are highly disputed, some patterns for predictive purposes could be recognized. The article makes a brief description of Modelski work and his power transition theory. Furthermore, one is being presented the possible evolutions in the ongoing cycle of power, based on some index projections: the soft power index (Soft Power 30, 2019), the global power index (International Futures, 2019), the military spending index (International Futures, 2019) and the technology power index (International Futures, 2019). The article extrapolates some implications for the bilateral relations between the USA and China.

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