National Security & Defence, № 001 (2000 - 01)
National Security & Defence, № 001 (2000 - 01)

Author(s): Anatoliy. S Grytsenko, Leonid Polyakov
Subject(s): Politics, Security and defense, Military policy
Published by: Український Центр економічних і політичних Досліджень імені Олександра Разумкова
Keywords: Military Reform;
Summary/Abstract: The publication of the analytical report «Military Reform in Ukraine: The Start, or Another False Start?» presents the second attempt by UCEPS experts to launch a broad public discussion of military reform. The firstattempt was made in May, 1996, when UCEPS, under the guidance of O.V. Razumkov, prepared the analytical report «Ukraine’s Armed Forces: the problems of reform and the present situation». The report came to the notice of experts, but the executive power was not ready to accept the proposals put forward by a non-governmental analytical centre at that point of time. There was no public discussion of the plans for military reform, and only a few suggested measures were implemented. As a result, the situation developed just as badly as we had predicted, and Ukraine was unable to avoid the forecasted mistakes. Shall we be cleverer this time? The Military organisation of Ukraine is in deep crisis. Today this does not pose a serious threat to Ukraine’s security, as large-scale military aggression seems unlikely in the next 57 years. However, if the present tendencies in society, national economy and attitude towards the military on the part of the state and general public persist, and the departmental approach to military reform overpowers this process, Ukraine may lose its sovereignty in the future. Its Military organisation will be unable to strongly defend Ukraine’s national interests against military threats. While substantiating the need for military reform, we consciously put internal factors in the first place: the Military organisation in its present structure and strength is too expensive for the Ukrainian economy. They say that there are no funds for reform. This is true, but if there were enough funds to maintain the Armed Forces, reform would not be necessary. UCEPS experts argue that Ukraine will not be able to ensure the adequate level of combat readiness and technical equipment of so numerous Armed Forces even in 2030 years; not only the defence budget but also the entire state budget will be insufficient for this purpose

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