Inflația în Republica Moldova: cauze, grupurile vulnerabile și recomandări de politici
Inflation in the Republic of Moldova: causes, vulnerable groups and policy recommendations

Author(s): Alexandru Fală
Subject(s): National Economy, Socio-Economic Research
Published by: EXPERT-GRUP Centrul Analitic Independent
Keywords: inflation in Moldowa; increasing prices; Covid19; Russian war against Ukraine;
Summary/Abstract: After in 2015, against the background of the banking crisis and the economic decline, the annual inflation approached the level of 10%, the Republic of Moldova entered a phase of moderate price increases. However, the year 2021 marked the end of this period. The rapid global economic recovery in the context of the promotion of stimulatory economic policies and the relaxation of anti-Covid measures in several states, the emergence of problems related to the operation of logistics chains, as well as severe climatic conditions have generated an explosion in the prices of energy, food products and building materials. As a result, the global economy was hit by a strong inflationary wave. The start of the war by Russia against Ukraine led to an additional disruption of international logistics chains and jeopardized the distribution of agri-food goods globally, which further intensified the trend of global price increases started in 2021. Republic of Moldova , likewise, was affected by international economic developments and collided with a rapid rise in prices. In new:2021 annual inflation exceeded the level of 10%, and already in apr:2022 the increase in prices reached 27.1% f-o-p. Moreover, for the year 2022 the NBM forecasts a high level of average annual inflation that will constitute 27.3%. In this context, the present study aimed to analyze in more detail the inflationary developments of the last period, identify the impact of price increases on poverty and formulate some policy recommendations aimed at mitigating the impact of these shocks.

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