№178: NATO and the Rise of China: How a “NATO-Pacific Forum” Could Augment Alliance Cohesion
№178: NATO and the Rise of China: How a “NATO-Pacific Forum” Could Augment Alliance Cohesion

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz
Contributor(s): Sławomir Dębski (Editor), Patrycja Sasnal (Editor), Wojciech Lorenz (Editor)
Subject(s): Politics, International relations/trade, Security and defense, Military policy, Politics and communication
Published by: PISM Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych
Keywords: China; NATO; Pacific-forum; Alliance Cohesion;
Summary/Abstract: With the great-power competition between China and the U.S. intensifying, political cohesion within NATO could be endangered. The risk of this may be further exacerbated by the wide effects of the coronavirus pandemic, which is likely to enforce cuts or shifts of priorities in U.S. defence spending, increasing pressure on the NATO allies to contribute more to transatlantic and even global security. China’s growing power and influence coupled with the declining U.S. ability to defend its interests and the rules-based order will probably dominate the American threat perception for the long term. If NATO is unable to ensure a politically visible response to China’s rise, it may become difficult for U.S. politicians to justify the growing investments in the Alliance’s deterrence of Russia, including the deployment of American troops to Europe. NATO could limit the risk of such a scenario by the establishment of a “NATO-Pacific Forum” based on existing partnerships with like-minded countries from the Indo-Pacific region.

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