TOWARD A NEW BELARUS: TRANSFORMATION FACTORS
TOWARD A NEW BELARUS: TRANSFORMATION FACTORS

Author(s): Sergey Krivecky, Nicolas Butylin, Andrey Tarasevich, Jakub Dynko, Vadim Mojeiko, Tadeo Julián
Contributor(s): Piotr Rudkouski (Editor)
Subject(s): Civil Society, Governance, Post-Communist Transformation
Published by: BISS - Беларускі інстытут стратэгічных даследаванняў
Summary/Abstract: The main purpose of this research is to identify factors that are relevant to political transformation in Belarus. There are four types of factors: (a) conducive to the collapse of an autocracy; (b) preventing an autocracy from collapse; (c) conducive to democratization; (d) impeding democratization. Let us emphasize that the collapse of autocracy is by no means tantamount to the emergence of stable democracy. The overthrow of an autocrat does not automatically lead to democracy, in fact, in most cases a new autocracy emerges from the ruins of an old one. The most recent history of Myanmar, Kyrgyzstan or Tunisia shows how problematic the post-authoritarian period is and how serious the risk is of the emergence of a new form of autocracy. This is why it is important to distinguish between factors of overcoming an autocracy and factors of democratization.

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