Series:BISS - ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ

SPECIFICATION OF THE CONCEPT OF "SOCIAL CONTRACT" APPLICABLE TO BELARUS

СПЕЦИФИКАЦИЯ ПОНЯТИЯ «СОЦИАЛЬНЫЙ КОНТРАКТ» ПРИМЕНИТЕЛЬНО К БЕЛАРУСИ

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Belarusian

The project of the Belarusian Institute of Strategic Studies "Identification and Specification of Social Contracts in Modern Belarus" is devoted to the study of this issue. This work is designed to formulate a theoretical framework and working hypotheses for subsequent analysis within the framework of the project, which will be based on the results of qualitative (focus group) and quantitative (national survey) studies.

HOW ISOLATED IS BELARUS? ANALYSIS OF CONSULAR STATISTICS OF THE COUNTRIES OF THE SHENGEN AGREEMENT IN 2007-2011

НАСКОЛЬКО ИЗОЛИРОВАНА БЕЛАРУСЬ? АНАЛИЗ КОНСУЛЬСКОЙ СТАТИСТИКИ СТРАН ШЕНГЕНСКОГО СОГЛАШЕНИЯ В 2007-2011 ГГ.

Author(s): Andrei Yeliseyeu / Language(s): Belarusian

In December 2007 a number of countries of the "new Europe", including all the western neighbors of Belarus, which are part of the EU (Latvia, Lithuania, Poland), entered the Schengen area. As a result, the departure of Belarusian citizens to the EU began to be accompanied by great difficulties: the visa fee increased many times, the procedures for submitting visa applications became more complicated. This, in turn, led to a sharp reduction in the number of visas issued by consulates of Schengen countries in Belarus in 2008. After several years since the expansion of the Schengen area, the following questions need to be studied: to what extent EU countries have overcome these negative visa consequences, and to what extent the EU visa policy contributes to the isolation of Belarusian society. In this work, the dynamics of changes in visa indicators of the consulates of Schengen countries in 2007-2011 are studied.

“We are very much interested in our presence in this part of the world…” (c) Belarus’s relations with the Arab World in 1992-2012 (case study)

“We are very much interested in our presence in this part of the world…” (c) Belarus’s relations with the Arab World in 1992-2012 (case study)

Author(s): Siarhei Bohdan / Language(s): English

The relationship with the Arab World has always been one of the pillars of Belarus’s foreign policy and has showed a positive yet controversial development trend. Belarus has repeatedly shifted ist priorities in the region, first away from Iraq and Egypt, and then from Syria, most recently, to the well-off states of the Persian Gulf. The economic results of cooperation are way too modest compared to those political, but Belarus can’t do without the globally acknowledged sources of investments and critical markets, such as the Arab countries. In the meantime, the main challenge that Belarus is facing in its efforts to promote these relations is the nature of its foreign relations — this country is not sufficiently prepared to work with foreign business; moreover, there are serious objective discrepancies in the priorities of the Belarusian state and its Arab partners. // Belarus has accumulated a wealth of experience in the engagement with the Arab World over these years and has minimized the area of cooperation, which can compromise the already tense relations with the West. In this context, the country is on its way to pursuing a neutral policy towards promoting economic contacts. At the same time, there is an obvious problem with offering the Arab side truly appealing projects, hence some shady deals and projects to meet narrow personal interests of the investor, such as the ‘Qatari Island’ in Belarus.

RETURN TO EDUCATION AND ASSESSMENT. HUMAN CAPITAL IN BELARUS

ОТДАЧА НА ОБРАЗОВАНИЕ И ОЦЕНКА ЧЕЛОВЕЧЕСКОГО КАПИТАЛА В БЕЛАРУСИ

Author(s): Aleksandr Chubrik,Gleb Shimanovich / Language(s): Belarusian

The analysis of indicators of the education system of Belarus from the point of view of the perspective of their use as an indicator of the level of human capital showed that most of them are not informative enough for this. Only the share of the population with higher education and the average duration of education can serve as indicators of the level of human capital, but they do not allow us to make a reliable conclusion about whether the level of human capital (which should be reflected in labor productivity) changes with the increase in the duration of education. The corresponding hypothesis is tested empirically by means of an analysis of the relationship between the level of education and labor income based on data from a sample survey of households on the standard of living (estimates of returns to education). The work shows that labor income can be considered as an approximation of labor productivity, since in the long-term period changes in wages in Belarus correspond to changes in labor productivity on average.

REASONS FOR REFUSAL OF ENTRY TO THE EU TO BELARUSIAN CITIZENS IN 2006 — 2011.

ПРИЧИНЫ ОТКАЗОВ ВО ВЪЕЗДЕ В ЕС ГРАЖДАНАМ БЕЛАРУСИ В 2006 — 2011 ГГ.

Author(s): Andrei Yeliseyeu / Language(s): Belarusian

In 2011 six thousand Belarusians were refused entry to the EU. By the total number of refusals to enter the European Union, Belarus is among the leading countries, following Albania, Ukraine, Russia and Serbia. As a result of the analysis of cases of refusal to enter the EU to citizens of Belarus in 2006-2011, the following conclusions were presentedf in this paper-

HUMAN CAPITAL: BELARUSIAN HIGHER EDUCATION IN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

ЧЕЛОВЕЧЕСКИЙ КАПИТАЛ: БЕЛАРУСКОЕ ВЫСШЕЕ ОБРАЗОВАНИЕ В МЕЖСТРАНОВОЙ ПЕРСПЕКТИВЕ

Author(s): Vladimir Dunaev / Language(s): Belarusian

Keywords: Higher education in Belarus;

This study is part of the BISS project: "Human capital in Belarus: sources of competitiveness and modernization". The purpose of the work is to approach an objective assessment of the quality of the Belarusian higher education system in an international perspective on the basis of a number of comparative indicators and indicators and, accordingly, to assess the quality of human capital reproduced by the national educational system. Based on this work and other works of the "human capital" series, BISS plans to prepare a policy paper with direct recommendations to the government. This overview paper considers such comparative indicators as: a) indicators of education, including by levels of the education system and specializations, b) architecture of the education system, c) costs of education, d) level of internationalization of education, including the export of educational services and the balance of student mobility.

HUMAN CAPITAL: PERSONNEL POTENTIAL OF BELARUSIAN SCIENCE

ЧЕЛОВЕЧЕСКИЙ КАПИТАЛ: КАДРОВЫЙ ПОТЕНЦИАЛ БЕЛОРУССКОЙ НАУКИ

Author(s): Andrey Lavrukhin / Language(s): Belarusian

This study is part of the BISS project "Human capital in Belarus: sources of competitiveness and modernization". The purpose of the work is based on a quantitative analysis of a number of key indicators - a) number of personnel, b) qualification structure, c) gender-age composition, d) distribution of personnel by types of organizations, e) territorial distribution of personnel - to estimate personnel potential - of Russian science. // On the basis of the works of the "human capital" cycle, BISS plans to prepare direct proposals to the government that will contribute to the improvement of the scientific and innovative potential of Belarus.

HUMAN CAPITAL: QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF PERSONNEL POTENTIAL OF BELARUSIAN SCIENCE

ЧЕЛОВЕЧЕСКИЙ КАПИТАЛ: КАЧЕСТВЕННЫЙ АНАЛИЗ КАДРОВОГО ПОТЕНЦИАЛА БЕЛОРУССКОЙ НАУКИ

Author(s): Andrey Shuman / Language(s): Belarusian

This study is part of the BISS project "Human Capital in Belarus: Sources of Competitiveness and Modernization". The purpose of the work is to estimate the personnel potential of Belarusian science based on qualitative analysis. The second part of this study is devoted to assessing the integration of Belarusian scientists into international science. On the basis of the works of the "human capital" cycle, BISS plans to prepare direct proposals to the government that will contribute to the improvement of the scientific and innovative potential of Belarus.

HUMAN CAPITAL: INTEGRATION OF BELARUS IN THE INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL AREA

ЧЕЛОВЕЧЕСКИЙ КАПИТАЛ: ИНТЕГРАЦИЯ БЕЛАРУСИ В МЕЖДУНАРОДНОЕ НАУЧНО-ТЕХНОЛОГИЧЕСКОЕ ПРОСТРАНСТВО

Author(s): Anna Pobol / Language(s): Belarusian

This study assesses the current degree of integration of Belarus into the world scientific and technological space based on the analysis of aggregated statistical data, primary patent data, review of analytical materials and interviews with experts. The author studied the institutional conditions and forms of international cooperation in the innovation sphere at the level of companies, organizations and the state; an assessment of the intensity of international flows of resources (in the form of patents) and results (technologies, high-tech and knowledge-intensive goods and services) of the innovation process was carried out; Barriers to Belarus' entry into the world scientific and technical space are discussed and suggestions are given to eliminate some of them.

HUMAN CAPITAL: INNOVATION SYSTEM OF BELARUS: CURRENT STATE, PROBLEMS AND DEVELOPMENT FACTORS

ЧЕЛОВЕЧЕСКИЙ КАПИТАЛ: ИННОВАЦИОННАЯ СИСТЕМА БЕЛАРУСИ: АКТУАЛЬНОЕ СОСТОЯНИЕ, ПРОБЛЕМЫ И ФАКТОРЫ РАЗВИТИЯ

Author(s): Andrey Lavrukhin / Language(s): Belarusian

This study is part of the BISS project "Human Capital in Belarus: Sources of Competitiveness and Modernization". The purpose of the work is to assess the current state of the Belarusian innovation system based on the analysis of a number of indicators, indicators and parameters and identify problems that prevent its effective functioning and dynamic development. Based on the work of "human capital", BISS plans to prepare direct proposals to the government that will improve the state of the innovative potential of Belarus.

«SOCIAL CONTRACT»: ENTREPRENEURS

«СОЦИАЛЬНЫЙ КОНТРАКТ»: ПРЕДПРИНИМАТЕЛИ

Author(s): Andrei Yeliseyeu / Language(s): Belarusian

The study is devoted to the study of changes in the "social contract" between the government and entrepreneurs, which occurred in 2009. During the period under review, the Belarusian government took significant steps to simplify the conditions for conducting business. the growth pushed him to reconsider the relationship with the private business and encourages him to liberalize the entrepreneurial environment. It's time to avoid negative political consequences of power and preserve the intention to maximally control the situation and single-handedly establish the rules of the game. The condition of the absence of a full-fledged economic liberalization, the activity of simplifying the conditions of conducting business has a contradictory character. In addition, the position of small and medium business has become significantly complicated in connection with the consequences of the economic crisis of 2011.

«SOCIAL CONTRACT»: EMPLOYEES

«СОЦИАЛЬНЫЙ КОНТРАКТ»: НАЕМНЫЕ РАБОТНИКИ

Author(s): Alexander Avtushko-Sikorsky / Language(s): Belarusian

This study is devoted to the study of changes in the "social contract" with the social group of employees in comparison with the situation in 2009. According to the results of the study of the "social contract" with employees, conducted by BISS in 2009, four clusters of the "social contract" were defined: independent paternalists, dependent paternalists, independent private parties, undetermined. Belonging to a specific cluster determined the depth of the respondent's involvement in the "social contract", and was also an indicator of the "orientation" of economic values of the respondents and was determined, first of all, by the "reserves" of human capital of a particular worker (level of education) and the subjective assessment of the liquidity of human capital (estimate ability to find a job outside the state sector, at another workplace, or abroad).

«SOCIAL CONTRACT»: YOUTH

«СОЦИАЛЬНЫЙ КОНТРАКТ»: МОЛОДЕЖЬ

Author(s): Elena Artemenko / Language(s): Belarusian

Keywords: Young generation in Belarus (2024);

Changes in the "social contract" in the youth group are considered in the work. It is based on the results of the study of "social contracts" initiated by BISS in 2009. and continued in 2013. // Comparison of research results of 2009. and 2013 shows that young people's attitudes towards the state are changing. In particular, in the terminology of the first study of "social contracts", young people use a double strategy. On the one hand, it reduces its dependence on the state, which can be considered an "exit" strategy: like wage workers, young people are inclined to the need to reduce the influence of the state in such aspects as personal well-being, employment, distribution. On the other hand, the youth remains not only "loyal", but also demonstrates better receptivity to general, ideological constructs proposed by the state. In other words, young people fully enjoy the benefits of paternalism, while reducing their own risks. // The attitude of young people to those benefits that are provided as part of the "social contract" is changing. Their expectations regarding benefits and support programs provided by the state are growing in many ways, which indicates that young people are more demanding and pragmatic. However, there is no reason to believe that the increase in expectations from the state can be the reason for the growth of protest potential.

«SOCIAL CONTRACT»: PENSIONEERS

«СОЦИАЛЬНЫЙ КОНТРАКТ»: ПЕНСИОНЕРЫ

Author(s): Alexander Avtushko-Sikorsky / Language(s): Belarusian

According to the results of the study of "social contracts" in 2009. the group of pensioners was defined as the most loyal to the authorities and satisfied with their financial situation. At the same time, the satisfaction of pensioners and the high level of loyalty to the authorities were not due to the high amount of pensions, but to the low level of expectations from the state and satisfaction with the stability of the set of social benefits provided to it. Pensioners were also identified as a group that constitutes the main electorate of the current government and is inert to the need for change due to copying many elements of the Soviet social security system in which they are used to living.

«SOCIAL CONTRACT»: A DUAL STRATEGY

«СОЦИАЛЬНЫЙ КОНТРАКТ»: ДВОЙНАЯ СТРАТЕГИЯ

Author(s): Alexei Pikulik,Elena Artemenko / Language(s): Belarusian

Keywords: social coherence in Belarus:

In 2009 The Belarusian Institute of Strategic Studies (BISS) reanimated the classic term "social contract" and used it as an analytical lens through which the authors of the study sought to demonstrate the rational foundations of socio-political stability in Belarus. The collective monograph "Social contracts in modern Belarus" created a complex conceptual triangle from the Hobbesian and Lockean vision of the relationship between citizens and the state ("social contract" or "social contract") with the political economy of authoritarian redistribution in Bueno de Mesquita (1989) and Hirshman's (1970). triad of strategies: "loyalty", "voice" and "exit". The conceptual "child" of such an unequal marriage — at least from the standpoint of the strict canons of social sciences — grew into a micro-theory of the stability of Belarusian authoritarianism. Moreover, to the probable surprise of the authors themselves, he made a bright career: he quickly became independent and confidently won his place in the field of Belarusian political analysis.

«REFORUM»: RESULTS

«РЕФОРУМ»: ИТОГИ

Author(s): Alexei Pikulik / Language(s): Russian

The "Reforum" project was implemented from January 2013 to February 2017 and became not only the main direction of BISS activity, but also one of the largest projects ever implemented by the Belarusian expert community as a whole. More than 90 local and international experts were involved in the project, who created 16 blocks of proposals to improve the "rules of the game" in various areas: from disability policy to innovative development of the country and from antimonopoly regulation to issues of inbound tourism. Precisely because of the significant thematic dispersion of the topics in the focus of "Reforum", the complexity of the project and the complexity of expert proposals (we are talking about more than 2000 pages of analysis and proposals), in this text we were forced to combine the conclusions about the project with the creation of a clear and understandable navigation system in the texts of our experts.

BELARUS AND KAZAKHSTAN: Regime Durability, Claims for Legitimacy and external Influence

BELARUS AND KAZAKHSTAN: Regime Durability, Claims for Legitimacy and external Influence

Author(s): Luka Jorbenadze / Language(s): English

MAIN THESES: (a) Belarus shares some features of non-competitive authoritarian regimes but is closer to being a competitive authoritarian regime. // (b) The cult of personality is much less present in Belarus, than in Kazakhstan. // (c) Availability of huge sources of income not directly connected to economic activity of the population of the country is one of the major enablers of the longevity of both regimes. // (d) Though Kazakhstan is not less but rather more authoritarian than Belarus, it has never faced similar pressure from the EU as the one applied to Lukashenka’s regime // (e) Attempts at democratization by the EU have been almost absent in Kazakhstan and largely unsuccessful in Belarus.

BELARUS BETWEEN NATO AND CSTO. LAW AND GEOPOLITICS

BELARUS BETWEEN NATO AND CSTO. LAW AND GEOPOLITICS

Author(s): Alisiya Ivanova / Language(s): English

KEY POINTS: Arms build-up near both the western and the eastern borders of Belarus intensifies the tension in the region and creates a state of military danger for the country. // Belarus adheres to a rather cautious approach to military cooperation with Russia, although legislatively this cooperation is stated to be a priority. // Official Minsk does not perceive NATO as a direct threat, but does not seek to expand the scope of cooperation or to convert it to practical one. // The US and NATO member states are also interested in the “soft” nature of cooperation with Belarus, with a view not to provoke aggression from Russia. // The main way to maintain security in the region is to strengthen the independence and sovereignty of Belarus, including increasing the military potential of the national armed forces.

WHY BELARUS WOULD NOT BE CAPABLE OF REPEATING THE SOUTH KOREAN PATH AND FALL INTO A DEVELOPMENTAL TRAP?

WHY BELARUS WOULD NOT BE CAPABLE OF REPEATING THE SOUTH KOREAN PATH AND FALL INTO A DEVELOPMENTAL TRAP?

Author(s): Alexei Pikulik / Language(s): English

This working paper paves the way to one of the BISS new strategic areas of research: modernization and institutional change. From September 2012 BISS will open up the discussion of the topics, strategic to the country's developments: institutional upgrades, developmental traps, sequence of reforming, perspectives of modernization without Westernization, the influence of global rules on domestic institution-building (i.e. market-making, social development), etc. This working paper is a first draft and may be complemented or revised; it contains only tentative conclusions. As a think-tank BISS is very much interested in your feedback on what we do, for we believe that only inclusive processes, feedback, and debates are truly valuable.

MENTAL DEMOCRATIZATION. Changes in the sphere of values of Belarusians

МЕНТАЛЬНАЯ ДЕМОКРАТИЗАЦИЯ. Изменения в сфере ценностей белорусов

Author(s): Peter Rudkovsky / Language(s): Belarusian

This report is an attempt to summarize the changes in the sphere of values of Belarusians over the last decade. We will pay special attention to those processes that are related to the prospects of democratization of Belarus. The finalization of the report took place at the moment when Russia openly attacked Ukraine, and the regime of Alexander Lukashenko, isolated at the international level and heavily dependent on the Kremlin, is drawing Belarus into this war. It is difficult to unambiguously predict what consequences this will have for Belarus and the political system created by Lukashenko. In this situation, the sphere of values deserves even more close attention. Since values are fixed in cognitive structures, they are relatively stable. They will play a significant role in the subsequent stages of the political crisis, which will be aggravated by the regime's participation in the war against Ukraine.