MEGA - Moldova Economic Growth Analysis № 17 / 2017
MEGA - Moldova Economic Growth Analysis № 17 / 2017

Author(s): Adrian Lupuşor, Alexandru Fală, Dumitru Pîntea, Iurie Morcotîlo, Vadim Gumene
Subject(s): National Economy, Economic policy
Published by: EXPERT-GRUP Centrul Analitic Independent
Summary/Abstract: The economic year of 2017 fell short of expectations: Gross Domestic Product felt under the pessimistic scenario of our forecast made early in the year (3.0% – 4.0%). The initial GDP growth forecast of 6% did not materialize due to unfavorable weather this spring that undermined the harvest; high uncertainty among businesses who were reluctant to resume the crediting, private investments and industrial activity; and the slow pace of reforms: about half of the actions stated in the Roadmap as priority reforms of the Government and Parliament were not implemented2. On this background, the economic growth of 2017 was based on a slight revival in consumption as a result of increased remittances after two years of decline, and higher public investments after the external funding was unblocked. If the influence of these two factors is excluded, as by definition they are temporary due to the low basis of comparison, the economy could be in recession this year. Hence, in 2017 the economic growth was both slow, less than expected, and not sustainable, which generates many concerns for 2018.

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