№02 Sliding toward the Precipice: Europe’s Bosnia Policy.
№02 DPC POLICY BRIEFS: Sliding toward the Precipice: Europe’s Bosnia Policy.

Author(s): Kurt Bassuener, James Lyon, Eric Witte
Subject(s): Politics, Governance, Government/Political systems, International relations/trade
Published by: DPC Democratization Policy Council e.V.
Keywords: BiH; constitution; Dayton accords; EU; Milorad Dodik; Haris Silajdžić;
Summary/Abstract: Over the past three years, Bosnia’s political environment has noticeably worsened: the current trajectory could lead to attempts at secession and renewed conflict. Among Bosnians, perceived threats to personal safety and livelihood have risen to new post-war heights as international listlessness has permitted Bosnian politicians to believe they can pursue wartime objectives without challenge. For years the European Union has claimed that reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina is heading in the right direction, albeit slowly. EU officials point to the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) signed on 16 June 2008 as evidence of progress.But Bosnia has not only stagnated over the past three years – it has been sliding backwards at an accelerating pace. To be sure, Bosnia is not at the brink of war, but it has slid well down the slope in that direction. As the situation deteriorates, the cost of international engagement to end the threat and place the country on stable footing will climb, perhaps exponentially. The November 10 meeting of EU foreign, development and defence ministers (GAERC) provides an opportunity to take the first steps toward checking this emerging crisis. In the short term the EU should bolster international capacity to deter anti-Dayton actions by nationalist politicians that could tip Bosnia into the abyss. Then, in order to move Bosnia beyond crisis management, they should signal that fundamental constitutional reform will be the focal point of international involvement in the EU’s forthcoming mission, which will join the EUSR with the EC Delegation. This would set the stage for action by the broader Peace Implementation Council (PIC), the international steering board for OHR that meets later in the month.

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