Tajikistan: ‘Revolutionary Situation or a Resilient State?
Tajikistan: ‘Revolutionary Situation or a Resilient State?

Author(s): Anna Matveeva
Subject(s): Governance, Government/Political systems, Security and defense, Politics and society, Social development, Sociology of Politics
Published by: CEPS Centre for European Policy Studies
Keywords: Tajikistan; regime; security and defense; social stability and growth;
Summary/Abstract: Since 2008, after a period of relative growth and social stability, the situation in Tajikistan has been steadily deteriorating, leading to increased speculation that the country could emerge as a failing state. Given its proximity to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the role it plays in the Northern Distribution Network – a line that funnels military supplies from Europe to NATO ISAF troops in Afghanistan – the ramifications of potential instability in Tajikistan would resonate beyond the country. The current briefing assesses to what extent such danger is in fact real by outlining developments in the key areas of economy and security, and examining the regime’s capacity to cope with emerging challenges. The briefing concludes with recommendations for the EU and an outlook for future.

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