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Series:EUCAM - Policy Brief

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Beyond the Border Management Programme for Central Asia (BOMCA)
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Beyond the Border Management Programme for Central Asia (BOMCA)

Author(s): George Gavrilis / Language(s): English

In 2002, Romano Prodi, then President of the European Commission, proudly announced a plan to create a unified border guard for the European Union. Police from various member states would serve together under the EU flag to protect their common external borders. The idea sought to promote a common European identity and to assuage continent-wide fears that the EU’s borders were hopelessly under siege. “We would like to reassure our citizens,” Prodi declared, “that we will protect our borders against terrorism, organised crime and uncontrolled immigration.” While a common EU border guard has yet to see the light of day, a common EU export strategy has emerged in border management assistance. Such assistance aims to help recipient states strike a healthy balance between open and secure borders. This is not entirely altruistic.

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Central Asia and the Global Economic Crisis
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Central Asia and the Global Economic Crisis

Author(s): Richard Pomfret / Language(s): English

In 2007 the EU published a Strategy for a New Partnership with Central Asia. In its initial stages the EU focused on developing new forums for dialogue with the Central Asian countries, and received some criticism for inadequate substantive actions. This Policy Brief argues that the current global economic crisis does not alter the priorities of the EU Strategy, but it does require the EU to stick to existing obligations and also provides an opportunity for fresh initiatives to better achieve the Strategy’s fundamental goals. A striking feature of the five Central Asian countries’ economic strategies is that they followed divergent paths after becoming independent in 1991. Despite strong similarities in culture, history and economic structure, their transitions from Soviet central planning ranged from the most rapidly liberalising (the Kyrgyz Republic) to the most non-reforming (Turkmenistan) of all former Soviet republics.

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Civil Society Cornered in Central Asia
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Civil Society Cornered in Central Asia

Author(s): Tinatin Tsertsvadze / Language(s): English

Civil society and independent voices in Central Asia are increasingly under pressure from the authorities. Repression has intensified over the past five years, against a backdrop of a decline in fundamental freedoms – of expression, association and assembly – and an increase in crackdowns on critical independent voices globally. More and more, they face restrictions imposed in the name of law and order, and their work is stigmatised and criminalised. There is a risk that earlier small gains be lost in Central Asia, with social, political and economic consequences. Civil society is here understood as independent from state or business influence, including broad groups such as non-governmental organisations (NGOs), the church, trade unions, individual activists, human rights defenders, and bloggers, among others.

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Democracy in Central Asia: Sowing in Unfertile Fields?
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Democracy in Central Asia: Sowing in Unfertile Fields?

Author(s): Jos Boonstra / Language(s): English

Central Asia is one of the most repressive regions in the world. Compared with the two other former-Soviet regions of Eastern Europe (Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine) and the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia), Central Asia shows the least inclination towards democratisation. Although the five Central Asian republics are very different from each other none can be labelled a democracy or even claim to have made substantial progress towards democratic practices. The European Union (EU) in its 2007 Strategy for Central Asia set out to promote democracy, human rights, rule of law and good governance. The EU is active in urging Central Asian regimes to respect human rights, has set up a regional Rule of Law Initiative and runs several projects focusing on good governance, but so far has not been able to advance in any substantial way on several other aspects of democratisation, such as parliamentary reform or capacity-building for political parties.

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Eastern Europe and Central Asia
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Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Author(s): Natalia Shapovalova / Language(s): English

Relations between Central Asia and the post-Soviet countries of Eastern Europe have largely been developed in the shadow of Russia. Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine have established ties through integration projects in the post-Soviet space that are led by Russia, such as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and other initiatives. But against this, bilateral and multilateral relations between CIS countries have often been aimed at counterbalancing Russia’s dominance. GUUAM, for example, was an alliance between Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova formed in 1999; after the departure of Uzbekistan in 2005, it became known as GUAM. The organisation was conceived as an alternative cooperation project, and Moscow perceived it to be anti-Russian.

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EU Human Rights and Democratisation Assistance to Central Asia: In Need of Further Reform
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EU Human Rights and Democratisation Assistance to Central Asia: In Need of Further Reform

Author(s): Vera Axyonova / Language(s): English

One of the declared priorities of the European Union (EU) in Central Asia is the strengthening of good governance, rule of law, human rights and democratisation. Given the EU’s limited financial resources and leverage in the region, and the unfavourable domestic conditions for democratisation, one can hardly expect European efforts to result in a significant liberalisation of Central Asian political regimes. Yet, EU assistance to local civil society can enhance social participation, which provides a foundation for a bottom-up democratisation process. In these terms, the EU thematic programmes – the Non-State Actors and Local Authorities in Development (NSA/LA), and the European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights (EIDHR) – primarily operating in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are of particular relevance. Uzbekistan continues to benefit from the Institution Building and Partnership Programme (IBPP); a funding mechanism that is no longer active in other countries. However, Turkmenistan is practically excluded from all these initiatives.

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EU-US Cooperation in Central Asia: Parallel Lines Meet in Infinity?
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EU-US Cooperation in Central Asia: Parallel Lines Meet in Infinity?

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Marlène Laruelle / Language(s): English

The European Union (EU) and the United States (U.S.) have many shared interests in Central Asia, but follow different approaches. The main points of convergence are the pursuit of human rights standards, democratic development, stability and security, and the broader economic and social development of the Central Asian states. Naturally, there are also divergences, springing above all from the U.S.’s and the EU’s differing geopolitical positioning throughout the world. While the U.S. focuses largely on hard security, the EU mostly seeks to promote its security objectives through longer-term development approaches. Furthermore, each has its own trade interests in the region, although these do not seem to conflict at large.

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Facing the Challenges of Separatism: The EU, Central Asia and the Uyghur Issue
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Facing the Challenges of Separatism: The EU, Central Asia and the Uyghur Issue

Author(s): Sébastien Peyrouse / Language(s): English

During 2008, the move to grant Kosovo independence, the Russo-Georgian war and the revival of tensions in Xinjiang and Tibet moved the question of separatism once again to the top of the international agenda. In each of the three cases, the contradictory nature of issues to do with the inviolability of borders and a people’s right to self-determination, which marked European history in the first half of the 20th century and were brought to the surface with the break-up of the Communist federations (the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia), were once again raised. The re-emergence of the principle of secession and the support offered to particular regions seeking independence from powerful states represents a considerable new challenge in the international system and one that could have a particular resonance in Eurasia. Although since independence, all post-Soviet states have shared an interest in clamping down on separatist claims, this situation has suddenly changed with the Russian Duma’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent.

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Human Security in Central Asia: Can the EU Help out?
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Human Security in Central Asia: Can the EU Help out?

Author(s): Sébastien Peyrouse / Language(s): English

Among the many challenges facing the Central Asian states, security is one of the most pressing concerns. Yet the way these states discuss the issue is significantly affected by external actors’ approaches to security in the region. Russia and China are the two most influential countries in shaping the security strategies of the Central Asian governments, through bilateral relations and multilateral organisations such as the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation) and the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation). However, this does not mean that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are “victims” of Russian and Chinese authoritarian pressure, without which they would take a more democratic approach. Even Russian influence, although much stronger in this area than China’s, cannot by itself explain the security decisions of the Central Asian regimes, as these decisions are chiefly driven by domestic issues and local political culture.

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Into EurAsia. Monitoring the EU’s Central Asia Strategy. Executive Summary and Recommendations
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Into EurAsia. Monitoring the EU’s Central Asia Strategy. Executive Summary and Recommendations

Author(s): Michael Emerson,Jos Boonstra / Language(s): English

The EU’s Central Asia strategy was introduced in 2007 in order to upgrade the EU’s cooperation with the five states of the region. The political context at that time was dominated by concerns in the EU over energy security and the war in Afghanistan. The strategy took a wide and comprehensive approach however, identifying a considerable number of priority actions (political dialogue, human rights and the rule of law, education, economic development, energy and transport links, environmental sustainability and water, common threats such as drug trafficking, etc). This approach has led to engagement in many dialogue procedures and projects. While there has been an undoubted increase in the level of activity, the extensiveness of the agenda and relatively low level of resources committed to the strategy entails a risk that the whole process may not have real impact and credibility.

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Involving Central Asia in Afghanistan’s Future – What can Europe do?
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Involving Central Asia in Afghanistan’s Future – What can Europe do?

Author(s): Marlène Laruelle / Language(s): English

EU policy on Central Asia is unclear about the relationship between Afghanistan and Central Asia. The June 2010 Joint EU Council and Commission Implementation Report of the EU Strategy for Central Asia argues that cooperation in the area of security is of growing importance in EU-Central Asia relations, especially in light of developments in Afghanistan over the past few years. Even if security is among the Strategy’s seven key areas of engagement, the arguments put forward are vague: the Implementation Report states that “Afghanistan is a security issue of particular common concern and there is scope for more focused dialogue and cooperation between Central Asian countries and the EU”; and “there is a need to integrate the growing link between Central Asia and the wider region into EUCentral Asian cooperation.” The Central Asia-Afghanistan relationship is therefore evoked only to recall that the states of Central Asia are directly threatened by the insecurity emanating from Afghanistan.

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Is Kazakhstan’s Rising Star Fading?
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Is Kazakhstan’s Rising Star Fading?

Author(s): Marlène Laruelle / Language(s): English

Kazakhstan’s economic prosperity and active foreign policy have given it increasing regional power status. Kazakhstan has stood out internationally as a mediator in conflicts, chair of international fora and partner to key international actors, but its ‘golden decade’ of economic growth has ended. The country faced a serious economic crisis in 2014, and registered only slightly over 1 per cent GDP growth in 2015 and 2016. Even though growth improved to approximately 3.5 per cent in 2017, due to higher oil prices and production, figures are likely to remain lower than pre-2014. In January 2017, at the initiative of ageing President Nursultan Nazarbayev, parliament approved constitutional reforms to strengthen its role, including the transfer of some presidential functions, in an effort to decentralise power.

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Is the EU-Central Asia Strategy Running Out of Steam?
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Is the EU-Central Asia Strategy Running Out of Steam?

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Michael Denison / Language(s): English

The European Union’s Strategy for a New Partnership with Central Asia is approaching its fourth year of implementation. In that time the EU has placed its relationship with Central Asia on a more structured footing through the establishment of several formal initiatives designed to support seven engagement priorities in the region. The EU Development Cooperation Instrument (DCI) has allocated €321 million to support the Strategy between 2011 and 2013. Direct contacts between European officials and political leaders from the region, conducted in both Europe and Central Asia, are at unprecedented levels. Although progress has been made in building dialogue and in furthering engagement in certain defined areas, the limitations of the strategy are increasingly obvious.

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Kazakhstan and the South Caucasus Corridor in the Wake of the Georgia-Russia War
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Kazakhstan and the South Caucasus Corridor in the Wake of the Georgia-Russia War

Author(s): Nargis Kassenova / Language(s): English

The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline links Azerbaijan and Georgia to European energy markets, establishing the basis for their geopolitical reorientation of recent years. These two countries also created the South Caucasus transit corridor for resourcerich Central Asian states. Kazakhstan has slowly but surely worked to develop this westbound route for its oil exports. It has been building port facilities on its side of the Caspian, bought tanker ships and acquired a terminal in Georgia. The August war between Georgia and Russia revealed the insecurity of transit through Georgia and reminded us of the fragile stability of the region of South Caucasus. It seemed to put Kazakhstan’s plans of ’going west’ in jeopardy. However, developments that took place this autumn show that Astana is not ready to give up the South Caucasus route, which is highly important for commercial and geopolitical reasons.

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Kyrgyzstan: Balancing on the Verge of Stability
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Kyrgyzstan: Balancing on the Verge of Stability

Author(s): Anna Matveeva / Language(s): English

In Kyrgyzstan the risk of instability remains. The country practices genuine elections and power-sharing, is open to international engagement, and promotes basic rights such as free speech. In 2010 Kyrgyzstan adopted a new Constitution, moving away from a super-presidential model to a system in which the president and the parliament share power more equally. Its economic performance is positive: the IMF assessed that the economy recovered quickly due to improved security and political stability, better-than-expected agricultural performance and a timely fiscal stimulus. However, it is the only ex-Soviet state to undergo two turbulent regime changes – the so called ‘Tulip-1’and ‘Tulip-2’ revolutions of 2005 and 2010 – and is affected by a strong regional split between the North and the South, one of the factors behind both ‘revolutions’. This makes Kyrgyzstan a country of paradoxes where it mixes positive developments with severe threats to its stability. The country is split geographically into the North and the South, each with a distinct identity. The first president, Akayev (until 2005), was from the North, and after his removal power shifted to the South, where Kurmanbek Bakiyev originated from (until April 2010).

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Mongolia’s Quest for Third Neighbours: Why the European Union?
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Mongolia’s Quest for Third Neighbours: Why the European Union?

Author(s): Jargalsaikhan Mendee / Language(s): English

Mongolia is beginning to attract more interest from European organisations and institutions. A Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) between Mongolia and the European Union is expected to be concluded soon, and in March 2012, NATO agreed an Individual Partnership and Cooperation Program (IPCP) with Mongolia. In October 2011, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel took time out from dealing with the financial crisis to visit the country, and the OSCE Secretary General visited in June 2012 to discuss Mongolia’s request to become a fully participating member of the organisation.

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OSCE Police Reform Programmes in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan: Past Constraints and Future Opportunities
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OSCE Police Reform Programmes in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan: Past Constraints and Future Opportunities

Author(s): Erica Marat / Language(s): English

Most former Soviet republics began to consider police reform in the 2000s, over a decade after the Soviet Union’s collapse. By then, the police in the successor states had become one of the most corrupt government agencies, with reputations for serving the needs of political elites and criminal leaders rather than the public. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were the first Central Asian countries to attempt to reform their police. Leaders from both governments invited the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the United States and the European Union to assist them in their efforts. In both countries, the reform process has been slow and has consistently failed to meet the expectations of donor organisations and of members of civil society. Meanwhile, law enforcement agencies have become even more corrupt and aggressive toward the population.

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Reconsidering EU Education Assistance to Central Asia
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Reconsidering EU Education Assistance to Central Asia

Author(s): Sébastien Peyrouse / Language(s): English

Central Asia’s educational systems have been deteriorating since the collapse of the Soviet Union. All five Central Asian republics, to varying degrees, lack high-quality, effective education. Bad governance and pervasive corruption have added to the increasing disconnect between students’ training and employers’ needs. This is hindering the region’s human development and long-term economic stability. Education is a key area of cooperation between the European Union (EU) and Central Asia. Tertiary education has been the main focus of EU support to promote large-scale systemic reform to make Central Asian higher education systems compatible with the Bologna Process (aimed at inter-governmental cooperation on higher education in Europe in the broadest sense). However, most EU-proposed reforms have not been implemented by local governments.

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Reviewing the EU’s Approach to Central Asia
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Reviewing the EU’s Approach to Central Asia

Author(s): Jos Boonstra / Language(s): English

The European Union’s (EU) Strategy for Central Asia is being reviewed for the fourth time. Over the last eight years, the EU has been successful in creating several institutionalised mechanisms for working and bolstering relations with Central Asian governments, including an increased presence on the ground. But the overall picture of the EU’s engagement in Central Asia is one of limited to no impact. The region has become more unstable; democracy is seen by the regimes as a threat to their survival; and human rights have been backsliding. Whereas some global and regional actors have laid out a broader policy vision for Central Asia – ‘New Silk Road’ by the United States (US), ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ by China – the EU devised a detailed written strategy in 2007 outlining seven priorities ranging from democracy promotion to education and from security to energy and trade interests.

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Strategic Water Resources in Central Asia: In Search of a New International Legal Order
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Strategic Water Resources in Central Asia: In Search of a New International Legal Order

Author(s): Stephen Hodgson / Language(s): English

The allocation and use of the water resources of Central Asia is one of the most difficult issues to arise out of the break-up of the Soviet Union. In outline the question is simple: how should the waters of the great Central Asian rivers, the Syr Darya and Amu Darya, be used? To generate much-needed hydropower electricity in the mountainous countries in which they rise? Or for irrigation in the energy-rich downstream countries? Added into the mix is the fact that due largely to over-use for irrigation, both rivers flow (notionally, at least) into the depleted wastes of the environmental disaster that is the Aral Sea. In Soviet times the situation was simple: major decisions were made by Moscow. Independence changed that. Now, beyond the issue of how the existing Soviet-era infrastructure should be operated (for irrigation or hydropower), tensions are rising over the proposed construction of significant new hydropower projects in the upstream countries. Indeed water issues are seen to pose a significant threat to regional security. In February 2009 Uzbekistan’s President Karimov told his cabinet that country’s water was under threat and invoked the need to safeguard the interests of future generations of Uzbeks.

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