Series:EUCAM - Policy Brief

The EU Strategy for Central Asia @ Year One

The EU Strategy for Central Asia @ Year One

Author(s): Neil Melvin,Jos Boonstra / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU and Centrasl Asia; former Soviet Union; Black Sea Synergy;

On the 20th of July 2007, the Council of the European Union adopted “The EU and Central Asia: Strategy for a New Partnership”. The Strategy signalled the EU’s ambition to initiate a fundamental shift in its relations with Central Asia through, for the first time, linking general political goals to a concrete working prospectus in the region. The Strategy also formed a key element of the external relations agenda of the German Presidency of the EU in the first half of 2007 and was integral to Berlin’s wider push to upgrade Europe’s engagement with the countries of the former Soviet Union (notably through initiatives to strengthen the European Neighbourhood Policy and the Black Sea Synergy) within the framework of what some observers called a new ‘Ostpolitik’. The Strategy sets itself a high bar for achievement, identifying a broad range of priorities for the future relationship between the EU and the states of region. One year on from the adoption of the Strategy, the EU has made important progress in strengthening political contacts with Central Asia, but the Strategy has yet to deliver on ist promise to foster a broad range of engagements. Moreover, considerable questions remain about the political direction of the EU’s approach to Central Asia and about the methods that have been employed to promote the Strategy. With the war in Georgia in the summer of 2008 promoting a rethink of the Union’s approach to Russia, Ukraine and the South Caucasus, there is also a strong case for revisiting the EU Strategy for Central Asia and to consider ways to make Europe’s contacts more effective with the key countries of the region.

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The ‘Food-Energy-Water’ Nexus in Central Asia: Regional Implications of and the International Response to the Crises in Tajikistan

The ‘Food-Energy-Water’ Nexus in Central Asia: Regional Implications of and the International Response to the Crises in Tajikistan

Author(s): Matteo Fumagalli / Language(s): English

Keywords: Central Asia; Tajikistan crisis; food-energy-water; Europe's energy security; energy supplies; food crisis; water; gas; oil;

Most of the spotlight on Central Asia continues to be on its potential role in guaranteeing Europe’s energy security by helping to diversify its energy supplies. This legitimate although increasingly exclusive focus risks overshadowing one of the most urgent issues that the region’s populations face: food security. Food security refers here to both physical and economical access to food and food supplies. To be sure, food security in Central Asia is not to be understood as a standalone challenge. The current food crisis in the region cannot be understood unless located in the broader nexus that encompasses food, water and, indeed, energy (gas and oil). It is only by understanding how the three dimensions of this nexus are entangled that a long-term, concerted and sustained strategy can be developed and applied.

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Kazakhstan and the South Caucasus Corridor in the Wake of the Georgia-Russia War

Kazakhstan and the South Caucasus Corridor in the Wake of the Georgia-Russia War

Author(s): Nargis Kassenova / Language(s): English

Keywords: European energy market; oil pipe line; geopolitics; South Caucasus transit corridor; Kazakhstan; Georgia; Georgia-Russia War;

The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline links Azerbaijan and Georgia to European energy markets, establishing the basis for their geopolitical reorientation of recent years. These two countries also created the South Caucasus transit corridor for resourcerich Central Asian states. Kazakhstan has slowly but surely worked to develop this westbound route for its oil exports. It has been building port facilities on its side of the Caspian, bought tanker ships and acquired a terminal in Georgia. The August war between Georgia and Russia revealed the insecurity of transit through Georgia and reminded us of the fragile stability of the region of South Caucasus. It seemed to put Kazakhstan’s plans of ’going west’ in jeopardy. However, developments that took place this autumn show that Astana is not ready to give up the South Caucasus route, which is highly important for commercial and geopolitical reasons.

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Facing the Challenges of Separatism: The EU, Central Asia and the Uyghur Issue

Facing the Challenges of Separatism: The EU, Central Asia and the Uyghur Issue

Author(s): Sébastien Peyrouse / Language(s): English

Keywords: Separatism; European Union; Central Asia; Uyghur issue; regions seeking independence; post-Soviet states;

During 2008, the move to grant Kosovo independence, the Russo-Georgian war and the revival of tensions in Xinjiang and Tibet moved the question of separatism once again to the top of the international agenda. In each of the three cases, the contradictory nature of issues to do with the inviolability of borders and a people’s right to self-determination, which marked European history in the first half of the 20th century and were brought to the surface with the break-up of the Communist federations (the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia), were once again raised. The re-emergence of the principle of secession and the support offered to particular regions seeking independence from powerful states represents a considerable new challenge in the international system and one that could have a particular resonance in Eurasia. Although since independence, all post-Soviet states have shared an interest in clamping down on separatist claims, this situation has suddenly changed with the Russian Duma’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent.

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The EU’s Approach to the Development of Mass Media in Central Asia

The EU’s Approach to the Development of Mass Media in Central Asia

Author(s): Gulnura Toralieva / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; Central Asia; mass media; human rights; rule of law; democracy; freedom of speech; independent media; journalism;

In spite of positive developments in terms of human rights, the rule of law and democratisation in Central Asia following the adoption of the European Union (EU) Strategy in June 2007, the state of the mass media continues to deteriorate in all five countries in the region. The dialogue on human rights initiated by the EU mostly focuses on the reform of the judicial and correctional systems, as well as on the rights of disenfranchised segments of the population, all of which is unarguably crucial for further democratisation in Central Asian states. However, restrictions on freedom of speech through the moral, physical and economic coercion of journalists, and the inexorably shrinking circle of independent media, have so far failed to attract the attention of the EU.

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Central Asia and the Global Economic Crisis

Central Asia and the Global Economic Crisis

Author(s): Richard Pomfret / Language(s): English

Keywords: Central Asia; global economic crisis; European Union; EU Strategy; economic development; international trade;

In 2007 the EU published a Strategy for a New Partnership with Central Asia. In its initial stages the EU focused on developing new forums for dialogue with the Central Asian countries, and received some criticism for inadequate substantive actions. This Policy Brief argues that the current global economic crisis does not alter the priorities of the EU Strategy, but it does require the EU to stick to existing obligations and also provides an opportunity for fresh initiatives to better achieve the Strategy’s fundamental goals. A striking feature of the five Central Asian countries’ economic strategies is that they followed divergent paths after becoming independent in 1991. Despite strong similarities in culture, history and economic structure, their transitions from Soviet central planning ranged from the most rapidly liberalising (the Kyrgyz Republic) to the most non-reforming (Turkmenistan) of all former Soviet republics.

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The EU and Uzbekistan: Short-Term Interests versus Long-Term Engagement

The EU and Uzbekistan: Short-Term Interests versus Long-Term Engagement

Author(s): Sukhrobjon Ismailov,Jarabik Balazs / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; Uzbekistan; democratization; politics; governance; poverty; post-Soviet transition;

After fifteen years of independence, there are practically no democratic institutions in place in Uzbekistan. Only a few individuals are struggling to set up any viable alternative. The prevailing Soviet mentality in the country is set against a traditional, archaic group/family-driven political landscape. The lack of freedom has become an enormous obstacle to good governance. In particular, the lack of freedom of religion has been serving as a catalyst for radical Islamisation, due to the complete absence of political space in the country. This was aggravated by dramatic declines in income and employment and the growing poverty during the post-Soviet transition to a market economy. All of this has led to a loss of the stability and security that people previously enjoyed. This mix of economic and political stress is further exacerbated by the ailing regime of Islam Karimov – the only Uzbek establishment known by most Uzbek citizens. Alongside the repressive ruling methods and the increasingly inward-looking focus of the political elite, Karimov’s age has raised the single most important ‘what next?’ question.

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The EU’s Rule of Law Initiative in Central Asia

The EU’s Rule of Law Initiative in Central Asia

Author(s): Rico Isaacs / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; Central Asia; law initiative; rule of law; EU regional projects; modernization of legal sector; transitional states;

The EU’s Rule of Law Initiative is one of three EU regional projects in Central Asia, first set out in the EU’s Central Asia Strategy in 2007, as a flagship engagement aimed at linking political priorities to practical assistance in the region. The Initiative is intended, on the part of the EU and member states, “to support on-going modernisation of the legal sector, as part of a more comprehensive strategy to foster and consolidate stability, prosperity and respect for human rights in Central Asian countries”. Rule of Law is now being viewed as a key policy goal amongst international development actors. Economic growth, political modernisation and the ability to attract foreign investment hinges, in part, on strengthening rule of law in transitional states. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have developed legal systems that contain some newly introduced elements of Western law, residual vestiges of the Soviet legal system and elements of traditional practices and customs.

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The EU Strategy for Central Asia Says ‘Security’. Does this Include Security Sector Reform?

The EU Strategy for Central Asia Says ‘Security’. Does this Include Security Sector Reform?

Author(s): Jos Boonstra / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; Central Asia; EU Strategy; security; security sector reform; crime prevention; trans-national crimes;

Central Asia faces a broad range of security challenges. Due to the region’s position at the crossroads between Russia, China, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran and the Caspian Sea it is confronted with a range of trans-national issues such as drug trafficking, human trafficking, organised crime and terrorism. Central Asia also encounters specific regional threats including scarcity of water resources for generating power and irrigation purposes, which is currently causing tension. On a national level the five Central Asian republics face the threat of instability due to bad governance and the harsh impact of the economic crisis.

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Beyond the Border Management Programme for Central Asia (BOMCA)

Beyond the Border Management Programme for Central Asia (BOMCA)

Author(s): George Gavrilis / Language(s): English

Keywords: Border Management Programme; Central Asia; European Union; EU borders; border protection;

In 2002, Romano Prodi, then President of the European Commission, proudly announced a plan to create a unified border guard for the European Union. Police from various member states would serve together under the EU flag to protect their common external borders. The idea sought to promote a common European identity and to assuage continent-wide fears that the EU’s borders were hopelessly under siege. “We would like to reassure our citizens,” Prodi declared, “that we will protect our borders against terrorism, organised crime and uncontrolled immigration.” While a common EU border guard has yet to see the light of day, a common EU export strategy has emerged in border management assistance. Such assistance aims to help recipient states strike a healthy balance between open and secure borders. This is not entirely altruistic.

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Tajikistan: ‘Revolutionary Situation or a Resilient State?

Tajikistan: ‘Revolutionary Situation or a Resilient State?

Author(s): Anna Matveeva / Language(s): English

Keywords: Tajikistan; regime; security and defense; social stability and growth;

Since 2008, after a period of relative growth and social stability, the situation in Tajikistan has been steadily deteriorating, leading to increased speculation that the country could emerge as a failing state. Given its proximity to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the role it plays in the Northern Distribution Network – a line that funnels military supplies from Europe to NATO ISAF troops in Afghanistan – the ramifications of potential instability in Tajikistan would resonate beyond the country. The current briefing assesses to what extent such danger is in fact real by outlining developments in the key areas of economy and security, and examining the regime’s capacity to cope with emerging challenges. The briefing concludes with recommendations for the EU and an outlook for future.

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Into EurAsia. Monitoring the EU’s Central Asia Strategy. Executive Summary and Recommendations

Into EurAsia. Monitoring the EU’s Central Asia Strategy. Executive Summary and Recommendations

Author(s): Michael Emerson,Jos Boonstra / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; Central Asia; EU's Central Asia strategy; energy security; economic development; energy and transport links; environmental sustainability; water;

The EU’s Central Asia strategy was introduced in 2007 in order to upgrade the EU’s cooperation with the five states of the region. The political context at that time was dominated by concerns in the EU over energy security and the war in Afghanistan. The strategy took a wide and comprehensive approach however, identifying a considerable number of priority actions (political dialogue, human rights and the rule of law, education, economic development, energy and transport links, environmental sustainability and water, common threats such as drug trafficking, etc). This approach has led to engagement in many dialogue procedures and projects. While there has been an undoubted increase in the level of activity, the extensiveness of the agenda and relatively low level of resources committed to the strategy entails a risk that the whole process may not have real impact and credibility.

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The 2010 OSCE Kazakhstan Chairmanship: Carrot Devoured, Results Missing

The 2010 OSCE Kazakhstan Chairmanship: Carrot Devoured, Results Missing

Author(s): Vladimir D. Shkolnikov / Language(s): English

Keywords: OSCE; security; cooperation; Europe; human rights; democracy; OSCE Kazakhstan Chairmanship;

Since the Conference for Security and Co-operation in Europe (CSCE), a Cold War forum for dialogue between East and West, was turned into an Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), very little attention has been paid to countries that exercised the Organisation’s rotating chairmanships. Usually chairmanships were held by small Western or Central European nations that tried to build the consensus needed for the organisation’s decision-making. Even when the OSCE became a target of attacks by Russia and its allies for what they saw as excessive emphasis of the organisation on issues of democratic elections and human rights, the role of the chairmanship was not put under the microscope. For, example, outside observers who quickly developed views on the risks and benefits of the Kazakhstan chairmanship barely paid attention to the 2007 Belgian OSCE chairmanship. Only the organisation’s then staff had insight into that chairmanship’s policy of maximum accommodation of Russia and minimal support for the organisation’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR).

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The EU-Central Asia Human Rights Dialogues: Making a Difference?

The EU-Central Asia Human Rights Dialogues: Making a Difference?

Author(s): Vera Axyonova / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; Central Asia; human rights; democratization policy;

Structured human rights dialogues (HRDs) were introduced as part of the broader EU democratisation policy towards Central Asian states after the adoption of the ‘EU and Central Asia: Strategy for a New Partnership’ in June 2007. The dialogues are conducted on a bilateral basis with each of the five Central Asian republics. As with the human rights dialogues established by the EU with a number of other countries, the HRDs with the Central Asian states are designed to ‘discuss questions of mutual interest and enhance cooperation on human rights, inter alia in multilateral arena such as the United Nations and the OSCE’ as well as to ‘raise the concerns felt by the EU on human rights in the countries concerned, gather information and launch initiatives to improve the relevant human rights situation.’

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Is the EU-Central Asia Strategy Running Out of Steam?

Is the EU-Central Asia Strategy Running Out of Steam?

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Michael Denison / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; Central Asia; EU's Central Asia Strategy; partnership; EU development;

The European Union’s Strategy for a New Partnership with Central Asia is approaching its fourth year of implementation. In that time the EU has placed its relationship with Central Asia on a more structured footing through the establishment of several formal initiatives designed to support seven engagement priorities in the region. The EU Development Cooperation Instrument (DCI) has allocated €321 million to support the Strategy between 2011 and 2013. Direct contacts between European officials and political leaders from the region, conducted in both Europe and Central Asia, are at unprecedented levels. Although progress has been made in building dialogue and in furthering engagement in certain defined areas, the limitations of the strategy are increasingly obvious.

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The EU’s Rule of Law Initiative for Central Asia: From Initiative to More Substance?

The EU’s Rule of Law Initiative for Central Asia: From Initiative to More Substance?

Author(s): Martin Schuster / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; rule of law; Central Asia; initiative;

Since its launch in June 2007, the EU-Central Asia Strategy has been reviewed twice in Joint Progress Reports published by the Council and the European Commission. The latest review (June 2010) concludes that more work is needed on the ‘definition of [the EU’s] interests and priorities, the visibility of EU activities, and the coordination within the EU as well as with other actors’. One year later, prior to the launch of the EU-Central Asia Rule of Law Platform project, this conclusion deserves special attention as regards the European Rule of Law Initiative (RLI), one of the most prominent and crucial elements of the Strategy’s regional dimension. EU support for legal reform initiatives in Central Asian states did not begin with the 2007 Strategy and its RLI. Since their independence, the Central Asian states have benefited from various technical assistance programmes from the Commission and EU Member States.

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Kyrgyzstan: Balancing on the Verge of Stability

Kyrgyzstan: Balancing on the Verge of Stability

Author(s): Anna Matveeva / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kyrgyzstan; stability; economic policy; economic development; regime; security; political stability;

In Kyrgyzstan the risk of instability remains. The country practices genuine elections and power-sharing, is open to international engagement, and promotes basic rights such as free speech. In 2010 Kyrgyzstan adopted a new Constitution, moving away from a super-presidential model to a system in which the president and the parliament share power more equally. Its economic performance is positive: the IMF assessed that the economy recovered quickly due to improved security and political stability, better-than-expected agricultural performance and a timely fiscal stimulus. However, it is the only ex-Soviet state to undergo two turbulent regime changes – the so called ‘Tulip-1’and ‘Tulip-2’ revolutions of 2005 and 2010 – and is affected by a strong regional split between the North and the South, one of the factors behind both ‘revolutions’. This makes Kyrgyzstan a country of paradoxes where it mixes positive developments with severe threats to its stability. The country is split geographically into the North and the South, each with a distinct identity. The first president, Akayev (until 2005), was from the North, and after his removal power shifted to the South, where Kurmanbek Bakiyev originated from (until April 2010).

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Involving Central Asia in Afghanistan’s Future – What can Europe do?

Involving Central Asia in Afghanistan’s Future – What can Europe do?

Author(s): Marlène Laruelle / Language(s): English

Keywords: Central Asia; Afghanistan; European Union; security; cooperation;

EU policy on Central Asia is unclear about the relationship between Afghanistan and Central Asia. The June 2010 Joint EU Council and Commission Implementation Report of the EU Strategy for Central Asia argues that cooperation in the area of security is of growing importance in EU-Central Asia relations, especially in light of developments in Afghanistan over the past few years. Even if security is among the Strategy’s seven key areas of engagement, the arguments put forward are vague: the Implementation Report states that “Afghanistan is a security issue of particular common concern and there is scope for more focused dialogue and cooperation between Central Asian countries and the EU”; and “there is a need to integrate the growing link between Central Asia and the wider region into EUCentral Asian cooperation.” The Central Asia-Afghanistan relationship is therefore evoked only to recall that the states of Central Asia are directly threatened by the insecurity emanating from Afghanistan.

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Human Security in Central Asia: Can the EU Help out?

Human Security in Central Asia: Can the EU Help out?

Author(s): Sébastien Peyrouse / Language(s): English

Keywords: Central Asia; European Union; human security; government; security and defense; regime; democracy;

Among the many challenges facing the Central Asian states, security is one of the most pressing concerns. Yet the way these states discuss the issue is significantly affected by external actors’ approaches to security in the region. Russia and China are the two most influential countries in shaping the security strategies of the Central Asian governments, through bilateral relations and multilateral organisations such as the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation) and the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation). However, this does not mean that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are “victims” of Russian and Chinese authoritarian pressure, without which they would take a more democratic approach. Even Russian influence, although much stronger in this area than China’s, cannot by itself explain the security decisions of the Central Asian regimes, as these decisions are chiefly driven by domestic issues and local political culture.

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EU Human Rights and Democratisation Assistance to Central Asia: In Need of Further Reform

EU Human Rights and Democratisation Assistance to Central Asia: In Need of Further Reform

Author(s): Vera Axyonova / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; democratization assistance; Central Asia; reforms; rule of law; government;

One of the declared priorities of the European Union (EU) in Central Asia is the strengthening of good governance, rule of law, human rights and democratisation. Given the EU’s limited financial resources and leverage in the region, and the unfavourable domestic conditions for democratisation, one can hardly expect European efforts to result in a significant liberalisation of Central Asian political regimes. Yet, EU assistance to local civil society can enhance social participation, which provides a foundation for a bottom-up democratisation process. In these terms, the EU thematic programmes – the Non-State Actors and Local Authorities in Development (NSA/LA), and the European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights (EIDHR) – primarily operating in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are of particular relevance. Uzbekistan continues to benefit from the Institution Building and Partnership Programme (IBPP); a funding mechanism that is no longer active in other countries. However, Turkmenistan is practically excluded from all these initiatives.

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