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№085: Germany and the Future of the Eurozone

№085: Germany and the Future of the Eurozone

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: eurozone; Germany; economy; Euro; Europe; European Union; Western Europe

Although the euro has survived the most severe phase of the current crisis, its future is still uncertain. The fate of the common currency will depend not only on the condition of the European economy, but also the priorities of its biggest player–Germany. So far that country has been strong enough to enforce its own vision of integration based on neoliberal reforms and austerity measures. Since the side effects of this prescription have been rising costs and risks, Berlin’s new government will consider a range of different solutions, including in extremis a controlled and partial break-up of the Eurozone. For Poland, this volatility creates a challenging environment with risks, but also creates chances for Warsaw to increase its influence over the evolution of EU integration in this field.

Battles for Truth in a "Country in Clinical Condition"

Battles for Truth in a "Country in Clinical Condition"

Author(s): Aleksander Kiossev / Language(s): English

In this paper I will focus on the crisis functioning of the institutions under public and media pressure. Institutions whose function is to provide truth and justice will be discussed: I will look at them in the light of one particular case which sparked incredible public debate in Bulgaria in 2001 and caused a clash between the fi rst (the executive), the third (the judiciary) and the fourth ‘power’ (the media), provoked nationwide outrage, and brought Bulgaria to the brink of a political and institutional crisis in a truly unprecedented way. The focus of my analysis will be the ‘truth discourses’ of these branches of power, and more specifically the critical intertwining of ‘truths’ produced by the Bulgarian executive, media and judicial institutions about the case in question.

DPC BOSNIA DAILY: What to Expect - and What Not To

DPC BOSNIA DAILY: What to Expect - and What Not To

Author(s): Patrick Dick / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; European commission; progress report; priorities; reform agenda; economy; agriculture; justice; constitutional reform;

Bosnia Daily: October 21, 2015 – What to Expect - and What Not To

№002: The challenge of Middle East Peace before the EU‐US Lisbon Summit

№002: The challenge of Middle East Peace before the EU‐US Lisbon Summit

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU‐US Lisbon Summit; Middle East; peace

PISM Policy Paper – przygotowany we współpracy z Centrum Stosunków Transatlantyckich przy Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) na Johns Hopkins University w Waszyngtonie – omawia stan bliskowschodniego procesu pokojowego w przededniu szczytu UE-USA w Lizbonie. Autorka, Patrycja Sasnal (analityk PISM oraz Visiting Scholar w SAIS), dowodzi pilnej potrzeby bardziej spójnej polityki UE wobec Bliskiego Wschodu, polegającej na aktywnym zaangażowaniu Wysokiej Przedstawiciel UE ds. Stosunków Zewnętrznych oraz Polityki Bezpieczeństwa, a także wsparciu wszystkich państw członkowskich. Sprawując Prezydencję w Radzie UE w drugiej połowie 2011 r., Polska może przyczynić się do wypracowania konsensu w podejściu państw UE do procesu pokojowego na Bliskim Wschodzie dzięki łagodzeniu napięć między Francją a Niemcami i pobudzając współpracę transatlantycką. Efektem byłoby wzmocnienie zarówno polskiej, jak i unijnej pozycji międzynarodowej.

Hungarian Presidency of the Visegrad Group

Hungarian Presidency of the Visegrad Group

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Hungary; Visegrad Group; Central Europe

On 1 July, Hungary took over from Poland the annual presidency of the Visegrad Group. Its motto, "V4 Connects", is meant to express both the importance of regional infrastructure development and group cohesion. Its presidency will work to facilitate more efficient use of EU digitisation and innovation programmes by V4 members. However, the presidency programme does not contain a common answer to the issue of deepening European integration. With an ongoing election campaign, Hungary might attempt to politicize its V4 cooperation.

Hungary’s Foreign Policy in a Changing International Environment

Hungary’s Foreign Policy in a Changing International Environment

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Hungary; Viktor Orbán; Central Europe

Hungarian authorities see Donald Trump’s presidency as confirmation that the overall international situation is evolving in a direction it foresees. That may result in Hungary increasing its foreign policy activity, although its interests and Poland’s will increasingly differ. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s vision of the EU is of a bloc based on the French-German tandem and independent military capabilities. Further, the Visegrad Group would constitute one of several economically competing European regions. Orbán also expects the U.S. to try to normalise relations with Russia and aims for Hungary to take a leading role in shaping EU policy towards its eastern neighbour.

Regulatory Impact Assessment of the Effects on the Editorial Freedom Created by the Existing Legislation on Audio and Audiovisual Services

Проценка на ефектите на постоечката регулатива за аудио и аудиовизуелни услуги врз уредничката слобода

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Macedonian

Jihad vs. The New Great Game. Paradoxes of militant Islamic threats in Central Asia

Jihad vs. The New Great Game. Paradoxes of militant Islamic threats in Central Asia

Author(s): Maciej Falkowski,Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English

Keywords: Jihad; Central Asia; militant Islamic threats

Threats linked to Islamic fundamentalism have been hanging over Central Asia for almost two decades. Many believe that militant Islam has played a significant part in each major political crisis in the region, and Central Asia is perceived as an almost perfect environment for its further development. Such a picture of this region is a result of serious abuses and manipulations.The real threat posed by militant Islam seems to be rather limited, and its roots lie outside Central Asia. This region is unlikely to become a key front of global jihad. Nevertheless, this does not guarantee peace and safety in Central Asia, as the Islamic threat remains an element of the geopolitical rivalry in the region – the ‘New Great Game’.

Contrasting Approaches to the Crisis: New Threats and Opportunities within and beyond the EU

Contrasting Approaches to the Crisis: New Threats and Opportunities within and beyond the EU

Author(s): Ondřej Horký / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; global financial and economic crisis; market; democratic administration; international monetary system;

In early July, the second conference of the Czech-French Europe Dialogue series took place in Prague. Six Czech and French economists and political scientists met to discuss the impacts of and the responses to the ongoing global financial and economic crisis. The participants highlighted the following points: • Despite the global effects of the crisis, governments’ responses originated at the national level and did not lead to institutional changes at the international level. While the financial sector requires selective regulation, there is not enough will to strengthen the governance of the global economy. • The crisis has affected EU member states in different ways. Moreover, its perception and the measures undertaken vary among nations according to their historical experience. The neoliberal vogue in the mainstream discourse has ended and the continental economic models were rehabilitated. The crisis gives us an opportunity to find a European consensus on the balance between the importance of market incentives and institutional regulation. • National measures to mitigate the adverse social impacts of the crisis have suspended the Stability and Growth Pact and substantially increased the current public debt. Its repayment may take as long as two decades and it presents a major challenge for the social and intergenerational solidarity in the EU. • The declining dominance of the United States in the global economy and the new democratic administration present an opportunity to foster transatlantic relations. The EU should unite its voice to promoting necessary reforms of the international monetary system and finding new ways of financing the economic growth in order to overcome the growing imbalance between developed and emerging markets.

№247. An evaluation of the French proposal for a restructuring of Greek debt

№247. An evaluation of the French proposal for a restructuring of Greek debt

Author(s): Christian Kopf / Language(s): English

Keywords: French proposal; Restruction of Greek debt; French commercial banks; Greek government;

French commercial banks are proposing a swap of €85.5 billion in Greek government bonds maturing between 2011 and 2014 into a combination of new long-term Greek bonds with principal guarantee and cash payments. If this initiative were implemented under the proposed parameters, private creditors would only suffer a minimal haircut and official lenders would be provided with cash-flow relief of around €20 billion over the next three years, but the solvency of the Hellenic Republic would worsen significantly.

№264. Renewables and the EU Internal Electricity Market. The case for an arranged marriage

№264. Renewables and the EU Internal Electricity Market. The case for an arranged marriage

Author(s): Jonas Teusch / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU Internal Electricity Market; electricity market; low-carbon economy; internal energy market;

This Policy Brief argues that pursuing there newables objective could contribute to the completion of the internal electricity market, help overcome opposition to transmission projects and decrease the market power of incumbents. Conversely, an integrated internal electricity market means less price volatility inspecific regional markets, which allows for more efficient deployment and grid integration of renewables.

Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Author(s): Natalia Shapovalova / Language(s): English

Keywords: Eastern Europe; Central Asia; post-Soviet countries; international relations; multilateral relations; Russia's dominance; political relations;

Relations between Central Asia and the post-Soviet countries of Eastern Europe have largely been developed in the shadow of Russia. Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine have established ties through integration projects in the post-Soviet space that are led by Russia, such as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and other initiatives. But against this, bilateral and multilateral relations between CIS countries have often been aimed at counterbalancing Russia’s dominance. GUUAM, for example, was an alliance between Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova formed in 1999; after the departure of Uzbekistan in 2005, it became known as GUAM. The organisation was conceived as an alternative cooperation project, and Moscow perceived it to be anti-Russian.

The EU-Arab Summit: A chance to reset relations with the Arab world?

The EU-Arab Summit: A chance to reset relations with the Arab world?

Author(s): James Moran / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Arab League; summit; political relations; economic relations; security;

Leaders of the 50 countries that comprise the EU and the Arab League, together with the European Institutions, are set to meet in Egypt’s Sharm el Sheikh on 24-25th February in an unprecedented summit encounter. Chaired by Presidents Abdel Fatah El-Sisi and Donald Tusk, the event marks the first time these close neighbours have come together in this format. As such, this is something of a breakthrough, although there is a risk of failure.

Prospects of a Reset in EU-U.S. Relations

Prospects of a Reset in EU-U.S. Relations

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz,Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; United States; EU-US relations; US-China dispute;improvement of relations;

During his September visit to Brussels, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo proposed a reset in EU-U.S. relations. By this, President Donald Trump is signalling he is considering adjusting his EU policy as he searches for support in the U.S. rivalry with China and seeks a diplomatic win for his upcoming re-election campaign. For the EU, it could be a chance to prevent an escalation of the trade dispute and to also save the Iran nuclear deal. However, the economic differences between the two partners, as well as the unwillingness by the EU to take a clear side in the U.S.-China dispute, diminishes the likelihood of an improvement in relations.

Let’s Learn from the Experience of Others: Poland and Its Preparations for a Higher Terrorist Threat

Let’s Learn from the Experience of Others: Poland and Its Preparations for a Higher Terrorist Threat

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Poland; Western Europe; Islamist terrorism; security threats; counter-terrorism measures; preparations for a higher terrorist threat; recruitment to terrorist organisations;

Islamist terrorism is one of the main security threats to Western Europe. Poland and other Central and Eastern European countries, which are at far less risk, are able to utilise the experiences of their Western European partners and enhance the scope of their counter-terrorism measures to include preventing and combating radicalisation and recruitment to terrorist organisations. This will enable the “new” EU Member States to construct comprehensive counter-terrorism strategies before the terrorist threat escalates, rather than after, as was the case with Western Europe.

June Defence Summit: France Seeks to Add CSDP to the Core of the EU’s Global Approach

June Defence Summit: France Seeks to Add CSDP to the Core of the EU’s Global Approach

Author(s): Nathan Dufour / Language(s): English

Keywords: June Defence Summit; France; European Union; security and defence policy;

Pushed by a degraded security context both at home and abroad, France sees first and foremost the June European Council session on defence as an opportunity to consolidate the previously endorsed “small steps” approach to CSDP, in particular to support its own efforts to maintain its “strategic autonomy.” Yet, the mixed results of this policy so far are leading France to engage more with its partners on re-introducing a political vision that could help push CSDP out of its muddy scrapes. Poland should build on this since it could bolster the EU’s ownership in providing genuine solutions to crises in the neighbourhood.

The Capital Markets Union—Big Opportunities, Many Unknowns

The Capital Markets Union—Big Opportunities, Many Unknowns

Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; capital market; increasing investments in EU; The Capital Markets Union;

The European Commission plans to integrate the capital market, which should increase the scale of investment in the EU. Public consultations on this issue run till 13 May 2015. Many details still remain open, but even now one can see its importance for Poland. The Capital Markets Union can facilitate the financing of innovative companies and help overcome the so-called middle income trap.

The UK’s Counterterrorism Policy in Its Relations with the EU

The UK’s Counterterrorism Policy in Its Relations with the EU

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

Keywords: United Kingdom; European Union; UK’s counterterrorism policy; terrorist networks; rising terrorist threats; foreign fighters returning from Islamic State;

The United Kingdom plays a special role in countering terrorism in the EU, as it is one of the most threatened Member States, and a territory that is often used by terrorist networks to recruit new members and prepare new attacks. Due to this, the “Brexit” scenario, improbable as it is for now, means that other Member States, with less developed counterterrorist policies, must strengthen their cooperation with their British partners, especially in the light of the rising terrorist threat emanating from foreign fighters returning from the Islamic State.

Quo Vadis, Moldova?

Quo Vadis, Moldova?

Author(s): Veaceslav Berbeca / Language(s): English

The year 2019 proved to be full of political events that generated hope but also confused the citizens of the Republic of Moldova and international observers. The formation of the situational coalition in June between the ACUM bloc and the PSRM signaled the beginning of some changes in the administration of state affairs. Attentive observers of the political processes were somewhat circumspect about the possibility of sincere collaboration between the two parties. However, few would have expected the honeymoon to stop suddenly, without creating the conditions for irreversible changes. Such political maneuvers affecting the welfare of the citizens inoculate even more deeply to the public opinion the idea that Moldovan politicians are incurable and incorrigible when it comes to promoting political and economic reforms.

Inside Ukraine, № 2015 - 52

Inside Ukraine, № 2015 - 52

Author(s): Vira Nanivska,Iaroslav Kovalchuk,Vasyl Povoroznyk / Language(s): English

The Government Policy // The HR-company called “Ukraine” // The adoption of the anti-corruption legislation vs its implementation // Economic Situation // Reform of the State Fiscal Service: the main challenges // Naftogaz reform without the liberalization of natural gas market // Political Competition // Challenges of local elections // Potential winners of the local elections