Search results for: european law in All Content

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Further Lack of Progress in Settling the Situation in Donbas

Further Lack of Progress in Settling the Situation in Donbas

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Donbas; negotiations; lack of agreement; Normandy meeting; bilateral talks with Russia;

Despite the resumption of negotiations at the highest level of the Normandy Format (Ukraine, Russia, Germany, France) in Paris last December, the deadlock regarding the situation in Donbas was not broken. None of the main provisions of the Paris summit has been implemented so far. The likely lack of agreement at the next Normandy meeting, initially scheduled for the beginning of the second quarter of this year, may prompt Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to intensify bilateral talks with Russia.

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China on the Hong Kong Protests: 2 Scenarios

Scenariusze polityki ChRL wobec protestów w Hongkongu

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: People’s Republic of China; Hong Kong protests; demonstrations; radicalisation of protests; civil society; local authorities; violation of international law; police brutality;

Radykalizacja protestów w Hongkongu destabilizuje tamtejszą gospodarkę i życie publiczne. Przeczy propagandzie Komunistycznej Partii Chin o sukcesie integracji regionu z Chinami. Władze chińskie nie wykluczają wyprowadzenia wojska na ulice Hongkongu, ale w pierwszej kolejności próbują opanować sytuację za pośrednictwem lokalnej władzy. Ogranicza ona prawo do zgromadzeń i autoryzuje brutalne działania policji. Oznacza to łamanie postanowień deklaracji chińsko-brytyjskiej z 1984 r. i stanowi naruszenie prawa międzynarodowego. W przypadku zaostrzenia sytuacji w Hongkongu UE będzie zmuszona zająć bardziej zdecydowane stanowisko niż dotychczas.

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China’s Economy Amid the Trade Dispute with the U.S.

China’s Economy Amid the Trade Dispute with the U.S.

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: People’s Republic of China; United States; China’s economy; US trade dispute; economic reforms; economic growth;

The trade dispute with the U.S., which has been going on for over a year, as well as global and internal factors are contributing to a slowdown in China’s economy, in part by reducing export profits. To counter this situation, the Chinese authorities introduced a stimulus package and halt some economic reforms. Although China’s economy is overall stable, the protracted dispute with the U.S. may exacerbate negative internal processes and further slow growth. This will affect the global economy, which in turn could lead to a decline in exports for companies from the EU. At the same time, China may be willing to widen its market to some investors.

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Changes in South Africa’s Foreign Policy

Changes in South Africa’s Foreign Policy

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: South Africa; foreign policy; parliamentary elections; international relations; multilateralism;

May’s parliamentary elections in South Africa, a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), will change the directions of its foreign policy. The victory by the African National Congress (ANC) was made possible by the popularity of the current president, Cyril Ramaphosa, who will emphasize the international dimension of policy. In his new term, he will focus on regaining the trust of foreign investors, strengthening the country’s pro-Western course, supporting multilateralism, and reform of the International Criminal Court (ICC).

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The Effects of the Tensions Inside the Communist Party on China’s Foreign Policy

The Effects of the Tensions Inside the Communist Party on China’s Foreign Policy

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: People’s Republic of Cina; foreign policy; Communist Party; centralization of power; international relations;

There is growing dissatisfaction with Chairman Xi Jinping in China. Members of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) charge that his centralisation of power has harmed the economy and deteriorated China’s position in relations with the U.S. In response, Xi has increased control over the party, dismissed his opponents, and is trying to gain success in foreign policy by negotiating firmly with the U.S. and underlining the positive outcomes of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Xi’s political position is untouchable but a third term as China’s chairman may be questioned. China’s policy towards the U.S. will also have implications for its relations with Poland.

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General Elections in India: Narendra Modi Set for a Second Term

General Elections in India: Narendra Modi Set for a Second Term

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: India; general elections; Indian People's Party; economic growth; agriculture; foreign policy; state modernization;

The just-concluded parliamentary elections in India will most probably be won by the Indian People's Party (Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP) of incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Despite growing unemployment and a crisis in agriculture, for most voters, Modi remains a guarantee of economic growth and active foreign policy. India is set to have a stable majority government and continue modernisation. Irrespective of the vote, no major changes in the country’s foreign policy are expected.

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China on WTO Reform: Protecting Its Development Model

China on WTO Reform: Protecting Its Development Model

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: People’s Republic of China; World Trade Organisation; WTO reform; global economy; international trade;

China treats limited WTO reform as a response to events threatening the stability of the global trade order, including its customs war with the U.S. However, it also wants to maintain as many privileges as possible and avoid restrictions on its adopted economic model, in which the government has a strong role. Therefore, China’s position on some issues, such as developing country status, is inflexible. It will be interested mostly in changes to the WTO arbitration mechanism and method for negotiating multilateral agreements.

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The Future of Afghanistan: Talks between the U.S. and the Taliban

The Future of Afghanistan: Talks between the U.S. and the Taliban

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Afghanistan; United States; Taliban; negotiations; NATO; peace talks; withdrawal of foreign forces; civil war;

Recent progress in negotiations between representatives of the U.S. and the Taliban gives an opportunity to end the 17-year war in Afghanistan and the NATO mission there. The breakthrough comes at a time when the Taliban are the strongest since 2001, and the administration of President Donald Trump is seeking to withdraw troops from Afghanistan as soon as possible. This gives the negotiating advantage to the Taliban and risks breaking the talks. Withdrawal of foreign forces before an agreement on an intra-Afghan political deal can be reached could lead to the escalation of the civil war and the Taliban taking full power.

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China’s New Document on the EU: A Small Chance to Improve Relations

China’s New Document on the EU: A Small Chance to Improve Relations

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: People’s Republic of China; European Union; EU-China cooperation; improving relations; economic cooperation;

In mid-December 2018, China released its third document on the EU. The timing of its publication and willingness to deepen cooperation show that China wants to improve relations with the EU in the midst of the disputes with the U.S., which have had a negative impact on China’s economy and international image. Chinese authorities hope that the EU will not use Trump’s methods, despite sharing some of his concerns. China instead expects the EU to continue its policy of engagement. However, the content of the document, essentially a long list of EU obligations and a wide catalogue of cooperation areas (e.g., 5G, high-tech) without reference to the EU’s concerns, makes its usefulness questionable.

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Protectionism in U.S. Trade Policy

Protectionism in U.S. Trade Policy

Author(s): Marek Wąsiński,Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: United States; trade policy; protectionism in trade policy; trade agreements with Canada and Mexico; Trump administration; trade deficit;

The U.S. administration under President Donald Trump has completed the renegotiation of the trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. At the same time, it has escalated the tariffs battle with another important partner—China. The strategy of concluding new deals under the pressure of protectionist measures is meant to maximise the benefits for the U.S. at the expense of its partners. The Trump administration has been successfully implementing this policy, but in the long term, the trade conflict may hinder American enterprises, including those in the agricultural sector, and increase the trade deficit, in effect contributing to the decline of support for the Republicans and the president.

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Japanese-American Relations in Challenging Times

Japanese-American Relations in Challenging Times

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Japan; United States; Japanese-American relations; security strategy; defence policy; limiting usage of military instruments; foreign trade;

Japan is seeking to change its security strategy, limiting the possibility of using military instruments. Prime Minister Shinzō Abe's announcement that he seeks to alter the constitution and defence policy also results from the growing uncertainty about the future of Japan’s alliance with the U.S., dictated by the attitude of the Donald Trump administration towards American allies in the region and in Europe. A growing concern of Abe’s government is also the increase in U.S. protectionism in foreign trade, which may hinder Japan’s economic growth and cause it to seek closer cooperation with the EU.

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Turkey’s Economic Problems before the Elections

Turkey’s Economic Problems before the Elections

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; Turkish economy; economic problems before the elections; value of Turkish lira; structural reforms;

In May, the Turkish lira reached a record low to the U.S. dollar. Turkey’s growing economic problems stem from Turkish politicians’ preference for political goals over economic ones. For now, the authorities have begun to undertake actions to regain investors’ trust, but in the longer term, Turkey’s economy needs to undergo deep and probably unpopular structural reform. The country’s economic problems may significantly influence the parliamentary and presidential elections set for 24 June.

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A Make or Break Moment: Afghanistan Prepares for Key Elections This Fall

A Make or Break Moment: Afghanistan Prepares for Key Elections This Fall

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Afghanistan; parliamentary elections; democratization; legitimacy of the government; security of electoral process;

The date of the long overdue parliamentary elections in Afghanistan has been set for 20 October. If they go ahead as planned, the effects of years of international efforts to stabilise the country and build democracy will be visible. An efficient, safe vote will testify to the strength of state institutions and strengthen the legitimacy of the government. On the other hand, the disruption of the elections or undermining the results can cause political chaos and serve the Taliban, seeking to seize power. If requested by the government in Kabul, the U.S., NATO, and the EU should stand ready to support the electoral process, especially in ensuring security.

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Limitations of the Sanctions Policy towards North Korea

Limitations of the Sanctions Policy towards North Korea

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: UN Security Council; North Korea; sanctions against North Korea; sanctions policy; denuclearisation;

Over the last two years, the UN Security Council (UNSC) has adopted five resolutions imposing a wide range of sanctions on North Korea to induce it to denuclearise, unsuccessfully. The reasons are the North’s determination to develop its nuclear and missile programmes and its ability to circumvent the sanctions. Other countries also have not fully complied with the provisions of the resolutions. The existing sanctions-based policy should be supplemented with multilateral diplomatic engagement aimed at achieving goals less ambitious than denuclearisation.

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Charges against Prime Minister Netanyahu: Implications for Israeli Domestic and Foreign Policy

Charges against Prime Minister Netanyahu: Implications for Israeli Domestic and Foreign Policy

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu; corruption investigation; government; foreign policy;

Israeli police, after investigations into corruption allegations, have recommended the country’s Attorney General indict Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu rejects the allegations. The leaders of the parties forming the government support the head of government and did not take any action that would lead to a breakdown of the coalition. However, the results of the investigations combined with public pressure may affect the government’s stability and speed up Knesset elections. The political struggle between the parties may lead to stronger actions and rhetoric in Israeli foreign policy.

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Palestine in Russia’s Foreign Policy

Palestine in Russia’s Foreign Policy

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian Federation; Palestine; strategy towards the Middle East; Russian activity in Syria; Palestine in Russian foreign policy; peace process;

Russia is strengthening its relations with both the Palestinian Authority leadership and Hamas in Gaza Strip. It is part of Russia’s consistent strategy towards the Middle East to build a network of influence among regional actors and boost its image as an attractive political partner. In developing relations with the Palestinians, Russia exploits Israel’s sensitivity to Russian activity in Syria, poor relations between Palestine and the U.S., and the deadlock in the peace process.

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South Caucasus Countries and COVID-19

South Caucasus Countries and COVID-19

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Keywords: South Caucasus countries; COVID-19 pandemic; inefficient health services; anti-crisis strategy; Georgia; Armenia; Azerbaijan;

The peak incidence of COVID-19 in the Caucasus is forecast for mid-May. The countries of the region are not prepared for it—their health services are inefficient, and the adopted anti-crisis solutions do not meet the needs of their economies. The pandemic also leads to limiting the activity of the opposition in these countries, deepening the surveillance of society and intensifying the use of propaganda by the authorities.

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The Government Gains: The German Political Scene during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The Government Gains: The German Political Scene during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; COVID-19 pandemic; German political scene during pandemic; German response to pandemic; growing public support for Angela Merkel;

The actions taken by the German government in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic have resulted in growing public support. It has been strengthened by the image of Angela Merkel as a leader experienced in combating previous crises, as well as support from the opposition. A stable political situation in Germany is important from the perspective of the forthcoming German presidency of the EU Council, which will focus on organising medical assistance for the Member States most affected by the pandemic and creating a plan for the economic recovery of the EU.

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A #Colectiv Responsibility to Fight Corruption: Romania’s Nightclub Fire Protests Singe the System

A #Colectiv Responsibility to Fight Corruption: Romania’s Nightclub Fire Protests Singe the System

Author(s): Anita Sobják / Language(s): English

Keywords: Romania; nightclub fire in Bucharest; corruption; systemic problems of corruption; collective responsibility; protests; fire safety norms;

The tragic fire in Club Colectiv in Bucharest shed light on the broader systemic problems of corruption. The resulting and quickly swelling public outrage fits in with a series of anti-systemic protests in Romania in recent years. A change of government resulting from the prime minister’s swift resignation will bring no immediate relief to an ailing system. For that to happen, more efforts are needed on all fronts: among the political elite, civil society, as well as Romania’s external partners. The latter can be important in preventing political destabilisation and promoting positive change.

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Moldova’s Slow Reawakening

Moldova’s Slow Reawakening

Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldova; protests; civic platform Dignity and Truth; demands for reforms; political crisis;

Moldova’s biggest protest in decades, organised by the civic platform Dignity and Truth, is turning into a permanent demonstration. On the one hand, the protest shows a more mature society capable of self-organisation and increasing its demands for reforms. On the other hand, the protest risks taking a negative turn if the government continues to disregard popular discontent. The opposition, sponsored by Russia, is likely to capitalise on any opportunity to exacerbate the political crisis and win ground. The EU has to walk a thin line between shielding grass roots protest and persuading the government to re-start reforms immediately, especially in the justice and banking sectors.

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