Series:EAP Think Bridge. Eastern Partnership monthly analytical Digest

EAP Think Bridge - № 2020-31 - Focus on Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine

EAP Think Bridge - № 2020-31 - Focus on Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Vadim Mojeiko,Lasha Tughushi,Ludmila Nofit,Sergiy Gerasymchuk / Language(s): English

2020 has been a challenging year for the Eastern Partnership.The countries require quite some time to recover from theconsequences of the pandemic for the health care systemand the economy and, perhaps, without the support of foreignpartners, including the EU, they will not recover any soon.Armenia and Azerbaijan will have to start anew the diplomaticpath to normalizing relations after a destructive 44-day war. // CONTENT: Analytica: Eastern Partnership in the Next Decade: Focus on Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine // Azerbaijan: All Efforts to Ensure Karabakh Recovery // Crisis in Post-War Armenia // Belarus: Lukashenko Threatens with NATO Invasion, COVID-19 Pandemic on the Rise // Georgia: One-Party Parliament // Moldova at Crossroads // Ukraine: 2020 Controversial Results in Politics and Epidemic

EAP Think Bridge - № 2020-30 - Presidential Elections in Moldova

EAP Think Bridge - № 2020-30 - Presidential Elections in Moldova

Author(s): Artem Fylypenko,Richard Giragosian,Vadim Mojeiko,Lasha Tughushi,Sorin Șclearuc,Sergiy Gerasymchuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: boycott of opposition in Georgia's Parliament; 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war;

November did not bring the expected calm to the countries of the region, although several important steps were taken towards it. In Moldova, the euphoria over Maia Sandu’s sensational victory in the presidential race has been replaced by exaggerated demands from voters and an unreasonable expectation of quick results from her work. What changes are coming to the country and the region? In Georgia, the opposition does not recognize the election results and refuses to enter the parliament. The country’s legislature risks remaining oneparty with only 90 out of 150 seats filled if the boycott of opposition parties continues. The 44-day war ended in Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the peace agreement, signed at the Kremlin’s proposal, sparked protests in both Azerbaijan and Armenia. In Yerevan, the agreement is called treason and calls for the resignation of the prime minister are loud. Meanwhile, in Baku the opposition is concerned about the deployment of Russian peacekeepers to Karabakh. Protests against the regime of Lukashenko continue in Belarus, as do the use of force by the authorities and arrests of protesters. The most important developments of November in the Eastern Partnership analyzed in our digest. /// CONTENT: Analytica: Presidential Elections in Moldova: Interim Success of Maia Sandu // Azerbaijan: War Ended in a Victory // Crisis in Post-War Armenia // Belarus: Lukashenko Сalls on “Taking No Prisoners” and Closes Borders with the EU // Georgian Parliament with No Opposition // Moldova: New President – New Hopes // Three November Challenges for Ukraine: “COVID”, Anti-Corruption and Financial Ones

EAP Think Bridge - № 2020-23 - Eastern Partnership as a Testof the EU’s Commitment to Conflicts Resolution

EAP Think Bridge - № 2020-23 - Eastern Partnership as a Testof the EU’s Commitment to Conflicts Resolution

Author(s): Hennadiy Maksak,Richard Giragosian,Vadim Mojeiko,Lasha Tughushi,Sorin Șclearuc,Sergiy Gerasymchuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: 2020 protests in Belarus; Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict;

Parliamentary elections in Georgia, presidential elections in Moldova and local elections in Ukraine: the Eastern Partnership sets its course for the next five years. None of the campaigns avoided scandals and surprises, and the final outcome of the vote has not yet been decided. In Belarus, protests against dishonest elections and authoritarian regime do not subside. Armenia and Azerbaijan are facing an even more difficult choice: to alter for the diplomatic conflict resolution in Nagorno-Karabakh and start negotiations or to continue hostilities that claim dozens of lives. What role can and should the European Union play in resolving this and other conflicts in the Eastern Partnership countries? What tools are in the arsenal of Brussels, and which still need to be invented? After all, the request of partner countries for closer attention from the EU to the topic of frozen and active conflicts in the region is more than obvious. All these and other important October developments in the Eastern Partnership are analyzed in our digest. //// CONTENT: Analytica: Eastern Partnership as a Test of the EU’s Commitment to Conflicts Resolution // Azerbaijan: Internal Problems Postponed for the War // Armenia Struggles with War over Nagorno-Karabakh // Belarus: Violence against Protesters and Diplomatic Scandals // Georgia: Street Protests or One-Party Parliament? // Moldova: on the Finishing Straight // How not to get Ukraine Fatigue?

EAP Think Bridge - № 2020-22 - Coronavirus Crush Test: Disinformation Resilience of the EAP States

EAP Think Bridge - № 2020-22 - Coronavirus Crush Test: Disinformation Resilience of the EAP States

Author(s): Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Laura Zghibarta,Lasha Tughushi,Vadim Mojeiko,Richard Giragosian,Hanna Shelest / Language(s): English

Keywords: Armenia and Azerbaijan war; street protests in Belarus; disinformation on Covid-19;

Full-scale hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan, unfolded in late September, endangered the security and stability of the entire region. Perhaps, even further cooperation within the framework of the Eastern Partnership, which includes both warring countries, is questionable. Meanwhile, for more than seven weeks now, street protests against unfair elections and the system in general have not subsided in Belarus. The violence of the security forces against the protesters has not stopped as well as. Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine are preparing for elections - parliamentary, presidential and local, respectively. This means that the polarization in the societies is growing. However, it is not only military clashes and political showdowns that endanger the region. While the countries are trying to cope with the crisis in the healthcare system, the economic and humanitarian consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, the information sphere is also under attack. The rampant stream of disinformation about the virus has become a test for strength – for the states, the media, and civil society, a real “combat” test of their readiness to defend their information security. After all, the goal of fakes in most cases is to sow panic and undermine confidence in the state. All these topics and some more can be found in the latest issue of our digest. //// CONTENT: Analytica: Coronavirus Сrush Test: Disinformation Resilience of the EaP States and Romania // Azerbaijan: State of War and Military Mobilization // Armenia at War // Belarus: 50 Days of Protests, West Doesn’t Recognize Lukashenko as Legitimate // Georgia under Risk to be Involved in South Caucasus Conflict // Turmoil in Moldova amid the electoral period, the pandemic and a contested governance process // Ukraine: New Trend of “Economisation” for Domestic and Foreign Policies

EAP Think Bridge - № 2020-21 - Elections in Belarus: international Implications

EAP Think Bridge - № 2020-21 - Elections in Belarus: international Implications

Author(s): Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Ludmila Nofit,Lasha Tughushi,Vadim Mojeiko,Richard Giragosian,Volodymyr Kopchak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Alexander Lukashenko; 2020 protests in Belarus; Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict; Covid-19;

Despite the obvious irregularities in the electoral process in Belarus and the brutal use of force against peaceful protesters, three out of the five leaders of the Eastern Partnership countries hastened to congratulate Alexander Lukashenko on his victory. The European Union has expressed its traditional concern and has already announced sanctions. And Russia, although it supports the regime, is in no hurry to take action. What did Belarusians expect from their neighbors and Europe? What should the next steps be? And how will the situation affect the entire Eastern Partnership region? Belarus is the central topic in the new issue of our Digest, as well as of the international expert discussion on September 4. Also in this issue: the first candidates and blocs came forward in the upcoming elections in Moldova and Georgia. Quarantine is not an obstacle to the beginning of the electoral process and high-profile layoffs in the anti-corruption bodies in Ukraine. A wedding during an epidemic became pretext for a political scandal in Azerbaijan. Armenia has focused on its national security. All the main events of the month in the Eastern Partnership are analyzed in the Think Bridge Digest. //// CONTENT: Analytica: Border Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan: Military and Political Implications // Azerbaijan: Authorities’ War on Two Fronts // Armenia: Public Health Crisis Improves, but Defense Concerns Continue // Belarus: Pre-Election Repressions and Economic Voluntarism // Georgia: Opposition Unites ahead of Elections // Is Moldova Still “Learning” How to Be Independent and Democratic? // Ukraine on the Brink of New Political Season // Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum News

EAP Think Bridge - № 2020-20 - Border Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan

EAP Think Bridge - № 2020-20 - Border Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Author(s): Volodymyr Kopchak,Richard Giragosian,Vadim Mojeiko,Lasha Tughushi,Victor Chirila,Sergiy Gerasymchuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Vladimir Zelenskyy; COVID-19; Belarus crackdown on the opposition; Moldova facing elections;

During the first year at the office, President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelenskyy hardly managed to set, or at least explain his team’s foreign policy priorities. However, the Eastern Partnership did not go unnoticed on his agenda in multiple dimensions: as an instrument of cooperation with the European Union, as a region as a whole, and at the level of bilateral contacts with partner countries. Which of these tracks was more important and who did Ukraine manage to work with more efficiently while ignoring other capitals so far? The results of the first year of President Zelenskyy for the Eastern Partnership are analyzed by Hanna Shelest. Meanwhile, in May, election campaigns launched in three countries of the region. In Belarus it started with the crackdown on the opposition, fines and arrests. In Moldova President Dodon started campaigning, in spite of all anti-epidemic measures. In the meantime, in Georgia it is still not clear which law will be applied to the parliamentary elections in October as the authorities and the opposition are still failing to find compromise. Last month, Armenia was one of the first to lift quarantine restrictions and immediately faced a new wave of incidence of COVID-19. The prime minister and his entire family tested positively for coronavirus. In May, Azerbaijan faced a wave of arrests, with both the opposition and government officials behind bars. And Ukraine managed to get into two high-profile international scandals and new difficulties in relations with its partners, the United States and Georgia. All these and other major developments of the month in the countries of the Eastern Partnership are analyzed in our traditional reviews. //// CONTENT: Analytica: Border Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan: Military and Political Implications // Azerbaijan: Authorities’ War on Two Fronts // Armenia: COVID-19 Eases, but Armenia is Badly Shaken // Belarus: Pre-Election Repressions and Economic Voluntarism // Georgia: First Parliamentarian Candidates are Registered // Moldova: Economy remains Fragile and Domestic Stability Volatile // Ukraine: Hot July before Political Summer Break

EAP Think Bridge - № 2020-19 - June of High Level and Low Content

EAP Think Bridge - № 2020-19 - June of High Level and Low Content

Author(s): Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Laura Zghibarta,Lasha Tughushi,Vadim Mojeiko,Richard Giragosian,Hennadiy Maksak / Language(s): English

Keywords: upcoming elections in Belarus; upcoming elections in Moldova; Armenian anti-corruption campaign; Covid-19 pandemic;

Just as last year, they did not dare to call the meeting of the Eastern Partnership heads of states a summit. The main political event was yet again postponed – until 2021. No common statements and declarations have followed since the June online conferences. Does this mean that the European Union and partner states cannot agree on a future framework for cooperation? Or is the interest in the policy fading from both sides? Hennady Maksak searched for answers. In the meantime, neither the quarantine nor the summer season slowed down the political life in the region. Passions run high around the upcoming elections in Belarus and Moldova. And in Georgia, the authorities and the opposition finally agreed on the rules of the parliamentary election. The Armenian anti-corruption campaign got to the oligarch and opposition member of the parliament. Azerbaijan is again dissatisfied with the brutality of the police, this time both domestic and Russian. And in Ukraine, the presidential party in parliament failed to support the action plan of its own government. Against this backdrop, the countries of the region continue to combat the coronavirus pandemic and its economic consequences. The highlights of the Eastern Partnership life in June are in our traditional overviews of the month. //// CONTENT: Analytica: June of High Level and Low Content // Azerbaijan Condemns Police Actions, both Russian and Domestic. // Armenia’s Political Drama // Belarus: Wave of Repression at the Start of the Election Campaign // Georgia: New System Elections to Come // Year 1 or Year 0 for Moldovan Politics? // Ukraine: Economic Recession, Threats to Democracy and Dynamic Growth in Relations with Neighbors // Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum News

EAP Think Bridge - № 2020-18 - Neighbors, Partners, Problems

EAP Think Bridge - № 2020-18 - Neighbors, Partners, Problems

Author(s): Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Ludmila Nofit,Lasha Tughushi,Vadim Mojeiko,Richard Giragosian,Hanna Shelest / Language(s): English

Keywords: Vladimir Zelenskyy; Covid-19 pandemic; Georgia elections;

During the first year at the office, President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelenskyy hardly managed to set, or at least explain his team’s foreign policy priorities. However, the Eastern Partnership did not go unnoticed on his agenda in multiple dimensions: as an instrument of cooperation with the European Union, as a region as a whole, and at the level of bilateral contacts with partner countries. Which of these tracks was more important and who did Ukraine manage to work with more efficiently while ignoring other capitals so far? The results of the first year of President Zelenskyy for the Eastern Partnership are analyzed by Hanna Shelest. Meanwhile, in May, election campaigns launched in three countries of the region. In Belarus it started with the crackdown on the opposition, fines and arrests. In Moldova President Dodon started campaigning, in spite of all anti-epidemic measures. In the meantime, in Georgia it is still not clear which law will be applied to the parliamentary elections in October as the authorities and the opposition are still failing to find compromise. Last month, Armenia was one of the first to lift quarantine restrictions and immediately faced a new wave of incidence of COVID-19. The prime minister and his entire family tested positively for coronavirus. In May, Azerbaijan faced a wave of arrests, with both the opposition and government officials behind bars. And Ukraine managed to get into two high-profile international scandals and new difficulties in relations with its partners, the United States and Georgia. All these and other major developments of the month in the countries of the Eastern Partnership are analyzed in our traditional reviews. /// CONTENT: Analytics: Neighbors, Partners, Problems - First year of Zelenskyy’s Policy in the EaP Region // Azerbaijan: Continued Arrests of Opposition and Executives // Armenia Staggers & Stumbles // Belarus: Street Parade and Elections in Time of Epidemic // Georgia: Searching for a Way Out of the Deadlock // The Moldovan Political Chess Game Started // Ukraine: Diplomatic Actions, Financial Expectations and the President’s May Theses

EAP Think Bridge - № 2020-17 - Oil Crisis: A Window of Opportunity for the Eastern Partnership

EAP Think Bridge - № 2020-17 - Oil Crisis: A Window of Opportunity for the Eastern Partnership

Author(s): Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Victor Chirila,Lasha Tughushi,Vadim Mojeiko,Richard Giragosian,Zohrab Ismayil,Igor Stukalenko / Language(s): English

Keywords: Covid-19 pandemic; energy crisis;

The sharp collapse in world oil prices has opened a new window of opportunities for most of the Eastern Partnership countries. This is a chance for the “association club” countries to comply with European requirements and create the necessary energy stocks with minimal budget expenditures. In addition, the crisis has shown the importance of developing the infrastructure that connects the states of the region. The first batch of Azerbaijani oil was delivered to Belarusian refineries via Georgian and Ukrainian ports and Ukrainian oil pipelines and became a trump card in the negotiations between Minsk and Moscow. How has the oil crisis affected Russia’s behavior in the region? And what new opportunities do the Eastern Partnership countries face? We analyzed in the current issue. Nevertheless, the focus in the region, as well as in entire world, in April remained on combating the coronavirus pandemic and its economic and social consequences. Although countries are slowly starting to lift quarantine restrictions, the situation is far from normal. Azerbaijan has already felt a serious blow in the banking sector. In Armenia, small and medium-sized businesses received only a tiny share of promised support from the state. Belarus, contrary to the epidemic, held a national Saturday clean-up and is preparing for the May 9 parade. The capital is still closed in Georgia and curfews are in effect. In Moldova, the coronavirus has aggravated the domestic political crisis while the Constitutional Court blocked the package of anti-crisis measures adopted by the government. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the governmental team faces staff shortages All the main April developments in the region are analyzed in our latest digest. //// CONTENT: Analytica: Oil Crisis: a Window of Opportunity for the Eastern Partnership // Azerbaijan: Supreme Court Discharged Two Opposition Members // Armenia’s Gradual Reopening // Coronavirus in Belarus: Controversial Decisions and European Solidarity // Georgia Gradually Comes out of Quarantine // Moldova: Economic Recession Seems Inevitable // Corona Crisis in Ukraine: Long-term Consequences are Inevitable

EAP Think Bridge - № 2020-16 - Eastern Partnership vs. Coronavirus: Test for Democracy

EAP Think Bridge - № 2020-16 - Eastern Partnership vs. Coronavirus: Test for Democracy

Author(s): Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Natalia Stercul,Lasha Tughushi,Vadim Mojeiko,Richard Giragosian,Zohrab Ismayil / Language(s): English

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; Azerbaijan snapelections; Armenia constitutional court;

After a short break, the EaP Think Bridge, the network uniting Eastern Partnership think tanks resumes its work. Each month, experts from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine prepare reviews of the most important developments in the domestic and foreign policy, as well as the economy of the region. In addition, we will devote each issue to the analysis of significant events and processes. Of course, the topic of this issue is the response of the Eastern Partnership states to the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. Coronavirus has become a serious test not only for the healthcare systems of the countries of the region, but also for societies and economy. Epidemic also caused an irresistible temptation for politicians to use restrictive measures for their own benefit and the crackdown against the opposition. We analyzed the responses of the authorities and civil society. Which tactitcs are the most effective? The project benefits from support through the EaP Civil Society Forum Re-granting Scheme (FSTP) and is funded by the European Union as part of its support to civil society in the region. Within its Re-granting Scheme, the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum (EaP CSF) supports projects of its members that contribute to achieving the mission and objectives of the Forum. //// CONTENT: Analytica: Eastern Partnership vs. Coronavirus: test for democracy // Azerbaijan: Snap Elections and New Opposition Accusations // Armenia: Constitutional Court as the key battleground // Belarus: Perfect storm in Belarusian economy // Georgia: Clouds Gather over Georgian Dream // Moldova: Point of Return or Going Round in Circles // Ukraine: In the Shadow of Disasters and Dark Forecasts // Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum News: EaP CSF Re-granting Cycle 2020

EAP Think Bridge - № 2019-15 - Outlook for Eastern Partnership: view from the inside

EAP Think Bridge - № 2019-15 - Outlook for Eastern Partnership: view from the inside

Author(s): Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Laura Zghibarta,Lasha Tughushi,Yuri Tsarik,Richard Giragosian / Language(s): English

Keywords: Human Rights in Azerbaijan; 2020 new political crisis in Moldova; scandal of church in Georgia;

The entire Eastern Partnership anniversary year partner countries and European capitals summed up the results of the decade, consulted on structural changes in policy and tried to look beyond the horizon: what’s next? As expected, the idea of further cooperation and ambitions among partner states are radically different. What will Brussels do: leave the minimum common denominator acceptable to all or move to the Eastern Partnership of different speeds? Analysts present the outlook as seen from each country. Meanwhile, October was turbulent for the region. Azerbaijan saw another brutal violation of human rights and the use of force against peaceful protesters. For the Armenian government, the month was full of setbacks and scandals. For the first time, Belarus publicly demonstrated a reduction in its obligations to Russia in the military sphere and at the same time reached a compromise with NATO. The focus of Georgia happened to be the scandal around the church. Moldova seems to be entering a new round of political crisis. A turbo-decision-making regime in Ukraine causes concern. The main developments of the month in the Eastern Partnership are analysed in our digest. //// CONTENT: Armenia: А month of setbacks for Armenian government // Azerbaijan: Brutal use of force against peaceful protesters // Belarus: Common ground with the US? // Georgia: Who is behind digging up dirt? // 180 degree changes or backtracking in Moldova // Ukraine: Turbo regime without visible breakthroughs and fails

EAP Think Bridge - № 2019-14 - Eurointegration track of the new team in Ukraine: Writing one, thinking two?

EAP Think Bridge - № 2019-14 - Eurointegration track of the new team in Ukraine: Writing one, thinking two?

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Sevinç Aliyeva,Yuri Tsarik,Lasha Tughushi,Laura Zghibarta,Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Hennadiy Maksak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Anti-corruption campaign in Armenia; Moldova's pro-Russian president; Moldova's pro-European government;

The interests of the Eastern Partnership countries in September strangely settled between the West and the East. In search of partners and allies, gazes turned in different directions. The new political force in Ukraine finally concentrated all power in its hands – from the president to the parliament and the government - and took full responsibility for the country’s course. Will Eurointegration remain Kyiv’s priority, and will it maintain the dynamics? New appointments and the program of the new prime minister were studied in search of answers by Hennady Maksak. Moldova is trying to balance between Moscow and the West. The pro-Russian president and the pro-European government send completely contradictory messages to foreign partners. How long can such balancing last? For Belarus, it’s traditionally not a choice. Minsk continues to flirt with the West, while it is initialed to an agreement on deepening integration with Russia. Georgian economy suffers losses from Russian sanctions and is looking for ways to diversify markets. For the first time since the August 2008 war, the foreign ministers of the two states met. Azerbaijan is developing cooperation in the East, with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Meanwhile, the next round of negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia gave no visible results. These and other major developments of September in the Eastern Partnership are analyzed in our monthly reviews. //// CONTENT: Armenia: Anti-corruption probe widens amid court crisis // Azerbaijan: Focusing on economy // Belarus: not choosing between “West” and “East” // Georgia: Government reshuffle before elections // Tug of war in Moldova? / Ukraine: New authorities – new challenges // Analytica: Eurointegration track of the new team in Ukraine: Writing one, thinking two?

EAP Think Bridge - № 2019-13 - President Zelenskyy: 100 days on the Way to FullPower?

EAP Think Bridge - № 2019-13 - President Zelenskyy: 100 days on the Way to FullPower?

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Sevinç Aliyeva,Arseniy Sivitsky,Lasha Tughushi,Natalia Sterkul,Sergiy Gerasymchuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Zelenskyy new president of Ukraine; ACUM in Moldova; Vlad Plahotniuc; Radio Liberty in Baku;

A complete reboot of power in Ukraine and Moldova is not only a chance for changes, the request for which has grown dramatically in the societies of both countries. It is also a test for democracy. It is too early to say whether the new leaders have passed this test, but the summer has already shown some important trends. For the first time during its independence, all the power in Ukraine is concentrated in the hands of one political force. Whether President Zelenskyy and his party will withstand the temptations of monopoly rule and justify the high as ever confidence of the people, Sergey Gerasimchuk analyzed. The controversial coalition of pro-Russian socialists and the pro-European bloc ACUM seemed to be the only chance for Moldova to overthrow the regime of oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc. How long this unexpected alliance will last and whether the allies will cope with other tasks facing the country, Natalia Stercul searched for answers. Rapid, albeit difficult, changes are on in Armenia, where the prime minister set ambitious development goals for 2050 already. Meanwhile, Belarus decided on the dates of the parliamentary and presidential elections, although neither the change of power, nor the reform of the system are in question. The summer was hot in Georgia: mass protests with victims took place in Tbilisi, and relations with Russia were aggravated once again. Azerbaijan faced yet another harassment of a journalist - new charges were brought against the former director of Radio Liber ty in Baku, Khadija Ismailova. These and other summer developments analyzed in our country reviews by the experts from the Eastern Partnership. //// CONTENT: Armenia’s difficult reforms // Azerbaijan: Human rights never a priority // Belarus: Rhetoric changes, the system doesn’t // Georgia: Freedom with barbed wire // What political changes bring for Moldova // Ukraine’s hot political summer // Analytica: President Zelenskyy: 100 days on the way to full power? // New government in Moldova: Test by compromise

EAP Think Bridge - № 2019-12 - Sad Anniversary of the Eastern Partnership

EAP Think Bridge - № 2019-12 - Sad Anniversary of the Eastern Partnership

Author(s): Sevinç Aliyeva,Lasha Tughushi,Natalia Sterkul,Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Hennadiy Maksak,Richard Giragosian,Yuri Tsarik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nikol Pashinyan; border tensions betwwen Georgia and Azerbaijan;

May was the month of conclusions and careful forecasts for the Eastern Partnership. The decade of the policy was celebrated in the EU in a full sway and with fanfare, but without serious decisions on a political agenda, without a summit, without a general declaration and without a clear vision for new horizons. What this means for the region and what kind of misty contours are outlined for the cooperation in European institutions and partner countries, Hennady Maksak analyzed. Meanwhile, the Eastern Partnership is far from being calm. In Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan again called on supporters to take the streets, forgetting, probably, that he is now the leader of the state, not the opposition and the methods for the belated justice reform will have to be divergent from revolutionary. The old tensions over the border escalated in Georgia and Azerbaijan. After a short conflict, the common demarcation commission resumed its work in the disputed area. Belarus again felt the political and economic pressure of Russia in May, but it seems that Minsk took into account past mistakes and changed tactics when discussing integration issues. The political crisis in Moldova reached its apogee: the newly elected parliament has not yet been able to agree on the coalition. Democrats and socialists took the last chance to come to an agreement, otherwise extraordinary elections cannot be avoided. Ukraine, meanwhile, is preparing for dramatic changes. The newly elected president dissolved parliament and called on the Cabinet of Ministers to resign. As events develop in the Eastern Partnership, we are following in our analysts’ reviews from each of the countries of the region. //// CONTENT: Armenia: Crisis within the government // Richard Giragosian, Regional Studies Center // Azerbaijan: Tensions with Georgia over the borderline // Belarus: The planned elections and an unplanned crisis // Georgia: Political perspective through a prism of elections in one district // Moldova: A new round of political games // Ukraine before “a perfect storm” // Analytica: The sad anniversary of Eastern Partnership // Armenia’s revolution continues

EAP Think Bridge - № 2019-11 - "ZE" Time in Ukraine

EAP Think Bridge - № 2019-11 - "ZE" Time in Ukraine

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Sevinç Aliyeva,Lasha Tughushi,Natalia Sterkul,Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Maksym Koriavets,Yuri Tsarik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Vladimir Zelensky elected president; Saakashvili; Vladimir Putin; Moldova Stalemate;

The stunning victory of comedian Vladimir Zelensky at the presidential elections in Ukraine demonstrated a keen request for leaders from outside the old system. Without actually seeing any program of the candidate, or any names on the team, 74% of Ukrainians still voted for him, showing that they are ready to support anyone, as long as it’s a new person. This yet again made the neighbors worry: can such a public request be exported? In his very first winning speech, Zelensky addressed the post-Soviet republics, where leaders in power have not changed for decades: “Look, it is possible!” Whether the new president will live up to high expectations and receive the majority seats in parliament, Sergey Gerasimchuk analyzed. The permanent president of Belarus does not seem to be losing ground. He is fully preparing for the elections scheduled for next year, flirts with the pro-Russian electorate yet again and talks about changes to the constitution. However, the results of the Ukrainian vote have already forced the Belarusians to worry over economic reasons. The echoes of the Ukrainian elections reached Georgia, causing verbal altercations of ex-President Saakashvili with Russian President Putin. In Moldova, new leaders don’t seem to gain power so far as dividing portfolios and establishing the majority in the newly elected parliament is not yet possible. So the country risks getting stuck in an ever-deepening crisis. But in Armenia, the same anti-establishment new leader has been in power for almost a year now - continuing to fight corruption, acing clashes with former companions, and showing his temper, perhaps, for the first time. Over the past year and a half, the Eastern Partnership and partner states have made significant progress in harmonizing digital markets with the EU. What has already been done and what new prospects in this area open up after several important events for the region, Maksym Koryavets studies. These and other important news of April in the Eastern Partnership analyzed in our monthly reviews of domestic and foreign policy, as well as the economies of the countries of the region. //// CONTENT: Armenia: Confrontation in parliament over the challenges of business & politics // Azerbaijan: Domestic calm, international activity // Belarus: The path of mobilization // Georgia: 55 injured in clashes against hydroelectric power plant // Moldova: Stalemate — looking for the way out // Ukraine: The election is over, the economic and hybrid war with Russia is not

EAP Think Bridge - № 2019-10 - Visa-Free Whip. Prospects of Preserving a visa-free Regime for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia

EAP Think Bridge - № 2019-10 - Visa-Free Whip. Prospects of Preserving a visa-free Regime for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Lasha Tughushi,Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Kateryna Kulchytksa,Yuri Tsarik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Political prisoners in Azerbaijan; protests against government in Armenia; Belarus legislation on information; Georgia judicial reform; Crimean tatars under Russian rule;

In the Ukrainian presidential race the possible abolition of the visa-free regime with the EU in case of the victory of a “wrong” candidate became a hot topic. The dividing line was no longer on the voters’ preferences of Russia or the West, as none of the openly pro-Russian candidates had any real chances of winning. However, visa-free issue is still used in the campaigns after the first round, despite the fact that both leaders declare a course towards the West. Under what conditions can a visa free regime be, in fact, suspended not only for Ukraine, but also for the other Eastern Partnership countries? And who really walks on the edge - Kyiv, Tbilisi or Chisinau? Ekaterina Kulchitskaya analyzes. In the meantime, Belarus is only preparing for elections. The president is carrying out personnel changes and strengthening the rears in the regions. Another important step in this process was the adoption of the Information Security Concept. Neither the rights of citizens nor union obligations to Russia, but the supremacy of the state in the information space is placed first in the document. What is so unusual about this Concept and why it is needed at all, Yuri Tsarik tells. Moldova already shares out main posts after the elections. Although only three parties passed to the new parliament, they haven’t been able to reach an agreement yet. The same is the situation with the judicial reform in Georgian parliament. Since the negotiations were at an impasse, the opposition appealed to the Venice Commission for help. And the Armenian not numerous but vocal opposition strives to reduce the powers of the prime minister with no luck so far. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan saw an unprecedented amnesty, when 51 political prisoners were released. Is this a sign of the regime liberalization or the result of pressure? //// CONTENT: Mistakes & missteps: Armenian government begins to falter // Azerbaijan: Political prisoners released in mass pardon // Belarus: In the grip of the negative and seeking the positive // Georgia: the Venice Commission is to get involved in the judicial reform // Moldova: Where the three fight, the fourth wins // Ukraine elects, EU values progress, Russia persecutes crimean tatars // Analytica: The concept of Belarus information security and its long-term consequences // Visa-free whip. Prospects of preserving a visa-free regime for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia

EAP Think Bridge - № 2019-09 - Can Ukrainian courts break the curse of the least trusted institution?

EAP Think Bridge - № 2019-09 - Can Ukrainian courts break the curse of the least trusted institution?

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Sevinç Aliyeva,Yuri Tsarik,Lasha Tughushi,Serhiy Herasymchuk,Natalia Stercul,Mykhailo Zhernakov / Language(s): English

Court is the least trusted Ukrainian public institution. The situation is far from unique for other countries of the Eastern Partnership. In the five years after the Revolutionof Dignity there have been tremendous changes in thejudicial system of Ukraine, key laws have been adopted, new bodies are being formed. Nevertheless, expertsbelieve that out of all the “20 deliverables of the EasternPartnership until 2020” the progress is the most modestin this particular sphere. Why the European experience does not work well in the Ukrainian context and what alternative recipes independent experts have to offer, Mikhail Zhernakov analyzed.The lessons of Ukraine will be useful for other countries in the region where the reform of the judicial system also stumbles over the old schemes or is only being planned. For example, in Georgia heated debates around this topic in February led to the collapse of the constitutional majority in the parliament. In Armenia the judicial systems will soon be able to demonstrate all its glory, when high-profile criminal cases against the former ruling elite come to trial. In February new charges were pressed against the Ex-President Robert Kocharian, his son Serdak and the brother of another ex-President Alexander Sargsyan. In Moldova, meanwhile, another state system - the electoral one – was tested. Experts believe that in many respects precisely because of the new mixed electoral system the parliamentary elections in the country did not bring the long-awaited peace. Neither single party won a majority, and no matter what the coalition will look like, Moldova remains in a precarious position. The Belarusian president is still preparing for the upcoming elections, again openly relying largely on security forces and offering citizens a simple social contract: independence in exchange for loyalty. In Ukraine, the elections are already around the corner. This time they will be held without Russian observers. The respective law to ensure it was adopted in February. In the meantime, before voting for the president of the country, the authorities received a powerful blow to their reputation: journalists unveiled corruption in defense. Whether this information will influence the choice of Ukrainians will become clear at the end of March. //// CONTENT: “New Armenia” nears one-year mark // Azerbaijan: Inflation rate on the rise // Belarus: Preparation for elections and “freezing” of integration with Russia // Georgia: $17 mn banking scandal // Moldova: Elections are over, what’s next? // Ukraine: Economic calm and political storm // Analytica: Major trends in Moldova’s parliamentary election // Can Ukrainian courts break the curse of the least trusted institution?Court is the least trusted Ukrainian public institution. The situation is far from unique for other countries of the Eastern Partnership. In the five years after the Revolution of Dignity there have been tremendous changes in the judicial system of Ukraine, key laws have been adopted, new bodies are being formed. Nevertheless, experts believe that out of all the “20 deliverables of the Eastern Partnership until 2020” the progress is the most modest in this particular sphere. Why the European experience does not work well in the Ukrainian context and what alternative recipes independent experts have to offer, Mikhail Zhernakov analyzed. The lessons of Ukraine will be useful for other countries in the region where the reform of the judicial system also stumbles over the old schemes or is only being planned. For example, in Georgia heated debates around this topic in February led to the collapse of the constitutional majority in the parliament. In Armenia the judicial systems will soon be able to demonstrate all its glory, when high-profile criminal cases against the former ruling elite come to trial. In February new charges were pressed against the Ex-President Robert Kocharian, his son Serdak and the brother of another ex-President Alexander Sargsyan. In Moldova, meanwhile, another state system - the electoral one – was tested. Experts believe that in many respects precisely because of the new mixed electoral system the parliamentary elections in the country did not bring the long-awaited peace. Neither single party won a majority, and no matter what the coalition will look like, Moldova remains in a precarious position. The Belarusian president is still preparing for the upcoming elections, again openly relying largely on security forces and offering citizens a simple social contract: independence in exchange for loyalty. In Ukraine, the elections are already around the corner. This time they will be held without Russian observers. The respective law to ensure it was adopted in February. In the meantime, before voting for the president of the country, the authorities received a powerful blow to their reputation: journalists unveiled corruption in defense. Whether this information will influence the choice of Ukrainians will become clear at the end of March. //// CONTENT: “New Armenia” nears one-year mark // Azerbaijan: Inflation rate on the rise // Belarus: Preparation for elections and “freezing” of integration with Russia // Georgia: $17 mn banking scandal // Moldova: Elections are over, what’s next? // Ukraine: Economic calm and political storm // Analytica: Major trends in Moldova’s parliamentary election // Can Ukrainian courts break the curse of the least trusted institution?

EAP Think Bridge - № 2019-08 - Total victory of revolution in Armenia or another serious challenge?

EAP Think Bridge - № 2019-08 - Total victory of revolution in Armenia or another serious challenge?

Author(s): Sevinç Aliyeva,Richard Giragosian,Arseni Sivitski,Lasha Tughushi,Sorin Sclearuc,Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Natalia Kupriy / Language(s): English

Is the resignation of the old government enough to talk about the victory of a revolution? Unfortunately, the examples of Ukraine and Georgia indicate the opposite. Now Armenia also faces a major challenge: can the new leadership resist the temptations of the monopoly of power and really reform the state? Both the government and the parliament in Yerevan are yet again under the control of one political force, which, moreover, has no real management experience. Do the new leaders have enough will and wisdom to deal with the country’s serious internal problems and maintain a foreign policy balance? Richard Giragosian analyzes the outlook for Armenia. Meanwhile, Ukraine is slowly but surely moving along the path of reforms, including fulfilling the obligations under the document “20 Eastern Partnership Deliverables Until 2020”. Natalia Kupriy examined how things are going in the public administration reform, the key one for the country. In Georgia, the judicial reform is endangered. Its implementation is the most difficult for the state, and its current steps caused a scandal and a split in the ruling party. Reforms in Belarus are aimed at further mobilizing the state apparatus and strengthening control. In the meantime, the economy is under threat of stagnation without Russian support. The peace process to resolve the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh intensified unexpectedly between Azerbaijan and Armenia. However, real results are not yet visible and the motives of the parties are vague. Moldova and Ukraine are completely absorbed by the electoral process, which has already entered the home stretch. The most important developments of January in the Eastern Partnership are analyzed in our reviews by experts from each of the countries in the region. //// CONTENT: A “not so new” Armenian government // Azerbaijan: Diplomatic optimism over Karabakh // Belarus: Between independence and economic benefits // Georgia: Naked truth under the cover of justice // Moldova: Aleas jacta est! // Ukraine’s presidential election begins // Analytica: Total victory of revolution in Armenia or another serious challenge? // Public administration reform in Ukraine: A review of accomplishments

EAP Think Bridge - № 2018-06 - Kerch Strait incident and its implications for regional security

EAP Think Bridge - № 2018-06 - Kerch Strait incident and its implications for regional security

Author(s): Ashot Azazian,Sevinç Aliyeva,Arseni Sivitski,Lasha Tughushi,Sorin Sclearuc,Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Hanna Shelest,Yauheni Preiherman / Language(s): English

The incident in the Kerch Strait is a game changer in the Kremlin’s “hybrid” war. For the first time Russia openly attacked Ukraine, not hiding behind “polite green men” or “local protesters”. And this escalation is dangerous not only for Ukraine. Whether the security of the Eastern Partnership countries is threatened, which legal and political implications have been already caused by the aggression and which are still getting underway, Hanna Shelest analyzed. Western politicians and world leading experts are already concerned about the security in the region. Thus, it is no coincidence that, first time ever, the Munich Security Conference, the most authoritative international forum, held a meeting of the Core Group in Eastern Europe. Whatthey discussed and, most importantly, what they failed to agree upon in Minsk, Yauheni Preiherman shared. And in the meantime Belarus itself arranged military cooperation and the supply of weapons to Azerbaijan. Concurrently, the rest of the region is still absorbed in the electoral process and has pushed security issues to the background. In Armenia, revolution leader Nikol Pashinyan is preparing to get a majority in parliament and return to the prime minister’s seat. At the same time, because of the scandal and the criminal case against representatives of the former government, the country may lose its Secretary General post in the CSTO. Georgia elected the first female president. After her odious statements regarding the 2008 Russian-Georgian war, the question remains as to what position the president-elect Salome Zurabishvili will take towards the Russian Federation. And Moldova’s European partners moved from warnings to actions and froze economic assistance to the country until the parliamentary elections. What else happened in the Eastern Partnership in November, find out in the latest issue of the Digest. //// CONTENT: Armenia lost its CSTO Secretary General post? // Azerbaijan: Military cooperation with Belarus // Belarus “tightens the screws” before the election // Georgia: New president with new problems // Moldova: Facing European ultimatums // Ukraine: Heading into elections in the context of war // Analytica: Kerch Strait incident and its implications for regional security // Munich in Minsk: Stating the big regional problem

EAP Think Bridge - № 2018-05 - Georgia: The last “people’s” president

EAP Think Bridge - № 2018-05 - Georgia: The last “people’s” president

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Sevinç Aliyeva,Arseni Sivitski,Lasha Tughushi,Sorin Sclearuc,Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Hennadiy Maksak / Language(s): English

Keywords: pre-term elections in Armenia; Lukashenka; authoritarianism; Ukraine and Russia;

The Eastern Partnership region is captured by electoral issues. Election campaigns completely eclipsed everything else on domestic and foreign policy agenda of the partner-states. In the very spotlight is the last direct election of the President of Georgia. Although this post effectively performs a merely ceremonial function in the parliamentary republic, serious battles flared up, not a single political force is ready to give up. For the first time in Georgia’s history a presidential vote has gone to a second round. Why it is important not only for Georgia, but also for the whole region, Lasha Tugushi elaborated. Neighboring Armenia activated complicated constitutional steps to dissolve the parliament and move toward a snap parliamentary election. In Belarus the entire country is being used to polish up Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s image and prepare him for the upcoming election. Brutal policies and primitive means used to enforce them are the evidence of close parliamentary election in Moldova. While in Ukraine, topics and slogans popular among voters prevail in the domestic narratives, language, faith and the fight against corruption being most noticeable. Meanwhile in Luxembourg, at a meeting of Foreign Ministers of the EU and the Eastern Partnership member-states the progress in achieving the 20 EaP Deliverables for 2020 was discussed. Hennadiy Maksak representing the EaP Civil Society Forum at the ministerial shares his conclusions and recommendations for the near future of the region. //// CONTENT: Armenia moves to special pre-term elections // Azerbaijan invests big in Turkey // Belarus: All about Lukashenka’s image // Georgia: Lugar Labs in Putin’s sights // Moldova: Between democracy and authoritarianism // Ukraine: The closer to elections, the farther from Moscow // Analytica: Georgia: The last “people’s” president // Ukraine: 20 EaP Deliverables progress report