Series:PISM Strategic File

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№92: More Autonomous and Greener: A Strategy for EU Industry in the COVID-19 Era

№92: More Autonomous and Greener: A Strategy for EU Industry in the COVID-19 Era

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; COVID-19; pandemic; industry; green transition; economy; environment;

Faced with the pandemic-provoked economic crisis and spurred on by initiatives from several EU Member States and the European Parliament, the European Commission wants to strengthen and modernise European industry while making it more sustainable and greener. However, individual states remain divided about the optimal balance between self-sufficiency and economic openness, as well as the pace of the green transition. Moreover, the quest for industrial autonomy and the promotion of more sustainable and fairer world trade are likely to complicate the already tense relations with the Union’s major economic partners.

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№94: Much Ado About Very Little? Migration-Linked Development Assistance - the Cases of Poland and Norway

№94: Much Ado About Very Little? Migration-Linked Development Assistance - the Cases of Poland and Norway

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel,Viljar Haavik,Morten Bøås / Language(s): English

Keywords: Poland; Norway; migration; development;

In response to the migration management crisis that peaked in Europe in 2015-2016, the EU institutions and some European states promised to address the “root causes of migration”, with development assistance seen as an important tool in that respect. By comparing the development cooperation policies of Poland and Norway, this paper shows how the development-migration nexus has been implemented in practice by new and traditional donors alike. Despite important differences at the rhetorical level, neither state has substantially changed their development cooperation to link it directly to migration interests. This demonstrates the limited usefulness of the “root causes of migration” approach.

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№124: The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Political Stability of Russia

№124: The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Political Stability of Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Agnieszka Legucka,Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; political stability; war; impact;

Although the Russian army has suffered a series of defeats in Ukraine, the Putin regime does not feel defeated and its stability is not threatened. The ability to control the internal situation allows the Russian authorities to wage war with Ukraine for years to come in order to achieve the assumed strategic goals of subordinating Ukraine and enforcing a buffer zone on the territory of some NATO countries. This requires Western countries to take a long-term approach to deterring the Russian threat and supporting Ukraine’s ability to regain control over lost territory.

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№96: Rising Challenges for the Arctic Council: Between a Great Power Competition and Multilateralism?

№96: Rising Challenges for the Arctic Council: Between a Great Power Competition and Multilateralism?

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Arctic Council; USA; China; Russia; competition; multilateralism;

Throughout its 25 years of existence, the Arctic Council has contributed heavily to preserving the Arctic as a zone of peace. Nowadays, changes in political realities present more complex challenges. The Council wants to continue tackling environmental problems while deescalating the growing power and military competition between China, Russia, and the United States, which may spread to the Arctic. However, balancing the Council’s mandated role of regional cooperation with security management risks losing the clear focus on the pressing climate emergency and overlooking the military nexus. If this happens, the tense relations in the region may further escalate.

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№112: Israel’s High-Tech Economy

№112: Israel’s High-Tech Economy

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; high-tech; economy; policy; foreign policy;

The high-tech sector is the most important element of the Israeli economy. It is the main source of foreign investment in Israel and generates more than half of the country’s exports. The sector’s development is driven by the growing global demand for digital products and services, partly the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and for new solutions in areas like artificial intelligence (AI) or climate protection. Israel uses its technological potential to strengthen its international position and as a tool in relations with other states. At the same time, Israel’s high-tech sector model strengthens social inequalities, benefitting only a part of the citizenry.

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№125: With Charisma, Stick, and Carrot: Reviewing the Effectiveness of EU Climate Diplomacy

№125: With Charisma, Stick, and Carrot: Reviewing the Effectiveness of EU Climate Diplomacy

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; climate; policy; diplomacy; foreign policy;

Last year’s COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, was a major challenge for EU climate diplomacy, which, despite the unfavourable external circumstances (e.g., the war in Ukraine and economic turbulence), contributed to the conference’s positive outcome. The EU, as a global leader in the fight against climate change, seeks to increase its influence with external partners. Many of them would not have joined the climate action without its support. In addition to participation in policy dialogue, among the EU’s main tools of influence are various types of incentives and forms of support, as well as leverage measures such as political conditionality. However, the effectiveness of these tools is still being refined.

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№97: Dilemmas in South Korea’s Security Policy: The Need for Alliances and the Ambition for Autonomy

№97: Dilemmas in South Korea’s Security Policy: The Need for Alliances and the Ambition for Autonomy

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: South Korea; policy; autonomy; ambition; diplomacy; security;

The U.S.-China rivalry and the development of North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities are leading South Korea to seek greater security independence. Despite the alliance with the U.S., South Korea does not fully support its ally in its competition with China. Instead, South Korea is developing conventional military capabilities to deter North Korea and strengthen its position in the region. The deteriorating security environment in East Asia and doubts about the credibility of U.S. security commitments may intensify the discussion on the acquisition of nuclear weapons in South Korea. Despite the different regional specificity, some of the security dilemmas resulting from the U.S.-China rivalry are common to South Korea and the European allies of the U.S.

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№113: Kim Jong Un’s First Decade

№113: Kim Jong Un’s First Decade

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kim Jong Un; North Korea; policy; regime; China; foreign policy;

The first decade of Kim Jong Un’s rule was aimed at consolidating his power and ensuring the survival of the regime. Kim’s policy led to the development of North Korea’s military potential and deepened the country’s dependence on China. The North’s continued strengthening of nuclear deterrence and diversification of its missile arsenal will pose an increasingly serious challenge to the security of the U.S. and its allies in Asia, and to the non-proliferation regime. Despite attempts at reform, North Korea is still struggling with serious economic problems, which will be the main challenge for the Kim regime in the coming years.

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№126: Tandem Faces an Uncertain Future: Franco-German Relations in a Time of War and Inflation

№126: Tandem Faces an Uncertain Future: Franco-German Relations in a Time of War and Inflation

Author(s): Łukasz Jasiński,Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; German; economic policy; inflation; war; Russia; Ukraine; invasion;

The COVID-19 pandemic and the crises caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine represent the most serious test for the Franco-German tandem since the creation of the EU. Leaders in both countries share a conviction of the necessity of mutual cooperation, further increased by the compromise worked out around the EU’s post-pandemic recovery plan. However, the catalogue of divergences between France and Germany is long and includes crucial issues such as the shape of the common market, energy policy, and defence. A possible permanent loosening of the tandem may benefit Poland, but only on the condition that the country maintains constructive relations with France and Germany, cooperates well with EU institutions, and correctly diagnoses Polish interests in the areas of the Franco-German dispute.

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№98: Relaunching Polish-U.S. Relations in the Biden Era

№98: Relaunching Polish-U.S. Relations in the Biden Era

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Łukasz Kulesa,Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Poland; USA; foreign policy; energy; gas; Nord Stream 2; Biden;

The overall importance of the United States for Poland cannot be overstated. The defence dimension remains paramount, but there is also an increasingly visible economic and energy aspect to the relationship that is becoming more important as both sides deepen their trade relations. While controversies around Nord Stream 2 have had a negative impact, the overall positive dynamics in bilateral relations can be continued under the Biden administration. Given the broad overlap of the U.S. administration’s and Poland’s foreign and security policy goals, and their similar assessment of the challenges, there is potential for the partners to quickly bounce back from the turbulence of the first half of 2021.

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№114: Consequences of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine for the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act

№114: Consequences of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine for the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Artur Kacprzyk,Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; NATO; Ukraine; invasion; 1997; NATO-Russia Founding Act;

Russia’s revisionist policy, which culminated in the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, tore down the foundations of the Euro-Atlantic security system based on the international law and principles listed in the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. Despite Russia’s repeated violations of its commitments, NATO has been unilaterally honouring the Act, including by not stationing permanent substantial combat forces in the eastern part of the Alliance. However, given the current security situation, NATO should declare that it does not feel bound by the self-imposed military limitations of the Act. Honouring them is of no benefit in relations with Russia, impedes a response to the Russian threat, and creates unnecessary risk.

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№127: The Next Reform of Russia’s Armed Forces: Is It a New Threat or Just for Appearances?

№127: The Next Reform of Russia’s Armed Forces: Is It a New Threat or Just for Appearances?

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Armed Forces; military policy; Ukraine; aggression;

The reform plan for Russian armed forces presented by the authorities hints that Russia is preparing for a long-term armed conflict with Ukraine. Although there are many indications that it will have problems implementing all the assumptions of the reform plan, its goal is clearly to rebuild and strengthen the army in a way that will challenge NATO. For Alliance members, this will require a plan for multi-stage support of Ukraine through the Ramstein format and others, but also NATO’s further adaptation to the Russian threat.

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№99: Newest Wave of Middle Eastern Emigration to Africa

№99: Newest Wave of Middle Eastern Emigration to Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: Africa; emigration; newest wave;

The post-2019 economic crisis in Lebanon has accelerated emigration to several Sub-Saharan African states, particularly Côte d'Ivoire. The popularity of African destinations is prompted by the relative ease of access, established diaspora centres, and growing demand in numerous trades. The Lebanese add to the Syrian and Yemeni refugees, many of whom have settled on the Horn of Africa permanently, in the newest episode of Middle Eastern emigration to the continent. It has generated positive effects on local economies, although it adds to fears of extending the fallout of Middle Eastern conflicts onto host countries. The EU could apply some of the policies developed by the African states towards the Syrians or Yemenis in its direct neighbourhood.

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№115: Socioeconomic and Security Challenges to Climate Change Policy in Britain

№115: Socioeconomic and Security Challenges to Climate Change Policy in Britain

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Keywords: UK; climate change; policy; socio-economic challenges; security;

The United Kingdom remains one of the leaders in climate change policy in Europe and globally. The green transformation reached consensus among all major political parties and enjoys broad public support. Despite these favourable conditions, the public debate related to it has been revealing strong tensions over the costs, scale, and pace. In recent months, this debate has significantly deepened in the security dimension. Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine has placed the issues of control over critical infrastructure, self-sufficiency, and security of energy supplies at the centre of the British climate debate. For these reasons, the UK is an interesting case study highlighting the challenges for the climate transformation in Poland.

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№129: U.S. Defence Sector Faces Challenges Related to Support for Ukraine

№129: U.S. Defence Sector Faces Challenges Related to Support for Ukraine

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; defence; Ukraine; foreign policy;

The U.S. support for Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 so far has significantly reduced the American stockpiles of equipment and armaments prepared in the event of, among other things, a direct war with Russia or China. To fill the gaps, it is necessary, above all, to quickly increase the production capacity of the U.S. defence industry, as well as the industrial potential of American allies. Failure to implement the changes now could undermine the U.S. ability to provide long-term assistance to Ukraine while also supporting its allies in Asia and Europe, and consequently weaken the conventional deterrence of Russia and China.

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№130: Leviathan’s Dowry: Reviewing Israel’s Changing Energy and Climate Policies

№130: Leviathan’s Dowry: Reviewing Israel’s Changing Energy and Climate Policies

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; energy; climate change; policy; foreign policy;

Israel is firmly building its image as a state committed to climate protection. However, the authorities and society began to adapt to global trends in this field only in the last decade. Despite newly launched exploitation of gas deposits and technological potential, structural problems continue to be a challenge for Israel and are aggravated by high demographic growth, growing resources consumption, and inconsistent government policies. Energy and climate are also increasingly influencing Israeli foreign policy, which is visible in, for example, its contribution to the regional gas market and export of green technologies.

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№104: Promotion of the Three Seas Initiative in the Member States and Among Observer States

№104: Promotion of the Three Seas Initiative in the Member States and Among Observer States

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk,Kinga Dudzińska,Veronika Jóźwiak,Łukasz Ogrodnik,Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Three Seas Initiative; TSI; relations; cooperation;

The countries of the Three Seas Initiative (TSI) recognise it as a permanent platform for regional cooperation. Their authorities’ promotion of it in most cases has increased, although the visibility of the initiative may have decreased since the change of president in Croatia, which with Poland is a co-creator of the TSI. The promotion of the initiative has so far been independent of the political orientation of the members’ presidents and governments but have differed both in intensity and in preferred areas of cooperation. At the same time, the promotional activities have translated into only the minimum financial commitment from most of the member countries, which does not ensure a sufficient base to sustain the initiative or implement joint projects.

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№133: Options for Securing Free Trade Navigation in the Black Sea

№133: Options for Securing Free Trade Navigation in the Black Sea

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Black Sea; free trade; options; relations; foreign policy; Russia; blockade;

Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal poses again the risk of destabilising the global food market. However, it is a reflection of a much larger problem represented by the Russian year-and-a-half-long blockade of the Black Sea, which has allowed it to gradually weaken Ukraine and drive up the cost of providing it with assistance from foreign partners. The international community should not pursue reactivation of the grain deal, which granted Russia de facto control of Ukrainian exports, and instead, the common objective should be to finally break the Russian blockade and effectively secure maritime trade across the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports.

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№134: Seeking Ways to Exclude Russian Vendors from UN Procurement System

№134: Seeking Ways to Exclude Russian Vendors from UN Procurement System

Author(s): Piotr Dzierżanowski,Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; vendors; exclusion; UN; procurement system; sanctions;

The UN Secretariat and other United Nations entities are conducting their procurement procedures without excluding suppliers from Russia despite its full-scale aggression against Ukraine. States condemning the invasion are seeking to restrict Russian companies from obtaining contracts. It is currently possible by removing individual suppliers from the UN procurement system. However, the organisation lacks a systemic solution allowing the exclusion of vendors from a particular state, even one blatantly violating international law.

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№108: Norway’s and Poland’s Experience with Migration: A Comparative Perspective

№108: Norway’s and Poland’s Experience with Migration: A Comparative Perspective

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska,Viljar Haavik,Morten Bøås / Language(s): English

Keywords: Norway; Poland; migration; policy; experience; comparation;

Norway transitioned from a net emigration to a net immigration country decades earlier than Poland. However, as Poland rapidly undergoes this transformation, it seems particularly important to draw on the experience of other countries in shaping national migration policy that enables benefits both for the host country and immigrants. In this context, Norway may be seen as a source of inspiration in developing a national reception and integration system for migrants, as well as in programming development assistance. As a Schengen and European Economic Area member, Norway is also a partner in implementing EU migration policy.

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