Series:PISM Strategic File

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№128: China Adapts Policy in Response to Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine

№128: China Adapts Policy in Response to Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; aggression; Ukraine; China; foreign policy;

China perceives the Russian aggression against Ukraine as an expression of resistance to the U.S. and NATO hegemony and an important element of building a new international order that marginalises the West. Based on this, China is strengthening strategic cooperation with Russia, striving to weaken the international position of the U.S., the EU, and their partners, while testing reactions to a possible escalation of Chinese actions towards Taiwan, for example. President Xi Jinping expressed this policy course during his March visit to Russia. At the same time, China is trying to gain support from the countries of the Global South. This approach means a continuation of China’s assertive policy towards the European Union, among others.

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№100: Faked Reality: The Balance of 100 Years of the Communist Party of China

№100: Faked Reality: The Balance of 100 Years of the Communist Party of China

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Communist Party; 100th anniversary; politics;

July marks the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the Communist Party of China (CPC), which has ruled the People’s Republic of China since 1949. The celebrations are the most important element of this year’s CPC anniversary, and are aimed at underscoring the legitimacy of its power. The authorities emphasise the party’s contribution to maintaining China’s territorial integrity and strengthening its international position, as well as the economic growth and prosperity of its citizens. Of course, not all the goals have been achieved and the results are often contrary to the actions of the CCP.

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№116: The Role of Poland’s Return to UNIFIL in its Policy Towards the Middle East

№116: The Role of Poland’s Return to UNIFIL in its Policy Towards the Middle East

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Keywords: UNIFIL; Middle East; policy; Poland; peacekeeping; security;

The return of the Polish contingent to the UNIFIL peacekeeping mission in Lebanon after a 10-year break will have a positive impact on Poland’s image at the UN and confirms its commitment to global security. While cooperation between UNIFIL troops and the Lebanese Army (LAF) is progressing nearly flawlessly, Lebanon is facing a financial crisis that has led to a sharp decline in the LAF’s logistical and operational capabilities. Supporting the LAF will be important in the further fight against paramilitary organisations in UNIFIL-controlled areas, including the dominant Hezbollah, which also spreads Russian propaganda about the war in Ukraine.

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№101: “Global France”: The Significance and Consequences of Macron’s Policy in the Indo-Pacific

№101: “Global France”: The Significance and Consequences of Macron’s Policy in the Indo-Pacific

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; Emmanuel Macron; foreign policy; Indo-Pacific; USA; China;

The growing importance of the Indo-Pacific in France’s foreign policy is related to the fear that the rivalry between the U.S. and China will threaten the sovereignty of its overseas territories. France also wants to emphasise its ambitions to shape the EU as a superpower, as well as to promote economic exchange and defence cooperation with selected partners in the Indo-Pacific region. China’s confrontational attitude towards France and the strengthening of allied ties between the English-speaking powers (AUKUS) indicate that it will be increasingly difficult for the French authorities to find partners in the region willing to support its policy course independent of the U.S. and China.

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№117: Tracing the Development of EU Capabilities to Counter Hybrid Threats

№117: Tracing the Development of EU Capabilities to Counter Hybrid Threats

Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; security; hybrid threats; policy; measures; countering;

Countering hybrid threats is one of the main dimensions of the EU Strategic Compass, guiding the development of the Union’s capabilities in the field of international security. The document calls for combining the tools developed since 2016 to combat hybrid methods into an “EU Hybrid Toolbox”, which will also include new instruments and modes of action. While the primary responsibility for countering hostile hybrid activity will continue to lie with the Member States, the EU will have greater capacity to support and coordinate prevention and response. The EU approach focuses on non-military aspects and developing military capabilities to respond to hybrid crises, which increases the importance of cooperation with NATO in this area.

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№102: Afghan Refugees in the European Union: Experiences and Perspectives

№102: Afghan Refugees in the European Union: Experiences and Perspectives

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel,Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Afghanistan; EU: refugees; policy;

For years, Afghans have been one of the main nationalities reported as having irregularly crossed the EU’s external border and applied for international protection on a Member State’s territory. Although the risk of mass migration from Afghanistan to Europe after the Taliban seized power is limited for now, it will increase as the humanitarian crisis in that country grows. There may also be increased migration pressure from Afghans living in third countries. Addressing the problem at its roots will require closer cooperation between the EU and the Taliban to stabilise the state, resume development aid, and create a comprehensive offer for countries hosting Afghan refugees. The Afghan crisis will not, however, bring any breakthrough in the European asylum system negotiations.

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№118: End of the Illusion: EU Partnership Holds Firm Despite India’s Stance on Russian Aggression

№118: End of the Illusion: EU Partnership Holds Firm Despite India’s Stance on Russian Aggression

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; partnership; India; Russia; aggression; stance; foreign policy;

Different reactions to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in the European Union and India have not done immediate harm to their growing strategic partnership. The decisions to launch the EU-India Trade and Technology Council and to restart negotiations of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) point at reinforced political will in both the EU and India to deepen and strengthen cooperation. Yet, India’s position on the Russian violation of international law puts into question its commitment to the rules-based order, which can undermine the foundations of EU-India relations in the longer term. It might trigger a shift from a values-based to an interest-driven partnership. This makes the success of the FTA negotiations crucial for smoothening geopolitical differences and binding the two sides closer together.

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№131: EU Tackles Changes in Global Economic Competition

№131: EU Tackles Changes in Global Economic Competition

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; global economy; policy; competition; legislation;

Shaken by the experience of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine, the EU has adopted a series of legal acts to reduce dependence on authoritarian powers, create new instruments to defend against unfair competition, and facilitate the modernisation of the industrial sector. The smooth implementation of the green and digital transitions will be crucial to the success of these measures, but it requires additional financial resources. Furthermore, the drive to increase self-sufficiency in strategic sectors and build a low-carbon, sustainable economy is difficult to reconcile with a liberal approach focused on deregulation and short-term profit maximisation.

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№103: “Unable to Leave”: Refugee Management and the Forgotten Refugee Crises in the Lake Chad Basin

№103: “Unable to Leave”: Refugee Management and the Forgotten Refugee Crises in the Lake Chad Basin

Author(s): Viljar Haavik,Alessio Iocchi / Language(s): English

Keywords: Lake Chad Basin; refugee crises; policy; management;

The refugees in the Lake Chad Basin are at the very bottom of a hierarchy shaped by the inability of the international community to handle the global refugee crisis. Unable to leave, the Lake Chad Basin refugees have become nearly invisible as they are situated in poor and vulnerable states bearing the brunt of the crisis with little to share.

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№119: Assessing the Security Situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Status and Prospects

№119: Assessing the Security Situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Status and Prospects

Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

Keywords: BiH; security; situation; assessment; Russia; hybrid methods; Republika Srpska;

The worsening internal problems in Bosnia, especially separatist tendencies in Republika Srpska, are being used by Russia in its hybrid methods to destabilise Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and impede its integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has contributed to the resumption of the political debate in BiH about membership in NATO, which is opposed by the Bosnian Serbs, who support military neutrality. In this situation, the importance of the EUFOR Althea mission is growing. Nevertheless, its personnel should be reinforced with specialists in countering hybrid threats.

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№132: The Belarusian Vector of the Russian Threat to NATO

№132: The Belarusian Vector of the Russian Threat to NATO

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; Russia; NATO; threat; foreign policy; security;

The stationing of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus, now confirmed, and the recently announced redeployment of some Wagner Group fighters to this country is a powerful signal that what NATO is about to face to its East will be an even more multifaceted threat than before. By turning Belarus into a de facto vassal, Russia gains a whole set of new options of a hybrid, conventional and nuclear character for controlled escalation against NATO in the future. This poses a challenge for the Alliance’s approach to defence and deterrence, including in the nuclear dimension, as well as resilience-building efforts.

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№120: Together, yet Separate - Identifying the Internal Preconditions of Creating EU Climate Diplomacy

№120: Together, yet Separate - Identifying the Internal Preconditions of Creating EU Climate Diplomacy

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; climate change; diplomacy; foreign policy;

For years, the European Union has been trying to create tools to conduct external climate policy, but only with the development of the European Green Deal have these activities intensified. Despite significant progress in building the EU’s image as a leader in the field of combating climate change, as demonstrated by the recent COP27 summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, the creation of EU climate diplomacy is not yet complete. Its effectiveness is undermined by, among others, internal factors such as the complex institutional structure and conflicts of interest between Member States stemming from the challenges posed by the energy crisis. EU climate diplomacy could be internally strengthened with the appointment by the Council of an EU Special Representative for Climate.

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№105: The European Union and Migration Management in Fragile States

№105: The European Union and Migration Management in Fragile States

Author(s): Morten Bøås / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; migration; refugees; management; policy;

Irregular migration from Africa through the Sahel towards Europe has increased significantly in the last decade. Migration and migration management is no longer perceived as just a humanitarian issue but has become an integral part of the European Union’s foreign and security policy. Although the EU has used its power of a large donor to influence local migration management in the Sahel, it will have to calibrate its policy in such a way that it better responds to the needs of the local populations and does not create “invisible walls”.

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№121: EU Responses to the Potential of an Armed Conflict in the Taiwan Strait

№121: EU Responses to the Potential of an Armed Conflict in the Taiwan Strait

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; China; rivalry; Taiwan; conflict; EU: foreign policy;

The U.S.-China rivalry, development of China’s military potential, and growing nationalist Chinese rhetoric, including declarations about the future “reintegration” with Taiwan, increase the risk of an armed conflict in the Indo-Pacific in the coming years. Given the strong economic ties between EU countries and China, it is in the Union’s interests to decrease the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan while reducing its dependence on China. For this, diversification is needed in the economic dimension, including developing the EU’s production potential and strengthening cooperation to maintain Taiwan’s security, especially with the U.S. and Japan. Moreover, starting work on a catalogue of possible sanctions if there is an attack on the island may act as a deterrent to China.

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№106: The Impact of EU Development Assistance on Egypt’s Migration Policy

№106: The Impact of EU Development Assistance on Egypt’s Migration Policy

Author(s): Maciej Pawłowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Egypt; development assistance; migration; policy;

The EU treats Egypt as an important partner in countering irregular migration. Development aid is one instrument used. However, funds allocated to addressing the root causes of migration are not sufficient to effect changes in Egyptian migration policy. The observed decline of migration to the EU is, however, not a result of the aid given to Egypt but of tightened control over its borders for its own purposes. Measures to strengthen the Egyptian economy and protect the rights of migrants are necessary, but more important are the political stabilisation of the region and increasing development assistance for Horn of Africa countries.

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Britain's Global Strategy: Multiple Priorities vs. Limited Resources

Britain's Global Strategy: Multiple Priorities vs. Limited Resources

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; United Kingdom; Global Britain

With its withdrawal from the EU, the United Kingdom was faced with the need to radically rethink its position in the world. The vision of and slogan “Global Britain”, which dominated the message of the Conservatives governing the country since 2010, was finally specified in the strategic documents from 2021-23. However, Britain faces challenges with securing the necessary resources to implement this ambitious global strategy. Achieving the set goals has been hindered by, among others, internal disputes about the model of relations with the EU and more generally the scale of involvement in Europe compared to other macro-regions, as well as economic and budgetary policies. One of the main problems is the reluctance to increase defence spending significantly above 2% of GDP despite the expansion of declared aims in this field.

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