Series:PISM Spotlight

North-South Korea Tensions Increase

North-South Korea Tensions Increase

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: North Korea; South Korea; foreign policy; tensions; communication;

North Korea’s cutting of all communication lines with South Korea and blowing up the liaison office in Kaesong on 16 June are part of the months-long deterioration of relations between the countries. The North’s actions may pressure the South, divert attention from internal problems and strengthen the position of Kim Yo-jong, the sister of the North Korean leader, in the North’s hierarchy.

India - China Border Stand-off

India - China Border Stand-off

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: India; China; border; Indo-Pacific; USA: foreign policy; rivalry;

The most serious clashes on the border between China and India in 50 years threatens to destabilise the region and worsen relations between the two Asian nuclear powers. Although the risk of armed conflict is small, the tensions are significant to the U.S.-China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific.

Putin’s Vision of History and the Future of International Relations

Putin’s Vision of History and the Future of International Relations

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: International relations; foreign policy; vision of history; future; Vladimir Putin;

On 15 June, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed earlier reports that he plans to reduce U.S. forces in Germany from around 34,500 to 25,000 troops. Although the decision is related to U.S.- German disputes, it undermines the policy of deterring Russia conducted by Trump’s own administration and NATO. While the specifics and date of the drawdown are not yet known, the announcement of the plan and perspective of weakening U.S. military capabilities in Europe are already deepening transatlantic tensions.

An EU - China Summit of Differences

An EU - China Summit of Differences

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; China; Summit; Agenda 2025; policy;

The EU-China Summit was held online on 22 June. However, the failure of the sides to adopt a joint statement and the “Agenda 2025”, a new programme of bilateral cooperation, as well as the EU’s dissatisfaction with the implementation of last year’s arrangements, confirm the continuation in the Union of a sharpened policy course towards China. In the coming weeks, it is possible that the economic dimension of the EU’s China policy may tighten.

Ireland’s New Government Coalition (without the Election Winner)

Ireland’s New Government Coalition (without the Election Winner)

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ireland; government; Coalition; Micheal Martin;

On 27 June, the new coalition government of the Republic of Ireland, led by Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin, received a vote of confidence. However, it does not include Sinn Fein, which won the last general election. The formation of the government closes the longest coalition talks in decades, which lasted from the Dail Eireann elections on 8 February.

U.S. to Reduce Military Presence in Germany

U.S. to Reduce Military Presence in Germany

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA: Germany; military presence; reduction;

On 15 June, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed earlier reports that he plans to reduce U.S. forces in Germany from around 34,500 to 25,000 troops. Although the decision is related to U.S.- German disputes, it undermines the policy of deterring Russia conducted by Trump’s own administration and NATO. While the specifics and date of the drawdown are not yet known, the announcement of the plan and perspective of weakening U.S. military capabilities in Europe are already deepening transatlantic tensions.

Arrest of First Wanted Person for Darfur Crimes Strengthens ICC

Arrest of First Wanted Person for Darfur Crimes Strengthens ICC

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: Darfur Crimes; ICC: arrest; Sudan; Darfur;

Ali Kushayb, wanted since 2007 by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in connection with his role in the war in Darfur, Sudan, has been arrested and taken to The Hague. His arrest increases the likelihood of the extradition of the overthrown president of Sudan, Omar al-Bashir, and at the same time, strengthens the court in the face of the dispute with the United States.

Russian Policy on Nuclear Deterrence

Russian Policy on Nuclear Deterrence

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nuclear Deterrence; Russian policy; weapons policy;

On 2 June, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree titled the “Foundations of Russian Federation State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence”. The document indicates, among others, that Russia recognises as key to its security countering the strengthening of NATO’s Eastern Flank. It also makes clear that Russia may decide to use nuclear weapons if state functions fail because of an external attack.

Threat of the New U.S. Sanctions on Nord Stream 2

Threat of the New U.S. Sanctions on Nord Stream 2

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; sanctions; Nord Stream 2; energy; gas; threat;

Five U.S. Senators from both parties announced on 4 June that they had introduced in Congress a new bill to amend the Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Act of December 2019. The changes clarify and expand the list of activities related to the construction of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline. Entities engaged in those activities will face sanctions. This legislation still must be passed by both chambers of Congress and signed by the president, but the threat of its adoption will most likely cause new serious troubles for Gazprom with finishing and commissioning NS2.

The Reshuffle of the Belarusian Government

The Reshuffle of the Belarusian Government

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; Government; reshuffle; Council of Ministers; Dismissal;

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka dismissed the Council of Ministers on 3 June and the next day announced the appointment of a new cabinet. Roman Golovchenko, the former head of the State Military-Industrial Committee, was appointed prime minister. The reconstruction of the government is part of Lukashenko’s presidential campaign.

Romania on the Centenary of the Treaty of Trianon

Romania on the Centenary of the Treaty of Trianon

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

The centenary of the Treaty of Trianon, signed on 4 June 1920, coincides with the rejection of the next project of the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) to establish territorial autonomy for Szeklerland, a region of Transylvania mainly inhabited by Hungarians. At the sometime, the Romanian authorities and the opposition use society’s fear of Hungarian separatism to gain political capital.

Letter by Four Defence Ministers about the Future of European Defence

Letter by Four Defence Ministers about the Future of European Defence

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Europe; Defence; Policy; Defence Ministers; Letters; Foreign Policy;

On 30 May, the defence ministers of France, Germany, Italy, and Spain issued a joint letter to Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and their counterparts in the EU Member States. The letter proposes to deepen the recent reforms of the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP).

The U.S. Will Leave the World Health Organization

The U.S. Will Leave the World Health Organization

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA: WHO; leaving; COVID-19; Donald Trump;

President Donald Trump announced on 29 May that the United States is withdrawing from the World Health Organization (WHO). Although he said this decision was based on supposed Chinese control of the WHO and the body’s refusal to undertake reforms demanded by the U.S., the reason also could be his aim to divert American public attention from his administration’s negligence in the fight against COVID-19. The U.S. must let a year lapse between notification and withdrawal and pay any outstanding contributions before it fully exits. From Poland’s perspective, the U.S. leaving the WHO is unfavourable because it reduces the chances of broader reform of the body.

Chernozem for Sale - The Opening of the Land Market in Ukraine

Chernozem for Sale - The Opening of the Land Market in Ukraine

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Verkhovna Rada; law; land market; Ukraine; agriculture;

On 31 March, Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada adopted a law establishing a land market. The lifting of the almost 20-year ban on the trade in agricultural land may accelerate Ukraine’s economic growth, but access to the market for foreign investors is blocked for now.

COP26 Climate Summit in Glasgow Postponed until 2021

COP26 Climate Summit in Glasgow Postponed until 2021

Author(s): Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: COP26; Glasgow; Summit; Climate; Policy;

The Bureau of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the governments of the United Kingdom and Italy decided on 1 April to postpone this year’s COP26 climate summit until next year, without specifying a new date. It was to take place in Glasgow, Scotland, in November. Changing the date of the summit will make it harder to increase the ambition of climate action.

Can One Govern from an Intensive Care Ward? The Case of Boris Johnson

Can One Govern from an Intensive Care Ward? The Case of Boris Johnson

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Keywords: Boris Johnson; intensive care; COVID-19;

On 6 April, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was admitted to the intensive care unit of a London hospital, the first leader to fall critically ill during the COVID-19 pandemic. This has initiated a procedure for establishing a temporary chain of command.

State of Emergency and Record Economic Stimulus Package in Japan

State of Emergency and Record Economic Stimulus Package in Japan

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Japan; economy; stimulus package; emergency state; COVID-19;

On 7 April, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe declared a state of emergency in seven prefectures amid widespread coronavirus infections. He also announced a record economic stimulus package of around $990 billion.

U.S. Suspends Funding for the World Health Organisation

U.S. Suspends Funding for the World Health Organisation

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; WHO; World Health Organisation; Funding; Suspended;

President Donald Trump on 14 April announced that the U.S. will withhold funding from the World Health Organization (WHO) for 60 to 90 days. A report assessing the organisation's response to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to be created in this time and its conclusions may be critical in determining whether the funding cut is extended. For years, the U.S. has been the largest donor to the WHO budget (in 2019, its dues and voluntary contributions amounted to more than $400 million of the organisation’s $2.4 billion-a-year budget). The decision is part of a Trump administration strategy to tag WHO with shared responsibility for purportedly concealing information about the epidemic in China.

Parliamentary Elections in South Korea during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Parliamentary Elections in South Korea during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: South Korea; COVID-19; pandemic; parliament; elections;

President Moon Jae-in’s Democratic Party won the parliamentary elections held on 15 April in South Korea, winning 60% of the seats. The election results and the highest turnout in 28 years (66%) resulted from the positive social assessment of the authorities’ actions to stem the COVID-19 pandemic and the efficient organisation of the elections in difficult conditions. The ruling party’s win will provide a boost to Moon’s reform policy drive until the end of his term in 2022.

German Constitutional Court Undermines ECB Policy and Criticizes CJEU Judgment

German Constitutional Court Undermines ECB Policy and Criticizes CJEU Judgment

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Constitutional Court; ECB Policy; CJEU Judgment;

In a judgment issued on 5 May, the German Federal Constitutional Court (CC) questioned the procedures in decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB) regarding the purchase of eurozone bonds. The judgment, however, concerns not only monetary policy - crucial to combating the current economic crisis - but also the division of competences between the EU and its Member States.