Series:PISM Spotlight

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European Union-Western Balkans Summit in the Shadow of the Pandemic

European Union-Western Balkans Summit in the Shadow of the Pandemic

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Western Balkans; Summit; pandemic; COVID-19;

The summit of the EU and the Western Balkans, which was to take place in Zagreb, was held on 6 May by teleconference. It focused on Union assistance to the Balkans in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic. This reveals not only the need of the moment but also the weak dynamics of the EU enlargement process.

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German Regulator Denies Derogation for Nord Stream 2

German Regulator Denies Derogation for Nord Stream 2

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; regulator; derogation; Nord Stream 2; gas;

German regulator BNetzA on 15 May rejected the application by the Gazprom-owned company Nord Stream 2 AG (NS2AG) for a derogation for Nord Stream 2 (NS2). This meansNS2 has not been granted exceptions from the main rules of the EU’s Gas Directive. As a result, Gazprom will have limited control over the pipeline, which must function in line with EU law (as Poland and others have argued). However, NS2AG plans to appeal the decision. If unsuccessful in court, Gazprom and the Russian authorities might try to circumvent the Gas Directive.

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Eurobonds, Finally - Germany and France Propose New Support for the EU Economy

Eurobonds, Finally - Germany and France Propose New Support for the EU Economy

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Eurobonds; EU; Germany; France; Economy;

On 18 May, France and Germany presented their initiative to finance economic recovery in the EU after the COVID-19 crisis by issuing joint bonds. This is a chance for a breakthrough in the ongoing dispute over support methods for pandemic-hit economies. France and Germany also sent a political signal: the Elysian alliance still wants to play a leading role in the EU.

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U.S. Withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty

U.S. Withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty

Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Open Skies; Treaty; Withdrawal;

On 21 May, President Donald Trump announced the U.S. will withdraw from the Treaty on Open Skies (OST), a multilateral agreement that allows confidence-building observation flights over the territories of its parties. The U.S. has accused Russia of repeated violations of the treaty. The validity of the accusations aside, the withdrawal will be used by Russia in propaganda and may be a factor pushing some European states to develop an independent approach to arms control with Russia.

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Chinese Government’s Economic Goals for 2020

Chinese Government’s Economic Goals for 2020

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; economy; policy; strategy; goals; 2020;

In a government work report presented on 22 May during a session of the 13th Chinese parliament, Premier Li Keqiang did not specify the 2020 economic growth target, the first time that has happened since 1990. The reason is the uncertain global economic situation because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The government plans to increase economic stimulus measures to primarily stabilise the labour market.

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Russia-Ukraine Gas Transit Deal

Russia-Ukraine Gas Transit Deal

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; gas; transit; deal; Nord Stream 2; EU; policy;

An agreement on the future of gas transit via Ukraine was reached by the Ukrainian and Russian parties on 30 December and it should be seen as a success of Ukraine and the European Commission. The application of EU rules means a more transparent gas transit system to the European Union. The successful outcome of the negotiations for Ukraine also strengthens Poland’s arguments about the need to apply transparent EU rules to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline (NS2).

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U.S. Secretary of State Visits Minsk

U.S. Secretary of State Visits Minsk

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; secretary; Minsk; visit; Belarus; energy; foreign policy;

On 1 February, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Minsk. He met with President Alexander Lukashenka and Foreign Minister Uladzimir Makei. It was the first visit by an American secretary of state to Belarus in 26 years. Pompeo’s visit demonstrates U.S. interest in cooperation with Belarus, including in the energy sphere.

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Austria’s Christian Democrats and Greens Form Government

Austria’s Christian Democrats and Greens Form Government

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Austria; Christian Democrats; Greens; government;

In Austria, the first government of the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and the Green Party has been formed. Its swearing-in on 7 January marked the end of the transitional cabinet, functioning since May last year, of Chancellor Brigitte Bierlein and the return to this position of Sebastian Kurz, the ÖVP leader. Significant differences between the coalition partners—mainly on the subject of migration - required essential programme compromises. The Greens’ entry into the government will translate into even more ambitious Austrian climate policy.

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The Formation of the Left-wing Coalition Government in Spain

The Formation of the Left-wing Coalition Government in Spain

Author(s): Maciej Pawłowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Spain; left-wing coalition; formation; government; PSOE; UP;

On 7 January, the Spanish parliament supported forming a government led by Pedro Sánchez under the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) and left-wing Unidas Podemos (UP). This marks the end of a 10-month-long period of temporary government and the beginning of the first coalition cabinet since 1939. However, achieving the new government’s programme will depend on support from separatist parties, something that can weaken the government’s position in the country and in European politics.

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Taiwan’s Elections

Taiwan’s Elections

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Taiwan; elections; president; parliament; China; foreign policy;

President Tsai Ing-wen from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which opposes mainland policy, won re-election and secured a majority in the legislature in the presidential and parliamentary elections in Taiwan on 11 January. The results mean failure of the PRC’s policy towards Taiwan, signal a decrease in Taiwan's dependence on mainland China, and dismissal of the prospect of reunification under China’s “one country, two systems” principle.

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Causes and Potential Consequences of Iran’s Downing of a Ukrainian Airliner

Causes and Potential Consequences of Iran’s Downing of a Ukrainian Airliner

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Iran; Ukraine; airliner; downing; causes; consequences;

After the start of an investigation, on 11 January 2020, the government of Iran officially admitted its forces had mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian International Air passenger plane (Flight PS752) three days earlier, killing all 176 passengers and crew. The tragedy occurred during the escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran and happened a few hours after an Iranian ballistic missile attack on American bases in Iraq in retaliation for the killing of Gen. Qasem Soleimani. The shooting down of Flight PS752 may have a serious impact on Iran’s image and international position and the government’s internal legitimacy.

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Reconstruction of the Russian Government

Reconstruction of the Russian Government

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; government; reconstruction; foreign policy;

On 15 January, the same day that Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a speech to both houses of parliament, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and the cabinet resigned. Medvedev is succeeded by Mikhail Mishustin, the former head of the Federal Tax Service (FTS). The reconstruction of the government will not change Russian policy, as the president remains responsible for policymaking until the end of his term in 2024.

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A Preliminary De-escalation of the Trade Dispute between the U.S. and China

A Preliminary De-escalation of the Trade Dispute between the U.S. and China

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak,Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA: China; trade; foreign policy; dispute;

The United States and China concluded a preliminary trade agreement (“phase-one deal”) on 15 January. Both sides consider it a success. China has agreed, among others, to increase purchases of U.S. goods by $200 billion in two years and the U.S. will refrain from raising customs duties on imports from China. The scope of the contract is narrower than originally planned by the Trump administration.

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A Gift for Israel: The U.S. Peace Plan

A Gift for Israel: The U.S. Peace Plan

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Peace Plan; Israel; Foreign Policy;

The U.S. plan for Israel and Palestine will not lead to peace. If implemented without negotiations with the Palestinians, it will violate international law. In the short term, it will instil Israeli occupation and weaken American mediating capabilities. In the long term, it may, however, result in greater European efforts towards a just peace.

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Guidelines for the security of 5G infrastructure in the European Union

Guidelines for the security of 5G infrastructure in the European Union

Author(s): Marta Makowska,Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; ICT: 5G; infrastructure; security; guidelines;

The European Commission (EC) has published a “toolbox” of rules to guarantee the security of 5G infrastructure in Europe. They are intended to minimise the risks of espionage and leaks of sensitive data. The document is the result of an agreement between the Member States on cooperation criteria with contractors for 5G construction in the EU but it does not exclude any particular entity from the development of fifth-generation telecommunications infrastructure.

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Waiting for a New Leader - the Resignation of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer

Waiting for a New Leader - the Resignation of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; CDU; Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer; resignation;

The consequence of the political crisis in Thuringia is Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer’s resignation as CDU president and from seeking the party’s nomination to be the chancellor candidate during the next elections to the Bundestag. Her decision increases the risk of the break-up of the government coalition. This threatens to destabilise the internal situation in Germany and weaken its position in the EU.

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The Results and Significance of the Iranian Parliamentary Elections

The Results and Significance of the Iranian Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Marcin Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Iran; parliament; elections; results; significance;

On 21 February, elections to the unicameral and 290-member parliament of Iran - the Islamic Consultative Assembly (Majles) - were held. Despite the officially low turnout of 42.5%, the work of counting stations was extended by an additional six hours and the announcement of the election result was also delayed. The elections were manipulated at all stages of the process and boycotted by a large part of the public, which may be a sign of the further deepening of the internal crisis. Iranians are disappointed in the ineffectiveness of the political regime to resolve real problems in society and the abuses of the security apparatus.

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Trump in India - Building a Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership

Trump in India - Building a Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA: India; Foreign Policy; Donald Trump;

The first state visit of U.S. President Donald Trump to India on 24 - 25 February confirmed the importance of India as a key strategic partner of the Americans, despite the unresolved trade disputes. Trump also aimed to win over some voters in the November presidential election among the Indian diaspora in the U.S.

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The Taliban-U.S. Agreement - Still a Long Way to Peace

The Taliban-U.S. Agreement - Still a Long Way to Peace

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Afghanistan; USA; Taliban; Agreement;

The agreement signed in Qatar on 29 February does not end the war in Afghanistan but facilitates the withdrawal of foreign troops from the country. The deal weakens the official authorities in Kabul and strengthens the Taliban ahead of planned peace talks. It may, however, increase President Donald Trump’s re-election chances.

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The Turkish-Russian Agreement on Syria

The Turkish-Russian Agreement on Syria

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka,Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; Russia; Syria; Agreement;

During a meeting of the presidents of Turkey and Russia, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Vladimir Putin, which took place on 5 March in Moscow, a ceasefire in Idlib was established. The agreement postpones the takeover of the entire province by the Syrian army of Bashar al-Assad but it sanctions its territorial gains in Idlib’s south. In the following weeks, the situation in Idlib will remain unstable. Turkey, fearing the resumption of Assad’s offensive, will strengthen its efforts to get EU and NATO support for establishing a security zone in the north of Idlib.

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