Series:ESI Discussion Papers

AUTONOMY, DEPENDENCY, SECURITY: The Montenegrin Dilemma

AUTONOMY, DEPENDENCY, SECURITY: The Montenegrin Dilemma

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: independence of Montenegro;

Since the Montenegrin government distanced itself from the president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic, during last year’s Kosovo war, Montenegro has found itself in the international spotlight. Montenegrin politicians have been courted by the West. The United States and the European Union have offered rapid and substantial financial aid – more than 300 million German marks in 1999 and 2000 – to cushion the economic effects of the conflict and the country’s international isolation. NATO officials have repeated ominous but ambiguous warnings to Milosevic not to intervene. Despite this, however, little is know about how Montenegrin society really functions .… The implication is that Western policy in Montenegro should be primarily policy for Montenegro,rather than part of an international campaign to unseat Milosevic. If the international communityfocuses on the needs of Montenegrin society in the coming years, the imperatives are to preserve afunctioning democratic system where elections continue to matter, and to set about the Herculean taskof economic transition.

THE SURPRISING FRONT-RUNNER. Moldova before and after the Vilnius Summit

THE SURPRISING FRONT-RUNNER. Moldova before and after the Vilnius Summit

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldova economy; Moldova Democracy;

In the past year Moldova has been praised by European leaders for its reforms. Speaking at the EU-Moldova forum in October 2012, EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Füle called Moldova “the Eastern Partnership’s most dependable model student.”1 He added: “From an uncertain supporter of the Eastern Partnership, it has turned into its most prominent member, into a staunchly committed and reliable partner.” || Moldova’s poverty is structural: it is too rural, and produces too few things that people in other countries might want to buy. For it to catch up huge changes are needed – investments in infrastructure, in agriculture, in industry, in the skills of its people. For this to happen there is a need for both confidence in the future and a clear sense of direction. This has happened before, though, and Moldovans can look across the Prut to see the effects of such a perspective. Will there be a similar perspective for them soon? || The prospects of obtaining visa-free travel and signing the Association Agreement and DCFTA soon are both good news. At the same time Moldova desperately needs economic development and increased foreign direct investment. For this a clear long-term EU membership perspective would be crucial. If the EU wants Moldova to become a true success story in the Eastern neighbourhood, it should be prepared to go further.

TRUST AND TRAVEL. How EU member states can ease the visa burden for Turks

TRUST AND TRAVEL. How EU member states can ease the visa burden for Turks

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Schengen; visa-free Trukish travel;

Up until the 1980s Turkish citizens could travel without a visa to all Western European countries except Greece. Following the 1980 military coup, these countries introduced a visa requirement for Turkish citizens. In the 1990s, with the establishment of the Schengen zone, the visa requirement became common EU policy. || In December 2013 the European Commission handed over a roadmap towards visa-free travel. Now Turkey has to meet a series of requirements that the roadmap sets out. If it does, the EU has promised to abolish the Schengen short-stay visa requirement for Turkish citizens. || Turkey now has to meet the requirements that the roadmap sets out. They concern passport security, border management, asylum policy and respect for human rights, the fight against illegal migration and various forms of organised crime, as well as cooperation with the EU. However, there are widespread concerns in Turkey that EU member states might still vote against lifting the visa requirement even if Turkey meets all roadmap conditions.

THE DIFFERENCE LEADERSHIP MAKES. Lessons from Croatia’s EU accession process

THE DIFFERENCE LEADERSHIP MAKES. Lessons from Croatia’s EU accession process

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Croatia's EU-accession; Franjo Tudjman; ICTY; HDZ; Stipe Mesic;

In the end it seemed almost inevitable. Croatia submitted its EU membership application to the Greek EU presidency in early 2003. At a referendum in January 2012 two thirds of Croatian voters supported their country’s accession to the European Union as its 28th member. The referendum came after national elections in December 2011 in which all of the main political parties had backed EU membership. Although some observers noted that less than half of all eligible voters participated in the referendum, given the large number of “dead souls” in the voting registry and the fact that many Croatians living abroad did not vote, the percentage of resident voters who participated appears to have been above 61 per cent. Turnout was thus considerably higher than in Hungary (46 per cent) and comparable to Slovenia (60 per cent) and Poland (59 per cent). The January 2012 referendum concluded a decade in which successive Croatian governments had all assumed that there was no credible alternative to meeting the conditions put forward by the EU to become a full member. || But there was nothing inevitable about Croatia’s evolution: it took significant political leadership, as well as courage and perseverance, to repudiate the values and policies of the 1990s. It also took, at key moments during this period, smart EU interventions. The Croatian experience, as well as the lessons it holds for the rest of the Western Balkans, is worth exploring in more detail.

TIMISOARA 2.0

TIMISOARA 2.0

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Dan Diaconu, deputy mayor of Timisoara, has an unusual problem. “Unemployment in our city stands at one per cent,” the 36-year-old, elected in 2012, explains. “This is a problem for attracting new investors. Some are scared away by this fact.” In conditions of near full employment, labour is hard to find. Yet this is a problem that most European cities would long to have. Diaconu concedes, with no sign of enthusiasm, that in his city of 320,000 people, “the economic indicators show that indeed there is no big crisis in Timisoara today.” || (This essay is part of the “Return to Europe Revisited” project supported by ERSTE Foundation. Following the award-winning twelve-part documentary series “Return to Europe” (2008/12), we revisit all countries covered by the series.)

MEASURING CORRUPTION. The case for deep analysis and a simple proposal

MEASURING CORRUPTION. The case for deep analysis and a simple proposal

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU soft power; anti-corruption; EU supervision;

In its annual progress reports the European Commission offers descriptions of the institutional and legal infrastructure that play a role in combatting corruption in the seven accession countries. Such analysis matters: flawed laws, under-resourced institutions and ill equipped officials will obviously generate problems. But studying and improving the institutional and legal infrastructure is not an end in itself: its ultimate purpose is to change behavior. Even the best anti-corruption agency and even the most eloquent anti-corruption action plan are only the means to an end, not the end itself. || This raises the question of assessment of impact. Can the actual incidence of corruption in different walks of social life be fairly established? Can the impact of anti-corruption reforms be captured, measured, and the outcomes compared? || ESI believes that the European Commission has a powerful tool at its disposal to do just this. It is, however, a tool that is not currently used in the context of accession.

Why people don’t need to DROWN IN THE AEGEAN. A policy proposal

Why people don’t need to DROWN IN THE AEGEAN. A policy proposal

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: refugees in the Aegan;

The situation on the European Union’s external borders in the Eastern Mediterranean is out of control. In the first eight months of 2015, an estimated 433,000 migrants and refugees have reached the EU by sea, most of them – 310,000 – via Greece. The island of Lesbos alone, lying a scant 15 kilometres off the Turkish coast and with population of 86,000, received 114,000 people between January and August. And the numbers keep rising. The vast majority of people arriving in Greece during this period were Syrians (175,000). They are all likely to be given refugee status in the EU if they reach it; in 2014, the recognition rate of Syrian asylum applications was above 95 percent. But to claim asylum in the EU, they need to undertake a perilous journey by land and sea. || In the face of this massive movement of people – the largest in Europe since the end of the Second World War – there have been two diametrically opposed responses.

THE MERKEL PLAN. Restoring control; retaining compassion. A proposal for the Syrian refugee crisis

THE MERKEL PLAN. Restoring control; retaining compassion. A proposal for the Syrian refugee crisis

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: agreement with Turkey on refugees;

This paper outlines how an agreement between Germany and Turkey could have an immediate and dramatic impact on the Syrian refugee crisis. It would restore control over Europe’s south-eastern border without sacrificing compassion for the refugees. But with the far right resurgent across Europe, the window of opportunity for decisive action is closing fast. || The paper explains how the various practical and legal aspects of this agreement could be resolved. It explains why, in the face of escalating anti-migrant and anti-Muslim rhetoric from far right parties across Europe, an early solution is in the vital interests of both Germany and Turkey.

PANGLOSS IN BRUSSELS. How (not) to implement the Aegean Agreement

PANGLOSS IN BRUSSELS. How (not) to implement the Aegean Agreement

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU-Turkey agreement on refugees;

On 28 September the European Commission published its third report on the implementation of the EU-Turkey Agreement. This follows its first April Report and its second June Report. Like these, the September Report argues that the Commission is on top of its game in addressing the refugee situation in the Aegean; that policy makers need not worry; that problems are identified, and that they are being resolved. This has also been the message of the Commission in a series of recent interviews with major European media. || A closer analysis of the Commission’s report shows how fragile the EU-Turkey agreement has become, and how little thought and effort is being put into overcoming obvious problems in order to make it work. When it comes to both implementation and communication the current effort falls dramatically short.

NAVIGATING THE AEGEAN. What the EU ought to know, and say, about refugees and the Greek islands. A policy proposal

NAVIGATING THE AEGEAN. What the EU ought to know, and say, about refugees and the Greek islands. A policy proposal

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: refugees in Aegean;

This paper has one simple purpose: it is an appeal to European institutions to improve their reporting on what is actually happening on Lesbos, Chios, and other Greek islands. The information that is needed to assess the implementation of the EU-Turkey agreement is straightforward and should be presented in a weekly update. The fact that this does not exist yet is troubling. It raises the possibility that European institutions do not have this information. It also suggests that the implementation of the EU-Turkey agreement is not proceeding as foreseen, and that the EU support mission to Greece resembles a vessel sailing in the dark, without instruments, without a captain, which might hit a rock at any moment.

Pangloss in Brussels. How (not) to implement the Aegean Agreement

PANGLOSS BRÜKSEL’DE. Ege Anlaşması nasıl doğru (ya da yanlış) hayata geçirilebilir?

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Turkish

Keywords: EU-Turkey agreement on refugees;

On 28 September the European Commission published its third report on the implementation of the EU-Turkey Agreement. This follows its first April Report and its second June Report. Like these, the September Report argues that the Commission is on top of its game in addressing the refugee situation in the Aegean; that policy makers need not worry; that problems are identified, and that they are being resolved. This has also been the message of the Commission in a series of recent interviews with major European media. || A closer analysis of the Commission’s report shows how fragile the EU-Turkey agreement has become, and how little thought and effort is being put into overcoming obvious problems in order to make it work. When it comes to both implementation and communication the current effort falls dramatically short.

THE CHAPTER ILLUSION. For honesty and clarity in EU-Turkey relations

THE CHAPTER ILLUSION. For honesty and clarity in EU-Turkey relations

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU-Turkey-relation; Turkish EU-accession; Cyprus;

What can the EU do in the face of politicised justice, human rights violations and disregard for basic principles of the rule of law in Turkey today? What actions might make a difference? It is easy to state what should be avoided: silence in the face of repression, certainly; cutting links to Turkey, obviously; drawing “red lines” which cannot be defended because the EU lacks the tools or the consensus to do so, of course. || To take one emblematic issue: why does the EU not open chapter 23 (on “Judiciary and fundamental rights”) if it is concerned about the state of the rule of law and fundamental rights in Turkey? This is what members of the Turkish government keep asking. The conventional answer is: Cyprus and its veto. But this answer hides a much more important question: what if, due to some change of heart in Nicosia, chapter 23 were to be “opened” tomorrow?

“AMSTERDAM IN THE MEDITERRANEAN”. How a Dutch-style asylum system can help resolve the Mediterranean refugee crisis

“AMSTERDAM IN THE MEDITERRANEAN”. How a Dutch-style asylum system can help resolve the Mediterranean refugee crisis

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Asylum seekers; right of asylum;

Like French president Emmanuel Macron, leaders across the EU are looking for a fast, effective and humane asylum system; a system which determines quickly, but thoroughly, who needs protection; creates disincentives for people to get into boats; and manages to return those who are found not to need protection within a short period of time. || The question is how to make this happen. One place to look to for concrete inspiration is the Netherlands. There most asylum claims are decided within less than two months including appeals in a procedure fully respecting the rights of refugees. Asylum seekers are supported from the beginning by a lawyer paid for by the state and can state their claim in at least two comprehensive interviews.

“AMSTERDAM IN THE MEDITERRANEAN”. How a Dutch-style asylum system can help resolve the Mediterranean refugee crisis

“AMSTERDAM NEL MEDITERRANEO”. Come il sistema d’asilo olandese può contribuire a risolvere la crisi migratoria nel Mediterraneo

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Italian

Keywords: right of asylum; asylum seekers;

Like French president Emmanuel Macron, leaders across the EU are looking for a fast, effective and humane asylum system; a system which determines quickly, but thoroughly, who needs protection; creates disincentives for people to get into boats; and manages to return those who are found not to need protection within a short period of time. || The question is how to make this happen. One place to look to for concrete inspiration is the Netherlands. There most asylum claims are decided within less than two months including appeals in a procedure fully respecting the rights of refugees. Asylum seekers are supported from the beginning by a lawyer paid for by the state and can state their claim in at least two comprehensive interviews.

DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE. Why Bosnian democracy will not end this October

DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE. Why Bosnian democracy will not end this October

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bosnian elections; Bosnian election-law reform;

In December 2016 the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina declared parts of the national election law unconstitutional. Since then leading Bosnian Croat politicians have warned that this might make the implementation of the results of the upcoming October 2018 elections impossible. They claim that only a last-minute agreement on a new election law might prevent a deep crisis. These warnings are misleading. Bosnian democracy will not end in October. There is no institututional crisis. There is no reason to adopt changes to the Bosnian election law in a hurry a few months before elections. This short paper explains the background to Bosnia’s latest fake crisis – what it is about and why there is no need to intervene – in simple answers to seven questions.

THE DISCIPLINARY SYSTEM FOR JUDGES IN POLAND. The case for infringement proceedings

THE DISCIPLINARY SYSTEM FOR JUDGES IN POLAND. The case for infringement proceedings

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Polish reform of juridical system; infringement of EU standards;

This opinion accompanies the ESI report “Under Siege: Why Polish courts matter for Europe”.It sets out the legal basis for the European Commission to initiate infringement proceedings againstPoland in respect of recent reforms to the disciplinary system for Polish judges.

THE EU-TURKEY STATEMENT three years on

THE EU-TURKEY STATEMENT three years on

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

EU assistance for refugees in Turkey is one of the provisions of the EU-Turkey Statement that is being implemented successfully. Turkey currently hosts around 4 million refugees of whom 3.6 million are Syrians. The EU promised a total of 6 billion Euro – 3 billion for 2016/17 and another 3 billion for 2018/19 – to help these refugees. Out of the total, 4 billion come from the EU budget and 2 billion from EU member states based on their GNI. The aid focuses on humanitarian assistance (46%), education (28%), health (15%), municipal infrastructure (schools, health services, water supply, sewage systems, waste disposal) and socio-economic support (skills development, training). The vast majority of the projects are implemented by international organisations such as the World Food Programme, UNICEF, UNHCR and the Danish Refugee Council, among many others.

HOW ARE THEY DOING? European Commission assessments of North Macedonia, Serbia and Albania (April 2019)

HOW ARE THEY DOING? European Commission assessments of North Macedonia, Serbia and Albania (April 2019)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

HOW TO IMPLEMENT THE EU-TURKEY STATEMENT. Phase II - Key facts and key steps

HOW TO IMPLEMENT THE EU-TURKEY STATEMENT. Phase II - Key facts and key steps

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: refugees in Turkey, EU-Turkey-agreement;

THE AEGEAN TRAGEDY. Key facts and key steps

THE AEGEAN TRAGEDY. Key facts and key steps

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey-EU-agreement on refugees; refugees in Aegean;