Series:ESI Discussion Papers

THE STABILITY PACT and Lessons from a Decade of Regional Initiatives

THE STABILITY PACT and Lessons from a Decade of Regional Initiatives

Author(s): Gerald Knaus,Marcus Cox,Minna Järvenpää / Language(s): English

In the 1990s, every historical turning point led to the creation of regional organisations in South Eastern Europe. The end of the Cold War brought the Central European Initiative (CEI), an Italian-Austrian initiative with a secretariat in Triest (1989) and the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC), a Turkish initiative with a secretariat in Istanbul. Following the Bosnian War, the European Council initiated the Royaumont Process (1995), soon sponsored mainly by Greece, while a US-led initiative led to the formation of the South East European Cooperative Initiative (SECI), based in Vienna (1996). In 1988, the first regional summit of Foreign Ministers of South Eastern Europe (SFMSEE) was held in Belgrade, to be followed by a summit in Tirana (1990). This tradition was revived after the Bosnian War in 1996. The Kosovo crisis led to the establishment of the Stability Pact Coordinator’s Office, in many ways only the latest, most spectacularly launched, and most ambitious regional initiative.

Interim Evaluation of Reconstruction and Return Task Force (RRTF). MINORITY RETURN PROGRAMMES in 1999

Interim Evaluation of Reconstruction and Return Task Force (RRTF). MINORITY RETURN PROGRAMMES in 1999

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bosnian refugees returm;

Building on the often frustrating experience of the first two years of the peace process, the RRTF developed a methodology to support minority returns which, in the course of this year, following the expansion of the RRTF field network, it has applied consistently throughout the country. This methodology consists of locating "return axes", identifying groups of displaced persons eager to return and working with them; following the flow of returns, responding to unexpected movements of displaced persons when they attempt to return home off their own bat with flexible, financial aid; negotiating "beach-head" returns, brokering deals by which returnees can establish themselves in their former communities; identifying security risks, anticipating problems so as to be able to defuse delicate situations; and information management, monitoring events on the ground closely and sharing knowledge among the international agencies.In response to the many obstacles to refugee return encountered during the first year and a half of the Bosnian peace process, an inter-agency body, the Reconstruction and Return Task Force or RRTF, was created to oversee the process. Largely as a result of the work of this body and the efforts of its staff, the numbers of minority returnees, that is members of an ethnic group other than that controlling the territory, as well as the destinations to which they are going have steadily increased in the course of the past two years. While overall figures remain disappointing, 1999 has seen the opening of many hitherto closed areas for minority returnees. This paper seeks to assess the RRTF’s performance during 1999. It examines RRTF structures, that is the origins and concepts behind the RRTF; the methodology and delivery mechanisms employed by the RRTF; relations between the RRTF and donors; and the various external constraints on operations. It evaluates the RRTF’s 1999 programmes considering returns to vacant areas, so-called phase one returns, as well as returns to contested space. And it concludes with an analysis of the tasks facing the RRTF next year.

MONTENEGRO: A Balancing Act

MONTENEGRO: A Balancing Act

Author(s): Kimberly Bender,Kristof Bender / Language(s): English

Keywords: Montenegro Security 1999;

The Interior Ministry appears confident that it can keep the situation in Montenegro under control for the time being despite the organising of demonstrations, local council gatherings and parallel security forces by Milosevic-supporters in Serb-dominated areas in the North.The government's confident security assessment is based on three main factors: (i) the fact that Milosevic did not use the opportunity of the Kosovo crisis to attack the Montenegrin government, (ii) expectations for Western assistance as symbolised by nearby KFOR and SFOR troops, and (iii) an assessment that the Yugoslav Army is internally divided.The most pressing issue for the government is coping with the attempts at economic destabilisation from Belgrade at a time when Western assistance remains scarce. If the main obstacle for becoming a recipient of Western assistance is seen to be belonging to a joint state with Serbia, there will be increasing calls for separation.The government has not spoken openly about the possibility of moving towards independence and has indicated its willingness to bide its time for a few more months within the present Federal arrangement with Serbia but will then be forced to hold a referendum on Montenegro's status.International actors and donors must use this time to show concrete support for Montenegro and offer it a perspective of trade preferences. Ways of providing soft security guarantees through an increased international presence must also be explored.

Reshaping international priorities in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Part One: BOSNIAN POWER STRUCTURES

Reshaping international priorities in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Part One: BOSNIAN POWER STRUCTURES

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: political stagnation in Bosnia-Hercegowina; Western Balkans development;

Nearly four years after the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) came into force in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the international community finds itself in an untenable position. Frustration with the slow rate of progress has drawn international organisations into the intricacies of decision-making at all levels of the Bosnian political system. However, this increasingly intrusive role is not achieving breakthroughs on substantive issues, or contributing to a self-sustaining peace process. At its last meeting, the Steering Board of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC) remained .deeply worried about the lack of progress. At the same time, the responsible States and international organisations have already begun to transfer scarce resources, both funding and personnel, away from Bosnia to Kosovo and other conflict areas. These factors suggest the need for an urgent reassessment of international strategy and priorities in Bosnia.

MONTENEGRO: Issues and Questions Background Briefing 1999-05

MONTENEGRO: Issues and Questions Background Briefing 1999-05

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

There is a real threat of parallel structures consolidating in parts of Montenegro governed by the SNP (the pro-Milosevic party of Momir Bulatovic), as municipalities in the area are passing resolutions to assert their autonomy from Podgorica, should the government in Podgorica move towards independence. This was timed to coincide with the beginning of negotiations between the governments. - Even holding a potential referendum on independence in these areas is considered impossible by some observers. The implementation of new laws on state enterprises and the regulations to control currency transfers across the borders will indicate the extent of the authority of the Podgorica administration.The Montenegrin Interior Ministry continues to remain confident that it can maintain control of a complex security situation. While tribal assemblies (plemenske skupstine) in the Northern municipalities continue to meet, they have lost some of their initial momentum since September. - The economic and social situation continues to deteriorate. There is fear that social unrest and strikes at major enterprises in protest at delays in payments of wages and social benefits could be instrumentalists to weaken the hold of the Podgorica government.

Reshaping international priorities in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Part Two: INTERNATIONAL POWER IN BOSNIA

Reshaping international priorities in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Part Two: INTERNATIONAL POWER IN BOSNIA

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: re-constitution of Bosnia-Hercegowina;

This paper examines the sources of international power and influence in Bosnia, and how they can be mobilised in support of the international agenda. It studies the most basic forms of international power - the coercive power of the military; financial power; and the power to act as gatekeeper to Europe. It also studies the institutional tools which have been developed to wield international power, in particular the mandate of the High Representative. The international community has the potential to exercise considerable power in Bosnia. A study of the most important successes in the peace process shows that, even at its current level of resources, the international community is capable of achieving lasting results. However, it has been slow at learning the lessons of its successes, and at understanding the sources of its influence. The limited progress in the peace process is attributable in large part to the failure of the international community to understand international power as a resource which must be used strategically in support of the peace mission.

TAKING ON THE COMMANDING HEIGHTS. Integration of network industries as a tool of peace building

TAKING ON THE COMMANDING HEIGHTS. Integration of network industries as a tool of peace building

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: re-constitution of Bosnia-Hercegowina;

The key international objectives in Bosnia and Herzegovina are building an effective state, breaking the hold of unaccountable war-time power structures, creating conditions for economic growth, and laying a basis for closer association with European institutions, in particular with the European Union. An international focus on institution building at the commanding heights of the political economy offers an outstanding opportunity to advance each of these goals. International funding during the last years has often had the unintended effect of consolidating the ethnically divided war economies. A more sophisticated use of international influence could now ensure that the regulatory frameworks established for key industries advance the broader political and economic objectives of the peace process. Telecommunications and electricity, like coal and steel in the 1950s in Western Europe, are a natural starting point for functional integration of the Bosnian state.

TURNING POINT: The Brussels PIC Declaration and a state-building agenda for Bosnia and Herzegovina

TURNING POINT: The Brussels PIC Declaration and a state-building agenda for Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

At its meeting in Brussels on 23-4 May 2000, the Peace Implementation Council (PIC) produced a programme for the next phase of the Bosnian peace mission, which marks a dramatic shift in international priorities. The international community has now pledged to concentrate its resources on building the core structures required for Bosnia to function as an integral and independent state. The PIC Declaration contains a remarkably specific programme for building effective institutions at state level and creating a single Bosnian economic space. This Report examines the main elements of the state-building agenda set out by the PIC. It also raises some practical issues to be addressed immediately.

STABILITY, Institutions and European Integration

STABILITY, Institutions and European Integration

Author(s): Minna Järvenpää,Gerald Knaus,Marcus Cox / Language(s): English

The East-West Institute (EWI) and the European Stability Initiative (ESI) are working in partnership to prepare a study on a policy framework and strategic plan for implementing the Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe. Complementing the World Bank’s study on the economic development aspects of the Stability Pact, this study focuses on Tables I (democratisation and human rights) and III (security issues). This paper explores a number of concepts relevant to the study, in order to invite discussion and response. It was presented to a group of policy makers in Brussels on 31 October 2000 for discussion.

SOVEREIGNTY, Europe and the Future of Serbia and Montenegro. A Proposal for International Mediation

SOVEREIGNTY, Europe and the Future of Serbia and Montenegro. A Proposal for International Mediation

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Serbia and Montenegro;

Amidst the celebrations surrounding the new regime in Belgrade, the Montenegro question continues to cast a sour note, and the prospect of dissolution of the third Yugoslavia now seems more real than ever. The collapse of the second Yugoslavia (1945-1991) led to a decade of armed conflict. Fortunately, the future of the FRY (established in 1992) is no longer an issue of war and peace, with both sides committed to settling the matter at a political level. If no lasting solution is found soon, however, it has the potential to introduce yet more tensions and divisions into the region. The paper recommends that the international community, and particularly the European Union, could play a useful mediating role, helping to break through the current impasse. This would be more productive than simply applying diplomatic pressure on the Montenegrin leadership not to proceed with its independence plans.

Reshaping international priorities in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Part Three: The end of the nationalist regimes and the FUTURE OF THE BOSNIAN STATE

Reshaping international priorities in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Part Three: The end of the nationalist regimes and the FUTURE OF THE BOSNIAN STATE

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bosnia-Hercegowina transformation; peace implementation;

This report sets out to define the international role in Bosnia and the path towards completing the peace implementation mission. It suggests that, with the right focus of international efforts, the core Dayton agenda can be completed within the next 2-3 years, leaving European institutions to tackle the longer term task of transforming Bosnia as post-communist state and integrating it into the European Union.

DEMOCRACY, SECURITY AND THE FUTURE OF THE STABILITY PACT FOR SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE. A Framework for Debate

DEMOCRACY, SECURITY AND THE FUTURE OF THE STABILITY PACT FOR SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE. A Framework for Debate

Author(s): Marcus Cox,Minna Järvenpää,Gerald Knaus,Ivan Yotov Krastev / Language(s): English

Keywords: Western Balkans;

Regional co-operation will only lead to meaningful results if it is fully supported by regional governments, which means it must help them deliver concrete benefits to their citizens. With this in mind, and drawing lessons from the experience of post-war European integration, this study proposes an approach based on functional integration in politically important sectors of the economy. A concrete proposal is to commit Western donors substantially to increase support to regional governments in reforming their energy sectors in return for a commitment by these governments to create a genuine common market, integrated with that of the European Union. … The study also proposes significantly more support for institution building to strengthen the capacity of states in the region to fight trans-border crime, while holding out the concrete promise of easier access to the European Union for their citizens. The role of the Stability Pact Office would be to identify gaps and shortcomings in assistance in this field and to develop a concrete vision of increasing mobility while fighting criminal networks.

RHETORIC and REFORM. A Case Study of Institution Building in Montenegro 1998 – 2001

RHETORIC and REFORM. A Case Study of Institution Building in Montenegro 1998 – 2001

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: transformation in Montenegro;

With the demise of former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic and the change of administration in Belgrade in autumn 2000, an extraordinary period in Montenegrin history came to an end. Since then, as the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia has re-entered international institutions, the political landscape has been transformed. As political changes in Belgrade reduce Montenegro’s strategic importance to the West, donor priorities are changing and Montenegro can no longer count on external subsidies continuing at the extraordinary level of the past years. At the same time, the issue of the legacy of Yugoslavia – including servicing the US$ 12.2 billion foreign debt – is back on the table, together with negotiations with the IMF, the World Bank and other creditors .… The risk of Montenegro entering a further spiral of social decline is real. The resulting pressures on Montenegrin society will be considerable, and difficult to predict. Western donors, who have permitted Montenegro to become ever more dependent on generous external support for strategic reasons, now have an interest and a responsibility, given a commitment by the Montenegrin authorities, to assist the former ally to adjust to the new circumstances over a period of time. Grasping the seriousness of the looming crisis is a pre-condition for the Montenegrin leadership to begin to find ways forward. It is equally crucial that outsiders do not take the political and social stability of Montenegro for granted but actively engage the Montenegrin authorities to address the root causes of future instability.

IN SEARCH OF POLITICS: The Evolving International Role in Bosnia and Herzegovina

IN SEARCH OF POLITICS: The Evolving International Role in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This paper calls for a re-evaluation of the role of politics in Bosnia. In the political philosophy of ancient Greece and early modern Europe, the notion of “politics” had a very specific usage. In contrast to absolute monarchy, tyranny or oligarchy, it referred to a style of governance in which different interests are articulated and resolved within a set of rules, in order to produce orderly government. 15th century England was considered dominium politicum et regale because the king could declare law only with the consent of parliament. Without this, the kingdom would not have been politicum at all. The ultimate argument for politics in this classical sense of the word is that it produces orderly government, which is stable because it is based on a broad consensus. It is the best method of aggregating diverse opinions and producing outcomes which are acceptable to all.

POLITICS, INTERESTS AND THE FUTURE OF YUGOSLAVIA: an Agenda for Dialogue

POLITICS, INTERESTS AND THE FUTURE OF YUGOSLAVIA: an Agenda for Dialogue

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This paper examines the current constitutional debate on the future of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and finds it to be frustratingly short on content. It considers the motivations of the major political players and explores the interests of various groups of citizens. It finds that there may be a real opportunity for ambitious forwardlooking politicians in both Serbia and Montenegro who are willing to address the concrete concerns of those citizens most directly affected by the constitutional debate, even prior to a referendum in Montenegro.

Governance and development. A real life story of private sector growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina. LESSONS FROM BOSNIA FOR KOSOVO. Part I

Governance and development. A real life story of private sector growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina. LESSONS FROM BOSNIA FOR KOSOVO. Part I

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kalesija;

This report presents the results of a detailed study of the post-privatisation political economy in the municipality of Kalesija, one of Bosnia’s least developed rural areas. It is part of an extended ESI study of patterns of local development in South Eastern Europe for the Lessons Learned and Analysis Unit of the European Union Pillar of UNMIK, tracing the evolution of key actors and institutions and examining the role of local government in the emergence of the new private sector.1 By carrying out an exhaustive study of a particular locality, it is possible to assemble a picture of the economic transition process and draw lessons which may be generalisable across Bosnia and in other locations, particularly Kosovo.

The OTHER MACEDONIAN CONFLICT. ESI Discussion Paper

The OTHER MACEDONIAN CONFLICT. ESI Discussion Paper

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This discussion paper offers an exploration of certain aspects of the Macedonian conflict which have received insufficient attention from Macedonian and Western policy makers. It is concerned not with the immediate causes of last year’s violence, but with the fractures within Macedonia’s economy and society which make it prone to ethnic conflict. It argues that these underlying structural problems must be addressed if Macedonia is to have any lasting prospect of stability.

De-INDUSTRIALISATION and its CONSEQUENCES. A Kosovo Story. (Lessons Learned and Analysis Unit of the EU Pillar of UNMIK European Stability Initiative)

De-INDUSTRIALISATION and its CONSEQUENCES. A Kosovo Story. (Lessons Learned and Analysis Unit of the EU Pillar of UNMIK European Stability Initiative)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In pre-socialist times, the town of Peja (known in Serbian as Peć), was a lively regional centre of around 16,000 inhabitants, housing a community of merchants and craftsmen, several hotels and restaurants, and a few larger enterprises: a stream-driven flour mill, two timber mills and a small brick factory. Peja was first connected to the railway in July 1929 and electrification followed in the same year, with a small hydroelectric power-station on the White Drini River. Today, after five decades of socialist development and more than ten years of post-socialist decay, Peja’s economy is back where it started early last century. Amid the ruins of an industrial sector which has entirely collapsed, one can find economic structures strikingly similar to those of the pre-socialist 1930s: shops, tradesmen, hotels, and a handful of functioning industries: a saw mill, a bakery, a brewery and a brick factory. The transition from a pre-industrial agricultural economy to an urban manufacturing centre has failed.

IMPOSING CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM? The Case for Ownership. A Discussion Paper

IMPOSING CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM? The Case for Ownership. A Discussion Paper

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: transformation iin Bosnia-Herzegovina;

Now that the prospects of an immediate agreement on implementing the Constitutional Court’s decision on constituent peoples are receding, the High Representative and the PIC Steering Board need to decide whether to use the High Representative’s authority to impose a package of amendments to the Entity constitutions. … Among Bosnian politicians and the Sarajevo-based press, this issue has been presented in terms of the “legacy” of the departing High Representative – his last opportunity to bequeath a multi-ethnic system of government to the Bosnian people. They have dared him to impose far reaching changes, particularly in Republika Srpska, or else leave behind an important job unfinished. … This paper argues that the tough decision is to resist these pressures and refrain from imposition.

AHMETI’s VILLAGE. The Political Economy of Interethnic Relations in Macedonia

AHMETI’s VILLAGE. The Political Economy of Interethnic Relations in Macedonia

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: inter-ethnic relations in Macedonia;

This report explores the political economy of ethnic relations in Macedonia – the “other conflict” of diminishing resources and collapsing lifestyles which so often goes unnoticed. … It looks at a region of 52,000 people in Western Macedonia, inhabited by 50 percent ethnic Albanians and 40 percent ethnic Macedonians. Like much of Macedonia, Kicevo (Albanian: Kercova) has a deeply rooted tradition of ethnic coexistence. There has been no communal violence in this region for decades, and it remained peaceful even at the height of last year’s fighting. Yet it exhibits a diversity of economic and social patterns among its communities which seems programmed to generate inter-ethnic suspicion and fear.