Series:OSW Studies

Painful adaptation. The social consequences of the crisis in Russia

Painful adaptation. The social consequences of the crisis in Russia

Author(s): Jan Strzelecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian economy;Russian society;Russian Federation (RF);Vladimir Putin;econic crises;social costs;

The Russian economy has experienced what has proven to be the most painful crisis for society since Vladimir Putin became President of the Russian Federation for the first time. The crisis has worsened the financial situation of all classes of Russian society due to the high inflation rate and a decrease in real wages. It has severely impacted the standards of living of the most politically active segments of the middle class residing in big cities. For a large portion of society the crisis implies a permanent degradation and the need to focus on physical survival in a situation of poverty and extreme poverty. Crisis caused the decline in the social mood, what sometimes triggers isolated economically-motivated protests. Most of the time, society chooses not to manifest its discontent but to adapt to the new reality by focusing on individual survival strategies and limiting consumption. The government’s tactic aimed at minimising the likelihood of further protests mainly involves stepping up the repressive nature of the system and bolstering official propaganda. This is contributing to a progressing atomisation of society and hampering society’s self-organisation.

The language issue in Ukraine. An attempt at a new perspective

The language issue in Ukraine. An attempt at a new perspective

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine;Ukrainian language;language policy;politics of history;

Ukraine has been an independent state for only 20 years and the consequence of the long-term incorporation of Ukrainian lands into the Russian/Soviet state is an ethnically mixed society. In Ukraine, alongside Ukrainians, there are very many Russians and members of other nationalities of the former Soviet Union as well as a still large group of people who identify themselves as Soviets (in terms of their nationality). A significant part of Ukrainians use Russian in their everyday life (particularly professional) while knowing Ukrainian to only a small degree or not at all. Due to this Kyiv has to implement a language policy (which does not have to be pursued in e.g. Poland or Hungary) in search of solutions to ensure the stable functioning of a modern state for a multilingual society. The language issue is therefore an important challenge for the Ukrainian state and one of the more significant issues in Ukraine’s internal politics. In this text I eschew a detailed analysis of the question of Crimea as its social dynamics (also in the language area) is clearly distinct from the remaining part of Ukraine for four reasons: the short-term character of the region’s links with Ukraine, its relative geographic isolation (Crimea is almost an island), the formal autonomy of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, and the presence of the Crimean Tatar community which is demanding the recognition of its language rights.

A captive island: Kaliningrad between Moscow and the EU

A captive island: Kaliningrad between Moscow and the EU

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża,Agata Wierzbowska-Miazga,Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kaliningrad District;Russian political system; EU borderland;Russian Federation (RF);

The Kaliningrad region can be called a 'captive island', because of its specific geopolitical location - it is part of the Russian legal, political and economic space, yet it is geographically separated from the rest of the Russian Federation, and it is particularly open to co-operation with its neighbours in the European Union. Moscow is trying to compensate the region for its separation, offering it financial support and economic privileges.At the same time, it is sensitive to any potential challenges to Russia's territorial integrity - and the centre's desire for control over the region often limits the latter's potential for cooperation and internal development. This report presents the situation in the region, and is intended to help develop a model for its effective regional co-operation with its EU neighbours.

The oligarchic democracy. The influence of business groups on Ukrainian politics

The oligarchic democracy. The influence of business groups on Ukrainian politics

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine;Ukrainian politics;Ukrainian political system;Oligarchs; business and politics

The Ukrainian oligarchic system, which developed into its ultimate shape during Leonid Kuchma’s second presidency, turned out to be very durable. The nature of close relations between the government and the oligarchs has not undergone any major changes either as a consequence of the Orange Revolution or following Victor Yanukovych’s victory in the presidential election of 2010. Although reshuffles have taken place inside the political and business elites, nothing seems to be able to change this system, at least in the medium term.This text is aimed at presenting the network of connections existing between big business and politics in Ukraine and at pointing to the key oligarchic groups and the political forces they support. A definite majority of papers concerning contemporary Ukrainian politics as a rule disregard or deal with this subject very superficially, while it is impossible to understand modern Ukraine without understanding a number of dependencies existing between the political and business elites there.

Hostages to Moscow, clients of Beijing. Security in Central Asia as the role of the West diminishes

Zakładnicy Moskwy, klienci Pekinu. Bezpieczeństwo w Azji Centralnej w dobie malejącej roli Zachodu

Author(s): Maciej Falkowski,Józef Lang / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Russia;China;Central Asia;security;regional power;

Koniec zachodniej obecności wojskowej w Azji Centralnej oznacza marginalizację wpływu Zachodu na sferę bezpieczeństwa w regionie oraz faktyczne wycofanie się z zaangażowania w rywalizację geopolityczną. Jeśli chodzi o architekturę bezpieczeństwa, nie należy również oczekiwać większej aktywności Chin niechętnych konfrontowaniu się z Rosją, świadomych własnych ograniczeń w tej sferze oraz postrzegających USA jako głównego globalnego rywala. W perspektywie najbliższych kilku lat decydujące znaczenie, jeśli chodzi o system twardego bezpieczeństwa w Azji Centralnej, będzie miała polityka Rosji. Jednym z jej celów będzie dążenie do umocnienia obecności wojskowej i rozszerzenia współpracy w ramach Organizacji Układu o Bezpieczeństwie Zbiorowym. Prawdopodobna rosyjska dominacja w architekturze bezpieczeństwa w regionie nie będzie jednoznaczna z przejęciem przez Rosję faktycznej odpowiedzialności za bezpieczeństwo ani tym bardziej podjęciem próby rozwiązania problemów regionalnych.

In the shadow of history. Romanian-Moldovan relations

W cieniu historii. Stosunki rumuńsko-mołdawskie

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Romania;Moldova; Romanian-Moldovan relations;national identity;Romanian policy towards Moldova;Russian-speaking minority;

Rumunię i Mołdawię łączą bardzo silne więzy wynikające przede wszystkim z wielu lat wspólnej historii (w tym wspólnej państwowości), języka oraz dorobku kulturowego. Ta bliskość z jednej strony sprzyja budowaniu stosunków dwustronnych, z drugiej zaś stanowi dla nich także poważne obciążenie. Mołdawska państwowość oraz tożsamość budowana jest bowiem niejako w opozycji do państwowości i tożsamości rumuńskiej. Część społeczeństwa (szczególnie mniejszość rosyjskojęzyczna) obawia się bliższej współpracy z Bukaresztem, widząc w niej zagrożenie utratą niepodległości i zapowiedź zjednoczenia z zachodnim sąsiadem. Historyczny sentyment znajduje także odbicie w polityce Bukaresztu wobec Mołdawii. Oficjalnie stosunki z Kiszyniowem uważane są za szczególne, a przedstawiciele rumuńskiej klasy politycznej prześcigają się w deklaracjach pomocy i poparcia dla wschodniego sąsiada, odwołując się przy tym do wspólnoty narodowej, kulturowej i językowej. W praktyce jednak polityka Rumunii wobec Mołdawii (a co za tym idzie, także wzajemne stosunki) kształtowana jest najczęściej nie przez sentymenty, lecz przez polityczny pragmatyzm wynikający m.in. z chęci zdobycia poparcia rumuńskiego elektoratu.

The End Of The Myth of a brot herly Belarus? Russian soft power in Belarus after 2014: the background and its manifestations

The End Of The Myth of a brot herly Belarus? Russian soft power in Belarus after 2014: the background and its manifestations

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia;Belarus;Russian-Belarusian relations;Russian soft power;

The Russian narrative on Belarus changed in 2014, when Russian expert circles and the government elite essentially redefined their perception of their Belarusian ally in the context of the conflict in Ukraine and the escalation of tensions between Moscow and the West. Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who was distancing himself from Moscow’s aggressive policy towards Kyiv, finally ceased to be viewed as the only and sufficient guarantor of keeping Belarus within the sphere of Russian influence. This gave rise to growing conviction in Russia that Moscow controls Minsk to an insufficient degree; the instruments of control are the energy sector (oil and gas supplies), trade (preferences on Russian output) and the military sector (close co-operation between the armies of the two countries). As a result, actions to create socio-cultural soft power promoting the ‘Russian World’ values, which had previously been taken on a very limited scale, were intensified.

Crisis in Russia. The degradation of the model of economic governance

Kryzys w Rosji. Degradacja modelu zarządzania gospodarką

Author(s): Maria Domańska / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Russian economy;economic crisis;Russia;stagnation;governance;

Aktualny kryzys gospodarczy w Rosji jest warunkowany przede wszystkim politycznie. Stanowi on dowód poważnej dysfunkcjonalności modelu zarządzania sferą ekonomiczną, podporządkowanego partykularnym interesom elity władzy. Utrzymujące się do 2014 roku wysokie ceny ropy naftowej umożliwiały realizację tego modelu przy relatywnie niewielkich kosztach społecznych. Obecnie jednak, z uwagi na utrzymujące się niskie ceny ropy oraz brak wewnętrznych źródeł długofalowego wzrostu gospodarczego, Rosji grozi długotrwała stagnacja. Będzie ona prowadzić do nieuchronnej degradacji rosyjskiej gospodarki, a przede wszystkim – warunków życia społeczeństwa. Władze nie zamierzają jednak przeprowadzać reform strukturalnych, ich celem pozostaje konserwacja aktualnego systemu kontroli nad sferą polityczną i społeczną. Czy w tych warunkach możliwe jest w Rosji przesilenie polityczne? Czy władze powinny się obawiać „kolorowej rewolucji” lub buntu elit?

A quarter-century of independent Ukraine. Dimensions of transformation

A quarter-century of independent Ukraine. Dimensions of transformation

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; transformation; demoracy

On 24 August 1991, the Supreme Council of the Ukrainian SSR proclaimed independence, and on 1 December the same year, the Ukrainian people ratified that proclamation in a referendum. The new Ukrainian state had some very important assets, such as the peaceful path that led to its independence, the fact that its territory was uncontested and its civilian administration was established. They downside, which determined Ukraine’s fundamental weaknesses, was that like the other former Soviet republics, it had been part of the Soviet state and had no central state bodies of its own, such as a general staff, a bank of issue, or most of the necessary ministries. // After nearly a quarter century of peaceful development, interrupted by the outbreak of the war in 2014, Ukraine is still weak, but at the same time it has consolidated internally and internationally, demonstrated its capacity to withstand armed aggression, and is actively looking for its place in the world. The country’s greatest success has been to raise a new generation of ‘natural-born citizens’ of Ukraine, while its greatest failure has been to succumb to the dramatic population decline with irreversible consequences, and to allow the impoverishment of the lower strata of society, typical for all the post-Soviet states. // The present paper is not a history of independent Ukraine, but an attempt to present the main mechanisms by which the former Soviet republic has transformed itself into an independent state with a market economy. It is therefore mainly focused on internal developments in Ukraine.

A region with special needs. The Russian Far East in Moscow’s policy

A region with special needs. The Russian Far East in Moscow’s policy

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Far East; Moscow

Although in the 1990s the Russian Far East was not an important region in Russian central government’s internal policy, when Vladimir Putin assumed the presidency it was declared strategically significant. However, Moscow has been unable to generate a tangible stimulus to the region’s development so far. This is partly due to the systemic problems existing in Russia as a whole: the lack of a consistent concept of economic development and the ineffective governance system, and on the other hand, of purely local barriers: staffing problems, the decentralised energy system and the limited engagement of foreign investors. // At present, there is no risk of the region’s marginalisation like in the 1990s. However, it appears that political reintegration of the region with the centre of the federation (tighter institutional control from Moscow) and the status of a stable raw material base for Asian countries, currently represents the maximum development potential of the Russian Far East.

The EU Strategy for the Danube Region. The implications for Poland and the Visegrad Group

The EU Strategy for the Danube Region. The implications for Poland and the Visegrad Group

Author(s): Mateusz Gniazdowski,Tomáš Strážay / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; Danube Region; Poland; Visegrad Group

The Danube strategy is the second example, after the Baltic Sea strategy, of the growing importance of macro-regions in the EU. The regional policy is being more and more often looked at through the prism of not only ensuring internal cohesion but also promoting better connection for a country with its external – both EU and non-EU environment. Poland is a Baltic Sea strategy contributor, but has not been incorporated into the inner circle of states preparing the Danube strategy. The challenge for the Visegrad Group is to define a position on the role of macro-regional strategies in building the cohesion of Central Europe and the harmonic development of the whole EU. Demands for a better co-ordination of EU policies and funds in order to pursue macro-regional strategies should also be treated as a call for closer co-operation between Poland and its southern neighbours who are directly involved in the Danube strategy.

THE MENACE OF A 'BROWN' RUSSIA. Ethnically motivated xenophobia - symptoms, causes and prospects for the future

THE MENACE OF A 'BROWN' RUSSIA. Ethnically motivated xenophobia - symptoms, causes and prospects for the future

Author(s): Agata Dubas / Language(s): English,Polish

Keywords: Russia; xenophobia

In late August and early September 2006, Kondopoga, a town of 40,000 inhabitants in Russia's Republic of Karelia, became the scene of ethnic riots. The pretext for the outbreak was one specific incident - a fight in a café between the local Russians and a group of Chechens and Azeris, in which two Russians were killed. Several days later, members of the nationalist organisation Movement Against Illegal Immigration arrived in the town and skilfullymanipulated public sentiments by organising rallies in which the demonstrators' demands included the expulsion of all Caucasian immigrants from the region. At night-time, property belonging to members of the Caucasian community was burned or destroyed. It was only several days later that the tense situation was calmed. This event soon took on a symbolic force and received a great deal of attention throughout Russia. For some, mainly Russian nationalists, Kondopoga became a 'hero city' and a harbinger of national revival, whereas for others, in particular human rights activists, it was a model example of the outbreak of openly chauvinistic sentiments among ethnic Russians. The events in Kondopoga, together with several other widely discussed incidents in 2006 (including the attack on 21 August in Moscow's Cherkizovskiy Market where most of the merchants were immigrants from Asia, and 10 people were killed and nearly 50 injured), put the problem of rising xenophobia in Russian society at the centre of attention. This paper focuses on the ethnic dimension of xenophobia, as understood as aversion, fear or hostility vis-a-vis members of other nationalities, as well as the related radical nationalist ideas founded on the concept of the dominant (and often discriminatory) role of the Russians in the Russian Federation, with reference to racism or neo-Nazism. This text primarily presents xenophobia as an enormous social problem in today's Russia, which is not being addressed at the moment, but is instead being exploited by both the authorities and radical nationalist groups. This paper attempts to describe and understand the causes of xenophobia and the reasons for the popularity of extremely nationalist views among ethnic Russians. It also seeks to estimate the scale of the problem and the potential threat it may create in the future. The first part describes the different manifestations of xenophobia in presentday Russia. It identifies the groups most exposed to ethnically motivated violence and persecution, as well as the most xenophobic communities, and discusses the scale of the problem and its specific characteristics in the context of Russian reality. The second part looks into the underlying causes of xenophobic sentiments among Russians, while the last chapters delve into the authorities' attitude towards the problem and seek to answer the question of whether radical nationalist ideas may in future come to dominate Russia's political scene.

The failure of integration. The CIS and other international organisations in the post-Soviet area, 1991-2006

The failure of integration. The CIS and other international organisations in the post-Soviet area, 1991-2006

Author(s): Wojciech Konończuk / Language(s): English,Polish

Keywords: CIS; post-Soviet area

1. Institutional integration processes in the post-Soviet area have ended in failure. It proved impossible to transform the Commonwealth of Independent States into an instrument of real co-operation, even though Russia, which was the most interested in integrating the post-Soviet space, made repeated efforts to this end. The CIS never managed to accomplish its declared objectives and, from this point of view, it does not exist as an integration organisation and de facto never did. 2. Integration within the CIS framework was bound to fail from the start due to objective reasons, in particular the fact that Russia's political, economic, population and territorial potential greatly exceeded those of the other member states. Fifteen years on, the organisation is still nothing more than a forum for periodic top-level meetings that provide an opportunity for bilateral and multilateral consultations. The term 'CIS' has been replaced by 'the CIS area'. 3. As integration within the group of twelve states failed, Russia started to initiate the creation of smaller regional organisations of which it was also a member, such as the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC), the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and the Common Economic Space (CES). Co-operation within these structures remained largely superficial and ineffective, and their main objective was to preserve Russian political influence in the regions concerned. The practice of post-Soviet institutional co-operation proves that the former Soviet countries are still unable to establish effective integration structures, either in the 'twelve' format or in smaller groups. 4. Integration processes in the post-Soviet area failed because the foreign policy priorities of individual CIS members grew increasingly dissimilar, and because the CIS countries strove to become independent of Russia. Any international organisation established in the post-Soviet area in which Russia was a member would inevitably become dominated by Moscow. On the other hand, any organisation excluding Russia but with its centre in the CIS would be seen by Moscow as anti-Russian.

The European Union and Moldova /// Relations between Turkey and the European Union /// European Prospects of the Western Balkans

The European Union and Moldova /// Relations between Turkey and the European Union /// European Prospects of the Western Balkans

Author(s): Jacek Wróbel,Adam Balcer,Stanisław Tekieli / Language(s): English,Polish

Keywords: European Union; Moldova; Turkey; Western Balkans

After the accession of Romania, scheduled for 2007, the European Union will directly border Moldova. As a result, the EU-Moldova relations, which Brussels has rather neglected so far, will gain increased importance. The assumption behind the EU's policy is that Moldova is not going to join the Union, though theoretically, such a development is not precluded. Chisinau does indeed aspire to join the European Union. The EU is interested in Moldova chiefly because of the threat this country may pose to the security of the Union's future south-eastern outskirts. This concern about security stems from Moldova's serious instability, and especially from the existence of the separatist Transnistrian Moldovan Republic, which is involved in various illegal or semi-legal businesses and provides a stronghold to crime. This paper deals with the EU policy towards Moldova and the multiple facets of this policy, the most important of which seems to be the preclusion of Moldova's accession in the foreseeable future. It also discusses Moldova's political responses to the EU policy and the country's own initiatives. Finally, this paper also covers the legal framework of the co-operation between Brussels and Chisinau, the Community's assistance to Moldova and its implementation, the EU policy towards the conflict in Transnistria and the Union's (current and projected) role in its settlement as well as the plans for future co-operation between the two sides.

The resource wealth burden - oil and gas sectors in the former USSR

The resource wealth burden - oil and gas sectors in the former USSR

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

Keywords: USSR; Russia

The former USSR area plays a great role in the international oil and gas market. Russia is a real gas giant, with the richest deposits of this material in the world. Russia is also the main exporter of natural gas to many European countries. Keeping a strong position in this market remains a priority for the Russian Federation's economic policy. Europe is a very attractive region because its demand for gas is expected to grow steadily, while its own gas production keeps decreasing. In the long term, the Far East will be an important market for Russian exports, too. According to estimates, demand there will grow even faster than in Europe. Caspian gas producers, for the time being, can not really compete with Russia in this field, and this status quo will most probably be preserved in the nearest future. The post-Soviet countries also have substantial oil deposits. Among CIS members, Russia has the richest oilfields; Kazakhstan comes second, with large proven deposits of petroleum. In the Eurasian market, raw materials coming from the former USSR area are the major alternative to oil produced by OPEC countries. Russia does not belong to the cartel, and during the last two years, when international oil prices remained high, it continued to substantially increase both the production levels and exports. European countries are the main consumers of Russian petroleum, yet in the future, Russia may strengthen its role in such markets as the USA, Japan and other countries trying to become less dependent on OPEC oil. A boost in production and exports by Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, countries situated by the Caspian Sea, should also be expected in the next five years. The significance of this region for the international market is bound to grow when new oil transport routes, independent of Russia, are opened (see chapter Export potential of the post-Soviet region). This collection of papers attempts to give an accurate and clear description of the main characteristics and of the key problems pertaining to the oil and gas sectors in the former USSR. It is aimed at showing the wealth and production and export opportunities on the one hand and at outlining a number of problems that now limit the development of trade in energy materials in this region and might impede it in the future. These issues seem to be of particular importance in the context of the dilemmas facing the Polish and European energy security policy. This report consists of five studies, focusing on: the resources and export potential of the Commonwealth of Independent States countries, Russian policy towards the entire oil and gas sector in the former USSR area and in the countries of the former Eastern bloc, and the role the energy resources potential plays in Russian foreign policy. Also, the studies outline the situation of the so-called transit countries, i.e. the ones controlling major export pipelines for Russian oil and gas, discuss the importance of foreign direct investments for the oil and gas sectors, as well as the opportunities and dangers that natural resource wealth might pose to the development of CIS countries. In terms of geographic coverage, the studies pertain to both key oil or gas producers (Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan) and the important transit countries for energy resources from CIS area (Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia). While working on this project, we used the generally available literature, statistical yearbooks, specialist press and agency and internet news bulletins. We also want to acknowledge the valuable comments from CIS countries oil and gas experts, whom we to talked to while working on this project.

A summary of the politico-economic changes taking place during Vladimir Putin's first term of office // Chechnya and Russia: The significance of the Chechen problem for contemporary Russia

A summary of the politico-economic changes taking place during Vladimir Putin's first term of office // Chechnya and Russia: The significance of the Chechen problem for contemporary Russia

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża,Iwona Wiśniewska,Maciej Falkowski / Language(s): English,Polish

Keywords: Vladimir Putin; Chechnya; Russia

Following his rise to power in 2000, Vladimir Putin presented a comprehensive socio-economic program for the development of Russia through to 20101. This program was prepared by a team of economic experts from the Centre for Strategic Studies (CS S )2 led by St. Petersburg's German Gref. In spite of the fact that this document was never accepted in its entirety, and only its main assumptions were approved, as of 2000, short- and medium-term socio-economic government program have been based on the same principles.The medium-term goal of this development strategy through to 2010 was the reduction of the widening gap between Russia and developed nations. The long-term goal, on the other hand, was the restoration and strengthening of Russia's position as a leader on the global scale. The reforms of Russia's political system, social policy and the modernisation of the economy were intended to help achieve these goals.The aim of this study is to describe and analyse political and socio-economic reforms, as well as non-legislative changes initiated under Vladimir Putin's presidency. New reform activities will probably not be initiated over the six months remaining until the presidential elections. For this reason, it is already possible to summarise the changes achieved in the political, economic and social spheres during President Putin's first term of office.A description of the political and economic reforms and also of non-legislative changes, which took place in the Russian Federation over the past three and a half years, has been included in Part I of this study. The conclusion hereof attempts to summarise the actual achievements of President Putin's team, and to answer the question concerning perspectives of the reform process and factors determining the shape there of.

2002 Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine. Events, Results, Consequences

2002 Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine. Events, Results, Consequences

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English,Polish

Keywords: Parliamentary Elections; Ukraine

On 31 March 2002, parliamentary elections were held in Ukraine. As expected, they were a major success for the centrist-rightist coalition focused around former Prime Minister Viktor Yuschenko. The communists emerged significantly weaker from the vote, and the "party of power" achieved a poor result. Yet, due to the mixed electoral law (half of the deputies were elected in single-mandate districts), the latter block, firmly supported by President Leonid Kuchma, resulted as the main force in Parliament. The results of particular parties and blocks were as follows: Viktor Yuschenko's Block received 23.57% of votes and 112 seats, the Communist Party of Ukraine - 19.98% of votes and 66 seats, the "For One Ukraine" block - 11.77% of votes and 101 seats, Yulia Tymoshenko's Block - 7.26% of votes and 22 seats, the Socialist Party of Ukraine - 6.87% of votes and 22 seats, and the Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (united) - 6.27% of votes and 24 seats. This shows how the mixed electoral regulations favour "For One Ukraine" and act against Yuschenko's block. One should note, however, that the latter gained the support of less than one quarter of voters.

The Free State of Bavaria. The end of the CSU’s sovereign duchy?

The Free State of Bavaria. The end of the CSU’s sovereign duchy?

Author(s): Kamil Frymark / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Bavaria; Christian Social Union; German politics; Alternative für Deutschland; German government;

The Christian Social Union (CSU) has ruled Bavaria continuously for sixty years. The CSU’s domination of the state’s political scene, together with its influence on federal policies through its partnership with the CDU in the Bundestag, has made the party one of the most effective groups in Europe. This was confirmed in the election to Bavaria’s Landtag in October 2018, which the CSU has won once again. At the same time, the party is being confronted by other conservative groupings, mainly Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which has a similar profile to the CSU in several aspects. This, combined with the outflow of similarly sized groups of voters to the AfD and to the Greens, as well as to Freie Wähler, means the CSU is facing a new challenge that involves creating a comprehensive political agenda without losing the party’s conservative identity. The purpose of this report in to present the place the CSU occupies on the political map of Germany and the importance of this grouping for Bavaria. It discusses the changes happening both within the CSU and in Bavaria itself and the possible scenarios for the development of the party and of the state. To study these processes, the author has mainly used the methodology of observing political developments and analysing documents published by the German government, as well as Bavaria’s laws and documents compiled by the CSU. This has been complemented by interviews with German experts.

The Free State of Bavaria. The end of the CSU’s sovereign duchy?

Wolny Kraj Bawaria. Koniec udzielnego księstwa CSU?

Author(s): Kamil Frymark / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Germany; Bavaria; Christian Social Union; German politics; Alternative für Deutschland; German government;

W Bawarii nieprzerwanie od sześćdziesięciu lat rządzi Unia Chrześcijańsko- Społeczna (CSU). Dominacja CSU na landowej scenie politycznej oraz jej wpływ na politykę federalną poprzez wspólną frakcję z Unią Chrześcijańsko- -Demokratyczną (CDU) w Bundestagu uczyniły z tej partii jedno z najbardziej skutecznych ugrupowań w Europie. Potwierdziły to wybory do parlamentu związkowego Bawarii w październiku 2018 roku, które CSU po raz kolejny wygrała. Jednocześnie partia jest konfrontowana z innymi ugrupowaniami konserwatywnymi, przede wszystkim Alternatywą dla Niemiec (AfD), która ma w kilku aspektach zbliżony profil do CSU. Zarazem odpływ podobnie licznych grup wyborców do AfD i do partii Zielonych, a także do Wolnych Wyborców stawia CSU przed nowym dylematem stworzenia szerokiej oferty programowej bez utraty konserwatywnej tożsamości. Celem opracowania jest przedstawienie miejsca CSU na mapie politycznej RFN oraz znaczenia tego ugrupowania dla Bawarii. Zarysowano zmiany zachodzące zarówno w CSU, jak i kraju związkowym, wskazano także możliwe scenariusze rozwoju partii oraz landu. Do zbadania tych procesów wykorzystano przede wszystkim metodę obserwacji wydarzeń politycznych oraz analizę niemieckich dokumentów rządowych, aktów prawnych landu Bawarii oraz dokumentów CSU. Przeprowadzono także rozmowy z niemieckimi ekspertami.

The multi-speed Baltic States. Reinforcing the defence capabilities of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia

The multi-speed Baltic States. Reinforcing the defence capabilities of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

As regards defence policy, the Baltic states are usually treated by experts as forming a single unit. The reasons for this include a similar threat perception, similar military capabilities, and finally similar military modernisation programmes. However, the differences in their demographic and economic potentials as well as strategic cultures have resulted in them adopting different models of their armed forces.