CEEOL - Search Result

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A shift further to the right. Radical parties are gaining popularity in Romania

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): English

Keywords: Romania

Over the past year or so, Romania has seen a rapid increase in the popularity of radical and Eurosceptic right-wing parties which are unwilling to provide military or financial support to Ukraine and sometimes openly advocate for cooperation with Russia. According to polls, the political forces that represent these views could garner over 25% of the Romanian electorate’s votes in total. The largest party on this part of the political scene is the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), the fourth strongest force in the Romanian parliament. Currently, it enjoys up to 20% support and is competing for the second position (after the Social Democratic Party – PSD) with the National Liberal Party (PNL), which until recently was the main right-wing representative in Romanian politics. At the same time, the popularity of the pro-Russian S.O.S. România party has surged, as it has gained about 6% of supporters in recent months.

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China’s European bridgehead. Hungary’s dangerous relationship with Beijing

Author(s): Ilona Gizińska,Paulina Uznańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; China

As the European Union tightens its stance towards China while the latter continues its expansion in the e-mobility sector, Chinese-Hungarian relations have gained new momentum. After a decade of difficulties in implementing joint infrastructural projects, new investments by Chinese giants such as CATL and BYD are set to turn Hungary into a manufacturing hub for Chinese electric vehicles in Europe and one of the world’s leading producers of lithium-ion batteries. Hungary is also ready to deepen its economic relations with China despite the de-risking policy that the European Commission has advocated.

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A holy war. The Russian Orthodox Church blesses the war against the West

Author(s): Katarzyna Chawryło (Jarzyńska) / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian Orthodox Church; Russia

Representatives of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) have supported the war and justified Russia’s aggressive policy since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. There have been very few voices criticising the invasion among the clergy, and any such instances of criticism have been consistently suppressed due to censorship within the church and the state. Over the past few weeks, the ROC’s position has become even more unequivocal and radical. On 27 March, the World Russian People’s Council (Всемирный Русский Народный Собор), an organisation associated with the ROC and chaired by Patriarch Kirill, published a policy paper in which the war in Ukraine was called a “holy war”. The document identified the “West immersed in Satanism” as the main enemy of Russia and the Russian people and one which poses a threat not only to them but also to the entire Russian civilisation and Christian religion, from which it (the West) has turned away.

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Facing another Zeitenwende. How Germany could react to a possible victory for Trump

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: Donald Trump; Bundeswehr; Germany

The news that Donald Trump is almost certain to be the Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominee has sparked a debate in Germany about the country’s future cooperation with the US. At present, concern about sustaining American military engagement in Europe, including the continuation of aid to Ukraine, is the predominant topic in this debate. However, there are more challenges to come: Germany is also worried that the US will start criticising it again for its trade surpluses and underinvestment in the Bundeswehr.

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Unequal competition. The consequences of the liberalisation of EU–Ukraine road carriage for Central Europe

Author(s): Konrad Popławski / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Ukraine

An agreement between the EU and Ukraine on the partial liberalisation of the carriage of freight by road, which was signed in June 2022, has caused a major transformation of this market. On the one hand, it accelerated the Ukrainian economy’s shift towards the West, which resulted in an increase in Ukraine’s trade with the EU. On the other hand, it contributed to a rapid rise in the quantity of the bilateral carriage of freight by road carried out by Ukrainian freight forwarders. This, in turn, affected the segment of Central European transport companies, which concentrated on handling trade with Eastern European countries.

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Turkey and the European Union: in a maze of disputes

Author(s): Adam Michalski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; EU

Turkey has been a political challenge for the EU for more than a decade now. This stems from the widening gap between them caused by factors such as the evolution of the Turkish political model and its approach to international conflicts. As a consequence, the process of Ankara’s integration with the EU has remained frozen for years; successive reports from the European Commission evaluating its progress in the enlargement process have been strongly critical, which has only aggravated the existing disputes.

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Islamic State-Khorasan: global jihad’s new front

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English

Keywords: State-Khorasan; Krasnogorsk; post-Soviet Central Asian states

The attack on the Crocus City Hall in Krasnogorsk on 22 March which claimed the lives of 139 individuals was another spectacular terrorist attack carried out by Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIS-K) in recent months. The previous attacks happened in Iran, Turkey and other countries, while those planned in Germany, Sweden and other locations were thwarted. These developments indicate that the organisation has modified its strategy, which until recently had focused on Afghanistan. They also suggest that ISIS-K has major potential for generating threats. A unique feature of the present situation is the rapid increase in the participation of citizens of post-Soviet Central Asian states (mainly Tajikistan). However this mainly results from circumstances within Russia itself, which foster radicalisation. The risk of new attacks prepared or inspired by ISIS-K should be viewed as high.

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Carbon contracts for difference: Germany’s new instrument to decarbonise its industry

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; decarbonisation

Germany has launched the implementation of a new, innovative programme to support the decarbonisation of its energy-intensive industries. The use of the so-called carbon contracts for difference will, for the first time, make it possible to subsidise not only investments in new installations but also the current operational costs, as the state intends to cover the difference between the costs of conventional and low-carbon energy production until the latter becomes more profitable. In line with Berlin’s concept, this decision is expected to bring a breakthrough in the decarbonisation of its industry, and also to enable German companies to gain competitive advantage, collect know-how, and improve & commercialise new technologies which are viewed as future-proof.

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Putin’s spectacle: the Soviet-style presidential ‘election’

Author(s): Maria Domańska,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Vladimir Putin

The presidential pseudo-election on 15–17 March was orchestrated to be an unequivocal triumph for Vladimir Putin, and as proof of allegedly overwhelming public support for his policies, including the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. The authorities employed methods of manipulating and falsifying the results on an unprecedented scale, including compelling people to participate in completely opaque online voting. The record-high official result for Putin (87.3%) and turnout (77.4%), reportedly the highest in the Russian Federation’s history, are entirely unreliable. However, such results are expected to give the president carte blanche to continue his dictatorial rule – most likely for life.

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The EU’s ambivalent neighbours. Brussels on the South Caucasus

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Brussels; South Caucasus

During the current terms of office of the European Commission and the President of the European Council, both of which end in 2024, the EU has stepped up its activities in the South Caucasus in an unprecedented manner. It has become involved in the political infighting in Georgia and in mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and enhanced its economic relations with the latter by developing various transport projects. On the one hand, its increased activity has come as a response to the developments in and around the region. On the other, the actions it has taken are consistent with its strategic policy objective of strengthening the former Soviet states and expanding the zone of stability in its own neighbourhood. The head of the European Council Charles Michel has played a major role in animating the EU’s policy by personally participating in many of its initiatives. The granting of candidate status to Georgia marked the beginning of a qualitatively new stage in the EU’s presence in the region, even if this country is extremely unlikely to join the EU anytime soon.

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A German house. Controversy over commemoration of the Polish victims of the Second World War

Author(s): Kamil Frymark,Anna Kwiatkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: German-Polish House; Germany; Poland

Commissioned by the German state, a German-Polish House is to be built in Berlin. This concept is the result of a debate lasting several years about whether it would be legitimate for the German capital to see the creation of a monument to the victims of crimes perpetrated against the Polish nation during the Second World War. In line with the currently valid concept, the initiative will be based on three main elements: commemoration (creation of an ‘artistic element’), the construction of a museum housing a permanent exhibition and temporary displays, and educational projects. The substantive aspect will focus on the Nazi German aggression against Poland and its brutal occupation in 1939–45. The project will be carried out by two German institutions: the Foundation of the Memorial to the Murdered Jews of Europe, which prepared the House’s concept, and the German Institute of Polish Affairs, which is responsible for the initiative’s operational aspect and the preparation of educational programmes. Political supervision of the project is carried out by the Federal Chancellery represented by Secretary of State Claudia Roth (the Greens).

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Unplugged. The uncertain future of electromobility in Germany

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Keywords: German electric car market; electromobility

The German electric car market has seen a rapid growth over the past few years, with the country becoming the undisputed electromobility leader in Europe. This success has largely been possible thanks to generous subsidies for electric vehicle purchases. However, the German government’s sudden decision in December 2023 to end the subsidy programme has cast doubt on the further development of electromobility in this country. Both the industry itself and experts anticipate that this decision will have a negative impact on sales in this market sector for up to two years.

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25 years of Poland in NATO: personal reflections on the Polish path to the Alliance, including lessons for today

Author(s): Robert Pszczel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Poland; NATO

On 12 March 1999, after years of active diplomatic lobbying, Poland joined the ranks of NATO, the transatlantic club renowned for its unique collective defence guarantees. This process yielded success relatively quickly, even though the outcome was not a foregone conclusion, given the variety of internal and external challenges that Poland faced at that time.The foundation of that success was bipartisan support for membership, which was reflected in the programmes of successive governments, as well as the consistent and effective effort of diplomats, military personnel and experts. Poland undertook considerable work to align with Alliance standards, fully leveraging the opportunities presented by the new partnership frameworks. The constructive approach to regional cooperation and active participation in international forums were also of significant importance. These efforts helped Poland to provide appropriate responses to the evolving views of the allied member states, especially regarding the perception of Russia, Germany’s stance on enlargement, and the consequences of the Balkan wars.Examining how Poland joined the Alliance can offer insights into the country’s current strategy and its role within NATO. Additionally, many of Poland’s experiences from that time remain relevant, and could serve as an inspiration for other countries aspiring to join the Alliance today.

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The effect of the sanctions: the Russian LNG sector’s problems

Author(s): Filip Rudnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian LNG sector

The successive moves to tighten the Western sanctions regime targeting the Russian LNG sector have aggravated the problems affecting it as it faces major difficulties which are jeopardising its further development. The technology embargo and other restrictions have resulted in delays in the construction of new liquefaction installations and in the multiplication of challenges regarding logistics and funding. The sanctions are also generating additional costs for the state and reducing its gas revenues.

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Running on European tracks. Modernising the rail network in western Ukraine during wartime

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak,Konrad Popławski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; EU

The Ukrainian government has used the ongoing war as an opportunity to carry out a rapid transformation of the railway infrastructure in the western part of the country. This process is expected to both increase the capacity of the railway lines leading to the EU in the short term, and to result in the local logistical hubs taking over a significant share of the added value generated by rail transhipment operations. The construction of a large hub at Sknyliv near Lviv is the key element of the government’s plan. Due to the building of the standard-gauge railway to the border, plans have been made to connect the future hub to the rail networks of Poland and Romania as soon as possible, alongside the terminal at Mostyska which operates nearby.

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Year two of the war: Russia goes on the offensive, the West trapped in its strategic delusions

Author(s): Wojciech Konończuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine

The second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not brought any breakthrough, let alone a resolution to the conflict, and all indications are that none of this could have been avoided. After 24 months of facing Russia’s full-scale assault, the Ukrainian forces are still able to mount a successful defence along a frontline that stretches for some 1000 km, and they have even managed to recapture a significant part of the territories they lost in the first phase of the conflict. Prior to 24 February 2022, anyone who had thought up such a scenario would likely have been dismissed as an unrealistic fantasist.

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Chronicle of a death foretold. Putin gets rid of Navalny

Author(s): Maria Domańska,Marek Menkiszak,Katarzyna Chawryło (Jarzyńska) / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Alexei Navalny

On 16 February, the Russian Federal Penitentiary Service announced that Alexei Navalny, the leading figure of the Russian democratic opposition, had died in a penal colony. The circumstances of his death remain unclear, and the official report contains inconsistencies that suggest attempts at manipulation. Without an independent investigation (which is unlikely), it is impossible to decide whether Navalny’s death was due to ‘natural’ causes resulting from prolonged physical ill-treatment, or a premeditated murder ordered by the Kremlin.Putin’s responsibility for the demise of Alexei Navalny, who had long been a long-term political challenge for Russia's president, is beyond doubt. This death has provoked displays of grief and mourning among those Russians who are critical of the Kremlin, but it will not destabilise the domestic political situation, and will in fact weaken the Russian opposition operating in exile. Despite the outrage and condemnation expressed by Western leaders, it will not significantly affect Western policies towards Moscow.

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Fiala’s government halfway through its term: security reinforcement overshadowed by economic problems

Author(s): Krzysztof Dębiec / Language(s): English

Keywords: Petr Fiala; Czech Republic

Petr Fiala’s cabinet, which has been in power in the Czech Republic since December 2021, is facing a record decline in support at the halfway point. This is an effect of its waiting too long to address the issues caused by inflation and breaking its promise not to raise taxes. Although living standards in the country have deteriorated, the governing centre-right coalition is pushing through its unpopular budget consolidation package. The backdrop for the government’s poor ratings is the substandard economic performance – the Czech Republic is the only EU country whose GDP has still not reached pre-pandemic levels. This is also partly a result of the country’s very strong trade and investment ties with Germany, which is struggling with numerous economic problems.

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Key to the future of the Energiewende: support for building new power plants

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Keywords: SPD-Greens-FDP coalition

It took many weeks of negotiations for the leaders of the SPD-Greens-FDP coalition to reach a compromise on the strategy for building new power plants, which are intended to complement renewable energy sources (RESs) and enable the final phase-out of coal. The first step in this direction is to provide financial support for investments in gas power plants with a total capacity of 10 GW which can be transitioned to hydrogen, followed by the development of a capacity market concept, which is expected to come into effect no later than 2028. The agreement is quite general in nature, but nevertheless it marks a political breakthrough. However, many decisions on the key details will still have to be made in the future, which means that tough negotiations within the coalition must be undertaken, and the entire mechanism will still need to be approved by the European Commission (EC). The scale of support for the construction of new power plants, which is much smaller than originally envisaged, means that Germany can no longer be expected to phase out coal by 2030. Nevertheless, this is a top-priority initiative in Germany’s energy policy in this parliamentary term, and failure to implement it will prevent the process of the Energiewende from continuing.

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On the threshold of a third year of war. Ukraine’s mobilisation crisis

Author(s): Jakub Ber / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukrainian army; Russia

At the end of 2023 the Ukrainian army was facing a serious crisis involving manpower shortage, aside from the even more serious problem posed by the shortfall of weapons and ammunition. This is particularly evident as regards the infantry, which has formed the backbone of the forces fighting against Russia and has suffered the most severe losses. The majority of volunteers enlisted in the first months of the war, while opportunities to recruit thousands of new ones have now been exhausted. Although a mobilisation process has been underway since spring 2022, due to the present legal and organisational constraints it is selective in nature, and has proved unable to meet the needs of the armed forces in terms of unit replenishment and rotation. These problems are further aggravated by the soldiers’ high average age (around 40); this translates into poor physical condition & health, and they lack the stamina to withstand the hardships of gruelling trench warfare. In some aspects, the causes of the crisis involve the army itself, and result from many years of neglect and irregularities affecting the military draft centres. However, the main factor hindering the improvement of the situation has been political.

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Series:OSW Commentary

A shift further to the right. Radical parties are gaining popularity in Romania

China’s European bridgehead. Hungary’s dangerous relationship with Beijing

A holy war. The Russian Orthodox Church blesses the war against the West

Facing another Zeitenwende. How Germany could react to a possible victory for Trump

Unequal competition. The consequences of the liberalisation of EU–Ukraine road carriage for Central Europe

Turkey and the European Union: in a maze of disputes

Islamic State-Khorasan: global jihad’s new front

Carbon contracts for difference: Germany’s new instrument to decarbonise its industry

Putin’s spectacle: the Soviet-style presidential ‘election’

The EU’s ambivalent neighbours. Brussels on the South Caucasus

A German house. Controversy over commemoration of the Polish victims of the Second World War

Unplugged. The uncertain future of electromobility in Germany

25 years of Poland in NATO: personal reflections on the Polish path to the Alliance, including lessons for today

The effect of the sanctions: the Russian LNG sector’s problems

Running on European tracks. Modernising the rail network in western Ukraine during wartime

Year two of the war: Russia goes on the offensive, the West trapped in its strategic delusions

Chronicle of a death foretold. Putin gets rid of Navalny

Fiala’s government halfway through its term: security reinforcement overshadowed by economic problems

Key to the future of the Energiewende: support for building new power plants

On the threshold of a third year of war. Ukraine’s mobilisation crisis