Series:OSW Commentary

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An increasingly important partner. Poland’s exports to and investment in Ukraine

An increasingly important partner. Poland’s exports to and investment in Ukraine

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; Polish-Ukrainian trade

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a surge in Polish-Ukrainian trade, mainly due to an increase in Polish exports which grew by more than 80% between 2021 and 2023. Poland’s imports have remained at pre-war levels, with the exception of a spike recorded in 2022 due to an influx of cereals and oilseeds. In 2023, the value of Poland’s exports to Ukraine was almost triple that of its imports from that country. At present, Ukraine ranks sixth among Poland’s export partners. Although the increase in exports was mainly recorded in categories such as weapons, ammunition and fuels, more dynamic export activity also occurred in numerous other sectors, including clothing, footwear and furniture. Despite periodic border blockades, road and rail transport played a key role in trade and no noticeable disruptions in export activity to Ukraine were recorded.

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Looking for a way out: Latvia’s demographic crisis

Looking for a way out: Latvia’s demographic crisis

Author(s): Bartosz Chmielewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Latvia; demographic crisis

Due to its negative natural increase and emigration, Latvia is one of the fastest depopulating countries in the world, losing 18,000–20,000 inhabitants annually – the equivalent of a medium-sized Latvian town. Although the country’s political and intellectual elite recognised the problem following the 2007 economic crisis, Latvia has failed to implement comprehensive measures and devise a political strategy to reverse or at least slow down the negative trends. The gloomy picture of Latvian demography is further blurred by the absence of social consensus on solving these problems, including, to some degree, allowing immigration from outside the EU. Another major issue is the unprecedented magnitude of the Latvian population’s health problems compared to other EU member states.

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Washington Summit – NATO's anniversary in the shadow of the war

Washington Summit – NATO's anniversary in the shadow of the war

Author(s): Robert Pszczel,Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; Washington Summit

Three themes were dominant at the NATO Summit in Washington (9–11 July): the reinforcement of allied deterrence and defence, support for Ukraine, and cooperation with the partners in the Indo-Pacific. NATO continues to adapt its command structure and the process of force generation for new regional defence plans. The most significant decisions concerned aid for Ukraine. Although Kyiv is yet to receive an invitation to join NATO, its integration path was described as "irreversible".The decisions made at the summit regarding NATO's new role in supporting Ukraine are to serve as a "bridge" to eventual membership. These include NATO taking on tasks of coordinating military aid and the training of Ukrainian forces, along with a financial commitment of at least €40 billion annually for long-term support. Compared to previous documents, the allies have toughened their language on China in the Summit Declaration, identifying it as a decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

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Short-term stability and long-term problems. The demographic situation in Russia

Short-term stability and long-term problems. The demographic situation in Russia

Author(s): Katarzyna Chawryło (Jarzyńska) / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia

Russia has seen a negative natural population growth rate for three decades, except for a brief period between 2013 and 2015. Since 2020, the natural population decline has no longer been offset by a positive migration balance. As a result, the Russian population has been consistently decreasing, primarily due to long-term demographic problems such as a decline in the birth rate and an increase in mortality. These adverse trends have been compounded by immediate challenges: the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused a noticeable increase in the number of deaths, and the ongoing war with Ukraine, the demographic impact of which is difficult to estimate, since the number of casualties has not been disclosed by the authorities.

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How to win the war and join NATO? The key role of Ukraine’s partnership with the Alliance

How to win the war and join NATO? The key role of Ukraine’s partnership with the Alliance

Author(s): Robert Pszczel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; NATO

Ukraine’s defensive war is a struggle for high stakes: the existence of the Ukrainian state and the security of the entire Western world. The upcoming NATO summit in Washington, like the previous one in Vilnius, will not bring any breakthroughs regarding how quickly Ukraine joins the Alliance, or whether Kyiv receives a formal invitation. However, NATO is ready to increase its support for Ukraine significantly. The assistance package which has been prepared may prove to be an added value binding Ukraine more closely with the Alliance. This will create an opportunity for two goals to be achieved simultaneously: strategically strengthening Ukraine's military potential in its war against Russia, and preparing it for the requirements of future membership.

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The crisis affecting Russia’s public services: healthcare, education, and the postal service

The crisis affecting Russia’s public services: healthcare, education, and the postal service

Author(s): Miłosz Bartosiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine

Russia’s public services are facing chronic issues, stemming from insufficient funding, staff shortages and uneven socio-economic development. These challenges have been exacerbated by Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine, as the state budget has prioritised military spending. The direct and indirect consequences of the war have further strained these services. The crisis is evident in critical sectors including those of key importance to the state such as health care, education, and the postal service. Despite the prolonged and severe nature of these problems, the situation remains under control and poses no risk of a total collapse.

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NATO’s nuclear deterrence: is it time for change?

NATO’s nuclear deterrence: is it time for change?

Author(s): Jakub Graca,Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; Russia; Ukraine

NATO is in the process of adjusting its nuclear deterrence in response to the modernisation of Russia’s nuclear capabilities, the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons near NATO’s borders, and the Kremlin’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric. However, the changes to NATO’s nuclear strategy, capabilities (aside from the ongoing modernisation of the US, UK, and French strategic forces), and strategic communication have so far been limited.Currently, there is no agreement on whether to further strengthen NATO’s tactical nuclear potential in Europe by expanding the nuclear sharing programme to include additional allies or by deploying nuclear-capable land-based missile systems in Europe. Nevertheless, it will be necessary to adapt NATO’s tactical nuclear potential further in the future as the US’s nuclear capabilities will be most likely adjusted to the growing challenges posed not only by Russia but also China. This may spur a discussion on the European allies increasing their participation in nuclear sharing program and on strengthening the roles of France and the UK in nuclear deterrence in Europe.

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The capitulation of Ukraine and the Finlandisation of Europe: Russia’s threats and ‘offers’

The capitulation of Ukraine and the Finlandisation of Europe: Russia’s threats and ‘offers’

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Putin; West

Over the past few weeks, the political leadership of the Russian Federation (RF) has issued a series of statements and undertaken actions primarily aimed at Ukraine and the Western countries supporting it. These statements and actions can be divided into two main categories. The first includes threats to escalate the Russian-Ukrainian war to a nuclear conflict between Russia and the West. The second consists of ‘offers’ not only to end the war but also to begin talks on creating a new security and stability architecture in Eurasia. If these offers were accepted, they would be equivalent to the capitulation of Ukraine, a significant limitation of its sovereignty, and allowing Russia to take effective control the country. This would also lead to the destruction of the current political and security order in Europe, the disruption of transatlantic ties, and allowing the European continent to be dragged into the orbit of both China and Russia.

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China on the road to ‘green’ energy security

China on the road to ‘green’ energy security

Author(s): Maciej Kalwasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; global energy transformation

China aspires to be the leader of the global energy transformation. Unlike the European Union and others, it hasfocused on its main priorities: enhancing national security and turning its green industry into a driving force for its economy. Reducing pollutant emissions is further down the list of its objectives. For this reason, China has been the world’s biggest investor in renewable energy sources, but it has also spent heavily on coal and nuclear power. Any reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are merely a by-product of these processes; in fact, China has been party to global climate agreements mainly for reasons of prestige.

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Engaging the private sector. Germany’s plan for the reconstruction of Ukraine

Engaging the private sector. Germany’s plan for the reconstruction of Ukraine

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Ukraine; private sector

Berlin believes that the reconstruction and post-war development of Ukraine should involve not only enhancing the country’s integration with the EU market and implementing institutional reforms but also increasing engagement by the private sector. To this end, a broad range of instruments are to be provided, including investment guarantees, export insurance, advisory support, and the coordinated efforts of public agencies and business organisations. According to the German government, the reconstruction of Ukraine is envisioned as an economic undertaking, largely free of political dilemmas, including the potential confiscation of Russian assets to finance reforms in Ukraine.

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Pax Ukrainica. Ukraine’s hopes and expectations ahead of the summit in Switzerland

Pax Ukrainica. Ukraine’s hopes and expectations ahead of the summit in Switzerland

Author(s): Krzysztof Nieczypor / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; war

Much of Ukrainian diplomacy’s activity has been focused on efforts to persuade the world that it should support an end to the war with Russia on Ukraine’s terms. Since November 2022, Ukraine has primarily pursued this goal by promoting Volodymyr Zelensky’s Peace Formula, which consists of 10 points representing Ukrainian demands directly related to the ongoing conflict: the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, Russia’s recognition of the inviolability of Ukraine’s borders, punishing those guilty of war crimes, and launching international action in the face of the threats with possible global consequences that exist in Ukraine. These include ensuring the safety of nuclear energy in the light of Russia’s occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and guaranteeing Ukrainian food exports via the Black Sea.

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Azerbaijan in 2024: dizzy with success

Azerbaijan in 2024: dizzy with success

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan’s restoration of its territorial integrity in the period from 2020 to 2023 marked the culmination of a thirty-year effort. The country’s foreign and security policy was subordinated to the overarching goal of recovering Nagorno-Karabakh and other lost territories. However, this objective also determined its domestic policy: it legitimised the necessity of its authoritarian rule, and even reinforced it by allowing the government to consider any opposition activity as a priori detrimental to the country’s defence capabilities in the face of an external threat. The long-lasting conflict with Armenia also had important social (the influx of displaced persons and refugees) and cultural (nation- and state-building) dimensions. The recent military success has strengthened and legitimised President Ilham Aliyev’s position as a victorious leader.

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A country of interim governments. The political crisis in Bulgaria and the attempts to solve it

A country of interim governments. The political crisis in Bulgaria and the attempts to solve it

Author(s): Łukasz Kobeszko / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bulgaria

Bulgaria has held five parliamentary elections over the past three years. On 9 June, the citizens of this country will once again elect a new parliament in yet another snap election. A series of interim cabinets appointed by President Rumen Radev, without the parliament being involved, have governed for a significant part of this time as it has been impossible to form a working government based on a parliamentary majority. The experiment of the so-called rotating government, created after the 2023 elections by the two largest parliamentary forces, the centre-right GERB and the centrist-liberal We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB), also proved unsuccessful.

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A general rehearsal: strategies to contain the AfD

A general rehearsal: strategies to contain the AfD

Author(s): Kamil Frymark / Language(s): English

Keywords: afD; Germany

At present, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is Germany’s second most popular party. In the eastern federal states, it tops the polls with more than 30% of voters’ support, which makes it a ‘catch-all’ or mass party (Volkspartei) which targets all social, professional and age groups with its platform. Its popularity in the east has not waned despite repeated accusations of extremism being levelled at the party and the fact that its members came under counterintelligence surveillance and were accused of acting on behalf of Russia and China.

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Budanov’s sanctions. The consequences of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries

Budanov’s sanctions. The consequences of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries

Author(s): Filip Rudnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia

Ukrainian drone strikes on refinery facilities inside Russia have dealt a significant blow to the Russian fuel sector. During the first four months of 2024, the Ukrainian forces attacked more than a dozen refineries; damage of varying degrees was reported at eight of these. As a result, Russian plants temporarily shut down some of their processing capacity, which led to a drop in fuel production.

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The Israeli offensive in Rafah against the backdrop of a humanitarian disaster

The Israeli offensive in Rafah against the backdrop of a humanitarian disaster

Author(s): Marek Matusiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; Gaza Strip

In the second week of May, Israel launched an invasion of the southern part of the Gaza Strip (the Rafah region) and resumed massive ground & air attacks in the north (including on the city of Jabalia). Since then, its army (the Israeli Defence Forces, IDF) has taken control of the border crossing with Egypt (which had hitherto been used as the main point for importing humanitarian aid) and began entering the city of Rafah itself. As a result, Israel now fully controls land access to Gaza, which it has consistently blocked since the start of the offensive.[1]

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On the trail of the grey wolf: pan-Turkism in Turkey’s foreign policy

On the trail of the grey wolf: pan-Turkism in Turkey’s foreign policy

Author(s): Zuzanna Krzyżanowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; Central Asia; pan-Turkism

Ankara’s active policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia is linked among other things with pan-Turkism, an idea which advocates the integration of the Turkic nations. It is continuously present in the political culture of the Turkish state, which sees itself as the leader of the Turkic community as a whole. Establishing social contacts and building a positive image for Turkey are important elements of its approach. The power of the concept of pan-Turkism nationwide results from its links with Turkish nationalism, which has a state-building effect, and from a cross-party consensus regarding the region’s importance to Turkey’s foreign policy.

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On the warpath: the development and modernisation of the Baltic states’ armed forces

On the warpath: the development and modernisation of the Baltic states’ armed forces

Author(s): Bartosz Chmielewski,Jacek Tarociński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 reinforced the sense of threat from Russia in the Baltic states, and spurred them to speed up the implementation of their national defence policies. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia decided to boost their military spending and adapt their security objectives to the changing situation. The experience of the war in Ukraine and Russia’s crimes against the Ukrainian civilian population prompted the three countries to take steps aimed at ensuring that they could defend their entire national territories from day one of a possible attack. The new objectives of their security and defence policies are based on three pillars: achieving defence spending of at least 3% of GDP, securing the greater presence of allied forces, and fast-tracking technical modernisation combined with the development of their own armed forces and the expansion of their military infrastructure.

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Germany’s port strategy: a disappointing response to the crisis

Germany’s port strategy: a disappointing response to the crisis

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Energiewende

Germany’s seaports are facing a crisis. Their freight traffic volumes have been decreasing for years, and last year they dropped to levels not seen in two decades. Due to weakening competitiveness, structural issues, a failure to modernise and expand transport infrastructure (mainly railways), as well as insufficient digitalisation and automation, German ports are losing customers both domestic and foreign to rivals from neighbouring countries, including ports in the North Sea (Rotterdam, Antwerp-Bruges and Amsterdam), the Baltic Sea (Gdańsk, Gdynia and Klaipėda) and even the Adriatic Sea (Trieste and Koper). Furthermore, the Energiewende envisages that ports should be transformed into energy hubs, which poses additional challenges for them.

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Crisis as an opportunity. A new stage in EU-Central Asia relations

Crisis as an opportunity. A new stage in EU-Central Asia relations

Author(s): Marcin Popławski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; European Union

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed the European Union’s approach to Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan). Over the last two years, it has become more important for the EU to maintain this region’s stability and harness its potential in energy and transportation. During this period, both sides have developed a model of regular political contacts at the highest level, updated their strategy for cooperation and launched new economic projects. These moves have been reinforced by complementary steps of the EU’s individual member states, mainly Germany and France. EU-Central Asia relations have been deepening despite the EU’s consistent criticism of the authoritarian nature of Central Asian governments.

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