Series:OSW Commentary

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Türkiye and the Syrian crisis

Turcja wobec kryzysu syryjskiego

Author(s): Szymon Ananicz / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: war ins Syria; Turkey's role in Middle East;

The escalation of tensions on the Turkish-Syrian border in early October confirms that it is ongoing. For more than a year and a half, the civil war in Syria is one of the main challenges for Turkey foreign and security policy. Ambitions to play a key role in the Middle East, in particular, a number of threats to Turkey related to the escalation of the conflict prompt Ankara to actively engage in bringing the crisis to an end under secure conditions, i.e.: Turkey's security and as much influence as possible on the situation in Syria and the region. For the main purposes Ankara now has to bring about the overthrow of the regime of President Bashar Assad and peace transformation in Syria while maintaining security. For the implementation of these goals, Türkiye has taken a number of unilateral and international actions. Their results were limited so far. Maintaining Damascus' military advantage over the opposition and none strong enough pressure on the Assad regime from the international community does not offer prospects for a quick end to the conflict on terms that suit Ankara's interests. At the same time, the negative effects of the crisis on Turkey are intensifying. In this situation, of particular importance has an alliance for Turkey to increase security and achieve Syrian policy goals with the West, mainly within NATO, as well as with the United States and EU countries. Cooperation within NATO and with individual Western countries in the face of the crisis is for Ankara as a test of the usefulness of the alliance with the West. This rating will affect the influence of the West on Turkey in its Middle East policy.

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The twilight of the Russian-Indian strategic partnership

The twilight of the Russian-Indian strategic partnership

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian-Indian strategic partnership; Russian-Ukrainian war; Military-technical cooperation;

Less than a decade ago, both Russian and Indian analysts would have described the relations between Moscow and New Delhi as problem-free from a political perspective. No other power was as convenient a partner for Russia as India. The first cracks in the relationship between the two countries began to emerge in the mid-2010s as a result of China’s growing power (India is in conflict with China) and its increasingly assertive foreign policy. Other factors included the development of Russian-Chinese cooperation and the ongoing rapprochement between India and the US. At first glance, it may seem that the full-scale war launched by the Russian Federation against Ukraine has served to further strengthen the relationship between Moscow and New Delhi. However, contrary to official rhetoric, the foundations of the Russian-Indian ‘specially privileged strategic partnership’ have been eroding, due to several factors, and this erosion is likely to continue.

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How to postpone a demographic crisis. Estonia and the lifeline of immigration

How to postpone a demographic crisis. Estonia and the lifeline of immigration

Author(s): Bartosz Chmielewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Demographic crisis; Estonia; immigration; migration destinations; Estonia’s population growth;

Estonia is the only one of the three Baltic states to have recorded stable population growth in recent years. The main reason for this has been the increasingly positive rates of immigration and re-remigration, which have enabled Estonia to compensate for its negative birth rate. Despite Tallinn’s cautious migration policy, the continuation of these trends will postpone a future demographic crisis, and also enable the state and society to better prepare for population-related challenges in the future.

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Controlled chaos: Russia’s Africa policy

Controlled chaos: Russia’s Africa policy

Author(s): Miłosz Bartosiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia's impact in Africa; Russia’s economic weakness in Africa; Russia’s informal military presence;

The Russian Federation, despite its limited abilities, has significantly strengthened its influence in Africa over recent years through the skillful use of its economic tools and ‘controlled chaos’ –a set of aggressive actions designed to stoke existing conflicts with the aim of managing them later on. This policy has helped to destabilize the continent and exacerbate its tendencies towards authoritarian rule. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has further aggravated Africa’s predicament by jeopardising its food security. Africa’s disillusionment with Russia is likely to increase in the near future for this reason. Russia’s limited offer for Africa, the uneven benefits of their mutual cooperation, the Kremlin’s paternalistic attitude towards its partners and the negative consequences of its activity for regional security will all help to erode its appeal. As a result, African countries will grow more assertive towards Russia and its options will narrow, which will make it more difficult for the Kremlin to expand and maintain its influence on the continent.

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No special status, no Armenians? The prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh in a unitary Azerbaijan

No special status, no Armenians? The prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh in a unitary Azerbaijan

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nagorno-Karabakh issue; Azerbaijan; Armenia; Lachin corridor;

In recent weeks, the Azerbaijani blockade of the Lachin corridor connecting the Armenian-controlled portion of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, which has been in place since mid-December2022, has intensified, and its consequences are becoming increasingly painful: the parastate has been hit by a profound humanitarian crisis. Baku’s main goals are to dismantle the separatist Armenian structures and to fully integrate Nagorno-Karabakh into the Azerbaijani state. If this scenario came to pass, it would most likely prompt a major portion of the Karabakh Armenians to leave, which may effectively be an additional unrevealed goal for Baku. The exodus of this population could pose a serious threat to Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan’s rule. Russian peacekeeping forces, which are responsible for maintaining the corridor’s passability, do not intend to start a conflict with Baku, and have maintained a passive attitude towards the blockade. It should be assumed that they would also not object to Azerbaijan taking over Nagorno-Karabakh, although they could attempt to slow down this process. Since the Second Karabakh War in autumn 2020, the status of Nagorno-Karabakh has not been discussed in the peace talks. The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan have recognized the territorial integrity of both states within the borders of the respective former Soviet republics, which equates to them approving of Baku’s jurisdiction over Nagorno-Karabakh. However, under pressure from Armenians living in Armenia, in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian diaspora, Pashinyan has raised the issue of the Karabakh Armenians’ rights in international forums (effectively demanding that the Lachin corridor should be unblocked). Thus far, the reaction of the international community has been limited to condemning the blockade.

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China’s pressure on the Philippines: the risk of an escalating conflict

China’s pressure on the Philippines: the risk of an escalating conflict

Author(s): Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Philippines

Despite its formal defence alliance with the United States, the Philippines has been grappling with China’s increasing pressure in the South China Sea. The growing number of maritime incidents risks escalating local tensions into a full-scale confrontation between China and the US. China’s claims exceed merely establishing its own exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the disputed area; it seeks to assert a form of sovereignty akin to that of territorial waters, which are regarded as integral to a nation’s territory. Thus, the South China Sea issue extends beyond a straightforward dispute over the delimitation of the EEZ and challenges fundamental norms of international relations.

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The architects of ‘America First’ and the potential consequences of a Trump victory for European security

The architects of ‘America First’ and the potential consequences of a Trump victory for European security

Author(s): Andrzej Kohut / Language(s): English

Keywords: Trump; US presidential election

The prospect of Donald Trump’s potential victory in the US presidential election raises questions regarding the consequences of his possible presidency for European security. During the election campaign, he repeatedly announced his intention to swiftly bring an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war and questioned the extent of US involvement in NATO. In a potential second term, his foreign and security policy may be more heavily influenced by think tanks, non-profit organisations, and conservative groups that have emerged in recent years. These groups bring together former Trump administration staffers and attract significant funding from key Republican Party donors.

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A Journey into a glorious past: three terms of Georgian Dream

A Journey into a glorious past: three terms of Georgian Dream

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: Georgian Dream; Georgia

The 12 years of Georgian Dream (GD) rule have been marked by a series of successes in terms of political effectiveness and tangible achievements. The party has won parliamentary and local elections three times, and candidates backed by Georgian Dream have twice secured the presidency. Polls predict that in the forthcoming parliamentary elections on 26 October, Georgian Dream will once again secure the most votes. Under the governance of this party, Georgia signed an association agreement with the European Union, Georgian citizens were granted visa-free travel to the Schengen Area, and in December 2023, the country obtained EU candidate status.

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Universal, selective, and lottery-based: conscription in the Nordic and Baltic states

Universal, selective, and lottery-based: conscription in the Nordic and Baltic states

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nordic region; Baltic region; NATO

The Nordic and Baltic region is currently experiencing a significant expansion of conscription and reserve forces. In addition to accelerated military modernisation and the reinforcement of NATO’s north-eastern flank, enhancing mobilisation capacity has emerged as a key element in bolstering the defence capabilities of Nordic and Baltic states in response to an aggressive Russia.

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Russia’s weak spot: the financial sanctions are working

Russia’s weak spot: the financial sanctions are working

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska,Maciej Kalwasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; financial sanctions

Since December 2023, the US administration has been increasing its pressure on Russia’s financial sector and its foreign partners. This has made it progressively more difficult for the Russian Federation to pay for imported goods and services. Reports from Russian media and businesses also indicate that several Chinese banks have ceased their cooperation with Russia due to concerns over US secondary sanctions. Nonetheless, these challenges have not yet led to any significant alterations to Russia’s foreign trade. According to the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), in the first eight months of 2024, the value of imports fell by approximately 8% year-on-year, while exports declined by more than 1%. This relatively modest reduction suggests that Russian entities, in collaboration with their foreign partners, particularly those in the Global South, continue to find ways to circumvent the sanctions. However, the costs of importing goods are increasing and delivery times are lengthening. Consequently, inflation continues to rise, further exacerbating Russia’s economic woes.

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Game over? The future of Russian gas transit through Ukraine

Game over? The future of Russian gas transit through Ukraine

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota,Sławomir Matuszak,Filip Rudnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia

Ukraine’s seizure of a portion of Russian territory containing strategically important gas infrastructure assets has not resulted in a reduction of Russian gas flow to EU consumers. However, the rising security risks along this route in recent weeks have fuelled questions about the future of Russian gas transit through Ukraine after the current transit agreement expires at the end of 2024, as well as the potential impact of the forthcoming changes on the stability of supplies.

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The end of prosperity: The state of Belarusian refineries

The end of prosperity: The state of Belarusian refineries

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarusian refineries

The sanctions imposed by the West after 2020, along with the involvement of Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime in the invasion of Ukraine, have severely impacted Belarus’spetrochemical sector. The EU’s embargo on the import of petroleum products, enforced since June 2021, has effectively cut off Belarusian exporters from profitable Western markets. Furthermore, sales to Ukraine, one of the country’s key markets, have also been halted due to the ongoing war.The Belarusian oil sector, once a significant source of profit, has recently been compelled to reorganise its supply logistics and redirect its exports. Following a challenging year in 2022, Belarus’s two refineries, with support from Moscow, managed to partially recover their losses by capitalising on favourable price trends in the Russian fuel market. However, this industry, along with other sectors of the economy, has become entirely dependent on cooperation with Russia. While the refineries have adapted to the new circumstances, they were still forced to reduce oil processing by approximately one-third, which has negatively impacted their profitability and, consequently, diminished their importance within the national economy.

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The economy according to Xi Jinping: a technological ‘leap forward’

The economy according to Xi Jinping: a technological ‘leap forward’

Author(s): Maciej Kalwasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Xi Jinping; China

In the vision for the economy presented by the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee (CC), technological progress is portrayed as the solution to the major issues affecting the People’s Republic of China and the concerns of its government. The party did not seize the event as an opportunity to present concrete solutions to China’s structural problems or to improve its current economic situation. Instead, preparations for a confrontation with the US remain the party’s unwavering priority. For Beijing, the ultimate goal of modernising the Chinese economy is to enhance the state’s security and to discover new sources of productivity. Technologies developed and upgraded within China, alongside the expansion of its industrial base, are crucial in achieving this. This is expected to reduce China's reliance on foreign supplies, to make industrial development the new driving force of economic growth and to secure China’s position as the global leader in innovation. This all comes at the expense of the Chinese people’s prosperity. When faced with the choice whether to combat the fundamental problem of low consumption or strengthen the ‘fortress’ which is being besieged by the US, Beijing has opted for a technological ‘leap forward’. This strategy is likely to escalate trade disputes with other countries that are affected by Beijing’s industrial policy and fear a ‘China shock 2.0’.

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Low speed rail. Delays in the implementation of the Rail Baltica project

Low speed rail. Delays in the implementation of the Rail Baltica project

Author(s): Bartosz Chmielewski,Sandra Baniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Rail Baltica project

Alongside Via Baltica, Rail Baltica (RB), which involves the construction of a high-speed railway (HSR) connecting the Baltic state’s capitals, has been the most important infrastructural venture carried out by these states since they regained independence. Due to mounting costs, the high rate of inflation recorded in recent years, the expansion of the scope of work and bureaucratic problems, its implementation is at least five years behind schedule. An almost four-fold increase in its cost, from €5.8 bn to €23.8 bn, is the biggest challenge, as now the project’s funding is in excess of the financial capacity of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. RB has been included in the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T), as a result of which the Baltic states are obliged to complete the investment by 2030. Although Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have mainly financed its implementation from EU funds (85% of the eligible costs), these sums are highly insufficient. If the Baltic states fail to obtain further EU funds for this purpose, there is practically no chance of completing the investment, that is constructing all the planned sections and adjusting these to the required HSR parameters, in this time frame.

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Zelensky, Yermak and Ukraine’s wartime governance

Zelensky, Yermak and Ukraine’s wartime governance

Author(s): Marcin Jędrysiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Zelensky; Yermak; Ukraine

A peculiar political system has emerged during the five years of Volodymyr Zelensky’s rule in Ukraine, with virtually all power concentrated in the hands of the head of state and the Office of the President of Ukraine (OPU) which he controls. The Verkhovna Rada (the Ukrainian parliament) and the Cabinet of Ministers have been marginalised, and the most important decisions in the country are made at Bankova Street, where the president and his administration are based. This is partly a consequence of the characteristic prevalence of informal governance mechanisms over formal ones in Ukraine, which includes the role of the president being greater than laid out under the constitution.

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Turkey: a looming demographic crisis

Turkey: a looming demographic crisis

Author(s): Zuzanna Krzyżanowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; demography; Black Sea

After many years of rapid population growth, Turkey’s demographic future hangs in the balance. The record-low birth rate in 2023 and the changing age structure indicate that Turkish society is entering a stage of ageing typical for highly developed countries. Regional disparities in this respect are also deepening: the country’s poorer, south-eastern region has a much higher fertility rate and a younger population, while the northern regions along the Black Sea have a higher average age. These current trends reflect deeper transformations taking place in Turkey, driven by internal migration and modernisation processes related to factors such as urbanisation and cultural changes; they are also the product of many years of economic uncertainty. Simultaneously, growing numbers of mostly young people have been leaving the country. These developments herald an imminent demographic crisis that will negatively impact the Turkish economy and necessitate a major adjustment of social policy.

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The demise of the West and the dawn of the Asian Era: Orbán’s vision of the world

The demise of the West and the dawn of the Asian Era: Orbán’s vision of the world

Author(s): Andrzej Sadecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: Viktor Orbán; Hungary

On 27 July 2024, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán delivered his annual keynote speech in Băile Tușnad, Transylvania, Romania, which was almost entirely focussed on global issues. Orbán emphasised that Europe needs to emancipate itself from US influence, shift away from supporting Kyiv, and pursue an agreement with Moscow. He also criticised Poland’s pro-American policy aimed at weakening Russia, which he described as wrong and “doomed to fail”. Furthermore, he underscored the necessity of acknowledging the rise of Asian powers, viewing this as an opportunity, particularly with regard to cooperation with China.

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A difficult legacy. Tensions over how to interpret the shared past of Lithuanian and Belarusian peoples

A difficult legacy. Tensions over how to interpret the shared past of Lithuanian and Belarusian peoples

Author(s): Joanna Hyndle-Hussein,Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; Lithuania

Hostile attitudes towards Belarusians in Lithuania have become more widespread as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine with Belarus’s involvement. This animosity has been further exacerbated by the ongoing debate in the Lithuanian media about how to interpret the two nations’ shared, centuries-old history. The key context for these tensions is the significant growth of the Belarusian diaspora in Lithuania over the past four years (c. 63,000 people) and the influx of 86,000 Ukrainian citizens and 16,000 Russians following the outbreak of war in 2022. This situation has confronted Lithuanian politicians and special services with the challenge of identifying and preventing possible threats. They have been closely monitoring efforts to disseminate radical, nationalist, and other views inspired by Belarusian and Russian special services with the aim of dividing the two nations. Such views include the concept of the so-called ‘Litvinism’, a pseudo-scientific theory which claims that the medieval Lithuanians were in fact Belarusians and that they founded the Grand Duchy of Lithuania (GDL). If this theory were to be legitimised, Lithuania’s right to the Vilnius region could be called into question. Leaders of the Belarusian diaspora have supported Lithuania’s position that rejects Litvinism and have viewed any efforts to popularise this idea as attempts to drive a wedge between the two nations.

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A siege broken? China’s processor sector under US sanctions

A siege broken? China’s processor sector under US sanctions

Author(s): Paulina Uznańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Chinese-US rivalry

Processors are at the heart of the Chinese-US rivalry. They are among the key technologies in which the US holds such global dominance that it can slow China’s growth. The unprecedented export restrictions that the US introduced in 2022 were designed to hinder the growth of China’s semiconductor sector and prevent this country from manufacturing chips smaller than 14 nm. However, these sanctions have proved to be porous, allowing Chinese companies, which have benefited from extensive state support, to partially develop the production of relatively advanced semiconductor technologies. They have so far failed to achieve the 2–3 nm level that characterises the most advanced chips; they also remain dependent on imports of chip-making equipment. Nonetheless, the ultimate outcome of global competition in this industry will depend not only on the actions of the US and China, but also on the attitudes of other actors involved in international microprocessor supply chains, such as the Netherlands, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.

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Twilight of Jupiter: The Legacy of Macron's Foreign and Security Policy

Twilight of Jupiter: The Legacy of Macron's Foreign and Security Policy

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Emmanuel Macron; France

Over the course of his seven-year presidency, Emmanuel Macron has had complete freedom in shaping France's foreign and security policy. This autonomy is evident in France’s fluctuating stance towards Russia, from initial hopes of building a shared European security architecture to the recent reports of dispatching French military instructors to support embattled Ukraine. The pace of decision-making was undoubtedly an advantage for France compared to many allies, but it did not always enhance Paris's credibility.

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