Series:OSW Commentary

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Back to team play. German hopes for renewed co-operation with the USA

Back to team play. German hopes for renewed co-operation with the USA

Author(s): Ryszarda Formuszewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; USA; Joe Biden; US climate policy; security and defence;

Germany hopes that Joe Biden’s upcoming presidency will contribute to restoring transatlantic bonds. It is pinning its hopes on both sides sharing a similar perception of the key challenges, the appreciation of the importance of alliances, and on the US returning to the use of multilateral instruments. German-American relations will no longer be burdened by the confrontational rhetoric and strictly transactional approach which were typical of the outgoing president. However, the political change in the United States will not remove the differences of positions and interests that underlie the main disputes between Berlin and Washington. Moreover, given the fact that both Democrats and Republicans were running neck and neck during the presidential race, Germany may modify its expectations with regard to the new American administration to become more realistic. German politicians have signalled their readiness to engage more in maintaining the partnership with the US, but whether they will be able to put these declarations into practice remains an open question, considering that elections to the Bundestag are due to be held next year. The main difficulty for Germany will be making adjustments in the area of security, mainly due to the German public’s reluctance to increase spending on defence. Coordination of policy towards China will be an equally important challenge.

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More EU, less Russia. Transforming gas transmission rules in Central and South-Eastern Europe

More EU, less Russia. Transforming gas transmission rules in Central and South-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Russia; Gas transmission; Nord Stream; TurkStream; Gazprom; Ukraine; Trans-Balkan gas pipeline;

In recent months, the rules for gas transmission through the countries of Central and South-Eastern Europe have been changing at an ever faster rate. There has been much talk about opening new routes for exporting Russian gas to the European Union along routes which would bypass this region, which has led to a decline in its transit importance. The ongoing expansion of the network of interconnectors and alternative connections is changing the routes of gas transmission on the Central European market. No less important, although still somewhat less noticeable, are the changing rules for the transport of gas from Russia to the EU. With the expiration of a succession of long-term transit contracts (Ukraine’s at the end of 2019, Poland’s in May 2020, and also those of Slovakia and Bulgaria over the next few years), it will be possible for all of the region’s gas transmission to operate on the basis of EU regulations, namely the Third Energy Package, including its network codes. As a result, there is an increase in transparency and competition, and access to the infrastructure is becoming more attractive, which encourages European companies to use it. At the same time, however, gas transmission from Russia is becoming more unpredictable. This is illustrated by the changes this year in the flow of gas through the Yamal gas pipeline, Ukraine’s main lines and the Trans-Balkan route. The future of gas transmission in the region will also depend on external factors: the processes taking place in Ukraine, the actual physical levels of Russian gas transit, and the situation in the European gas market.

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Coronavirus test for military organisation in Russia

Coronavirus test for military organisation in Russia

Author(s): Jolanta Darczewska / Language(s): English

Keywords: COVID-19 test; Russia; EMERCOM; state and crisis management;

The Kremlin defines the role of the Russian Federation as a superpower in the international arena in terms of the strength it can bring to bear due to its resources, and this is the backdrop for the Kremlin’s plans to integrate the capacities of the ‘forces ministries’ into a coherent state military organisation. The system, which was created to mobilise the various resources, and develop a capacity for them to be used flexibly to further Russia’s strategic political goals, has also been put to the test in the current epidemiological crisis. One form in which this has manifested itself is marginalisation of the Ministry of Emergency Situations (EMERCOM), which officially is in charge of coordinating crisis response operations.

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Vilnius cancels Lukashenka. Lithuania’s policy on the Belarus crisis

Vilnius cancels Lukashenka. Lithuania’s policy on the Belarus crisis

Author(s): Joanna Hyndle-Hussein / Language(s): English

Keywords: Lithuania; Aleksandr Lukashenko; Belarus crisis; Dictatorship; Lithuanian parliament;

The Lithuanian government has not recognised the legality of the election of Alyaksandr Lukashenka as President of the Republic of Belarus, and it now regards the opposition as their main partner. Lithuania has taken on the role of spokesperson for the opposition’s interests, a move which has put an end to Vilnius’s cooperation with the Belarusian dictator. Lithuania attaches particular importance to maintaining ties with Belarusian citizens, on the one hand by providing support to the victims of repression, and on the other by ensuring that social and economic contacts between the two countries are maintained.

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Seeking an additional reassurance. The EU and France in Estonia’s security policy

Seeking an additional reassurance. The EU and France in Estonia’s security policy

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; France; Estonia’s security policy; CSDP; NATO’s eastern flank; military ties between France and Estonia;

Over the last few years, Tallinn has been increasingly involved in military cooperation in the EU and with France. To date, Estonia is the only country on NATO’s eastern flank to join the French-led European Intervention Initiative. The country is developing the European pillar of its security policy with a view to diversifying military cooperation, which has centred primarily around the US and UK. This is due to Estonia’s concerns about the future of their military posture in Europe. However, due to the leading role of the US and UK in NATO’s deterrence and defence on the eastern flank, working with the two countries will continue to be Estonia’s security policy priority.

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The environmental disaster in the Arctic. Moscow’s neo-colonial exploitation of Russia’s regions

The environmental disaster in the Arctic. Moscow’s neo-colonial exploitation of Russia’s regions

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska,Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

Keywords: environmental disaster; Arctic; Russia; Norilsk; environmental issues;

The end of May 2020 saw the biggest known environmental disaster in the Russian Arctic. The thermal power plant in Norilsk in Krasnoyarsk Krai, controlled by the Norilsk Nickel company, contaminated soil and water with more than 21,000 tons of diesel fuel. A month later, the company dumped another portion of toxic substances directly onto the tundra. Although the company has been polluting the region for years, it has thus far remained unpunished. This case illustrates the costs of Russia’s status as a major raw commodity exporter and of Moscow’s policy of exploitation of remote regions, which resembles colonial practices. In these regions, natural resources are being mined in a manner close to over-exploitation, without the necessary protection measures, and the health of the local population is being put at serious risk. Moscow accumulates the income earned from selling the mined raw materials and at the same time it ignores the interests of local residents – all matters concerning the regions are decided in the capital, frequently behind the scenes, and the regional governments are informed of the decisions afterwards. The Kremlin allows mining companies to operate freely in the regions (including with regards to environmental issues) in exchange for contributions to the state budget and profits for members of the elite associated with President Putin.

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The grand coalition government in Israel. New faces of the political crisis

The grand coalition government in Israel. New faces of the political crisis

Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; Benyamin Netanyahu; Israeli parliamentary democracy; COVID-19 pandemic; balance of power;

After three rounds of early parliamentary elections in Israel, in May 2020 a grand coalition government was sworn in. The parties that make it up belong to a block of conservative and religious groups centred on the Likud bloc of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, together with the centre-left bloc associated with the Blue and Whites led by Binyamin Gantz. However, the appointment of a government does not mean the end of the political crisis. Uncertainty about the intentions of the central figure on Israel’s political scene, Prime Minister Netanyahu, continues. It is not clear whether he will hand over office to Gantz in November 2021 in accordance with the coalition agreement, or how he intends to deal with the trial that has just started in which he has been charged with corruption. Moreover, the ruling coalition has already been shaken by conflicts, a situation which has been exacerbated by the presence in the Knesset of an opposition which is strong and has been gaining increasing support in the polls. Matters have also been made more difficult by the challenges connected with the second wave of theCOVID-19 pandemic, as well as the country’s economic problems and the protests they have motivated.

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USA – Germany – NATO’s eastern flank. Transformation of the US military presence in Europe

USA – Germany – NATO’s eastern flank. Transformation of the US military presence in Europe

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Germany; NATO’s eastern flank; US military presence in Germany;

At the end of July, US Defence Secretary Mark Esper announced plans to withdraw approximately 12 000 US troops from Germany. Reactions in Berlin were varied. The main narrative is that of Germany being penalised and transatlantic ties being undermined. In anticipation of the US presidential election, the federal government is being guarded in its statements. The German federal states affected by the cuts have started lobbying to stop the plans. The political parties in Germany are divided in their views on the Trump administration’s decision, which is welcomed by almost half of German society. Regardless of the motives, the Pentagon’s plans show the trend in the restructuring of the US permanent military presence in Europe. US permanent forces in Europe could in future be cut further as the US is less and less engaged in the Middle East and Africa. The units being recalled from Germany will not be moved permanently to allies east of the Oder. For NATO’s eastern flank, the Pentagon is developing the concept of a flexible, scalable presence, allowing rapid reductions, but also rapid reinforcement of US forces. The changes to the US military presence in Europe are challenging for the European allies. A departure from the standard debate on the US’ withdrawal from Europe or on the NATO-Russia Founding Act is needed. The discussion is overdue on how to adapt to the transformation of the US presence with regard to collective defence within NATO, and how Europe, and not only France, should engage in crisis management in the European neighborhood.

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A friend in need. Russia on the protests in Belarus

A friend in need. Russia on the protests in Belarus

Author(s): Katarzyna Chawryło (Jarzyńska),Jadwiga Rogoża,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: protests in Belarus; Aleksandr Lukashenko's regime; Russia;

Due to the dynamic and surprising development of events in Belarus, Russia’s previous tactic –weakening Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s position in order to force further integration with Russia – has had to change. Moscow’s restrained public reaction to the result of the Belarusian elections and Lukashenka’s appeals for help may suggest that in the face of mass protests, the wave of strikes and the initial signs that the ruling elite in Belarus is starting to break up, the Kremlin is considering the various scenarios in the neighbouring republic, including Lukashenka’s possible resignation. Moscow’s support is of key importance for the Belarusian regime, but Russia’s readiness to grant that support to Lukashenka – a difficult partner who now faces the threat of losing power – although considerable, does not seem unconditional. The scope and form of any such support will be the subject of the Kremlin’s calculations; these will be based both on how events in Belarus develop further, and on assessing the potential gains and losses for Moscow in the context of its relations with Minsk, the internal situation in Russia itself, and the attitude of the West. In the short term, Moscow is likely to try, both overtly and covertly, to prevent the uncontrolled collapse of the Belarusian regime, while sounding out possible replacements for Lukashenka and the political consequences thereof. Russia’s priority remains obtaining guarantees that the integration of both countries will be further deepened and Russia’s long-term interests respected.

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Eyes west! A shift in focus in Russia’s Southern Military District

Eyes west! A shift in focus in Russia’s Southern Military District

Author(s): Andrzej Wilk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Southern Military District; Russian army’s engagement in Ukraine;

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Southern Military District (SMD), which is the smallest of all the main administrative units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in terms of landmass, has been one of the most powerful districts and one of those playing the greatest roles in the armed conflicts in which Russia is engaged. In the two Chechen wars and the strike against Georgia in 2008, it bore the main brunt, and at present currently, along with the Black Sea Fleet (which is under its command), it bears the main responsibility for operations against Ukraine and for the military operation in Syria.

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Neither a miracle nor a disaster – President Zelensky’s first year in office

Neither a miracle nor a disaster – President Zelensky’s first year in office

Author(s): Tadeusz Iwański,Sławomir Matuszak,Krzysztof Nieczypor,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Volodymyr Zelensky; Ukraine; Government; economic issues; Donbas;

20th May marked the end of Volodymyr Zelensky first year as President of Ukraine. Thanks to the clear victory of his Servant of the People party in the snap parliamentary election held in July 2019 and the establishment of the government of Oleksiy Honcharuk the following month, Zelensky swiftly gained full power. The plan for the declared repair of the country and an end to the war in the Donbas involved the appointment of apolitical specialists for key positions in the government to immediately process legislation in the parliament and to conduct informal diplomacy. This strategy brought about certain successes. Partial organisational changes were introduced in the prosecutor’s office and courts; the constitution was amended in the area of the rights of the members of the Verkhovna Rada and the president, and a meeting – the first in three years – in the Normandy Format was held in Paris. Already before the end of 2019 a new election law was passed, a key reform in the gas sector (the unbundling of Naftogaz) was completed and in March 2019, and a breakthrough law regarding the lifting of the moratorium on the sale of agricultural land was passed.

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Ultraorthodox Jews in Israel – epidemic as a measure of challenges

Ultraorthodox Jews in Israel – epidemic as a measure of challenges

Author(s): Marek Matusiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ultraorthodox Jews; Israel; COVID-19 pandemic; Haredi; Ultraorthodox community; The state and religion in Israel;

In Israel as in other countries, when the COVID-19 epidemic surfaced it exacerbated the existing divisions and tensions in society. A group that came under severe attack from the public was the Jewish Ultraorthodox population (the Haredi). This was due to disregard on the part of certain ultra orthodoxgroups of the restrictions imposed in response to the epidemic and an exceptionally high infection rate in that community – as much as 70% of cases recorded from February until May this year affected members of that community.

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The act on the land market – a key step towards the development of Ukrainian agriculture

The act on the land market – a key step towards the development of Ukrainian agriculture

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak,Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukrainian agriculture; Volodymyr Zelensky; moratorium; Act on introducing an agricultural land market in Ukraine;

On 28 April, President Volodymyr Zelensky signed the Act on introducing an agricultural land market in Ukraine. The document envisages that the moratorium on the sale of agricultural land will be partially lifted on 1 July 2021 and entirely lifted from 2024. As a consequence, for the first time in the history of independent Ukraine, the free trade of agricultural land will be allowed. However, foreigners and even Ukrainian companies foreign shareholders will not have the right to buy land until a nation-wide referendum concerning this issue has been held. Regardless of certain reservations as to the wording of the act, the fact that it has been passed is a breakthrough moment for Ukraine. These reservations for example relate to the risk that antitrust provisions may be bypassed and also to the need to enact a number of laws and to implement acts regulating the practical operation of the land market. It should not be expected that major changes in the ownership structure of agricultural land will happen on a large scale by 2024. However, the act will have far-reaching consequences for Ukrainian agriculture in the mid- and long-term perspective. It will enable increased production and facilitate development in those sectors which are currently underinvested. It is also expected to improve the position of small and medium-sized agricultural companies at the cost of big agricultural holdings and to boost the status of Ukraine as one of global leaders in the production of foodstuffs.

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Russia’s hydrogen strategy: a work in progress

Russia’s hydrogen strategy: a work in progress

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; hydrogen energy sector; Gazprom; Rosatom;

In recent years, numerous countries have adopted their national hydrogen strategies and begun to implement them. In July 2020, the European Union also adopted its strategic document in this field. Although the actions described in the document will impact the prospects of Russia exporting its fuels, Russia has only just begun to devise its position regarding this matter. To date, the first draft of the road map for the development of hydrogen energy in 2020–2024 has been compiled. Hydrogen energy is not among the priorities of Russia’s energy policy. This is confirmed both by the content of Russian strategic documents and by the limited actions of the Russian leadership and energy companies carried out to date. These actions are currently limited to research and development initiatives and pilot projects. International cooperation in the field of hydrogen energy involving Russian companies is also rather limited. Russia has major potential for hydrogen production. The main obstacle to the development of the domestic hydrogen energy sector is posed by the absence of significant genuine interest from the central authorities in challenges related to global climate change; this translates into very limited regulatory and funding activity.

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The Autumn of the (Georgian) Patriarch. The role of the Orthodox Church in Georgia and in Georgian politics

The Autumn of the (Georgian) Patriarch. The role of the Orthodox Church in Georgia and in Georgian politics

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: Orthodox Church in Georgia; Georgian politics and religion; Patriarch; Mikheil Saakashvili;

Analyses dedicated to Georgia’s domestic situation usually omit the religious aspect and the relation between the state and the country’s predominant religious organisation, i.e. the autocephalous Georgian Orthodox Church (GOC). The relatively few papers focused on this particular issue are exceptions. Meanwhile, the fact that Georgians as a nation are very devout (religion is an element of their national identity) and that Catholicos-Patriarch Ilia II is an indisputable authority has a direct impact on the choices they make and on the policy pursued by the state. It can be said that one important reason behind the electoral success of Georgian Dream in 2012 was the support offered, albeit informally, by hierarchs of the GOC to the party’s leader Bidzina Ivanishvili. Easter celebrations attended by large numbers of believers on 19 April 2020 were an open display of the GOC’s power. The celebrations took place despite the restrictions due to a state of emergency declared nationwide in connection with the epidemic. Moreover, the GOC is on the eve of a succession – Ilia II who has been patriarch for more than 42 years, recently turned 87. This is causing internal tension in the Church which in turn acts as a catalyst for accelerating secularization.

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A pillar of the system? The political phenomenon of Arsen Avakov

A pillar of the system? The political phenomenon of Arsen Avakov

Author(s): Tadeusz Iwański,Piotr Żochowski,Sławomir Matuszak,Krzysztof Nieczypor / Language(s): English

Keywords: Arsen Avakov; member of Volodymyr Hroysman’s cabinet; Ukrainian political scene; transition from business to politics;

The change of government in Ukraine in 2019 has boosted the political position of Arsen Avakov, the longest-serving interior minister in the history of independent Ukraine (he has been in five consecutive governments since February 2014). He was the only member of Volodymyr Hroysman’s cabinet to remain in office following Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s presidential victory. Zelenskiy came to power demanding that the political class should be renewed and the ‘old politicians’ removed, among other things. According to some Ukrainian politicians and media outlets, Avakov is an essential and highly influential politician, a guarantor of internal stability and a possible candidate for prime minister. Over the last six years, the interior minister has built up a strong position for himself in the internal security sector (for example, he supervises the National Police and the National Guard) and has successfully neutralised attempts by other politicians to limit his power. Moreover, any talk of his dismissal is frequently viewed as a threat to the country’s stability. Avakov has a big media presence and positions himself as an experienced official, a statesman and a guardian of justice and order above the divisions that run along party lines. While maintaining control of the Interior Ministry agencies, he has become politically independent and has built up an exceptionally strong position for himself.

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Towards greater resilience: NATO and the EU on hybrid threats

Towards greater resilience: NATO and the EU on hybrid threats

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; EU; hybrid threats; cyber defence; cybersecurity;

In recent years, NATO and the EU have taken greater responsibility for countering hybrid threats. This group of threats covers a wide range of hostile methods used by states and non-state actors. It includes both military and non-military activities, for instance special forces operations and irregular warfare, and also disinformation and cyberattacks. NATO and the EU are involved in facilitating international cooperation on countering hybrid threats and protecting their own structures and institutions against them. In this way, both organisations reinforce the efforts at the national level, since fighting hybrid threats is primarily a task of the member states. Nevertheless, NATO’s and the EU’s actions in this respect are constrained by insufficient financing, and by the member states’ unwillingness to enhance the sharing of intelligence and sensitive information related to, for example, critical infrastructure protection or cybersecurity. The recent spike in anti-Western COVID-19 disinformation campaigns clearly shows that both NATO and the EU could do more to counter hybrid threats.

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Politics prevails – Israel’s trade relations with the European Union

Politics prevails – Israel’s trade relations with the European Union

Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; trade relations; EU; Israel and Palestine conflict; Political obstacles;

The European Union’s trade relations with Israel are asymmetrical, but the overall volume of their trade in goods and services has been growing rapidly. The EU is Israel’s top partner in this field, while Israel ranks outside the top 30 of the EU’s biggest partners; the EU has a positive trade balance with this country. This state of affairs has turned trade into a potential political instrument, but its assertive use by the EU with respect to the Palestinian issue has failed to bring about any change in Israel’s policy towards the occupied territories. Instead, Israel’s resistance to the EU’s policy on this issue has led to a freeze in the institutional development of trade relations, especially in the services and investment sectors. The EU and especially Israel could benefit from a further liberalisation in bilateral relations and its extension to their partners in the region, but political factors are hampering this process. Therefore, a breakthrough in the form of launching negotiations on an agreement to create a deep and comprehensive free trade area appears unlikely in the foreseeable future.

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Towards a dependence with no alternative: Russia’s increased role in the Belarusian economy

Towards a dependence with no alternative: Russia’s increased role in the Belarusian economy

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Belarusian economy; Belarusian foreign trade; Belarusian-Russian trade;

Macroeconomic data for the first six months of 2023 confirm Belarus’s steadily increasing dependence on Russia. In the second year of the war, Minsk is paying a high price for its complicity in Russia’s aggression, the regime’s acts of repression targeting its opponents, and its confrontational policy towards the West. This has involved Belarus losing a major portion of its markets in the EU and Ukraine. As a consequence, Belarus’s trade in commodities with the Russian Federation already accounts for around 70% of its total trade; considering that the transport of Belarusian goods (mainly fuels and potash fertilisers) is dependent on transit through Russian ports and railways, Russia’s share in Belarusian exports now exceeds 90%.

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Partial success: Russia’s oil sector adapts to sanctions

Partial success: Russia’s oil sector adapts to sanctions

Author(s): Filip Rudnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Oil sector; Western sanctions; Oil production; Russian exports of oil and petroleum;

More than six months after the European Union imposed sanctions on Russian exports of oil and petroleum products, Russia’s oil sector has adapted to the new reality. Having found new markets, the industry has managed to cut crude production by only 5% while avoiding a reduction in oil processing. Moreover, sales of oil and petroleum products have increased. However, the fact that drastic production cuts have been avoided represents only a partial success. Firstly, the current structure of Russian exports of oil and petroleum products is marked by instability and a heavy dependence on sales to two customers, India and China, which account for up to about 80% of Russia’s total sales. Secondly, following the EU and G7 countries’ introduction of a price cap on Russian oil, some exports have been discounted while the transport of crude has generated additional costs as a result of the sanctions. This allows Russia to sell more oil, but it also reduces its budget revenues. Thirdly, the Russian government has pushed through reforms to the taxation of this sector, but these have failed to increase budget revenues, and have also spurred further capital outflows from Russia and weakened incentives to investment. By choosing not to slash crude production, the government has seemingly given priority to keeping its level stable at the expense of budget revenues. Therefore, the reduction of these revenues shows that the West has achieved the objectives of its sanctions, while also avoiding disruptions to supplies on global oil markets. However this situation may change in the second half of 2023, when an anticipated global oil deficit and a subsequent increase in the price of oil are set to boost Russian revenues from sales of crude and fuels.

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