Series:PISM Bulletin

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Iceland Makes Changes to Foreign Policy after Russia's Aggression against Ukraine

Zmiany w polityce zagranicznej Islandii po agresji Rosji na Ukrainę

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; aggression; Iceland; foreign policy;

Rosyjska agresja na Ukrainę zmusiła Islandię do korekty polityki zagranicznej. Jako małe państwo nieposiadające sił zbrojnych, ale objęte gwarancjami bezpieczeństwa w ramach członkostwa w NATO, chce wzmocnić powiązania z sojusznikami, rezygnując jednocześnie z kontaktów z Rosją. W polityce zagranicznej jeszcze bardziej zyskały na znaczeniu partnerstwo z USA i państwami nordyckimi oraz aktywność w organizacjach międzynarodowych, a także stosunki z członkami Unii Europejskiej z Europy Środkowej, w tym z Polską.

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Italy Reworks Energy Policy after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Italy Reworks Energy Policy after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine, Russia; invasion; energy; policy; Italy;

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine forced the Italian authorities to quickly seek alternative gas supplies and sparked a debate about the risks of dependence on foreign commodities. Despite favourable natural conditions, both the development of renewable energy sources (RES) and domestic gas production are hampered by bureaucratic obstacles and opposition in local communities. Continued dependence on energy imports will eventually push Italy to normalise relations with Russia.

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Climate Protection Litigation on the Rise

Climate Protection Litigation on the Rise

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: climate; protection litigation; international law; courts;

In the last several years, national courts and international institutions have increasingly begun to treat conservative or climate-adverse actions by states as violations of their obligations under international law and human rights. This has been followed by some countries more affected by climate change and engaged in international bodies to put more pressure on Global North states to protect the climate. The sympathetic attitude of international courts towards such complaints may, in the long term, force the need for increased climate ambition or even compensation payments by, among others, Poland.

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Congress Key to U.S. Support for Ukraine One Year After the Russian Invasion

Congress Key to U.S. Support for Ukraine One Year After the Russian Invasion

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Congress; Republicans; House of Representatives; Russia; Ukraine; invasion;

The Republicans’ majority in the House of Representatives may slow down or reduce American support for Ukraine. The problem is not only the opposition of some Republicans to the assistance itself but above all, the attempts to reduce budget expenditures and reduce the deficit. This may prompt the Biden administration to use the approved funds sparingly and provide only the most necessary elements of support for fear that Congress will not allocate additional funds before the next fiscal year.

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EU Still Receiving Russian LNG

EU Still Receiving Russian LNG

Author(s): Marianna Skoczek-Wojciechowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Russia; energy policy; economic situation; foreign policy; gas; LNG;

Even without an EU ban on the imports of Russian gas in 2022, pipeline deliveries fell by over 80%. However, this did not eliminate the EU’s dependence on gas from Russia because at the same time, the Union recorded a record increase in LNG imports from this country. This trend goes against the EU’s efforts to diversify supply directions. It is important for the European Commission (EC) to encourage the Member States more strongly to abandon Russian LNG and strengthen European solidarity through joint gas purchases using the EU Energy Platform, as well as through the development of an LNG benchmark.

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A Crash Test: EU Strategic Autonomy in the Foreign Policy of France

A Crash Test: EU Strategic Autonomy in the Foreign Policy of France

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; France; foreign policy; crash test; strategic autonomy;

France uses the idea of EU strategic autonomy as a tool in its own foreign policy. France’s aim is to redefine the Union’s partnership with the U.S. and NATO. Hence, the activity of President Emmanuel Macron in emphasising the differences between the positions of the U.S. and the EU, especially in relations with China and Russia. Macron’s rhetoric worries other European countries and hides the real problems in EU security policy, such as insufficient financing of the Common Security and Defence Policy as well as the lack of a clear definition of strategic autonomy.

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China's Economic Problems Worsen: the Domestic and International Aspects

China's Economic Problems Worsen: the Domestic and International Aspects

Author(s): Piotr Dzierżanowski,Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; economic problems; policy; domestic aspect; international aspect; foreign policy;

The economic rebound in China after the lifting of the pandemic restrictions at the end of 2022 was short-lived and the situation has now been deteriorating for several months, including because of a decline in consumption and exports. The current economic woes are rooted in an intensification of existing problems, including excessive debt, particularly in the real estate sector. The deflation recorded in July this year is indicative of deepening structural problems, including the current, ineffective growth model based on investment and exports. While a deep crisis in China’s economy is unlikely, the accumulation of the challenges will translate into lower growth rates in the coming years.

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Slovaks' Perception of the War in Ukraine is Changing - a Socio-Political Perspective

Slovaks' Perception of the War in Ukraine is Changing - a Socio-Political Perspective

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik,Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; war; Russia; Slovakia; perspective; policy;

Slovak support for Ukraine in the war with Russia results from the attitude of the authorities, and not from cross-party or social consensus. The continuation of this policy after the parliamentary elections scheduled for 30 September is uncertain, given the position of the opposition party, Direction–Slovak Social Democracy (Smer-SSD), which is leading in almost all this year’s polls. Specifically, the party announced the suspension of military and political support for Ukraine. This is in line with the pro-Russian sympathies of a large part of society. The possible co-creation of a government by this party would be a challenge for Poland and would further weaken the Central European voice on security and eastern issues.

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Russia Turns to "Crypto-mobilisation" to Bolster Forces

Russia Turns to "Crypto-mobilisation" to Bolster Forces

Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; finances; crypto;

The hostilities in Ukraine are leading to such high losses among Russian troops that replenishing and rotating them is becoming a problem. In order to maintain the occupied territories, Russia is supplementing its combat potential by increasing the number of conscripts and contract soldiers, recruiting volunteers and prisoners, and forcibly mobilising the population in the occupied territories. The ongoing war makes Russia’s existing methods insufficient and the authorities may resume partial mobilisation.

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Latin American Lithium Sector is Booming and Attracting the EU

Latin American Lithium Sector is Booming and Attracting the EU

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Latin America; Lithium; Economy; EU; Policy;

The advancement of the global energy transition is intensifying the competition for access to lithium. Consequently, the significance of Latin American producers of this raw material - especially Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, which have more than half of the world’s proven reserves - is rising, but they differ in their concepts and the pace of exploiting this potential. The EU considers lithium a strategic raw material and seeks stable supply chains for it. To this end, it is strengthening cooperation with Latin American countries, led by Chile, the largest exporter of lithium to the EU, and through other means.

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Closer Franco-Spanish Cooperation Remains a Challenge

Closer Franco-Spanish Cooperation Remains a Challenge

Author(s): Amanda Dziubińska / Language(s): English

Keywords: France; Spain; cooperation; foreign policy;

The tightening of Franco-Spanish cooperation reflects France’s search for a permanent ally with similar interests in European politics and the need to ease tensions between the two countries that have arisen in recent years. Signed at the Barcelona Summit on 19 January, the bilateral treaty provides, among others, for closer coordination of the two countries’ energy, industrial and trade policies. Although the treaty was concluded at a time of marked weakening of the Franco-German tandem, strengthening cooperation with Spain will not replace the partnership with Germany, which is a critical factor for France’s European policy.

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Identifying the Missing Links in the Energy Transition

Identifying the Missing Links in the Energy Transition

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak,Marianna Skoczek-Wojciechowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Europe; Green; Energy; EGD; Policy;

Achieving the goals of the European Green Deal (EGD) requires increasing renewables deployment. Meanwhile, as the share of unstable renewable energy sources increases, so does the problem of ensuring the flexibility of power grids. The key challenge for the European energy system is therefore to expand electricity grids, both national and interstate, and invest in the development of energy storage to ensure a balance of demand and supply.

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Baltic States and Germany Tighten Relations in the Context of Zeitenwende

Baltic States and Germany Tighten Relations in the Context of Zeitenwende

Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Baltic States; Zeitenwende; relations; foreign policy; security;

The Baltic States are intensifying relations with Germany, including in the security dimension, despite previous differences regarding, for example, the perception of threats from Russia. The need to deepen cooperation was clearly demonstrated by the Russian aggression against Ukraine and the unstable situation on NATO’s eastern border. Closer cooperation is fostered by a similar perception of EU matters in which the German, rather than the French model of European integration is closer to the Baltic States’. This Baltic-German cooperation will not weaken the current intensity of their ties with Poland.

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Canada Increases Indo-Pacific Activity - Consequences for NATO

Canada Increases Indo-Pacific Activity - Consequences for NATO

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Canada; foreign policy; Indo-Pacific Activity; NATO; security;

Justin Trudeau’s government seeks to increase Canada’s influence on security in the Indo-Pacific with the goal of decreasing any possible risks of a crisis erupting and threatening Canada’s economic interests. The country’s engagement in the region will strengthen its position as a key ally of the U.S. However, this will occur at the cost of attention and activity in Europe, which stands in contradiction to its NATO declarations.

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Hungary's Education System Crisis Risks a Decline in Competitiveness

Hungary's Education System Crisis Risks a Decline in Competitiveness

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Hungary; school; education; system; policy; competitiveness decline;

July was the authorities’ response to protests against low salaries and other systemic problems in education that have been ongoing for over a year and a half. The failure to resolve them will lead to further tensions, reducing the quality of Hungarian education, increasing social inequalities, causing shortages of skilled labour, and hindering improvements in the economy’s competitiveness. The education system’s problems also open up further disputes with the EU institutions and push back the prospect of Hungary’s access to the reconstruction fund.

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NATO Intensifies Cooperation with Indo-Pacific Partners

NATO Intensifies Cooperation with Indo-Pacific Partners

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; Indo-Pacific; partners; cooperation; security;

The participation of the leaders of Australia, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand (AP4) at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July this year confirmed that the Alliance recognises the interdependence of the security of the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific areas. The organisation intends to develop cooperation with the AP4 in cyber-security, new technologies, and combating hybrid threats, among others. Challenges to collaboration include the divergent positions among NATO countries and its Indo-Pacific partners in their approach to China. It is in Poland’s interest to support the Alliance’s cooperation with the AP4 without weakening NATO’s commitments in Europe.

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United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus in Exile Active in Its First Year

United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus in Exile Active in Its First Year

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; United Transitional Cabinet; Exile;

During its first year of activity, the Belarusian transitional cabinet formed in exile by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya consolidated its political position, worked on reform projects and sought support from other countries for Belarusian independence. The Belarusian authorities see this as a threat and have taken a number of steps to obstruct the actions of the interim government in the international arena. It is therefore necessary for Western countries to provide systemic support to the Tsikhanouskaya cabinet so that it can continue to function and prepare a comprehensive reform plan.

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Niger Was One Coup Too Many in the Sahel

Niger Was One Coup Too Many in the Sahel

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: Niger; Sahel; Coup;

On 26 July, the military overthrew the democratically elected, pro-Western president of Niger, Mohamed Bazoum. The regional ECOWAS bloc, followed by France, threatened military intervention. However, it turned out to be politically impossible due to the support that the junta had gained with anti-French slogans and widespread opposition in the countries that were to carry it out, especially Nigeria. Russia and jihadist groups active in the region have gained politically from the coup.

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Saudi Arabia’s Sports Investments Linked to Political Goals

Saudi Arabia’s Sports Investments Linked to Political Goals

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Saudi Arabia; political goals; sports; investments;

Football has joined the list of instruments used by Saudi Arabia to cover up the brutality of the ruling monarchy’s domestic politics and its controversial foreign interventions. This season, Saudi clubs have spent close to $490 million on player transfers to raise the prestige of the domestic league to promote an economic development strategy and build a positive image of the state. The sporting investments are part of the authorities’ increasingly assertive policy towards Western partners.

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Draft Nature Restoration Law Raises Controversy within the EU

Draft Nature Restoration Law Raises Controversy within the EU

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Nature Restoration Law; Draft; Controversy;

The draft regulation on nature restoration (NRL) proposed by the European Commission (EC) is controversial among the EU Member States, MEPs, food producers, and others. If adopted, it would, in the long term, contribute to the effective implementation of the European Green Deal (EGD), the EU’s plan to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. The challenge, however, will be to mitigate the negative impacts of the NRL, including on food security, which may become apparent much faster than the benefits of the act.

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