Series:PISM Bulletin

Russian Hybrid Threats to the Baltic States

Russian Hybrid Threats to the Baltic States

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Keywords: Baltic states; Russia

How Russia has defined its strategic interests threatens Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. It excels in the use of a range of instruments to put pressure on the Baltic States and interfere in their internal affairs. Russia is also ready to take risky action, thus complicating NATO defence planning, which must be based on a wide spectrum of threats on the Eastern Flank. However, three general scenarios can be distinguished that should point the way for the Allies, especially in strengthening the non-military elements of their security system.

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Russia-Saudi Arabia Cooperation: Potential and Limitations

Russia-Saudi Arabia Cooperation: Potential and Limitations

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Saudi Arabia

Arabia and Russia promote contrary approaches to resolving the conflict in Syria as well as differ in their perceptions of Iran’s role in the Middle East. This splits in interest limit cooperation in the armaments sector. The new sphere of Russian-Saudi cooperation is energy, especially in the oil market. Russia seeks to use Saudi Arabia as an instrument to undermine U.S. influence in the Middle East.

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China’s Plans to Strengthen Relations with Germany

China’s Plans to Strengthen Relations with Germany

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP); Germany

China endeavours to strengthen its relations with Germany by taking advantage of the strain in transatlantic relations. In China’s view, Germany would be the PRC’s main partner in the promotion of free trade, climate protection, and a multipolar world order. To foster the relationship, China is willing to minimize disputes with Germany and improve ties, such as by speeding up certification of German political foundations. Strengthening of China–Germany relations requires increased access to the Chinese market for German companies, which is only possible in a longer perspective. Poland may see some benefit from increased exports to Germany and indirectly to China.

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U.S. Foreign Policy a Year after the Election of Donald Trump

U.S. Foreign Policy a Year after the Election of Donald Trump

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: U.S. Foreign Policy; Donald Trump

Donald Trump announced he would profoundly change U.S. foreign policy, but as president, he has so far continued the policies under Barack Obama. This state has been determined by internal conflicts in the Trump administration, the growing dispute between the president and Congress, and the lack of a detailed foreign policy strategy.

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Australia and the Global LNG Market

Australia and the Global LNG Market

Author(s): Bartosz Wiśniewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Australia; Global LNG Market

An advantageous geographical location and liberalised trade in energy resources allow Australia to successfully compete for the most lucrative and promising liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets. Come 2020, Australia likely will be the world’s largest LNG supplier. However, its domestic LNG industry will have to face the challenge of securing enough natural gas for export. For LNG importers like Poland, the success of those efforts would ensure favourable market conditions.

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Changes to the NATO Command Structure

Changes to the NATO Command Structure

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; security

NATO defence ministers approved changes to the Alliance’s command structure to increase its ability to conduct collective-defence missions. However, the decision about the location of new commands is still pending. While working out a compromise, the Allies should not undermine the political coherence of NATO, the backbone of its credibility.

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Trump’s Asia-Pacific Visit: An Ineffective Attempt to Regain U.S. Initiative in the Region

Trump’s Asia-Pacific Visit: An Ineffective Attempt to Regain U.S. Initiative in the Region

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Donald Trump; US foreign policy

U.S. policy towards the Asia-Pacific region can be characterised by its many, sometimes contradictory, actions. The U.S. pulled out of the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), signalling decreasing economic engagement in Asia, and presents a variable stance on China. However, the increased U.S. military presence in the region suggests a possible attack on North Korea. The unpredictability of current U.S. policy worries its Asian partners. During President Donald Trump’s visit to Asia-Pacific countries, he failed to convince them that the U.S. is ready for greater engagement in the region and as a counterbalance to China. For the American president, the key point of his trip was talks with China, which appears not to have compromised on trade issues or North Korea.

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14th EU-India Summit in New Delhi Strengthens Partnership

14th EU-India Summit in New Delhi Strengthens Partnership

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU-India Summit; New Delhi

The EU-India Summit in New Delhi on 6 October showed an increasing convergence of views on major regional and global issues and boosted the strategic partnership established in 2004. Yet, the lack of a breakthrough in negotiations of the Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) proves it remains a major challenge, along with the negative effects of Brexit, on EU-India relations. If the negotiations are protracted, the EU may consider a separate deal on investments alone. Poland should consider more actively participating in shaping EU policy on India and using existing mechanisms of dialogue to strengthen its bilateral cooperation.

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PESCO and Cohesion of European Defence Policy

PESCO and Cohesion of European Defence Policy

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: PESCO; Cohesion of European Defence Policy

Notification on Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), signed by 23 EU Member States, solidifies the renewal process of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). Broad participation in PESCO means that there will be no differential integration in defence. However, the link between this mechanism and NATO remains an issue to be resolved and threatens effectiveness of PESCO.

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Sub-Saharan Africa in Israel’s Foreign Policy

Sub-Saharan Africa in Israel’s Foreign Policy

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa; Israel’s Foreign Policy

Renewing historically close relations with Sub-Saharan Africa is one of Israel’s most important foreign policy aims. Benjamin Netanyahu’s government aspires for lasting change in these countries’ stance on Israel on the international stage. This aim is supported by Israel’s offer of innovation, security, and development aid. However, the intensification of sectoral cooperation has not automatically translated into policy changes among the Sub-Saharan countries.

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British Party System and the Brexit Negotiations

British Party System and the Brexit Negotiations

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Keywords: British Party System; Brexit

During their annual conventions in September and October, British parties presented updated visions of the country’s EU exit. The Conservatives and Labour eventually took clear “hard” and “soft” Brexit positions, respectively. These decisions result from the division in British society and are intended to reinforce the dominance of both parties against the others. This party competition, however, hardens the position of the British government in negotiations with the EU. It also increases the likelihood of Prime Minister Theresa May being replaced by a Conservative Eurosceptic in case of a crisis in the UK-EU talks.

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The Schengen Area and the Eurozone in Bulgaria’s European Policy

The Schengen Area and the Eurozone in Bulgaria’s European Policy

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bulgaria; eurozone; Schengen Area

The European Commission on 15 November presented a report on the progress made by Bulgaria under the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism (CVM). If successfully concluded, the instrument is perceived in the EU as an unofficial condition for a country to join the Schengen Area. The risk of advanced institutionalisation in a multi-speed EU has prompted Bulgaria to intensify its efforts to join the eurozone’s exchange rate mechanism (ERM II), a phase preceding full euro membership. Although Bulgarian authorities put priority on both goals, the perspective of achieving them is uncertain.

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Improvement in Israeli-Egyptian Relations

Improvement in Israeli-Egyptian Relations

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal,Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israeli-Egyptian Relations

Since 2014, Egyptian-Israeli relations have improved significantly. The regional interests of both governments are compatible in fighting terrorism, the Muslim Brotherhood and its associates, and Iranian influence. The cooperation is mutually beneficial: Egypt raises its position in relations with the U.S. and the EU, while Israel ensures the continuation of Egypt’s favourable foreign policy. The Israeli-Egyptian rapprochement is also part of a consolidation of the anti-Iran bloc that includes Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Further improvement in bilateral relations is inhibited by the negative attitude of Egyptian society towards Israel.

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The International Aspects of Vladimir Putin’s Re-election Campaign

The International Aspects of Vladimir Putin’s Re-election Campaign

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; elections; mass media; Vladimir Putin

In December, the campaign for president of Russia will officially begin in anticipation of the vote in March 2018. Vladimir Putin and his allies will use the tensions in Russia’s relations with the U.S. and the EU to build a climate of danger and to convince voters about the potential of interference in Russia’s electoral process. This will be Putin’s response to the concerns of Russians who see him as the guarantor of the security and international standing of the state.

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China’s Position on the North Korea Crisis

China’s Position on the North Korea Crisis

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; North Korea Crisis

The deepening crisis on the Korean Peninsula raises concerns in China. The PRC does not want the North Korean regime to collapse or the Korean states to re-unify, but fears an escalation or outbreak of a heated conflict. However, China’s authorities have not changed policy towards North Korea, but have sharpened their rhetoric. Only when the North’s actions really threaten Chinese provinces or seriously undermine Xi Jinping’s position as leader will more decisive steps be probable.

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U.S. Strategy on Afghanistan and South Asia: Pakistan’s Key Role

U.S. Strategy on Afghanistan and South Asia: Pakistan’s Key Role

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: U.S. Strategy; Afghanistan; South Asia

The new U.S. strategy for Afghanistan and South Asia is based in large part on the continuation of policy towards the region. The most important differences under President Donald Trump are the lack of a military operation end date and criticism of cooperation with Pakistan. The key to success of the strategy is to cut off the Taliban from support on the Pakistan side of the border. Therefore, in addition to stronger international pressure on Pakistan, it is necessary to cooperate on some of that country’s strategic interests, including regulation of the border with Afghanistan.

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Prospects of North Korean Naval Nuclear Deterrent Forces

Prospects of North Korean Naval Nuclear Deterrent Forces

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: North Korea; armament; nuclear weapons; Security

North Korea’s ballistic missile and thermonuclear tests of 2017 are not the only ones on a list of potential threats. It is also mastering technologies necessary for nuclear deterrent forces based in part on submarines. This new qualitative threat requires closer cooperation between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan in missile defence and anti-submarine warfare.

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The 16+1 Initiative and Challenges for Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries

The 16+1 Initiative and Challenges for Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Central Europe;Eastern Europe;

It has been five years since the establishment of cooperation in the 16+1 format between China and Central and Eastern European countries. The initiative still serves as a tool to support Chinese interests in bilateral relations with separate CEE countries, rather than as a forum to accomplish common goals and projects. This was confirmed by the sixth 16+1 summit, held in Budapest on 27 November, which was dominated (like previous meetings) by competition between the “16” for Chinese investments and funds. There is little to suggest that this situation will change before the next summit, to be held in Bulgaria in 2018. For Poland, the 16+1 initiative could become a useful instrument for cooperation. However, this will only happen if China offers real reciprocity in terms of economic relations.

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EGTCs: Assessment and Prospects

EGTCs: Assessment and Prospects

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Europe; local government

Established in 2006, a legal instrument called European Groupings of Territorial Cooperation (EGTC) was intended to serve the objectives of EU cohesion policy and the Europe 2020 strategy. However, in Poland this instrument has been used at a small scale. The four EGTCs established on the Polish borders focus on projects that can be carried out through other forms of cooperation. Among the challenges that EGTCs should encompass are management of the environment or transport projects.

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Israel’s Pivot to Asia

Israel’s Pivot to Asia

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; Asia

The importance of Israel’s cooperation with Asian states has increased systematically. The pivot from the West to Asia is focused on growing the economy but in the longer term might also bring political benefits to Israel. It attributes great importance to its relations with China, which could lead to disputes with the U.S., especially in the sensitive sphere of technological cooperation. The changes in Israel’s policy in this area may prove beneficial to the European Union.

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