ELECTIONS IN KOSOVO: Moving toward Democracy? (ICG Balkans Report N0 97)

ELECTIONS IN KOSOVO: Moving toward Democracy? (ICG Balkans Report N0 97)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kosovo 2000 elections;

In the fall of 2000, for the first time in their history, the people of Kosovo are being promised the opportunity to participate in democratic, internationally supervised local elections. The elections offer the people of Kosovo the opportunity to demonstrate their commitment to democracy. They also present the international mission1 in Kosovo with a test of its resolve to overcome the political and practical problems associated with holding elections in a territory still suffering from the physical and the political scars of war.

Macedonia's Ethnic Albanians: Bridging the Gulf (ICG Balkans Report No 98)

Macedonia's Ethnic Albanians: Bridging the Gulf (ICG Balkans Report No 98)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Compared with the rest of the region (Montenegro apart) Macedonia1 has been something of a multi-ethnic success story. The country has thus far managed to maintain a relatively high degree of stability. Gloomy scenarios about the country’s disintegration and a possible division amongst its neighbours have not materialised. But its citizens' increasingly contradictory views of inter-ethnic relations are worrying. Ask ethnic Albanians about the state of current relations and they are likely to reply that relations have never been better. Ask ethnic Macedonians and they are likely to respond that relations have never been worse. This gulf between these two peoples is what shapes the country's uneasy coexistence. Albanians are by far the largest national minority in Macedonia, and their status within the state and their attitude towards it have a direct bearing upon Macedonia’s long-term stability and viability.

SERBIA: The Milosevic Regime on the Eve of the September Elections (ICG Balkans Report N° 99)

SERBIA: The Milosevic Regime on the Eve of the September Elections (ICG Balkans Report N° 99)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The regime in Serbia has recovered its footing after the 1999 war with NATO and remains as hard-line as ever. Learning and gaining experience over the years has enabled the regime to “improve” its performance and become more efficient. Most analysts in Serbia agree that Milosevic will be able to stay in power indefinitely. The process of internal consolidation after a lost war and loss of Kosovo has been mostly successful. The Serbian state security apparatus is pervasive. Its only task remains to secure the rule of federal President Slobodan Milosevic; the enemy is whatever threatens that rule. Information collected is used selectively to intimidate, blackmail or inflict political damage on opponents. The police are estimated now to be 80-100,000 strong; their consolidation was completed in June. New laws have given the police new power and the Law on Terrorism is expected to further enhance their authority and legal power.

KOSOVO REPORT CARD (ICG Balkans Report N° 100)

KOSOVO REPORT CARD (ICG Balkans Report N° 100)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Impatience among Kosovo's majority Albanian population is growing with the international mission's slowness in putting in place some of the basic structures of normal life - 15 months after the end of the war the judicial system is still getting started and Pristina suffers prolonged daily power outages. The UN police, although nearing its level of authorised deployments, has yet to deal effectively with the climate of lawlessness and disrespect for public authority. Albanians have seized with both hands the opportunities for creating a flourishing small business economy - thanks in part to the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) chief Bernard Kouchner's decision to introduce the DM as the Kosovo's currency - but the international community has yet to begin the process of privatisation and market reform that is critically necessary to restart the Kosovo economy and to channel investment into legitimate economic activity and away from the quasi-legal grey economy.

YUGOSLAVIA’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: The Serbian People’s Moment of Truth (ICG Balkans Report N°102)

YUGOSLAVIA’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: The Serbian People’s Moment of Truth (ICG Balkans Report N°102)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

At the time of ICG’s last writing, opinion polls were showing that 50 per cent of the electorate was undecided as to its choice for the Yugoslav presidency.4 We reported that the situation was extremely volatile and could change virtually overnight, and this is precisely what has happened. For the first time since Milosevic came to power in 1989,5 a candidate put forward by a largely unified opposition has developed a large popular following and opened a wide lead in opinion polls.6 Despite a regime crackdown and an aggressive anti-opposition propaganda campaign, Serbia’s sundry opposition forces have at last been galvanised and are optimistic about winning a majority of votes genuinely cast.

WAR CRIMINALS IN BOSNIA’S REPUBLIKA SRPSKA. Who are the People in your Neighbourhood? (ICG Balkans Report N° 103)

WAR CRIMINALS IN BOSNIA’S REPUBLIKA SRPSKA. Who are the People in your Neighbourhood? (ICG Balkans Report N° 103)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: war criminals; war crimes;

This report names individuals in eighteen Republika Srpska municipalities and the Brcko District who are alleged to have committed indictable acts or supervised those who did so, and are therefore potentially indictable for war crimes under the criteria established by the ICTY. Yet they continue to play a prominent role in their respective areas, and present significant barriers to the implementation of the Dayton Peace Accords. Senior international officials know about them. Many meet frequently with international officials and representatives of SFOR. The influence of potential war criminals at the municipal and entity level is an open secret among international officials. The issue is often avoided, since it exposes contradictions between the international community’s commitment to justice and the rule of law, on the one hand, and the temptations of political expediency, on the other. And yet the persistence of radical politics in eastern RS follows logically from the fact that the international community permitted the SDS of indicted war criminal Radovan Karadzic to participate in post-Dayton “democratic” elections. As one mayor in RS noted, “the SDS as a party protects war criminals because to do otherwise would call its entire concept into question.”1 More significantly, the failure to arrest Karadzic himself has sent a message to his wartime colleagues and political successors that they can obstruct return, actively work against Dayton implementation, exploit nationalist sentiments, and remain untouchable.

BOSNIA'S NOVEMBER ELECTIONS: Dayton stumbles (ICG Balkans Report N° 104)

BOSNIA'S NOVEMBER ELECTIONS: Dayton stumbles (ICG Balkans Report N° 104)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Given the series of disappointing election results since the first post-Dayton elections in 1996, it is time for the international community to rethink an inherited strategy that places unrealistic hopes on elections. Instead, the international community should fully exercise the powers given to it under the Dayton Peace Accord to attack the economic and political causes of the tenacity of Bosnian nationalism. This report highlights critical issues demanding immediate decisions: How is the influence of extremists to be curbed? To what extent should the international community try directly to manage a protectorate in Bosnia? And to what extent, and in what respects, should the governance provisions in the Dayton Agreement be modified? Each of these issues will be the subject of forthcoming ICG reports.

RELIGION IN KOSOVO (ICG Balkans Report N° 105)

RELIGION IN KOSOVO (ICG Balkans Report N° 105)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This report seeks to describe the current position of the three major religious communities in Kosovo. In part, it aims to clarify misconceptions about the involvement of religion in the Kosovo conflict. It also proposes some areas where religion might serve as a means to encourage reconciliation among the peoples of Kosovo. Three religions . Islam, Orthodoxy, and Catholicism, have long coexisted in Kosovo. A large majority of Kosovo Albanians consider themselves, at least nominally, to be Muslim. A minority, about 60,000, are Catholic. Most Kosovo Serbs, even those who are not active religious believers, consider Orthodoxy to be an important component of their national identity. Nevertheless, despite this essential division of religious activities along ethnic lines, it cannot be said that religion per se was an important contributing factor in the conflict between Serbs and Albanians.

TURNING STRIFE TO ADVANTAGE. A Blueprint to integrate the Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina (ICG Balkans Report N° 106)

TURNING STRIFE TO ADVANTAGE. A Blueprint to integrate the Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina (ICG Balkans Report N° 106)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

If the international community reverts to form and backs down from a long-term struggle, as the HDZ expects, the extremists will maintain their grip on the Croat community and continue to block the development of a stable, democratic state. This in turn would have consequences beyond the Croat community. It would alienate citizens who are already disillusioned by the glacial speed of reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina. And it would signal to the other entity, the virtually mono-ethnic Republika Srpska (RS), that it can continue to defy efforts to make Dayton work and retain hope of eventually splitting away. ICG presents a blueprint for a strategy in this report. It is designed to provide genuine rewards for individuals and institutions co-operating with the Dayton Accords while applying low-key but legitimate and effective sanctions on those who defy the development of a democratic, stable Bosnia and Herzegovina. It offers a way to engage the constructive elements among the Croats while dividing them from the secessionists, thus giving new impetus to the flagging efforts to build a viable state.

MONTENEGRO: Settling for Independence? (ICG Balkans Report N° 107)

MONTENEGRO: Settling for Independence? (ICG Balkans Report N° 107)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The Montenegrin government and FRY President Vojislav Ko.tunica have presented different proposals to change the relationship between Montenegro and Serbia. In August 1999, the Montenegrin government adopted a .Platform. that envisaged a very loose union, in a single state, with limited joint functions in areas such as monetary policy, defence and foreign policy. In December 2000, a revised platform was presented by Djukanović.s Democratic Party of Socialists and its coalition partner, the smaller Social Democratic Party (SDP). This differed from its predecessor in the key respect that it envisaged a union of two independent states, with separate international subjectivity and two UN seats. In response, in January 2001 Ko.tunica issued a counter-proposal for a functioning federation, with considerable powers devolved to the two republics. Ko.tunica.s proposal was endorsed by Serbia.s ruling Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS).

AFTER MILOSEVIC. A Practical Agenda for Lasting Balkans Peace (ICG Balkans Report N° 108)

AFTER MILOSEVIC. A Practical Agenda for Lasting Balkans Peace (ICG Balkans Report N° 108)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Unsatisfied Nationalism; Underperforming Economies; Undelivered Justice; Unreturned Refugees;

In this report , the International Crisis Group (ICG) makes many recommendations as to how best to move forward, some of them going well beyond the present cautious international consensus. The test for us in each case has not been what is currently acceptable in the diplomatic marketplace - though many of our recommendations should be - but what will contribute to lasting peace, bearing always in mind the need to apply consistent principles and to consider the wider consequences of every action. This report is built on the experience of five years of field-based analysis by the ICG. Since our first project commenced in Sarajevo in 1996, we have produced on the Balkans three book-length reports and over 140 other reports and briefing papers. This is the first time we have tried to look at the region as a whole, addressing all the outstanding issues, applying experience learned elsewhere , and identifying wherever possible common policy themes and approaches . It is an approach we have long been urging upon governments themselves ,who have too often responded in an ad hoc and piecemeal fashion to problems crying out for a comprehensive approach.

THE MACEDONIAN QUESTION: Reform or Rebellion (ICG Balkans Report 109)

THE MACEDONIAN QUESTION: Reform or Rebellion (ICG Balkans Report 109)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In late February, violence flared in Albanian-inhabited villages in northern Macedonia close to the border with Kosovo. In mid March, the violence spread to Macedonia’s second largest city, Tetovo. The rebels claimed to be defending themselves against Macedonian security forces, i.e. their own government, and to be fighting for Albanian national rights in Macedonia. The coalition government in Skopje promptly raised the alarm, blaming Kosovo Albanian elements for exporting rebellion to Macedonia, and calling for the NATO-led forces in Kosovo (KFOR) to seal the border. The rebels claimed they were local Albanians, numbering 2,000 and recruiting dozens of volunteers from the surrounding area every day. Now that the dust around Tetovo has settled, the government and parliament need to face squarely, without panicking, a large political question: Are the Macedonians and Albanians in the country committed to integrated living? Or, should they accept nationalist logic and prepare to negotiate federalisation?

NO EARLY EXIT: NATO's continuing Challenge in Bosnia (ICG Balkans Report N°110)

NO EARLY EXIT: NATO's continuing Challenge in Bosnia (ICG Balkans Report N°110)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

As the civilian international agencies and local democratic forces continue to tackle obstructionist elements, the presence of SFOR to provide a 'safe and secure' environment is more crucial than ever. Recent rioting by Dayton's Bosnian Serb and Croat enemies in Banja Luka, Trebinje and Mostar - and the increasing incidence of attacks on refugees seeking to return to their homes - demonstrate that radical elements have become more desperate and dangerous. Experience has shown that the credible display of force by SFOR is necessary to deter such violence. In addition, more arrests by SFOR of persons indicted by The Hague Tribunal would improve the political and security situations, while making it clear that individuals, not nations, bear responsibility for wartime atrocities.

ALBANIA: The State of the Nation 2001 (ICG Balkans Report N°111)

ALBANIA: The State of the Nation 2001 (ICG Balkans Report N°111)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This report describes the current situation in Albania, paying particular attention to relations with the country’s Balkan neighbours, Kosovo, Montenegro, Macedonia and Greece. The recent upsurge in fighting in the Presevo Valley of southern Serbia and in Macedonia has damaged the reputation of all Albanians in the region and has once more raised the spectre of a Greater Albania. Consequently, the Albanian government has been at pains to stress that it does not support the ethnic Albanian insurgents and wishes to see the territorial integrity of Macedonia upheld. To this end, Tirana has requested NATO’s assistance to secure the Albania-Macedonia border, and has called for a solution to the crisis through dialogue.

A FAIR EXCHANGE: Aid to Yugoslavia for Regional Stability (ICG Balkans Report N° 112)

A FAIR EXCHANGE: Aid to Yugoslavia for Regional Stability (ICG Balkans Report N° 112)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Aid conditionality is an effective tool because the FRY’s shattered economy relies on donor support for numerous social programs, as well as electricity, debt relief, restructuring, and, in the winter, heating. The events leading up to Milosevic’s arrest in the early hours of 1 April 2001 demonstrated the viability of conditionality-based policies. This report argues that major donors should use their leverage by conditioning assistance on concrete actions from the FRY government to fulfil its obligations on three issues vital to regional stability.

MACEDONIA: The Last Chance for Peace (ICG Balkans Report N° 113)

MACEDONIA: The Last Chance for Peace (ICG Balkans Report N° 113)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In the past three months, since mid March 2001, Macedonia has stared into the abyss of inter-ethnic conflict, pulled away from the precipice, squandered opportunities for a political settlement, then returned as if sleepwalking to the brink of civil war. The downward spiral was interrupted on 11 June, when the Macedonian government and the ethnic Albanian rebels agreed to a ceasefire. The following day the government abruptly endorsed a peace plan proposed by President Boris Trajkovski. For their part, the NLA guerrillas expressed a readiness to halt their insurgency but want to see concrete steps towards improving Albanian rights.

MONTENEGRO: Resolving the Independence Deadlock (ICG Balkans Report N° 114)

MONTENEGRO: Resolving the Independence Deadlock (ICG Balkans Report N° 114)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Montenegro‘s authorities remain committed to independence. However, the hopes of the republic‘s ruling parties that the election on 22 April 2001 would bring a comfortable victory, to be followed swiftly by a referendum and independence, were not realised. The narrow victory for the pro-independence parties only confirmed the depth of division over the republic‘s status. Plans for an independence referendum were postponed until early 2002. With some difficulty, the pro-independence ruling parties formed a minority government backed by the radically proindependence Liberal Alliance, which demands rapid progress towards a referendum. However, the lack of a broad consensus on the status issue or on the rules and conditions for a referendum makes it difficult to press ahead with independence plans under current circumstances.

BOSNIA’S PRECARIOUS ECONOMY: Still not open for Business (ICG Balkans Report N° 115)

BOSNIA’S PRECARIOUS ECONOMY: Still not open for Business (ICG Balkans Report N° 115)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The spurt of growth that came with post-war reconstruction is now faltering. The numbers of people unemployed and/or living in poverty are rising. Tax and customs evasion remains rife, undermining the power and legitimacy of governments whose coffers are often empty and need regular replenishment by donors. The debt caused by budget deficits is mortgaging Bosnia’s future. Smugglers and traffickers in goods and people easily and regularly violate Bosnia’s stillporous borders. The black economy remains predominant in Republika Srpska (RS), and is relatively widespread in the Federation as well. The privatisation of strategic enterprises – which should be a major engine of growth – has yet to take place. Increasing numbers of young and educated Bosnians are queuing in front of Western consulates seeking a way to a better future outside the country. Those already living abroad show no sign of returning. Three hundred and forty strikes in 2000, numerous demonstrations over the late or non-payment of pensions, and frequent roadblocks set up by dissatisfied workers testify to a deep economic crisis and simmering social unrest.

PEACE IN PREŠEVO: Quick Fix or Long Term Solution? (ICG Balkans Report N° 116)

PEACE IN PREŠEVO: Quick Fix or Long Term Solution? (ICG Balkans Report N° 116)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This report traces the political process that achieved this transfer of authority over 1,200 square kilometres of territory, focusing on two issues. First, it considers the reforms that are still needed to achieve lasting peace in the Presevo area. Second, it considers the hopeful claim from some quarters that this transfer of authority, based on unprecedented cooperation between NATO and the new regime in Belgrade, may offer a model for tackling other disputes in the wider neighbourhood. The circumstances of peacemaking in Presevo were unique and cannot be emulated elsewhere. Recent events, moreover, illustrate that declarations of victory by Western observers remain premature. The insurgency in southern Serbia reflected real and deeply rooted problems, both local and regional. Conditions for reconciliation are in place, but the process itself has hardly begun. The longer term prospects for peaceful reintegration now depend on effective follow through by the Serbian authorities assisted by ethnic Albanian leaders and the international community.

SERBIA’S TRANSITION: Reforms under Siege (ICG Balkans Report N° 117)

SERBIA’S TRANSITION: Reforms under Siege (ICG Balkans Report N° 117)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Kostunica’s DSS led the attacks against a group of reform-oriented, relatively pragmatic politicians centred mostly around Serbian Premier Zoran Djindjic and his Democratic Party (DS). The severity of the DSS attack dealt a heavy blow to the coalition and changed the face of Serbian politics. Although the two sides may soon patch up their differences, the fallout from the events surrounding the ‘Gavrilovic Affair’ will be widespread and could affect the pace and extent of political and economic reforms, as well as Yugoslavia’s cooperation with the international community and its neighbours. So too the lack of civilian control over the Yugoslav Army (VJ) has become more apparent. In regional terms, at stake in the current struggle within DOS are the continuation of FRY funding for the Army of Bosnia’s Republika Srpska, Belgrade’s stance towards UNMIK, and the question of further cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY).