MACEDONIA: TOWARDS DESTABILISATION? The Kosovo crisis takes its toll on Macedonia (ICG Report N° 67)

MACEDONIA: TOWARDS DESTABILISATION? The Kosovo crisis takes its toll on Macedonia (ICG Report N° 67)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kosovar refugees in Macedonia;

Since NATO bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia began on 24 March 1999, Macedonia has been in an extremely vulnerable frontline position, facing an unmanageable influx of refugees from Kosovo, the prospect of economic collapse and volatile domestic interethnic relations. This report, prepared by ICG’s field analyst in Skopje, gives a candid assessment of the current situation in Macedonia and pinpoints the threats to the country’s stability that have arisen out of the Kosovo conflict.

THE BALKAN REFUGEE CRISIS: Regional and long-term Perspectives. (ICG Balkans Report N° 68)

THE BALKAN REFUGEE CRISIS: Regional and long-term Perspectives. (ICG Balkans Report N° 68)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Displaced persons; refugees; Humanitarian evacuation; refugees return;

This report argues in favour of providing temporary protection2 for refugees in the region, with the aim of them returning home at the earliest opportunity. Temporary protection is necessary to maintain pressure on Belgrade and demonstrate our commitment to reverse the effects of ethnic cleansing. But this report argues for more realism in relation to the length of time it will take to reverse the present refugee flow. Lessons from Croatia and Bosnia have demonstrated that there is no such thing as fast voluntary return in the wake of war and ethnic cleansing3. Perhaps induced, but most likely not voluntary. Non-voluntary return of refugees is a very sensitive issue. The international community can only try to circumvent it by striving to put in place the necessary conditions that would make return acceptable to Kosovo refugees. This report discusses these key conditions and calls for the establishment of a comprehensive repatriation plan. Strong regional management structures must be established by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in order to develop, co-ordinate and implement the strategy for the return process.

THE NEW KOSOVO PROTECTORATE (ICG Balkans Report N°69)

THE NEW KOSOVO PROTECTORATE (ICG Balkans Report N°69)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kosovo status;

The ICG Balkans Report N°66, “Kosovo: Let’s Learn from Bosnia”, of 17 May 1999 looked at how experience in Bosnia could be useful in Kosovo, and also at the extent to which the Rambouillet agreement of 23 February 1999 resembled the Dayton agreement of 21 November 1995. Now, following the campaign of NATO air strikes against Yugoslavia, a new framework of military and civilian involvement in Kosovo has been established by means of UN Security Council Resolution 1244 of 10 June 1999. This mechanism ensures the legality of the operation and contents the Russians and Chinese. It has also left the UN in charge of civilian implementation.

BACK TO THE FUTURE: Milosevic Prepares for Life After Kosovo (ICG Balkans Report N°70)

BACK TO THE FUTURE: Milosevic Prepares for Life After Kosovo (ICG Balkans Report N°70)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO intervention;

Milosevic managed to survive the recent NATO onslaught in part by parlaying resentment against NATO into a wave of public support for his dictatorship. Adept at manipulating popular culture, the regime used such fortuitous events as the timing of the NATO action, coming only weeks before the anniversary of the Nazi bombing of Belgrade in the Second World War, to link the Western alliance with fascism in the public mind. Television programming gave prominence to heroic tales of WW2 partisan fighters, suggesting to the public how they might interpret NATO action. Any Western popular culture, from film to music to television, that degraded Western values or painted the West in a negative light also received wide play, and was clearly aimed at showing the decadence of the Alliance. Now with the war over, Milosevic continues to use the media to his advantage. While the rest of the world learns about the appalling atrocities committed in Kosovo against ethnic Albanians and recoils at images of torture dungeons and mass graves, the Serbian media continue to play up stories claiming that the Serbs were the real victims, brutalised as they were by both NATO aggression and Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) terrorism.

REPUBLIKA SRPSKA IN THE POST-KOSOVO ERA: Collateral Damage and Transformation (ICG Report N° 71)

REPUBLIKA SRPSKA IN THE POST-KOSOVO ERA: Collateral Damage and Transformation (ICG Report N° 71)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Dayton agreement; Refugees return; war crimes;

Repercussions from Kosovo continue to shake Republika Srpska (RS), and may prove a catalyst for further transformation and reform. The war’s collateral damage included severance of trade ties with the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY); a dramatic rise in unemployment; a sharp drop in production and state revenues; and a tide of Serbian refugees from FRY into RS. Despite this the security situation, which looked dangerous at the beginning of April, did not deteriorate out of control, and the government in Banja Luka was able to stabilise its position and survive. The government itself deserves credit for keeping its head throughout the crisis. The international community, especially OHR and the US government, did good work behind the scenes keeping the ruling Sloga coalition together. And a generally well-judged and lowkey response by SFOR managed to strike a balance between preserving security and not provoking incidents by its own actions. As Republika Srpska enters the post-Kosovo era it faces a crossroads, both economically and politically. RS now can move forward towards an integrated European future as part of BiH. Or it can move backwards, towards economic, social and political misery.

RULE OVER LAW: Obstacles to the Development of an Independent Judiciary in Bosnia and Herzegovina. (Bosnia Legal Project Report N° 1)

RULE OVER LAW: Obstacles to the Development of an Independent Judiciary in Bosnia and Herzegovina. (Bosnia Legal Project Report N° 1)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The BiH judiciary is in transition. In the former SFRJ system, the judiciary ceded much control to the police to determine guilt in the field of criminal justice investigation, thus reducing elements of their authority in the legal process. Furthermore, Communist Party officials often interfered in the justice system. This interference has continued and even increased under the multi-party system. Two separate legal systems in BiH exist, with only ceremonial and appeals institutions and functions at the State level, in spite of the BiH Constitution which allows for the formation of more State court institutions. Within the Federation, loopholes in the legislation on the Supreme Court allow Croat-majority cantons to refuse to recognise the authority and the jurisdiction of the Supreme Court, thus containing all court functions within the jurisdiction of that Canton. Weak roles for Public Prosecutors, plus anomalies in the legislation which make it hard for strong, Federation-level judges to try cross-cantonal crimes, leave highly autonomous Cantonal Courts open to political influence from ruling parties.

PREVENTING MINORITY RETURN IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: The Anatomy of Hate and Fear (ICG Report N° 73)

PREVENTING MINORITY RETURN IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: The Anatomy of Hate and Fear (ICG Report N° 73)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: minority returns;

This paper examines the motives driving the attitude of Bosnian authorities, ranging from simple racism to the genuine need to protect displaced people already occupying the property of potential returnees. It then looks at the factors underlying the decision of the individual prospective returnee whether to go back or not. It goes on to examine the record in several locations in Bosnia and suggests which factors have been at work in these cases. The report concludes that many of the arguments used by Bosnian authorities to obstruct return appear reasonable to the authorities themselves but may conceal less reasonable arguments which are actually more important. It would be better to remove these ‘justifiable’ reasons from the argument altogether. Against this background the report examines the policy responses available to the international community, and advocates an approach based on treating return not as a separate problem but as an aspect of the more general question of rule of law throughout Bosnia and Herzegovina. The report suggests that, without sacrificing successful elements of the existing policy, this might change the terms of the debate, making opposition to return much more difficult to defend with reasonable-looking arguments, since rule of law is an ideal endorsed (in public) by all forces in BiH, and accepted as a necessary condition of entry into the Western family of nations and, in due course, the European Union

THE POLICING GAP: Law and Order in the New Kosovo (ICG Balkans Report N° 74)

THE POLICING GAP: Law and Order in the New Kosovo (ICG Balkans Report N° 74)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

During June and July 1999 international military and civilian organisations entered a territory from which every form of administration and authority had become suddenly absent. Their job was to provide all forms of government while preparing the people of Kosovo to take over that responsibility. // Such a difficult and unprecedented task, the imposition of a foreign administration on a society technically in anarchy, is bound to encounter problems. This report examines the issue of law and order, a natural priority in a society so recently subject to fundamental upheaval. It attempts to assess whether permanent damage is being suffered in this difficult early period, when policing is being carried out by KFOR soldiers pending the deployment of the UN Civilian Police. It concludes by suggesting how the risk of damage can be minimised.

TRANSFORMING SERBIA: The Key to Long-term Balkan Stability (ICG Report N° 75)

TRANSFORMING SERBIA: The Key to Long-term Balkan Stability (ICG Report N° 75)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: SPS party; JUL party; political class in Serbia;

This paper furnishes an overview of the economic and political situation in Serbia and examines in detail the effect of recent events on the linchpins of Milosevic’s power - his political network and its tentacle-like infrastructure, his circle of cronies, the military and police. The paper also looks closely at the ambiguous roles of the Serbian Orthodox Church and the ultra-nationalist right and at the state of the opposition and the movement to remove him from office. An appendix offers essential background and analysis of key opposition figures and groups.

WHO'S WHO IN KOSOVO (ICG Balkans Report N°76)

WHO'S WHO IN KOSOVO (ICG Balkans Report N°76)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: political parties in Kosovo;

This paper offers a brief guide to the leading indigenous political organisations and personalities in Kosovo/Kosova. The authority of the international civil and military presence in Kosovo rests on UN Security Council Resolution 1244 of 10 June 1999. Under international law no other authority enjoys any legitimacy until the UN administration grants it. Specifically, the international civil presence is tasked with: “Organizing and overseeing the development of provisional institutions for democratic and autonomous self-government pending a political settlement…” The UN, as a step towards fulfillment of this task, has created an advisory and consultative Transitional Council, composed of representatives of Kosovar Albanian political parties and leaders from minority communities. It has had a shaky start, meeting only once in July and twice in August, though meetings are now planned weekly.

MACEDONIA: Gearing up for Presidential Elections (ICG Balkans Report N°77)

MACEDONIA: Gearing up for Presidential Elections (ICG Balkans Report N°77)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: 1999 presidential elections in Macedonia;

Six candidates will contest the 1999 presidential elections, all of them backed by political parties. A number of independents who earlier declared their intention to run in the elections either failed to gather the necessary signatures or withdrew before submitting the necessary documentation to the State Electoral Commission. Plans by the ruling coalition to field a common candidate fell apart, and all three coalition parties nominated their own candidates. The opposition also failed to agree on a joint candidate, as did the two major Albanian parties (one of which is in the government, the other in opposition).

VIOLENCE IN KOSOVO: Who's Killing Whom? (ICG Balkans Report N°78)

VIOLENCE IN KOSOVO: Who's Killing Whom? (ICG Balkans Report N°78)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bujar Bukoshi; KLA; KFOR; Roma in Kosovo; Gorani in Kosovo;

In protest at the formation of the KPC, Kosovo Serb leaders walked out of the UN-backed Transitional Council saying that the transformation of the KLA into the KPC had "violated the declared multiethnic nature of Kosovo".5 Kosovo Serb leader, Momcilo Trajkovic, claimed that: "As long as the decision on the formation of the Kosovo Protection Corps was not withdrawn, then the Kosovo Serbs would not return to the Council, nor would they cooperate with those that were the creators of the transformation of the KLA."6 Some Kosovo Serb leaders have also put forward the idea of forming a rival “Serb Protection Force,” though that idea has been rejected by the international community, which insists that the KPC will include 10% minorities.7 The question remains who is doing the killing and, in consequence, furthering the destabilisation of Kosovo? NATO and the UN blame most of the crimes on a small number of extremists. That assumption appears plausible, but there are several distinct groups who may, for different reasons, be responsible for most, or part of, the continuation of violence in Kosovo. They are: radicalised ethnic Albanians; the KLA8; criminals from Albania proper; participants in internal ethnic Albanian conflict; and Serb paramilitary groups,

WAITING FOR UNMIK: Local Administration in Kosovo (ICG Balkans Report N° 79)

WAITING FOR UNMIK: Local Administration in Kosovo (ICG Balkans Report N° 79)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This report seeks to identify the main reasons why this uncomfortable position has been reached, and identify a way forward. UNMIK’s administrators have arrived late in their assigned municipality, with little clear guidance about the job facing them and the circumstances they would be working in. Lack of funding and personnel leaves them in a position where they continuously have to improvise, while still waiting for guidelines from headquarters in Prishtinë/Priština. They are in many cases forced to tell the self-proclaimed Albanian communal authorities, which they cannot formally recognise but must work with on a day-to-day basis, to wait a little longer. The waiting is then handed down to the population, which remains unserved and unserviced into the fifth month. Growing impatience can be observed at every level. This report argues for a negotiated and therefore more pragmatic approach: while the UN should hold the political authority in municipalities, the existing structure should be co-opted as a non-political executive.

IS DAYTON FAILING? Bosnia Four Years After The Peace Agreement (ICG Balkans Report N°80)

IS DAYTON FAILING? Bosnia Four Years After The Peace Agreement (ICG Balkans Report N°80)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Dayton agreement;

In anticipation of the fourth anniversary on 21 November 1999 of the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords, this report presents a detailed analysis of the agreement and the future of the Bosnian peace process. The report assesses efforts to implement the agreement annex by annex, identifying obstacles to continued progress and setting out key choices facing international policymakers. A traditional peace treaty consists of a cease-fire and arms reduction and boundary demarcation agreements. Dayton went far beyond these goals to create a state, comprised of two multi-ethnic entities. Dayton's aim was to not only stop the fighting, but to reverse ethnic cleansing and provide a blueprint for a new, unified country.

ALL QUIET ON THE SERBIAN FRONT? (ICG Balkans Report N° 81)

ALL QUIET ON THE SERBIAN FRONT? (ICG Balkans Report N° 81)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The conclusion of this report, which begins with a journey through recent history, is that an effective strategy vis-à-vis Milosevic must be predicated on a much better understanding of how the dictator plays politics. In the absence of international resolve to liquidate his tenure and his leadership, the first and last recommendation is linked to the observation that the international community IC become more adept at deciphering the dictator’s political chess game. From there, the IC must have a clearer picture of how it wants to cope with the dictatorship. If the aim is merely to unseat him, and to enhance the chances of the reformist opposition, then concrete steps must be taken to avoid open and public linkages with the opposition that will yield only propaganda dividends for the dictatorship.

STARTING FROM SCRATCH IN KOSOVO: The Honeymoon Is Over (ICG Balkans Report N° 83)

STARTING FROM SCRATCH IN KOSOVO: The Honeymoon Is Over (ICG Balkans Report N° 83)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In this paper, the International Crisis Group (ICG) examines the performance of the international community in five key areas: security, the provision of basic services, civil registration and documentation, elections, and justice and the rule of law. The paper recommends ways to improve that performance, including: more robust enforcement by NATO’s Kosovo Force of its protection mandate and the accelerated deployment of adequately trained international and local police; the acceleration as well of donor follow-through, the provision of basic services, civil registration, the creation of identity documents, voters’ lists, and applicable criminal and civil legal codes; and a reexamination by the aid community of how best to achieve its desirable goals and outcomes in Kosovo.

RULE OF LAW IN PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION: Confusion and Discrimination in a Post-Communist Bureaucracy (ICG Balkans Report N° 84)

RULE OF LAW IN PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION: Confusion and Discrimination in a Post-Communist Bureaucracy (ICG Balkans Report N° 84)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The unsatisfactory functioning of municipal and cantonal administrations has a negative effect on both the legal system and the rule of law, and drastically affects the administration's main role -– the implementation of laws and regulations. Many laws go partially or entirely un-enforced. This report makes specific recommendations to strengthen the functioning of public administration. By and large these build on already-existing civil service procedures on the books, both in Republika Srpska and the Federation. These include: enforcing existing civil service laws, enforcing existing hiring procedures, increasing the degree of governmental "userfriendliness," increasing public access to records and documents, de-linking the public administration financing from political party control, and strengthening the municipal oversight system under existing JSAP authorisation.

ALBANIANS in SERBIAN PRISONS. Ksosovo’s unfinished Business. (ICG Balkans Report N° 85)

ALBANIANS in SERBIAN PRISONS. Ksosovo’s unfinished Business. (ICG Balkans Report N° 85)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

While the international community does not itself have the capacity to free these prisoners, it must find ways to exert maximum pressure on Milošević to order their release. Thousands of Albanian lives are at stake: reports from recently released prisoners and from family members make clear that the prisoners' conditions in the Serbian facilities are appalling, their health has been severely compromised, they are routinely subjected to mistreatment and torture, and their trials are travesties. In addition, many prisoners’ families have been effectively ransomed by Serbian lawyers, who have promised to secure the release of prisoners for sums ranging from 10,000 to 50,000 DM. The emotional and material strain on prisoners' families contributes to Kosovo's continuing unrest and to the immense frustration Kosovars feel toward the international agencies which, in part out of a dearth of options to pursue, have not made a top priority of locating the prisoners or advocating on their behalf. // In this paper ICG attempts to clarify the somewhat complex situation with regard to the Albanian prisoners, to make available first-hand information about Serbian prison conditions gathered in interviews with ex-prisoners and prisoners' family members, to elucidate the pertinent legal issues, and to propose a series of measures that governments and non-government organisations might take toward identifying the prisoners and securing their release.

DENIED JUSTICE: Individuals Lost in a Legal Maze (ICG Balkans Report N° 86)

DENIED JUSTICE: Individuals Lost in a Legal Maze (ICG Balkans Report N° 86)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Thousands of people try to find their way daily through an immensely complicated labyrinth established by the three separate and very often conflicting legal systems in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Evidence presented in this report, the third in the ICG legal project series, proves that unexplained time delays, dubious application of law and blatant ethnic discrimination contribute greatly to the ad hoc nature of Bosnian justice. This report scrutinises six individual cases of ethnic and political discrimination. Recommendations are presented to counteract the violations committed by judges and prosecutors in these cases and to ensure that such violations are prevented in the future, through the strengthening of the concept of rule of law and of judicial and prosecutorial independence. Data on the cases contained herein was provided by ICG partner organisations based throughout Bosnia and Herzegovina. All are Bosnian NGOs providing, inter alia, free legal aid to Bosnian citizens.

ALBANIA: STATE OF THE NATION (ICG Balkans Report N° 87)

ALBANIA: STATE OF THE NATION (ICG Balkans Report N° 87)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Albanian nation - Albanian state;

In an effort to consolidate the gains made during the last year – namely the ‘liberation’ of Kosovo from Belgrade’s rule – Albanians from both sides of the Kosovo border are endeavouring to weaken the structural division between Albania and Kosovo. The improvement of transportation and communication links is aimed at providing Kosovo with access to an Adriatic sea port, whilst helping to alleviate the chronic unemployment in Albania’s northern districts by re-establishing traditional trading links between towns on both sides of the border. Such moves, however, are being interpreted by some of Albania’s neighbours as the first steps in the process of creating a Greater Albania. This is strenuously denied by both Albanian and Kosovo Albanian leaders who, despite acknowledging their nation’s desire at some point in the future to see a unification of all Albanians into one state, recognise that for the foreseeable future the Albanians of Albania have different and far more pressing issues to address from those in the former Yugoslavia, and vice versa.