Serbia’s EU Accession Path: European Integration without Democratization?

Serbia’s EU Accession Path: European Integration without Democratization?

Author(s): Jana Juzová,Nikola Burazer,Oszkár Roginer / Language(s): English

Keywords: Serbia; EU accession; democratization; rule of law; corruption; judical independence; media freedom; organized crime; human rights; political crisis;

In almost 11 years of candidate status and almost 9 years of accession negotiations, Serbia has made very little tangible progress towards membership in the EU. By December 2022 it only managed to open 22 out of 35 negotiating chapters, provisionally closing only two, which were both closed on the same day in which they were opened. European Commission noted very small progress when it comes to preparedness for membership since 2015, and Serbia’s own reports on adopting the necessary EU legislation show significant delays. Even more disturbingly, Serbia is arguably a less democratic state than it was at the time of opening accession negotiations, witnessing significant deterioration of its democratic institutions and major political crises, including a parliamentary and election opposition boycott from 2019 to 2022.

Resilient Europe: Best Practices from across the Continent in Building Resilient Societies

Resilient Europe: Best Practices from across the Continent in Building Resilient Societies

Author(s): Veronika Víchová,Nikoleta Nemečkayová,Jonáš Syrovátka / Language(s): English

Keywords: resilient societies; hybrid threats; information manipulation; strategic communication; public trust; digital space; EU cohesion; media literacy; cybersecurity; community engagement;

The "Resilient Europe" conference held in Prague in October 2024 gathered leading experts, policymakers, and stakeholders from across Europe to share insights, best practices, and challenges faced in countering these threats. This policy paper distills the core insights from the conference under three primary categories: hybrid threats, information manipulation in the digital space, and strategic communication. These categories encompass a broad range of actions taken by European nations and institutions to safeguard democratic resilience, and this paper further identifies the most pressing challenges and opportunities for future efforts.

Advancing EU Enlargement beyond 2024: Opportunities and Challenges ahead

Advancing EU Enlargement beyond 2024: Opportunities and Challenges ahead

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU enlargement; democratic reforms; geostrategic interests; Western Balkans; Ukraine; Moldova; conditionality; integration; rule of law; accession negotiations.

The year 2024 marked an important moment in the European Union's enlargement process, as it oversaw significant progress, particularly in the case of Ukraine, Moldova and Montenegro, but also persistent challenges in the case of certain countries. The first intergovernmental conference with Ukraine and Moldova was held in June, formally launching the accession negotiations with the two countries, which started with the bilateral screening process. Following the European Commission’s recommendation, in March the EU leaders agreed in principle to open EU accession negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina, once it would fulfil all conditions specified by the Commission. Montenegro achieved an important milestone on its EU accession path by closing interim benchmarks in key chapters 23 and 24, encompassing the ‘fundamentals’ of the accession process, after receiving a positive assessment in the Interim Benchmark Assessment Report (IBAR) in June. The accession negotiations with Albania formally started in October by opening the first cluster on the fundamentals, a step previously blocked by Greece due to the arrest of the ethnic Greek mayor of the Albanian municipality of Himarë.

Illiberalising EU enlargement to the Western Balkans

Illiberalising EU enlargement to the Western Balkans

Author(s): Alejandro Esteso Pérez / Language(s): English

Keywords: illiberalism; EU enlargement; Western Balkans; Serbia; Hungary; Albania; Italy; democratic backsliding; authoritarianism; political tradeoffs;

This paper develops an introductory insight into the process of illiberalisation of EU enlargement as both a policy and a political process. By shifting away from the many institutional accounts that focus exclusively on the role of the European Commission (EC), it awards a stronger agency to candidate countries and Member States—which at times gets diluted or simply goes overlooked—in an attempt to highlight their responsibilities and accountabilities throughout the process. It proposes an exploratory causal model to track illiberalisation, whereby candidate countries and Member States interact with each other in search of leverage and political tradeoffs, ultimately leading to an illiberal manipulation of the EU enlargement policy. It explores two pairs of countries, all illiberal to varying degrees—Serbia and Hungary, and Albania and Italy—which showcase different structural traits, both in their bilateral relations and in themselves, and which reveal that the illiberalisation of EU enlargement is conducted at different speeds and through very diverse channels. The study draws from qualitative data sources featuring a set of six semi-structured interviews with representatives from EU institutions—including the EC and the European Parliament (EP)—and Member States, think-tanks, and academia conducted in Prague, Brussels and online between late October and early December 2024. The documentary analysis is further informed and complemented by a series of written secondary data including news stories, press statements, policy documents, and academic journal articles.

Democratic Participation, Integration, and Trust within the Visegrád Group: Twenty years since European Union Integration

Democratic Participation, Integration, and Trust within the Visegrád Group: Twenty years since European Union Integration

Author(s): Henry Barrett / Language(s): English

Keywords: Visegrád Group; EU integration; democratic participation; institutional trust; Euroscepticism; populism; corruption; national interests; Europeanness; rule of law;

The development of the European Union (EU) in the 21st century has been marked by notably transformative events, increasing at a seemingly exponential rate; the Great Recession of 2008, the Eurozone debt crisis of 2010, the migrant crisis of 2015, Brexit in 2016, rule of law backsliding escalating in 2018, the Covid-19 Pandemic of 2020, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Despite the punditry’s1 cyclically2 mimetic3 declarations that the European project faces its decisive breaking point and imminent collapse, the political union has consistently endured. Certain pockets of EU Member States have responded to these various crises by operating within distinct social, economic, and historic cohorts. One key manifestation of this “minilateralism”4 among EU Member States is the Visegrád Group (V4)—composed of Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. There exist other alliances within the EU Member States—Benelux, the EU Three, or the Weimar Triangle. However, the V4 stands out in 2024 as a particularly notable grouping of EU Member States for a host of reasons. Considering this year is the 20th anniversary of EU enlargement to these countries, it is a particularly auspicious time to assess their current state of integration into the EU project.

Predicting the Unpredictable: Making Sense of Transatlantic Relations for 2025 Post Transatlantic Policy Forum 2024

Predicting the Unpredictable: Making Sense of Transatlantic Relations for 2025 Post Transatlantic Policy Forum 2024

Author(s): Danielle Piatkiewicz,Mateusz M. Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Transatlantic relations; Trump administration; Ukraine reconstruction; NATO enlargement; EU integration; Indo-Pacific strategy; China; economic coercion; election integrity; military aid;

The forum tackled a wide range of topics, starting with the state of global democracy in the wake of a ‘super year’ pivotal election and the rising influence of AI-fueled misinformation and disinformation campaigns. Discussions examined NATO’s and the EU’s enlargement policies, particularly Ukraine’s membership ambitions and their potential impact on EU integration and security. This tied seamlessly into deeper conversations about cooperative efforts for Ukraine’s reconstruction, showcasing shared strategies and resources. Discussions then turned its focus to collective security in an increasingly multipolar world, addressing transatlantic approaches to challenges from major powers like Russia and China, alongside regional issues in the Middle East and Taiwan and emphasized the need for Europe to step up significantly in its own defense and military resources. Sessions also delved into global trade practices and explored the future of transatlantic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, emphasizing economic resilience and strategies for de-risking. This policy paper compiles the key insights and deliberations from the Forum, which adhered to the Chatham House Rule to protect participant confidentiality. Based on the engaging discussions, this paper offers a comprehensive set of takeaways, including actionable recommendations and a strategic “To-Do list” for the transatlantic alliance in the coming years.

Trade, Money, Power: A Recipe for a Green and Competitive Europe?

Trade, Money, Power: A Recipe for a Green and Competitive Europe?

Author(s): Filip Křenek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Green Europa; Paris agreement;

The 2024 European Parliament elections have renewed discussions around the EU’s commitment to achieving net zero by 2050. Between 2019-2023, EU public support for this goal has dropped by 3 percentage with Czechia and Slovakia recording the largest decreases of 14 and 11 percentage points. Czech households experienced some of the highest electricity prices across Europe, fueling public distrusts against EU clean energy policies. As a result, pre-electoral discussions were framed in terms of reversing, stopping or recalibrating the Green Deal, not just in Czechia, but across the continent. In terms of priorities, climate and environment still feature high on the agenda for EU citizens, but have been surpassed by security and defenceand high costs of living. Similarly, the new European Strategic Agenda for 2024-2029 puts more emphasis on security and economic prosperity. To address these issues, this policy paper looks into three areas, which are necessary to safeguard EU’s competitiveness and climate ambitions: trade policy, capital markets union and energy. The topic of industrial policy, which also plays a crucial role, was addressed in a previous publication.

Transatlantic Transitions: Strategies for 2025 and beyond

Transatlantic Transitions: Strategies for 2025 and beyond

Author(s): Danielle Piatkiewicz,Mateusz M. Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: transatlantic relations;

The "Transatlantic Policy Forum 2024 Backgrounder" paper outlines key strategic challenges and policy directions for the transatlantic relationship as the U.S. approaches its 2024 presidential election. It addresses anticipated issues in transatlantic cooperation, including NATO and EU enlargement, response to the war in Ukraine, security in Central and Eastern Europe, and rising geopolitical tensions with China. The paper emphasizes the need for the U.S. and Europe to strengthen alliances to face challenges like election integrity threats, a multipolar trade system, and authoritarian influences.Key topics include the importance of a united front on Ukraine's defense and reconstruction, enhanced European defense capabilities, clear policies on NATO and EU expansion, and balancing transatlantic and Indo-Pacific engagements. Additionally, it discusses potential economic tensions, specifically in trade and climate subsidies, which could strain U.S.-EU relations depending on the 2024 election outcome. The report concludes with recommendations for bolstering EU leadership, sustaining support for Ukraine, and expanding the EU's strategic role in the Indo- Pacific, especially as U.S. priorities may shift globally.

Circularity and the Life Cycle of Batteries and structural Materials in the Automotive Industry as an Opportunity for the Czech Republic

Circularity and the Life Cycle of Batteries and structural Materials in the Automotive Industry as an Opportunity for the Czech Republic

Author(s): Tadeáš Rulík,Filip Křenek,Benjamin Hague / Language(s): English

Keywords: Batteries; decarbonisation;

The EU automotive industry, with its long history of producing internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), is facing a historic transformation towards electrification and decarbonisation. The main reasons for this are both the EU's target of zero CO2 exhaust emissions for new vehicles by 2035 and the growing competition from China, which already dominates the production of electric vehicles and their components. European car manufacturers are facing higher production costs and external dependence on critical raw materials. Mario Draghi's report for the European Commission on the future of European competitiveness highlights the need for a long-term industrial strategy encompassing all phases from research and development to recycling and raw material recovery, with a focus on small and affordable electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles and the circular economy.

NAVIGATING THE DIGITAL WORKFORCE FRONTIER. How can we leverage the free movement of labour in a digitalising single market?

NAVIGATING THE DIGITAL WORKFORCE FRONTIER. How can we leverage the free movement of labour in a digitalising single market?

Author(s): Silke Maes / Language(s): English

Keywords: teleworking; digitization;

With teleworking becoming increasingly prevalent, new opportunities and new obstacles are arising, and tax, social security, and labour laws based on physical presence might need an update. To get an overview of the challenges and solutions for cross-border telework, this policy paper will examine how the EU should adapt to leverage the free movement of labour in a digitalising Single Market. Firstly, this article will dive into why remote work is still difficult. Secondly, it will explore why regulating telework is not yet a priority. Finally, the article will explore how tax law, social security coordination rules and labour law could be adjusted to the era of digital work.

Winning the Race for AI without picking the Winners: How the EU can use industrial Policy to unlock Competition and spur AI Innovation

Winning the Race for AI without picking the Winners: How the EU can use industrial Policy to unlock Competition and spur AI Innovation

Author(s): Silke Maes / Language(s): English

Keywords: Artificial intelligence;

The advent of AI presents both a promise and a peril for Europe’s economic future. Widespread AI adoption across public and private sectors may lift productivity substantially. That requires European solutions adapted to local needs and languages. The peril is, however, that Europe needs strong companies in the AI value chain or otherwise the EU will lose leverage in an increasingly transactional global environment and put its long-term economic security and competitiveness at risk. At present, this outcome is more likely: The EU’s current AI strategy has failed to deliver, the European Court of Auditors (ECA) found in May 2024, citing poor coordination among member states and overreliance on national state aid and inefficient subsidies.

Czechia and NATO: Building a more Capable, Connected and Credible European Pillar

Czechia and NATO: Building a more Capable, Connected and Credible European Pillar

Author(s): Benjamin Tallis / Language(s): English

Keywords: European security; NATO;

Twenty-five years after NATO’s first ‘Eastern enlargement’, the role of Central and Eastern European (CEE) allies has never been more important to European security. CEE allies will be key to building NATO’s much discussed – and much needed – ‘European Pillar’. This pillar will only work to keep the ‘Americans in’ and the ‘Russians out’ if it is inside NATO (rather than autonomous or in the EU) and is capabilities-based (rather than formal or institutional). CEE allies must now build on the strides they have made in the last two years, demanding recognition for the contributions they have and are making, to take the lead in building the European pillar – and being relied on to do so. Zooming in on Czechia, as a particular but also indicative case, this paper outlines how this CEE ally can continue to contribute to building the capabilities that Europe needs and how, by doing so with allies firmly in mind, it can become a strategic security provider and exercise greater influence.

Enlargement on Hold: The Price Europe pays

Enlargement on Hold: The Price Europe pays

Author(s): Jelena Džankić,Matteo Bonomi,Jana Juzová,Bojana Zorić / Language(s): English

This paper assesses the effects and trade-offs of the different enlargement modalities that could be applied to the Western Balkan and Eastern European candidates, focusing on economy, democracy and security. The authors depart from the lessons of the past, drawing insights from the 2004 ‘Big Bang’ enlargement, the 2007 enlargement to Bulgaria and Romania, and the two decades of European integration in the Western Balkan states. Looking ahead, a common vision and strategy among EU institutions, member states, and candidate countries are crucial for navigating the complexities of the enlargement process. Coordinated decision-making and a commitment to upholding European values will be essential in ensuring the integrity and effectiveness of the EU's enlargement strategy, shaping the future of the European continent and the EU's role on the global stage.

Managing Imperial Decline: A new EU Policy towards Russia

Managing Imperial Decline: A new EU Policy towards Russia

Author(s): Huga Blewett-Mundy / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU-Russia relations;Russian imperialism;

On 24th February 2022, Vladimir Putin, who was elected Russia’s president in 2000, launched a full-scale invasion (or what he called a ‘special military operation’) of Ukraine in an escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian war that started in 2014. Notwithstanding the brutality of this unprovoked act of military aggression, it is not the first time that Russia has violated and threatened the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its neighbours. On its eastern frontiers, what the European Union (EU) has been confronting is nothing less than the return of the centuriesold force, Russian imperialism. The existential challenge facing Ukraine, and the postwar process of European integration, means that the EU can no longer return to a business-as-usual approach towards Russia. Rather, the goal of the EU’s Russia policy should be to consolidate a secure and democratically resilient European eastern neighbourhood. As one of the world’s strongest normative and economic powers, the EU has the capabilities to address the revival of Russian expansionism, both in the short- and long-term.

HERE TO STAY, BUT IN WHAT FORM? Researching the potential of cross-border telework in the digital economy

HERE TO STAY, BUT IN WHAT FORM? Researching the potential of cross-border telework in the digital economy

Author(s): Silke Maes / Language(s): English

Keywords: teleworking; home-office;

Despite the uptake of various forms of telework (fully remote, hybrid and workcations), there is currently no bespoke status for employees wishing to work remotely across member state borders. This brings various challenges with respect to social security and taxes and creates hindrances for both employees and employers in cross-border situations. In light of such administrative obstacles and disadvantages, companies either decide to prohibit telework altogether or do it in a way that places significant administrative burdens on the worker. This is a missed opportunity. First, the lack of regulation targeted at facilitating cross-border telework hampers the completion of a true Digital Single Market with freedom of labour and services. Second, several studies have pointed to the advantages that more cross-border telework can provide for employees, employers, and the EU economy as a whole. Second, several studies have pointed to the advantages that more cross-border telework can provide for employees, employers, and the EU economy as a whole.

The current Design of EU industrial Policy undermines Economic Approach between old and new EU States

Současná podoba průmyslové politiky EU podkopává ekonomické přibližování mezi starými a novými státy EU

Author(s): Klára Votavová / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: COVID-19 ; inner-EU relations;

The post-communist states of Central and Eastern Europe, including the Czech Republic, joined the European Union at a time of peak globalization and the dominance of the so-called Washington Consensus policies. However, the global economic crisis of 2008 soon showed that these policies had their limits. Liberalization, deregulation, strict fiscal policy, and the relocation of factories to poorer continents did not improve the living standards of the poorer segments of the Western population, which led to an increase in the popularity of state interventions and nationalist approaches to economic policy. Events of the next decade and a half further strengthened the established trend towards deglobalization and securitization of world trade. The COVID-19 pandemic and Russian aggression in Ukraine revealed the fragility of global value chains and motivated states to strengthen their domestic industrial capacities. The ongoing race for dominance in the field of green and digital technologies and China’s growing ambitions, in turn, fueled tensions in global trade relations.

Climate Change and Food Resilience in Africa and the Middle East

Climate Change and Food Resilience in Africa and the Middle East

Author(s): Clément Steuer / Language(s): English

Keywords: global crises; resilience; European Green Deal;

The Russian war in Ukraine destabilized supply chain and put under stress African and Middle Eastern food systems, emphasizing their vulnerability and the need to improve their resilience. Climate change represents an even more ominous challenge in this regard, adding pressure on land and water and reducing yield growth. In a globalized world, this issue cannot be relegated to humanitarian assistance or development partnerships. The European Green Deal and agriculture policies affect food systems in the Global South. Conversely, current, and future food crises threaten economic and political stability of African and Middle Eastern countries, and consequently economic interests and geopolitical security of the European continent (food shortage, migrations, collapsed states becoming a haven for terrorist organizations). Visegrad countries (V4) have been affected by the war and the rerouting of Ukrainian grains. Due to the repercussions of the solidarity lanes on their own agricultural production, food resilience in the Southern neighbourhood and Sub-Saharan Africa should become a priority for them. They have the capacity to play a role in the collective European effort in this matter.

Have we catched up with the West? 20 years of Convergence in Wage Levels

Dohnali jsme Západ? 20 let sbližování pohledem mzdové úrovně

Author(s): Silke Maes / Language(s): Czech

Keywords: EU Living standards;

This year, the EU marks the anniversary of the largest wave of enlargement in history, when the Czech Republic joined the Union along with nine other Central and Eastern European countries. One of the main promises associated with enlargement was that the new member states would catch up with Western Europe in living standards. This was expected to happen thanks to entry into the single internal market, which would allow for the full use of the free movement of goods, services, workers and capital. Now, twenty years later, despite very strong growth and convergence, none of the Eastern European countries has reached the European Union average. Wages in particular remain significantly below the EU average, even compared to GDP growth. The failure to fulfil the central promise of EU accession to date is thus leading to disappointment and fuelling discontent and Eurosceptic attitudes.

They melted down our tanks, we are creating the strongest power in the region – militarist narratives serving the purpose of state capturing

They melted down our tanks, we are creating the strongest power in the region – militarist narratives serving the purpose of state capturing

Author(s): Luka Šterić / Language(s): English

Keywords: militarist narratives: armament; authoritarian regime

Defence system capturing is done in various ways. The authorities are using the procurement of armament from different parties to achieve foreign policy goals in order to reduce the external pressure on the authoritarian regime. Insisting on military neutrality and foreign policy balancing, Serbia is trying to keep access to both the Eastern and Western armament markets. Also, through non-transparent contracts, individuals and companies close to the government opulently profit at the expense of the military industry, as well as through exporting weapons often times conducted in contravention of both domestic and international law and norms.

(Absence of) Trust and Security in the Second Year of the Pandemic – Serbian Citizens’ Opinions about the COVID-19 Pandemic

(Absence of) Trust and Security in the Second Year of the Pandemic – Serbian Citizens’ Opinions about the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author(s): Maja Bjeloš,Srđan Hercigonja / Language(s): English

Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; Accountability; Disaster Risk Management; Serbian Security Policy; immunisation;

The public opinion poll on the management of the COVID-19 pandemic, the process of immunisation of the population and the impact of the pandemic on the work of institutions and the status of democracy was conducted during the relatively calm epidemiological period, just before the big wave in late 2021 and early 2022, when Serbia had a record number of registered citizens newly infected with the Coronavirus. At the same time, the survey was conducted in the period when all adult citizens were offered the so-called booster or the third dose of the vaccine against COVID-19. The observed period was marked by the political and security crisis in Kosovo, so the pandemic was not in the focus of public and political discussion. In the meantime, the gradual calming of the situation regarding the pandemic itself, and primarily the reduction of the number of newly infected and dead, created space for the analysis and assessment of the way the pandemic had been managed.