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№55: Out on the Edge Instead of Here in the Middle: The Four Reasons Why Britain Can’t Resolve Its Relations with the EU

Author(s): Roderick Parkes,Julian Rappold / Language(s): English

Europe’s economic crisis has further damaged Britain’s already difficult relationship with the EU. While most Member States seek a deepening of Europe’s political and financial ties, London is trying to recover its scope for independent action, ordering a review of the EU’s competencies and mooting a membership referendum in 2017. The reasons are rooted in Britain’s historical experience of international relations, which persists in the thinking of the main UK-wide parties. In their understanding, Britain’s political trajectory and its geopolitical position are a boon, and not things to be modified through integration with neighbours. More than ever, London views the EU as an obstacle rather than a tool. Awareness of the UK’s specific attitude towards regionalism may offer room for compromise.

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№48: Governance in Norway and Poland: Can Unequal Partners Learn Anything from Each Other?

Author(s): Ole Jacob Sending / Language(s): English

Poland and Norway are unequal partners when it comes to governance and the management of issues such as security, migration and energy. One still ranks relatively low according to good governance indicators, having had to reinvent its whole system of government following the fall of communism; the other ranks high. One has spent two decades adapting to the EU’s rules; the other remains outside that framework but decided to sign an agreement on the European Economic Area that has made it a quasi-member without direct access to decision-making bodies. At the same time, the hierarchy—an element of inequality—hinders the learning process between the countries. Can Poland and Norway learn anything from each other? This paper, which sets out some of the thinking underpinning the GoodGov project, provides some answers. Following a brief review of the literature on policy learning, it identifies “experimentalist governance” as the model best suited to the two countries, before closing with some practical remarks about how such a model might look.

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№29: Human Security: Reactivation of an Idea?

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English

Human Security is a concept in which the general principles of human rights are interpreted at the perspective of a single citizen. Originally associated with security sector reform, Human Security offers a holistic approach to our understanding of security: all relevant actors and instruments should be included in the process of the efficient, effective and non-discriminatory provision of common state and human security within a framework of democratic governance. The importance of Human Security will probably increase in the future as an important category in foreign and security policies, and it will generally exert considerable influence upon the development of international relations.

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№26: Libya and Syria: Responsibility to Protect at a Crossroads

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English

The Arab Spring, especially the developments in Libya and Syria, revealed the persistent problem of a lack of appropriate and legally acceptable measures the international community could use to intervene in specific countries where people die because of violent acts by the authorities there. Although Responsibility to Protect (R2P) is seen as a new idea, it can be regarded as a manifestation of a trend that has already begun to affect the present but will have a major impact in the future. When the intervention in Libya started, it seemed that the importance of R2P would grow and exert increasing influence on international relations. The real significance of the UN response to the Libyan crisis was that for the first time the implementation and representation in practice of the R2P concept became real. However, it is quite clear now that the current Syrian crisis can serve as a catalyst for discussion on the necessary conditions for a military intervention, thus either strengthening the underlying trend of R2P or blocking it for years.

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№10: New Strategy for Afghanistan? Political Reform – First!

Author(s): Piotr Krawczyk / Language(s): English

The manipulated presidential election of August 2009 has provided new rationale for increasingly negative assessments of the situation in Afghanistan. The Afghans’ growing mistrust of the authorities and the administration looms, alongside the insurgents’ activities, as the country’s gravest problem. The sources of the state’s illness include not only the dismal economy and a lack of security, but a dysfunctional political system divorced from the country’s social realities. The system breeds corruption and conflicts and obstructs the discharge of the state’s fundamental functions. It follows that much of Afghanistan’s instability has internal political roots which, unless removed, will render enduring improvement of the country’s situation impossible.

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№2: ISAF Operation in Afghanistan and the Future of NATO – Time for Change

Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English

It is often stated that the mission in Afghanistan cannot be won using only military means. It can surely be lost, however, due to a failure of military performance by NATO and due to unrealistic operation goals. The Alliance currently faces two major challenges. The first has to do with the reluctance of some of the Allies to commit troops to counter-insurgency tasks. Without a major change in the Afghan policies of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Greece, NATO will face a series of ‘blackmail crises’, when countries engaged in the south and east of the country threaten to withdraw their forces unless they are replaced or given additional support. It seems certain that NATO is going to manage successfully its first blackmail crisis, caused by Canada’s justifiable demand for an additional 1,000 troops for Kandahar (it appears that support has been offered by the United States, France and Poland). However, the ability to placate the displeased Allies on an ad hoc basis is limited, and a more fundamental change of policy is necessary.

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China on the Hong Kong Protests: 2 Scenarios

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The radicalisation of the protests in Hong Kong has destabilised its economy and public life. This contradicts Chinese Communist Party (CCP) propaganda of a region that since 1997 has successfully reunited with China. The Chinese authorities have not rejected the use of military force on the streets of Hong Kong but first will try to take control of the situation through the local authorities, who have reduced the freedom of assembly and authorised brutal actions by police. These measures break the resolution in the Sino-British declaration of 1984 and are violations of international law. If the situation in Hong Kong deteriorates further, the EU will be forced to take a more determined position.

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Scenariusze polityki ChRL wobec protestów w Hongkongu

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): Polish

Radykalizacja protestów w Hongkongu destabilizuje tamtejszą gospodarkę i życie publiczne. Przeczy propagandzie Komunistycznej Partii Chin o sukcesie integracji regionu z Chinami. Władze chińskie nie wykluczają wyprowadzenia wojska na ulice Hongkongu, ale w pierwszej kolejności próbują opanować sytuację za pośrednictwem lokalnej władzy. Ogranicza ona prawo do zgromadzeń i autoryzuje brutalne działania policji. Oznacza to łamanie postanowień deklaracji chińsko-brytyjskiej z 1984 r. i stanowi naruszenie prawa międzynarodowego. W przypadku zaostrzenia sytuacji w Hongkongu UE będzie zmuszona zająć bardziej zdecydowane stanowisko niż dotychczas.

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Afghanistan Ahead of the Next Turbulent Presidential Elections

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The U.S. cancellation of peace talks with the Taliban means that the presidential election in Afghanistan planned for 28 September will take place in an environment of an escalating civil war. The most important challenge for the authorities is to ensure the security and credibility of the electoral process. Although the elections carry the risk of deepening the internal political crisis, they can also strengthen the position of the new president in possible government negotiations with the Taliban, which would give the country a chance to launch an intra-Afghan peace process. Western partners can support this approach by confirming their support for the new authorities and intensifying military pressure on the Taliban.

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Afganistan przed wyborami prezydenckimi

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): Polish

Zerwanie przez USA rozmów pokojowych z talibami oznacza, że planowane na 28 września wybory prezydenckie w Afganistanie odbędą się w warunkach eskalacji wojny domowej. Najważniejszym wyzwaniem dla władz jest zapewnienie bezpieczeństwa i wiarygodności procesu wyborczego. Choć wybory niosą ryzyko pogłębienia kryzysu wewnętrznego, mogą też doprowadzić do wzmocnienia pozycji nowego prezydenta w ewentualnych negocjacjach rządu z talibami. Taka sytuacja dawałaby szansę na uruchomienie wewnątrzafgańskiego procesu pokojowego. Zachodni partnerzy mogą wspomóc ten proces, potwierdzając wsparcie dla nowych władz i nasilając presję militarną na talibów.

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Ethiopia: Ethnic Tensions Threaten State Stability

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

A series of political assassinations in June in Ethiopia exacerbated ethnic tensions in a country organised under a model of ethnic federalism. The growth of ethnic nationalism has become a major challenge for reformist Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Continuation of the current trend risks halting the democratisation of the public sphere, economic integration of the Horn of Africa, and a failure of EU policies towards the region.

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Etiopia – napięcia etniczne zagrożeniem dla państwa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): Polish

Seria zamachów politycznych w Etiopii 22 czerwca br. unaoczniła rosnące napięcia w państwie zbudowanym według modelu federalizmu etnicznego. Nacjonalizmy stają się głównym wyzwaniem dla jedności państwa i reformatorskiego premiera Abyi Ahmeda. Ich dalszy wzrost grozi wstrzymaniem procesu demokratyzacji państwa i integracji gospodarczej Rogu Afryki oraz niepowodzeniem polityki UE w regionie.

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Settlement Annexation on the West Bank: Legal and Political Context

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

The issue of Jewish settlements in the West Bank remains one of the key elements of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The political situation in Israel and favourable attitude of the U.S. administration increase the likelihood that Israel might annex settlements. Illegal under international law, this action would have a destructive effect on the peace process and would force a revision of EU-Israel relations.

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Aneksja osiedli na Zachodnim Brzegu: kontekst prawny i polityczny

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): Polish

Kwestia osiedli żydowskich na Zachodnim Brzegu pozostaje jednym z kluczowych elementów konfliktu izraelsko-palestyńskiego. Obecne uwarunkowania polityczne w Izraelu i sprzyjająca postawa administracji USA zwiększają prawdopodobieństwo aneksji tych osiedli przez Izrael. Taki krok, nielegalny z punktu widzenia prawa międzynarodowego, miałby destrukcyjny wpływ na proces pokojowy i wymusiłby rewizję relacji UE–Izrael.

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Japan’s Foreign Policy in the Context of the Rivalry Between the U.S. and China

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English

Victory for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito coalition in the complementary elections to the upper house of the Japanese parliament will not bring about a significant change in Japan’s foreign policy. Neither will it allow constitutional reform, postulated by prime minister Shinzō Abe, for which he lacks the required majority. Amending the constitution would create new opportunities for military cooperation between the U.S. and Japan, but would have a negative effect on Japanese relations with China. Nevertheless, it is to be expected that Japan will be more active in its economic and security policies towards China and the United States, while the rivalry between these countries will become a greater challenge for the Japanese government.

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Polityka zagraniczna Japonii w kontekście rywalizacji Stanów Zjednoczonych z Chinami

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): Polish

Zwycięstwo koalicji Partii Liberalno-Demokratycznej i Komeito w uzupełniających wyborach do izby wyższej japońskiego parlamentu nie przyniesie istotnej zmiany w polityce zagranicznej Japonii. Nie pozwoli też na postulowaną przez Abe Shinzo reformę ustawy zasadniczej, dla której brakuje większości konstytucyjnej. Zmieniona konstytucja stworzyłaby dla Japonii nowe możliwości współpracy wojskowej z USA i mogłaby pogorszyć relacje z Chinami. Mimo to można oczekiwać aktywniejszej polityki gospodarczej i bezpieczeństwa Japonii wobec Chin i USA. Rywalizacja tych państw staje się dla Japonii głównym wyzwaniem.

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The Centre-Right Returns to Power in Greece

Author(s): Maciej Pawłowski,Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Greece’s centre-right New Democracy (ND) party took power after the parliamentary elections on 7 July. It advocates a change of economic strategy based on cutting taxes and eliminating red tape. The main challenge will be to persuade the European Commission (EC) and eurozone members that its approach will not endanger the Greek public debt-reduction programme. The new government will also need the EU’s support in the country’s conflict with Turkey over the extraction of hydrocarbons off the coast of Cyprus.

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General Elections in India: Narendra Modi Set for a Second Term

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The just-concluded parliamentary elections in India will most probably be won by the Indian People's Party (Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP) of incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Despite growing unemployment and a crisis in agriculture, for most voters, Modi remains a guarantee of economic growth and active foreign policy. India is set to have a stable majority government and continue modernisation. Irrespective of the vote, no major changes in the country’s foreign policy are expected.

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Wybory w Indiach: nowy mandat dla Modiego

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): Polish

Wybory parlamentarne w Indiach wygra najprawdopodobniej Indyjska Partia Ludowa (BJP) urzędującego premiera Narendry Modiego. Mimo rosnącego bezrobocia i kryzysu w rolnictwie dla większości wyborców Modi pozostaje gwarancją wzrostu gospodarczego i aktywnej polityki zagranicznej. Utworzenie większościowego rządu przez BJP będzie oznaczało kontynuację reform gospodarczych i stabilność polityczną. Niezależnie od wyniku głosowania nie należy spodziewać się istotnych zmian w indyjskiej polityce zagranicznej.

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The Influence of the Domestic Situation on Russia’s Foreign Policy

Author(s): Jakub Benedyczak / Language(s): English

The increasing dissatisfaction of the Russians due to the deteriorating socio-economic situation in their country has resulted in declining support for President Vladimir Putin and the government of Dmitry Medvedev. To strengthen their position, the authorities may be more inclined towards confrontational foreign policy, which corresponds to the great-power ambitions of Russian society. If so, the EU might expect more intensive actions aimed at weakening its unity, and for Poland specifically (indicated in the polls of the Russian public as one of their country’s greatest enemies) there could be a continuation of the campaign that disavows its “anti-Russian” foreign and historical policy.

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