"Błąd krymski" jako efekt myślenia grupowego? Polska wobec aneksji Krymu w 2014 roku

Author(s): Agnieszka Orzelska-Staczek / Language(s): Polish / Issue: 39/2015

The ease with which Russia managed to surprise the political elites of the West with the events of early 2014 is dumbfounding. On the eve of the annexation of the Crimea, no one in the public space in Poland warned against the upcoming turn in the policies of Moscow. Representatives of the highest Polish authorities responsible for the security and foreign policy were clearly surprised with the developments. Undoubtedly, the “Crimean error” indicates that information that had been flowing from Russia for a long time was ignored as it did not fit into the policy adopted by the Polish authorities. From today's perspective, multiple signals can be indicated about the upcoming profound changes in the immediate environment of Polish security.When examining why the Polish authorities did not notice the upcoming shift in the politics of Russia, we should take into account the group thinking syndrome, described by Irving Janis. In this approach, group members try to minimize conflict and reach a consensus decision without critical evaluation of alternative viewpoints. This term has gained popularity in social psychology, but has also provided important research tools for the analysis of foreign policy, treated as a separate area in the context of international relations.

"Bleiburg" and the British Treatment of Croatian Collaborators 1945-48

Author(s): Bernd Robionek / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 0

This article highlights ways in which British military and political personnel acted towards Croatian refugees fleeing the Communist takeover in the final stages of World War II and thereafter. Although events relating to the surrender o f various pro-German and anti-Communist forces at Bleiburg, a town in south Austria near the border with Yugoslavia, and the following quarrel over "war criminals" from Yugoslavia is a complex affair, this contribution examines sources shedding light on British perspectives on the Croatian part, notwithstanding that the developments and problems treated here also affected Serbian, Slovenian and (ethnic) German nationals. As a result of this study, the changes in the intentions of the decision makers in London as well as the principal-agent problem become transparent.

"Depoi špijuna i terorista". Saveznički logori za "raseljene osobe" u Italiji, Austriji i Njemačkoj

Author(s): Marica Karakas Obradov / Language(s): Croatian / Publication Year: 0

Immediately after the end of World War II, Western Allies organized refugee camps in their occupation zones in Austria, Italy and Germany which existed until early 1950s. Foreign citizens, such as forced laborers and prisoners of concentration camps, who had been found mostly in Germany and Austria after the collapse of the German Reich, were placed in those camps, as well as military and civilian post-hostilities refugees fleeing from the Red Army and partisan-communist forces from Eastern, Central and Southeastern Europe. A great number of persons were extradited to their countries of origin on charges of war crimes. Among them were many Croats, primarily members of the Croatian armed forces and the Ustasha movement. The remaining refugees are displaced around the world especially in countries of South and North America and in Australia.

"Naš odnos do Italijanov naj bo miren in dostojen, toda nič več". Nekateri vidiki razpetosti med nacionalnim in internacionalnim med slovenskimi komunisti na Primorskem

Author(s): Bojan Godeša / Language(s): Slovenian / Issue: 1/2000

The paper deals with the activities of the Slovene communists in Primorska during the Second World War, where the Communist Party of Slovenia often faced the dilemma of how to reconcile the national interests of its struggle with international ones. The most burning issues for the Slovene communists concerned their relations with the Italian population, the status of Trieste and their cooperation with the Communist Party of Italy in Primorska.

"Riževi standard proti mesnemu standardu" (Elementi stereotipa o japonskem gospodarstvu pri Slovencih pred drugo svetovno vojno)

Author(s): Žarko Lazarevic / Language(s): Slovenian / Issue: 2/2000

The stereotype image of the Japanese economy created by the Slovenian press before the Second World War was not based on its own experience, but was assumed from the western European press. This is understandable, given the very small trade exchange between the two countries at the time. This stereotype included elements, such as social and foreign-exchange dumping, a patriarchal system, a better organised and more efficient economy, and unfair competition.

"Soft Power" in the Service of Foreign Policy Strategy of the Russian Federation

Author(s): Jelica Kurjak / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 0

"The Enlargement of the EU to Balkans" – Policy Reports that shaped the policies and debate on European integration of Balkans

Author(s): Specified No Author / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2008

Today, western Balkans states are a long way from where they were at the beginning of the decade. The Stabilization and Association process, which has just started in 2000, is almost completed as all the states have negotiated and signed the Stabilization and Association Agreements with the EU, the EU is negotiating visa liberalization agreements and all states are entitled to the new pre-accession financial assistance IPA, designed to address the strategic needs of the region. This progress, apart from the persistent efforts of the national governments and the EU administration, is also partly due to the visionary policy reports and recommendations of people and organizations working on the Balkans. We are convinced that their commitment to the region and the ability to look beyond the limitations of the immediate political context for lasting solutions makes them an irreplaceable item on every reading-list of both those who wish to study the Balkan region and those who aim to produce similar such reports addressing the present dilemmas and challenges for the western Balkan states. “The Enlargement of the EU to Balkans” is a compilation of four reports on the Balkans published since 2000. They all concern the Balkan region and its prospects for the future – away from violent legacies towards peace, stability and European integration. As such, they are a valuable source for all those interested in and studying the recent political developments in this region, for these reports give an overview of the challenges that Balkans states faced on the start of their journey to European integration. We hope this collection of reports will become part of the curricula of schools and departments where Balkan politics, history and EU integration are taught. From the multitude of reports, books and other works written on the Balkans, the reports that follow were not chosen accidentally. Rather, we aimed to include the most influential reports, those which had the greatest impact on the EU and international community’s approach towards the Balkans, those with the most valuable recommendations concerning the features of EU’s policy towards the Balkans. The results of in-depth field research and analysis of diplomatic relations in the region, these reports provided the most credible assistance to the European and other policy-makers when faced with the dilemma ‘how to deal with postconflict post-Milosevic Balkans?’ By publishing their reports again, we also like to pay tribute to those people and organizations that made their most for Balkans to be found in EU integration map.

"Zdravo je biti Amerikanac": Rana hrvatska imigracija u SAD, prakse na otoku Ellis i stvaranje hrvatske dijaspore

Author(s): Tanja Bukovcan / Language(s): Croatian / Issue: 29/2006

From 1892 to 1954 more than 12 million immigrants entered the United States through its famous gateway, Ellis Island. They were processed through immigration procedure and majority of them, from that period, were allowed to enter the US and become the citizens of their choice. Poverty, scarcity and hard field labour forced many Croats to seek better life in America. Almost four millions of them went through the Ellis Island in the period from 1880 to 1930. Very young, of average age not more than 22, most of them single males, together with all other steerage passengers, underwent the quick medical examinations, "six seconds physicals" through which they were checked for signs of infectious diseases, insanity, "feeblemindedness" of physical defects. To avoid the trap of being too easily critical 100 years after Ellis Island happenings, it has to be said that they were a practical solution to immigration admission. The number of people entering the US through Ellis Island could reach 5000 up to 11000 people per day during America's peak immigration years from 1890-1924. However, Ellis Island practices legitimatized and deepened the division between the ethnically desirable (North and Western Europe immigrants) and less desirable (South-Eastern Europe and Asia). Furthermore, they provided a mass demonstration of power and political practices, which used health as an instrument of separation between those who were eligible to become the members of a politically stable, healthy labour force, and those who were not. This paper tries to examine in what way did such "segregatory" practices, which already at the entrance to the New World, defined Croats and other immigrants as possibly unhealthy, insane or inapt, influence the formation of Croatian Diaspora in North America as a culturally distinct ethnic group. It also raises the question as to how will the newly emerging medical borders affect notions of ethnicity and the ways in which dispersed/displaced peoples construct their identities in the time of "global ethnoscapes" (Appadurai) The fact that this first "legalized" segregation on the basis of a six-second medical examination was going on under the shadow of the Statue of Liberty, shows to what extent it was assumed as "scientifically" reasonable and politically correct, and explains the existence of its current practices of creating medical borders. Who remains on the other side of the medical border? The ethnical and cultural "Others", or, just "the ill"?

"Територіальне питання" у відносинах між Японією і Росією та спроба його вирішення в 50-60-х роках ХХ ст.

Author(s): Sergiy V. Reznichenko / Language(s): Ukrainian / Issue: 2/2010

Author, drawing on scientific researches of domestic and oversea historians, materials of press, exposes essence problems of "norths territories", process of its origin and position of the USA in its decision.

# V4 2015: neľahké hľadanie odpovedí na európske výzvy

Author(s): Tomáš Strážay / Language(s): Slovak / Publication Year: 0

Vyšehradská skupina, tak ako napokon celá Európska únia, čelila aj v roku 2015 výzvam prichádzajúcim z vonkajšieho prostredia a v menšom meradle tiež takým, ktoré súviseli s jeho vnútorným fungovaním. Napriek pokračujúcemu rusko ukrajinskému konfliktu sa dominantnou témou vo vyšehradskom i európskom (nielen zahraničnopolitickom diskurze) stala migračná a utečenecká kríza. Postoj k nej ovplyvňoval tak vnútornú dynamiku Vyšehradu, ako aj jeho vnímanie v rámci EÚ. Vyšehradské krajiny čelili zhoršenej reputácii v očiach niektorých členských krajín Únie, ktoré kritizovali ich nesolidárny postoj v otázke redistribučných kvót. Prirodzene, značná časť vyšehradskej agendy sa niesla v znamení kontinuity, čo sa týka slovenského aj českého predsedníctva. Významnými oblasťami spolupráce tak boli naďalej napríklad energetika či bezpečnosť a obrana. Spolupráca s krajinami východného susedstva a západného Balkánu tvorili piliere formátu V4 plus, ktorý sa rozšíril o ďalších partnerov. Jedným z významných zadaní pre obe predsedníctva bolo vyvažovať spoluprácu s nevyšehradskými krajinami s vnútornou súdržnosťou V4. Potvrdilo sa, že vyšehradská spolupráca zostáva imúnna voči vnútropolitickému vývoju v jednotlivých krajinách. Hoci májové prezidentské i októbrové parlamentné voľby v Poľsku znamenali diametrálnu zmenu v oblasti poľskej vnútornej politiky, na vzťahoch v rámci V4 sa to neprejavilo.

#10 Smuggling in Southeast Europe. The Yugoslav Wars and the Development of Regional Criminal Networks in the Balkans

Author(s): Marko Hajdinjak / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2002

Smuggling in Southeast Europe analyzes and reviews the connection between the conflicts in the former Yugoslavia and the growth of the trans-border crime in the region, and also looks at the related issue of corruption. The paper highlights the decisive impact the Yugoslav wars had on the development of the regional criminal networks, which were often set up and maintained not only with the knowledge, but even with active participation of the highest state officials. The research also represents a contribution to the study of conflicts in the Western Balkans. The majority of existing interpretations of causes, course and consequences of the Yugoslav wars try to provide the answers through ethno-political explanations. They unjustly ignore the importance that interweaving of interests of political elites, the organized crime groups, which appeared in this period, and the "mediating class" of corrupt state officials had in this process. The paper is divided in three parts: • An analysis of the causes and course of emergence of Balkan smuggling channels in the context of Yugoslav wars and international sanctions; • A review of the recent developments in trans-border crime in Southeast Europe; • An overview of prevention efforts, undertaken both by the regional governments and the international community’ The first part analyzes the emergence of officially sanctioned "state-building" smuggling in those parts of the former Yugoslavia, which were involved in the war. The intermediary role of Albania, Bulgaria, Macedonia and Romania is also discussed. In these four countries, smuggling networks were not developed under open patronage of the governments, but the role of high-positioned politicians was nevertheless extremely important. The second part traces the evolution of the initial semi-official smuggling channels and their transformation into "classical" criminal networks. The so-called "suitcase trade," cigarette smuggling, smuggling of narcotics, and the trafficking in human beings are discussed in more detail.

#35 Situational Assessment of Extremist Trends

Author(s): Rositsa Dzhekova,Ludek Moravec,Pavlína Bláhová,Jan Ludvík,Libor Stejskal,Dia Anagnostou,Dimitris Skleparis,Nadya Stoynova / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

Violent extremism is one of the major challenges Europe is currently facing. The threat is both external as well as internal as indicated by the rise in home-grown Islamist terrorists, as well as of nationalistic and anti-immigrant movements and far-right aggression. An accurate picture of the spread, nature and trends in the extremist and terrorist activity and actors is paramount to formulating strategic policy approaches and effectively allocating available resources. This publication provides a methodological framework for the establishment of a viable mechanism for monitoring and assessment of the state and developments over time in extremist acts and actors on the national level. The situational assessment is an instrument for systematic collection and analysis of statistical data, open source data and intelligence information pertaining to extremist actors and activities, for the purposes of developing regular situational reports of the spread, nature and trends in extremism and violent radicalisms. Following the application of the situational assessment tool, the publication presents main findings on extremist trends and monitoring capacities in three countries from Central and Southeast Europe: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Greece.

#someonetellcnn: The Agonistic Relationship between South and North Media Memories

Author(s): David Katiambo / Language(s): English / Issue: 10/2017

The international media stand accused for creating a negative retrospective memory about Africa through misreporting. Social media is providing an alternative channel to air counternarratives. Through Discourse Theoretical Analysis this paper uses the agonistic democracy theory to explain how Twitter is enabling Kenyans to create an optimistic prospective memory as a counter narrative to Western media’s negative retrospective memory about Africa. Mouffe’s concept of “agonism” will be utilized to conceptualize how uncivil attacks are enabling Kenyans to fend off international media misreporting. The paper unpacks how Kenyans on Twitter (KOT) used incivility against CNN to to create a national agonistic memory ahead of the 2015 Africa visit by President Obama. The paper analyses incivility at #SomeonetellCNN as a form of collective remembrance, meaning not only remembering what CNN had already said, the retrospective memory, but also remembering what CNN was expected to do, the prospective memory.

(001) NEW WORLD ORDER: THE BALANCE OF SOFT POWER AND THE RISE OF HERBIVOROUS POWERS

Author(s): Ivan Krastev,Mark Leonard / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2007

The largest survey of public opinion in the world shows support for a more multipolar world and a greater role for ‘herbivorous powers’ – countries not widely perceived as military superpowers. There is mistrust of the Cold War powers as well as Islamist-inspired Iranian autocracy. More people want to see a decline rather than an increase in the power of Russia (29% decline, 23% increase), of China (32% decline, 24% increase), of the United States (37% decline, 26% increase), and of Iran (39% decline, 14% increase). On the other hand, there is strong support for an increase in the power of fast-developing powers such as South Africa, India and Brazil. The European Union is the most popular great power. Uniquely among great powers, more people across all continents want to see its power increase than decrease. This demand for more European power extends to many former European colonies. Whilst American soft power has declined, the rise of China has led to the resurgence in support for American power in Asia. Increasing Russian influence in Eastern Europe is paralleled by a demand for a greater American role. Outside Europe, ‘the West’ is still seen to some extent as a single actor: countries suspicious of American power tend also to be against EU power.

(002) A POWER AUDIT OF EU-RUSSIA RELATIONS

Author(s): Mark Leonard,Nicu Popescu / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2007

In this project, we have tried to implement some practices which will guide our future activities as the ECFR takes its work into new policy areas. First, we have tried to look at several dimensions of European power. We have explored how Moscow sees the EU and uses its power to influence it; how each member state relates to Russia; as well as the links between Moscow and EU institutions. This report draws on data gathered by a team of researchers from all 27 EU member states. Each conducted a survey of their country’s economic, political and military relations with Russia. Secondly, we have tried to avoid the euphemistic phrases and diplomatic practices that cloak tensions within the EU and between the EU and third countries. In order to promote a common European approach, we have illustrated some of the areas where the policies of individual member states have undercut common European objectives. The goal is not to stigmatise particular countries. Future reports on European foreign policy issues will put the spotlight on the policies of other states. Thirdly, we have done our best to understand the issues from the perspective of policymakers. A senior EU official complained to one of the authors about the propensity of outside observers to simplify complex issues and to imply that the only thing standing in the way of a successful EU foreign policy is the stupidity of officials. We have tried to heed this plea and have not offered any easy, ready-made solutions. We are grateful to the many officials who have provided us with useful guidance at every step of the research process, in particular those who took part in a round-table discussion of the interim findings, attended by officials from all EU institutions and a majority of EU member states.

(003) POLAND’S SECOND RETURN TO EUROPE?

Author(s): Pawel Swieboda / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2007

Donald Tusk, the new Polish Prime Minister, wants to bring Poland back to the heart of Europe, rebuilding ties with Germany and France to create a ‘Weimar Triangle’, lessening tensions with Russia, and trying to make the country a genuine player in European foreign policy. The new Government will try to rebalance ist relationship with the United States, slowing down the move towards missile defence and withdrawing its troops from Iraq. Although there will be a change of style on contentious issues like Russia, the new government will still be an ‘assertive partner’ opting out of the Charter of Fundamental Rights; unlikely to join the euro; and likely to put up a fi ght against reform of the EU budget.Co-habitation with President Lech Kaczyński will create tensions but the government has the constitutional powers and the moral clout to set the agenda.

(004) AFGHANISTAN: EUROPE’S FORGOTTEN WAR

Author(s): Daniel Korski / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2008

The international community has a second chance in Afghanistan. The appointment of a new UN special envoy and the upcoming NATO summit in Bucharest offer a chance for the coalition partners to adopt a new strategy and avert disaster. The problems are well known. The rule of Hamid Karzai’s government extends only weakly outside of Kabul. The Taliban insurgency will continue to grow stronger as winter ends. Despite the billions of euros spent, most ordinary Afghans have yet to see the benefits in terms of security, access to justice and delivery of basic services. All these difficulties have been exacerbated by European and American policy disagreements. In their key criticisms of each other Europeans and Americans each have a valid point. While Americans tend to treat a political problem as a military one, Europeans have lagged behind the US in terms of financial and military commitments, and have even failed to co-ordinate their own activities. In the run-up to Bucharest there will be an opportunity for both partners to strike a new ‘grand bargain’ where Europeans agree to increase their investment in exchange for a change in American strategy. A new common approach should be based around a strategy for political inclusion, increased resources, and stronger international leadership. This new strategy should be cemented in a new Bonn-type conference, which would bring together heads of states from the US, UN, EU and all of Afghanistan’s regional partners.

(007) CAN THE EU WIN THE PEACE IN GEORGIA?

Author(s): Nicu Popescu,Mark Leonard,Andrew Wilson / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2008

The EU has established itself as the main diplomatic broker in the conflict between Russia and Georgia. It should use this position to help forge a positive peace from a war which threatens the foundations of the European security order. Russia has used its conflict with Georgia to display its military power, reclaim a sphere of influence and frighten its neighbours. Rather than looking for punitive measures, the EU should respond to Russia’s demonstration of force with much stronger engagement for democracy, prosperity and security in the broader region - keeping tough measures towards Moscow on the table if Russia resists.This war was caused in part by the dysfunctionality of the previous ‘peace-keeping’ process in Georgia. The EU must work hard towards ensuring that any new arrangements are not unilateral and do not merely legitimate Russia’s de facto control. The EU should promote an international peace-keeping mission and offer to deploy a civilian reconstruction mission dealing with development, building confidence and security between both sides, and tackling wider political issues. It should also encourage the United Nations to set up a commission of enquiry to help establish the truth on the causes and conduct of the war.Instead of focusing on short-term sanctions against Russia, the EU should move quickly to raise its profile in the Eastern Neighbourhood and to help stabilise other conflict regions - paying attention both to old ‘frozen’ conflicts and potential new flashpoints. The EU should also make a special commitment to Ukraine: It should recognise its right to EU membership in the future, agree to a more liberal visa regime, offer a solidarity clause backing Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and move to integrate Ukraine into the EU’s energy market.

(009) BEYOND DEPENDENCE: HOW TO DEAL WITH RUSSIAN GAS

Author(s): Pierre Noël / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2008

The gas relationship with Russia has become an extremely contentious issue among EU Member States. It is a major reason for the EU’s failure to develop the common policy approach towards Moscow it so badly needs. Yet the relationship is often misunderstood. Russia is the largest external gas supplier to the EU, but it is far from a monopoly provider. Since 1980, Europe’s diversification of its gas supply has seen Russia’s share of EU gas imports roughly halve, from 80% to 40%. Russian gas represents just 6.5% of the EU primary energy supply, a figure that has remained essentially unchanged over 20 years. And contrary to widely held belief, Russian gas exports to Europe are unlikely to increase significantly in the foreseeable future. So calls for Europe to diversify its energy supply even further miss the point. The problem is divisiveness, not dependence. Russian gas is divisive because Europe’s gas market is dysfunctional and segmented. Most of the EU’s imports of Russian gas go to a few countries in western Europe, where supply is diversified, while several Member States in central and eastern Europe consume relatively little Russian gas but have no other external suppliers. Only the emergence of a single competitive European gas market can create real solidarity between consumers and ‘Europeanise’ the current large bilateral contracts between European importers and Gazprom.To address the specific concerns of central and eastern European Member States, the EU should build on the 2004 directive on security of supply in natural gas, and help these Member States devise and implement national action plans for gas security.

(010) RE-WIRING THE US-EU RELATIONSHIP

Author(s): Daniel Korski,Ulrike Guerot,Mark Leonard / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2008

The election of Barack Obama has seriously narrowed the policy differences between Europe and the US. While significant disagreements remain on ambition, priority and approach, both sides now agree to a large degree on the major challenges facing them. Moreover, the President-elect is likely to be America’s first “post-Special Relationship” leader, eager to see Britain play a role in making Europe work rather than to build an exclusive US-UK bilateral bond.