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China-South Korea Relations: An Attempt to Break the Deadlock

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

The South Korean president’s visit to China (13–16 December) sprung from a mutual willingness to improve bilateral relations. China opposes the deployment of the U.S. THAAD missile-defence system, an issue that remains a sticking point in Sino-South Korea ties. Their respective North Korea policy also has contributed to the deteriorating bilateral relations. The inability to resolve that issue may lead to diplomatic engagement of countries outside the region, including Poland, to try to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

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№165: Nord Stream 2: Inconvenient Questions

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Marcin Terlikowski,Bartosz Wiśniewski,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

As the European Union faces a range of pressing challenges, there is one issue that merits special attention: The Russian gas pipeline running on the Baltic Sea seabed. Although it is often portrayed as “purely commercial”, the purpose of Nord Stream 2 is anything but that. It is intended to rewrite the politics of natural gas supply to Europe for years to come and to solidify Russia’s position on the EU gas market. Beyond economic and market considerations, a number of issues leave no doubt that the “blue fuel”, rather than becoming an increasingly tradable commodity, remains one of Russia’s principal instruments of pressure and coercion, both political and economic.

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№166: How Russian Violations of the 1997 Founding Act Influence NATO-Russia Relations

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Artur Kacprzyk,Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

The NATO-Russia Founding Act adopted in 1997 reflected the consensus within the Alliance that new security architecture in Europe should be based on three pillars: enlargement of transformed NATO, European integration and partnership with Russia. Self-limitation on the stationing and deployment of troops in the territories of new NATO members was conditioned upon Russia’s observance of the rule-based order. After the annexation of Crimea, the Allies decided to respect the spirit of the Founding Act to limit the risk of escalation and defend the security system Russia is interested in derailing. The Allies, however, should adopt a less dogmatic approach to NRFA, which would offer additional flexibility in strengthening NATO’s cohesion and influencing Russian calculations.

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№170: High Representative Federica Mogherini: Her Role and Performance in the EU Neighbourhood

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Federica Mogherini, the EU’s top diplomat, has strengthened coordination over EU external affairs but has not managed to make a significant impact in Europe’s closest neighbourhood. She succeeded in the speedy launch of the EU naval operation in the Mediterranean and the development of partnerships with several Sub-Saharan countries concerning migration, but in the case of the conflicts in Libya and Syria, the EU remained dependent on UN-led mediation. In relations with the eastern neighbourhood, Mogherini was side-lined by the Member States, which did not perceive her as an honest broker on Russian affairs. The next High Representative should make improvements in these areas while also following Mogherini’s path of close cooperation with the European Commission and other stakeholders.

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№172: Future of Europe: No Common Vision on the Horizon

Author(s): Marta Makowska,Melchior Szczepanik,Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

The debate about the future of Europe, reinvigorated by Brexit, has revealed important divergences between the Member States. France has largely set the agenda of the debate but failed to mobilise decisive support for most of its proposals. Despite some joint Franco-German initiatives, there is also clearly significant disagreement within the tandem. It will be difficult to find compromise on the most controversial reforms, such as those related to the eurozone and migration policy. Muddling through will probably remain the dominant feature of the integration process.

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№177: NATO Deterrence and Arms Control Policy in a World without the INF Treaty

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk,Łukasz Kulesa,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

To maintain effective deterrence and internal cohesion in a post-INF Treaty world, especially in the face of the growing Russian missile threat to Europe, NATO needs to act in two areas. To enhance its military posture, the Alliance ought to quickly mobilise available defensive and offensive capabilities, plan and exercise their use, and be ready to further adjust its posture in the future. This includes studying the military rationale to deploy conventionally armed ground-launched intermediate-range missiles. To adapt its arms-control policy, NATO members should identify Russia’s most destabilising missile systems, both existing and prospective, and propose arms-control initiatives aimed at limiting them. Although the likelihood of achieving new agreements with Russia is currently low, a more proactive NATO arms-control position could help shape the discussion in the longer term and counter Russian efforts to divide the Alliance.

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№85: Trends in Force Posture in Europe

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec,Anna Maria Dyner,Artur Kacprzyk,Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Two opposite trends in force posture in Europe became evident in the last decade. Out of the six biggest military spenders among the OSCE participating States, four—France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom—have been on a downward trend in regard to their force posture: reducing the number of personnel, downscaling high-end capabilities and decreasing force readiness; the same is true for the U.S. military presence in Europe. The outlier was Russia. While the Russian armed forces were shrinking and disposing of large quantities of legacy equipment, the military capabilities required for high-intensity conventional operations were revamped, force readiness improved, and scenarios involving a large-scale conflict in the OSCE area practiced.

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№82: Universal Utopia: Weighing the Reasons for the Appeal of the Islamic State

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Jihadism may be exclusively associated with the Muslim culture as a term and concept, but failing to see its universal, cross-cultural dimension impairs domestic and international policy considerations. This radical utopia serves as a global magnet for anti-systemism rather than just attracting religious locals in the Middle East. European countries need to structure their policy toward ISIS carefully, so that they do not become the frontline soldiers in the fight against this utopia and, in doing so, tie the rope around their necks at home. This is especially true as, globally and in the long term, the number of potential supporters for ISIS is likely to grow.

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№68: Longing for a Boom: Prospects for Economic Development in Afghanistan

Author(s): Beata Górka-Winter / Language(s): English

The unrelenting military operations carried out in Afghanistan since the end of the 1970s brought about unprecedented devastation of the existing infrastructure and determined the abject economic condition of this state. Currently, the economic situation is improving, although Afghanistan is still facing a series of structural and other barriers (pervasive corruption, weak economic governance, and a shadow opium economy) to its growth, while reconstruction is still slowed down by continuing military conflict in the country. In the short-term perspective, Afghanistan will not be able to develop without serious economic assistance from donors. However, it may improve its economic standing in the longterm by supporting the development of traditional agricultural economy and creating conditions for local and foreign investors, which may provide capital and necessary know-how for exploring its vast mineral potential.

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№58: China’s Evolving Stance on Afghanistan: Towards More Robust Diplomacy with “Chinese Characteristics”

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English

On the eve of the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan, China is modifying its so-far lukewarm policy towards this country. The potential for a security vacuum after 2014 has raised China’s concerns about the situation in Afghanistan and its effects on the region, including possible terrorist attacks, an influx of militants, inter-ethnic fights, cross-border crime and more, all of which may have a negative impact on China’s security and domestic stability. These possible threats have forced the PRC to adopt a more proactive approach towards Afghanistan. The scope of tools is wide, and include the appointment of China’s first special envoy to Afghanistan, and a rising level of Chinese engagement in various international mechanisms focused on regional security. It creates a chance for the EU, to cooperate with Beijing on security issues.

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№56: NATO Narrows Military Gap on Its Eastern Flank

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

The decisions taken during the NATO summit in Wales will partially fill the security gaps on NATO’s eastern flank. The alliance will be better prepared for a number of traditional and asymmetric threats, emanating from Russia, against its members. However, the alliance has no answer for the strategic change caused by annexation of Crimea and possible dismemberment of the rest of Ukraine. NATO will also remain vulnerable to attempts to undermine its credibility—a path Russia may embark upon in pursuit of its broader strategic goals.

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№55: Out on the Edge Instead of Here in the Middle: The Four Reasons Why Britain Can’t Resolve Its Relations with the EU

Author(s): Roderick Parkes,Julian Rappold / Language(s): English

Europe’s economic crisis has further damaged Britain’s already difficult relationship with the EU. While most Member States seek a deepening of Europe’s political and financial ties, London is trying to recover its scope for independent action, ordering a review of the EU’s competencies and mooting a membership referendum in 2017. The reasons are rooted in Britain’s historical experience of international relations, which persists in the thinking of the main UK-wide parties. In their understanding, Britain’s political trajectory and its geopolitical position are a boon, and not things to be modified through integration with neighbours. More than ever, London views the EU as an obstacle rather than a tool. Awareness of the UK’s specific attitude towards regionalism may offer room for compromise.

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№48: Governance in Norway and Poland: Can Unequal Partners Learn Anything from Each Other?

Author(s): Ole Jacob Sending / Language(s): English

Poland and Norway are unequal partners when it comes to governance and the management of issues such as security, migration and energy. One still ranks relatively low according to good governance indicators, having had to reinvent its whole system of government following the fall of communism; the other ranks high. One has spent two decades adapting to the EU’s rules; the other remains outside that framework but decided to sign an agreement on the European Economic Area that has made it a quasi-member without direct access to decision-making bodies. At the same time, the hierarchy—an element of inequality—hinders the learning process between the countries. Can Poland and Norway learn anything from each other? This paper, which sets out some of the thinking underpinning the GoodGov project, provides some answers. Following a brief review of the literature on policy learning, it identifies “experimentalist governance” as the model best suited to the two countries, before closing with some practical remarks about how such a model might look.

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№47: Brazil: A Giant Waking Up on the Inside

Author(s): Kinga Brudzińska / Language(s): English

The Football World Cup may be an event for the global audience to celebrate, but not all Brazilians find it that entertaining. The mass protests demonstrating society’s dissatisfaction that began last year under the slogan “The Giant Woke Up” and Brazil’s economic slowdown persist. Despite the country’s outstanding economic prosperity and social progress in the recent years, Brazil has not yet been able to raise its standing on the international stage. Moreover, Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff’s limited interest in foreign policy, and her centralising leadership, especially ahead of the October presidential election, have turned Brazil into a far more hesitant and less global player than was the case under her two predecessors.

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№42: Sixty Years of Poland–India Relations: Towards a Genuine Partnership?

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Relations between Poland and India are 60 years old, and have been traditionally described as “close and cordial.” Their history can be broadly divided into two periods—one between 1954 and 1989, and the second after 1989. Whereas the first is sometimes regarded as a golden age in Polish–Indian ties, the latter is seen more as a time of mutual disengagement and negligence. However, during the last a few years, we have observed the beginning of a third era, with renewed efforts to revive stronger cooperation. Trade is again on a clear upward trend, and high-level meetings take place more often. In fact, for the first time, both countries are fully independent and strong enough to create a robust and genuine partnership.

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№32: The Unexploited Potential of Poland’s Cooperation with Taiwan

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English

Taiwan, with its economy based on high technology and innovation and home to global IT companies which are among the world’s largest electronics manufacturers, should be an attractive economic partner for Poland. But the distance, limited channels of communication, lack of knowledge of each other, differences in economic development, and market access barriers in Taiwan make bilateral cooperation occasional and not intensive. A recent improvement in cooperation as a result of Taiwan’s decision to open its market to Polish pork and prospects for signing an avoidance-of-double-taxation agreement should be used as a good basis for deepening bilateral cooperation. What is more, better Cross-Strait relations create a chance for Poland to improve its economic presence in mainland China through closer cooperation with Taiwanese companies.

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№29: Human Security: Reactivation of an Idea?

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English

Human Security is a concept in which the general principles of human rights are interpreted at the perspective of a single citizen. Originally associated with security sector reform, Human Security offers a holistic approach to our understanding of security: all relevant actors and instruments should be included in the process of the efficient, effective and non-discriminatory provision of common state and human security within a framework of democratic governance. The importance of Human Security will probably increase in the future as an important category in foreign and security policies, and it will generally exert considerable influence upon the development of international relations.

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№27: The Perseverance of the Crisis in Mali

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

After yet another Tuareg rebellion, followed by a virtual takeover of the northern parts of the country by various terrorist organisations and a highly destabilising coup d’état, Mali finds itself engulfed in a protracted political, security and humanitarian crisis. The worrying series of events in Mali has brought the country to the attention of international actors, including the European Union (EU), which is concerned about the lack of stability and security in the Sahel, an area adjacent to the immediate EU neighbourhood. Unfortunately, the majority of the foreign ideas on how to address Mali’s crisis lack an enduring commitment to improve the situation on the ground. Unless the international proposals are in line with the UN Secretary General’s recommendations from 29 November 2012 and veer towards long-term solutions, Mali is likely to remain destabilised for the foreseeable future.

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№26: Libya and Syria: Responsibility to Protect at a Crossroads

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English

The Arab Spring, especially the developments in Libya and Syria, revealed the persistent problem of a lack of appropriate and legally acceptable measures the international community could use to intervene in specific countries where people die because of violent acts by the authorities there. Although Responsibility to Protect (R2P) is seen as a new idea, it can be regarded as a manifestation of a trend that has already begun to affect the present but will have a major impact in the future. When the intervention in Libya started, it seemed that the importance of R2P would grow and exert increasing influence on international relations. The real significance of the UN response to the Libyan crisis was that for the first time the implementation and representation in practice of the R2P concept became real. However, it is quite clear now that the current Syrian crisis can serve as a catalyst for discussion on the necessary conditions for a military intervention, thus either strengthening the underlying trend of R2P or blocking it for years.

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№25: Emerging Latin America: A Case for Increasing Poland’s Interest in the Region

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

With the advancing “multipolarisation” of the world order, accelerated by the recent global financial crisis, Latin America is becoming one of the centres of international economic relations. High growth rates, relative resilience to the crisis and broadening business opportunities in the region have meant an improvement in the attractiveness of countries there, particularly Brazil, the sixth largest economy in the world. The changes in Latin America have found resonance in the policies of the largest countries of the European Union. The Polish government, too, should follow these moves to advance the internationalisation of domestic companies, strengthen Poland’s international position and take steps to become Latin America’s partner of choice amongst the countries that have joined the EU since 2004.

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