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Otwarcie niemieckiego rynku pracy na pracowników spoza UE – konsekwencje dla Polski

Author(s): Katarzyna Michalska / Language(s): Polish

W marcu 2020 r. w Niemczech wejdzie w życie ustawa o imigracji wykwalifikowanej, skierowana do pracowników spoza państw UE. Polscy pracodawcy obawiają się, że lepsze warunki zatrudnienia zachęcą do wyjazdu z Polski ukraińskich migrantów zarobkowych. Jednak tylko niewielka część z nich będzie spełniać kryteria przewidziane w niemieckich przepisach. Jeśli dodatkowo w Polsce zostanie uchwalona ustawa o rynku pracy, która powinna usprawnić procedury zatrudniania cudzoziemców, w najbliższych latach nie dojdzie do masowej emigracji Ukraińców do Niemiec.

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RES Development: Implications for Security and Poland’s Foreign Policy

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

The dynamic growth of renewable energy sources (RES) and accompanying digitalisation of the electrical grid creates new challenges for Poland’s and the EU’s security. The most important include securing supplies of raw materials for RES (photovoltaic panels, wind turbines) and ensuring cybersecurity for the energy grid. The importance of these issues will only grow with the ambitions of authoritarian regimes to control the supply of raw materials and cyberthreats posed by these regimes and non-state actors.

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Rozwój odnawialnych źródeł energii – implikacje dla bezpieczeństwa i polityki zagranicznej Polski

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): Polish

Dynamiczny rozwój odnawialnych źródeł energii (OZE) i towarzysząca mu cyfryzacja sieci elektroenergetycznych stanowią nowe wyzwania dla bezpieczeństwa Polski i UE. Do najważniejszych należą zagwarantowanie dostaw surowców niezbędnych do produkcji instalacji służących wytwarzaniu energii (paneli fotowoltaicznych, turbin wiatrowych) oraz zapewnienie cyberbezpieczeństwa sieci przesyłowych energii elektrycznej. Kwestie te będą coraz istotniejsze ze względu na ambicje państw autorytarnych dążących do przejęcia kontroli nad zasobami ww. surowców czy działania cyberprzestępcze, podejmowane zarówno przez te kraje, jak i podmioty pozapaństwowe.

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Prześladowania ludności Rohindża – wyzwania dla transformacji Mjanmy

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): Polish

Operacje armii mjanmańskiej w stanie Rakhine spowodowały exodus do sąsiedniego Bangladeszu ponad 400 tys. osób z mniejszości Rohindża. Działania te spotkały się z krytyką międzynarodową i oskarżeniami władz Mjanmy o akceptowanie „czystek etnicznych”. W ocenie wydarzeń należy jednak wziąć pod uwagę uwarunkowania polityczne i trwający proces pokojowy. Realną władzę w Mjanmie nadal sprawuje wojsko, które może wykorzystać obecny kryzys do zatrzymania trwającej od 2011 r. transformacji demokratycznej. Partnerzy zagraniczni powinni domagać się powrotu uchodźców i wspierać ich pełną reintegrację zgodnie z rekomendacjami komisji doradczej ds. Rakhine Kofiego Annana.

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Kłopotliwy sukces płacy minimalnej: niemiecki rynek pracy w czasach napływu uchodźców

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): Polish

Presja wywołana przez kryzys uchodźczy w Niemczech nie ominie płacy minimalnej. Zniesienie flagowego projektu socjalnego rządu Angeli Merkel jest jednak mało prawdopodobne: należy się raczej spodziewać wprowadzenia wyjątków dla azylantów i dodatkowych programów aktywizacji zawodowej. Pomysły Niemiec w tej sferze mają szansę stać się punktem odniesienia dla członków UE zmagających się z podobnymi problemami, jak i początkiem inicjatyw „pogłębionej współpracy” w polityce integracji azylantów.

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NATO Summit in Vilnius: breakthroughs and unfulfilled hopes

Author(s): Jakub Graca,Justyna Gotkowska,Marek Menkiszak,Krzysztof Nieczypor,Tadeusz Iwański / Language(s): English

The main topics of the NATO Vilnius Summit held on 11–12 July were deterrence and defense, Ukraine’s future membership of NATO, and deepening relations with partners in the Indo-Pacific. The Alliance is partly returning to the defense planning processes and structures that were in place during the Cold War, but which NATO abandoned in the 1990s. The adoption of three regional defense plans constitutes a structural change in NATO’s approach to collective defense, but will require implementation and funding in the years to come.

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A ‘key state’: India is gaining significance as a political and economic partner for Germany

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło,Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s visit to India in February this year was unlike his other foreign trips. This visit was important not only politically but also economically: the German chancellor was accompanied by managers of companies such as Siemens, ThyssenKrupp, Deutsche Post and SAP. This once again proves Germany’s growing interest in building stronger relations with India. In June 2022, Scholz invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to a G7 meeting at Schloss Elmau. Only two months earlier, Modi had paid an official visit to Berlin during the sixth bilateral intergovernmental consultations. In February this year, in addition to the chancellor himself, Christian Lindner (FDP) and Annalena Baerbock (Greens) visited India. Their visits were part of meetings of the finance and foreign affairs ministers of the G20 group.

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The EU gas market: revolutionary changes and the spectre of another winter

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

The European Union survived last winter in a surprisingly effective way. Despite the ongoing gas crisis and Russia’s energy war with the West, there were neither painful shortages of gas or the need to ration it. This was the result of an exceptionally favourable set of circumstances: a warmer winter than usual in Europe and lower gas demand in China, and on the other hand, the actions taken by individual member states and the EU as a whole, as well as changes on the market.2022 saw a revolutionary reshuffle in the directions and routes of gas supplies to the EU. Pipeline supplies from Russia, which used to be the largest source, fell by 56% year-on-year, while LNG supplies from the global market rose by 67%. Liquefied natural gas has become the most important source, and the EU has become the world’s fastest growing market for LNG, despite its long-term goals of achieving climate neutrality and reducing gas consumption. Unexpectedly, and contrary to the earlier assumptions of the European energy and climate policy, the construction of new gas infrastructure, including floating import terminals, has been stepped up. At the same time the EU’s demand for gas fell by a record 60 bcm (or over 13%) last year.

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Can the global battle for electromobility pose a threat to Central Europe?

Author(s): Konrad Popławski / Language(s): English

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) adopted in 2022 marks a profound change in the US’s approach to its economic competition with China. This will have global consequences, and will also come to affect Central Europe. Since this document was adopted, Washington has used subsidies to restrict access to the American market as a fully-fledged tool of its industrial policy. This is aimed at blocking the expansion of the Chinese automotive industry in the US and pushing it out of Western companies’ supply chains. As a result, Beijing will most likely utilise its resources to dominate the European market, capitalising on the advantages it already has. The discussion about the European response to the IRA, as well as the growing dependence of German companies on Chinese technologies in the field of electric vehicle production, suggest that Germany and Central Europe are drifting apart as regards the automotive industry, even though they used to have similar interests in this area. German vehicle manufacturers are opposed to imposing restrictions on vehicles made in China on the European market, as they fear retaliation and losing competitiveness. From the Central European perspective, the increasing presence of Chinese electric vehicles (manufactured by both European and Chinese companies) in the EU poses a threat to a key pillar of economic growth. The region has experienced unfair competition from Beijing for years, but it has managed to gain a foothold as a car production hub; its position may be undermined as a result of China’s expansion in the field of electromobility.

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Israel and the Arab states: between conflict and interdependence

Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English

In late 2020 and early 2021, Israel established official diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain (the Abraham Accords), renewed its relations with Morocco, and took steps towards establishing relations with Sudan, in a series of developments that occurred with extensive US involvement. These were Israel’s first normalisation deals since the agreements with Egypt (1979), the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO, 1993) and Jordan (1994). The following factors paved the way for this process: changes in the region related to the aftermath of the Arab Spring (the desire of Arab regimes to consolidate power, also by countering radical Islam that feeds on the struggle against Israel), the growing Iranian threat, US policy, as well as economic and energy transitions.

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A crisis rather than a disaster. The Belarusian economy a year into Russia’s war against Ukraine

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

The stability of the Belarusian economy has come under threat from the new Western sanctions, imposed on the country in 2022 for its complicity in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the loss of the Ukrainian market. According to the most pessimistic forecasts, the country will probably face a deep economic recession, involving a decline in its GDP of more than 10%, and a slump in its most profitable exports. However, official statistics for 2022 indicate that Belarus was hit by a moderate crisis during which its GDP shrank by a mere 4.7%, its industrial production by 5.4%and its total foreign trade by just 6%. Belarus has adapted to the new situation, and has been partly able to make up for these losses. The main factor that helped Minsk to ease the severity of the restrictions involved support from Russia. In exchange for Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s loyalty, Russia has made its transport and port infrastructure available for the transit of Belarusian goods and introduced preferential conditions for Belarusian exports onto its market. In addition, the magnitude of the economic crisis is being limited by certain ‘manual steering’ strategies applied by the Belarusian authorities, such as keeping industrial production at a high level (which has led to more and more goods being stored in warehouses), introducing administrative measures to block price increases, and attempting to circumvent the EU’s embargo on road freight from Belarus. However, neither the assistance from Moscow (which is also subject to sanctions) nor the ‘manual control’ of the economy are sufficient to guarantee the country’s economic stability. Moreover, with Poland and Lithuania closing more and more of their border crossing points as of February 2023, an aggravation of the crisis should be expected in the short term.

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‘The silence of the lambs’. Russian big business in wartime

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions that followed it have brought multi-billion losses to Russian big business. The magnitude of blows dealt to its main representatives has resulted in a shift in the business model they have applied thus far. Despite these losses, most Russian billionaires, just like Russian society, have tacitly come to terms with Moscow’s aggressive policy. Even those who reside abroad have not ventured to criticise the Kremlin, and instead have focused on adjusting their businesses to the new economic reality. Silence has been their main defensive strategy, enabling them to avoid being targeted by the Russian authorities.

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A multi-speed mobilisation. NATO’s eastern flank one year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Team OSW / Language(s): English

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has challenged the security of the countries of NATO's eastern flank on an unprecedented scale. The Baltic states, the Visegrad Group and the Black Sea states are all situated in the neighbourhood of Ukraine or Russia. Due to the invasion, the sense of threat posed by Russia has escalated significantly, although Russia had already been seen as a threat in the region since at least the annexation of Crimea in 2014. All these countries are advocates of strengthening NATO’s collective defence and allied presence on the eastern flank. Most of them are among the top contributors to the political and military support provided to Ukraine. Defence policy and the modernisation of the armed forces have clearly gained priority throughout the region.

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The Impact of the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine on the EU’s Economy

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

A spike in energy prices provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will inhibit the economic rebound in the EU. Member States will have to face high inflation for longer than previously expected. Forced to increase spending, they also could postpone plans to reduce their debts. The conflict with Russia is mobilising the Community to speed up the development of renewable energy and reduce dependencies on third countries, especially authoritarian ones, in strategic sectors.

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Russian economy in 2022. Adaptation and a growing budget gap

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

Russia’s macroeconomic performance in 2022 confounded forecasts from one year ago, a few weeks after the invasion of Ukraine. However, in wartime conditions, indicators such as GDP do not accurately reflect the real state of the economy, due to the rapidly increasing military expenditure, the scale of the ongoing changes and major differences between individual sectors. Furthermore, the credibility of the published macroeconomic data is declining and the government has been restricting access to statistical data.

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A year of war in Ukraine’s foreign trade

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

The Russian invasion has led to a collapse in Ukraine’s trade, in particular foreign trade. It has also caused major changes in the geographical structure of its imports and exports. Due to the Russian blockade, Ukrainian ports have lost their status as the country’s main export gateway. Rail and road transport has gained in importance, as since 24 February 2022 Ukraine has used them to ship and import most of its goods via the territory of its western neighbors. As a consequence, the European Union has consolidated its role as Kyiv’s main trade partner in both exports and imports, while Poland – for the first time in history – has become the leader in Ukraine’s trade exchange.

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‘Europe’s engine’ seizing up. French-German relations during the polycrisis

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik,Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have highlighted the differences in interests between Paris and Berlin, and caused tension to accumulate in their bilateral relations. The significance of this tension goes beyond the purely bilateral dimension: policy alignment between the EU’s two most important members has always played a key role in the integration mechanism in Europe. However, the current disputes will not necessarily bring an end to this coordination. They are deeply embedded in the patterns of the traditionally divergent approaches which Germany and France have to economic, security, and integration issues, which is why they have not come as any surprise to the ruling elites in these states. Nevertheless, both countries will benefit from overcoming them in the long-term. Efforts to define Franco--German cooperation in an enlarged and more diverse EU will pose an even greater challenge to Paris and Berlin. Flexible coalitions between states and other cooperation formats which arise ad hoc will likely compete with these two leaders.

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Dangerous liaisons. A quick and coordinate withdrawal from Russian gas is proving hard for the EU

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

The REPowerEU proposals announced on 18 May confirm the EU’s desire to end its dependence on Russian energy. Nonetheless, it illustrates the problems associated with the process of withdrawing from Russian gas, and above all with the rapid reduction of importing it. The heavy dependence which some EU countries have on Russian gas, the persistence of very high prices and the prospect of crisis and potential shortages in the coming winter make it difficult for the EU to agree internally on a significant, coordinated reduction in supplies this year. As a result, on the one hand, intra-EU discussions about sanctions on Russian gas are very difficult and increasingly rare, while on the other hand, some restraint in the European Commission’s (EC) REPowerEU ambitions regarding the level and pace of reductions in Russian imports is becoming apparent. This weakness of the EU is being exploited by Moscow. Russian counter-sanctions, including the ‘roubles-for-gas’ demand, not only lead to divisions within the EU but also reverse the previous logic of the discussion. The majority of states and companies active on the EU market, instead of thinking about ways to limit imports of Russian gas as quickly as possible, began thinking about ways to guarantee their supplies under new conditions. Therefore, the role of the European Commission in working out common principles for EU gas relations with Russia is diminishing, in favour of the individual actions of member states, which weakens the consistency of EU action. Meanwhile, Moscow appears to be taking control of the process of reducing supplies of Russian gas to the European market. While still maintaining a significant level of exports, Moscow is also maintaining an energy weapon that it could use against the EU in the context of the approaching winter.

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Production and export of food from Ukraine during the war with Russia

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Despite the war that has been raging for more than two months, Ukraine has managed to start this year’s sowing campaign, although estimates are that the areas cultivated will be up to30% smaller than in 2021. A fuel shortage could also be a problem during this year’s harvest. Nor is it clear what the harvest will look like in the occupied territories. Currently, there is no risk of a food deficit, as the country has very significant grain stocks (about 20 million tonnes), exceeding the annual consumption for some species. However, problems may arise in this regard in the Russian-occupied areas as the occupiers have been confiscating grain. The biggest challenge for Kyiv remains the blockade of ports on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, through which the vast majority of food (especially grains and vegetable oils) has been exported. Although the infrastructure of the most important of these ports has not suffered, it seems unlikely that they will resume operations in the coming months, even if a ceasefire was to be reached. This is because Moscow will be keen to continue the economic pressure. Ukraine will thus be forced to continue using alternative supply routes via EU countries, particularly Poland and Romania.

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The EU gas market and policy and the war in Ukraine

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

Neither the ongoing war in Ukraine nor the rising tensions between Russia and the West and the sanctions imposed by the latter have yet translated into disruptions of Russian gas supplies to the EU. However, they are unequivocally deepening the crisis on the EU gas market, which has been evident for more than six months now. This is evidenced by the record high and volatile commodity prices, as well as the nervousness of all the market players who anticipate disruptions in supplies from Russia and react with panic to suggestions of imposing sanctions aimed at Russian gas exports. The aggression against Ukraine has triggered a significant restructuring of the gas policy of the EU as a whole and most of its individual member states. There is a return to thinking in terms of security of supply – which has largely been absent in recent years – and a determination to become independent of gas and other hydrocarbons from Russia. Although at present many EU countries are not prepared to embargo imports of Russian gas, most are reforming their energy policies in such a way as to minimise their dependence on Russian raw materials.

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