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Ukraine’s Reconstruction Already on the Agenda

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine still ongoing, the international community is already preparing for the country’s reconstruction from the destruction of war. Earlier this year, the G7 countries established a platform to coordinate the future recovery of Ukraine. Still missing, nonetheless, is a decision regarding funding. Key to any successful reconstruction will be to provide post-war Ukraine with viable security guarantees, upon which the involvement of private investors will ultimately depend.

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Hungary Maintains Course on Russia One Year after the Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

The Hungarian government, although in principle not blocking Allied support for Ukraine, represents a position favouring Russia. This is contrary to the strategic interests of NATO and EU partners, including Poland, and results in a growing loss of credibility of the Hungarian government in these organisations. Therefore, Hungary’s attitude will degrade its position, regardless of the resolution of the war in Ukraine. It may also hinder joint action within NATO and the EU, given their limited influence on the Hungarian government’s decisions.

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Strengthening State Security a Challenge for the Pro-European Moldovan Government

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

On 30 March, the Moldovan parliament began work on a package of bills reforming the Security and Intelligence Service. This is an element of the pro-European government’s response to Russia’s destabilisation of the country. In February, President Maia Sandu accused Russia of attempting an armed coup in Chişinău. However, the imminent threat of this is contradicted by the appointment of new prime minister Dorin Recean, the former interior minister, in mainly an image-related move. It is in the interest of Poland to strengthen the stability of Moldova a sit will contribute to the security of the Eastern Flank of the EU and NATO, as well as guard Ukraine from the rear.

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How the War in Ukraine Impacts NATO Policy in the Black Sea Region

Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has increased the strategic importance of the Black Sea region for the security of NATO’s Eastern Flank. The activity of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, energy blackmail, and blocking of sea lines of communication pose a threat to the Alliance and its partner states (Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia). Although NATO’s ability to operate in the Black Sea is limited by the Montreux Convention, the Alliance can enhance deterrence credibility by increasing its military presence in the region and expanding cooperation with partners.

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COVID, Economy, Security: Themes of the French Presidential Campaign

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

While the French election campaign focuses on internal issues, the most important of them, including fighting the pandemic, the economy, environmental protection, and security issues, relate to the debate over globalisation and European integration. Macron’s policy of strengthening cooperation with partners in the EU and NATO is being criticised by the centre-right candidate Valérie Pécresse or negated by the far-right and far-left. Despite the different views on the future of the EU and the transatlantic partnership, the re-election of Macron seems to be the best scenario for Poland’s interests.

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Support for Ukraine in the American Political Debate

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The growing threat of new Russian aggression has raised the importance of the support for Ukraine in the American political debate. The Biden administration has decided to increase military support for Ukraine, a decision which is supported by most Democrats and Republicans. However, pressure is growing in Congress to further strengthen Ukraine and implement tools to immediately impose sanctions on Russia in the event of a new attack. At the same time, there are voices in both parties warning against American involvement in this crisis. If those views grow more popular, that may hinder the political debate about the U.S. involvement in European security.

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Hungary and the Russian Threat of Further Aggression Against Ukraine

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Hungary considers the dispute between the West and Russia over renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine is of no concern to it. The government defines its stance from a neutral third party position. It neither condemns Russia’s actions nor supports Ukraine. Past actions indicate Hungary will not veto EU and allied actions against Russia if it would be the only country to break from common positions, however, it will continue to act to the benefit of Russia by trying to weaken Euro-Atlantic structures and impede cooperation with Ukraine.

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Taliban Tightening Grip on Afghanistan One Year after Taking Power

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Since the seizure of Kabul on 15 August 2021, the Taliban have been consolidating power by recreating the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan of the 1990s. The Taliban government’s limiting of human rights, especially of women, and constant ties to terrorist organisations reduce the chances of international recognition. Afghanistan has not yet become a centre of global terrorism or a source of mass migration, but the suspension of economic support has deepened the humanitarian crisis. Western partners, including the EU and the U.S., should pursue humanitarian aid and consider unfreezing Afghan currency reserves.

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A tactical pause in relations with the West: China plays on hopes for peace

Author(s): Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

In November 2022, China’s leader Xi Jinping embarked on a wide-ranging diplomatic campaign to prevent an uncontrolled breakdown of relations with the West, which should be considered a short-term success, at least in terms of reopening channels of communication with Western countries. This move has succeeded owing to Beijing’s instrumental use of the West’s hopes that it can secure China’s opposition to Russia’s possible use of weapons of mass destruction, and belief that China might be willing to mediate peace in Ukraine. The PRC’s actions have also met the expectations of its Western partners as they look for ways to stabilise relations with Beijing in the face of a looming global economic crisis. At present, we can say that the escalation has been halted, although the negative trend in China’s relations with the West –in particular with the United States – has not been reversed. Faced with economic and social challenges at home, the PRC will make further efforts to avoid economic confrontation with the West in the immediate future, by using more or less veiled suggestions of possible mediation in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

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Japan Focuses Policy on Economic Security

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Japan is stepping up efforts to increase its economic security. In August, some new regulations came into force aimed at strengthening, among others, the resilience of supply chains and developing technological potential. Japan is thus responding to the challenges of China’s policy, the U.S.-China rivalry, and global technological progress. Improving economic security will require the government to cooperate with both Japanese business and international partners, including the U.S. and the EU.

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The war in Ukraine: consequences for the Bundeswehr and Germany’s policy in NATO

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has undermined the principle of German policy based on the notion that “the security of Europe can only be built with Russia, not against it”. Most German elites have come to understand that Putin’s Russia is not only a challenge but also a threat to NATO, and that investments in national defence and bolstering collective defence are therefore necessary. However, when it comes to supporting Ukraine and raising the costs of the current war for Russia, the German government continues to factor into its calculations its own dependence on Russian oil and gas and the resistance of some in the SPD to supplying Kyiv with weapons. Berlin still fails to see that the Kremlin’s defeat in this war is necessary to ensure long-term security in Europe.

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Russians Against the War: Under the White-Blue-White Flag

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Russians opposing the war in Ukraine use the white-blue-white flag (WBW) to identify themselves. It is used by a variety of circles, from democratic to radical, including groups admitting to guerrilla warfare in Russia and Russians fighting in Ukraine against Russian troops. Protesters against the invasion of Ukraine are a minority in Russian society. They can openly voice their views only outside the Russian Federation, so their actions do not translate into a change in Russian policy.

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Ukrainians Plan for Post-War Reconstruction

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

Despite the ongoing military operations, Ukraine is already preparing for reconstruction. The concept it presented in Lugano, Switzerland, in July this year envisages not only the rebuilding of damaged facilities but also a comprehensive transformation of the state and economy. So far, it has not been possible to secure sufficient funding, and it also will be a challenge to coordinate such a wide-ranging undertaking. Early planning of reconstruction activities increases the chances of its success and boosts Ukrainian morale. It also allows Ukraine's partners, including Poland, to be better prepared to take part in the reconstruction.

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Lukashenka’s last line of defence. The Belarusian security apparatus in a time of crisis

Author(s): Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

The political crisis which has been raging in Belarus since August 2020 and the growing public discontent with the regime have become the greatest challenge to the current government in recent history. Lukashenka has not considered the possibility of stabilising the situation by means of at least superficially holding a dialogue with society. He has resorted to repressive methods to crush the crisis and adopted a model of state management that resembles a state of emergency. The state’s internal security institutions have become the most important pillar of Belarusian authoritarianism, to a degree holding Lukashenka hostage to their vision of the world. The ever-expanding legal instruments allowing for the radical ramping up of repression against the regime’s opponents have reinforced the police state system in which all spheres of activity, not only social, but also economic and educational, have been placed under strict supervision by the KGB, the Ministry for Internal Affairs or the prosecutor’s office. This has led to the marginalisation of the civilian nomenklatura’s role, making it easier for representatives of the ministries of state power to consolidate their position in the administration. The position of the Belarusian security institutions has also been strengthened by their good relations with the Russian state power sector, especially with regard to coordinating activities against the West.

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Digitisation in Romania accelerates during the pandemic

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): English

Romania stands out as having one of the EU’s least developed systems of online public services, which contrasts with its extensive telecommunications infrastructure offering very fast and cheap access to the network. This is due both to the policy of the governments, which until 2019 did not show much interest in the digitisation process of the country or failed to propose a comprehensive programme for its implementation, and to the resistance of the public, who were distrustful of the e-government solutions offered. However, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a breakthrough: on one hand, it spurred the authorities to introduce legal changes and deploy new technological solutions that had hitherto been postponed, and on the other, it forced Romanian society to use public digital services.

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Under the radar of big politics: cooperation between China and Ukraine

Author(s): Krzysztof Nieczypor,Jakub Jakóbowski / Language(s): English

Chinese-Ukrainian relations are still defined by the events of 2014: the Ukrainian Revolution of Dignity and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Their consequences continue to block high-level political dialogue between Kyiv and Beijing, which Washington (and to a certain extent Moscow as well) also does not want. However, Sino-Ukrainian economic cooperation is expanding rapidly, with trade as its main driver. In 2019 the PRC became Ukraine’s most important trading partner due to the rapid rise in Ukrainian exports. Beijing itself is sceptical of Ukraine’s post-2014 political transition and its turn to the West, but it is interested in Ukraine’s military technologies, raw materials and agricultural potential. Since President Volodymyr Zelensky came to power, Ukraine has clearly been seeking a new opening in its relations with China, looking to widen the foreign policy space in the game between the West and Russia. However, it remains essentially excluded from financial and investment cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. Any significant deepening of relations between Kyiv and Beijing would first and foremost require a resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. However, the existing dynamic economic cooperation ‘under the radar’ of great-power politics still has considerable potential.

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The (pan-)Turkic Caucasus. The Baku-Ankara alliance and its regional importance

Author(s): Mateusz Chudziak,Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

The Nagorno-Karabakh war of autumn 2020 and the military parade organized in Baku after its end, which was jointly hosted by the presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkey, Ilham Aliyev and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, highlighted the potential of the alliance between both countries. The close ties between Baku and Ankara result from a strategic choice made almost three decades ago. The diverse activities they have undertaken to strengthen their cooperation have varied in intensity over that period, but their overall direction has remained unchanged. As a result, Azerbaijan has gradually distanced itself from Russia, and through its cooperation with Turkey, it has moved closer (albeit mainly economically) to the West. Ankara, on the other hand, has strengthened its position in the South Caucasus. This has led to the formation of an Ankara-Bakuaxis, which presents a challenge to Moscow because it limits Russian influence in the region. However, the Turkic duo has been taking care not to antagonize Russia directly; one expression of this approach is their acceptance of Moscow’s key role in resolving the Karabakh conflict.

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Seeking an additional reassurance. The EU and France in Estonia’s security policy

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Over the last few years, Tallinn has been increasingly involved in military cooperation in the EU and with France. To date, Estonia is the only country on NATO’s eastern flank to join the French-led European Intervention Initiative. The country is developing the European pillar of its security policy with a view to diversifying military cooperation, which has centred primarily around the US and UK. This is due to Estonia’s concerns about the future of their military posture in Europe. However, due to the leading role of the US and UK in NATO’s deterrence and defence on the eastern flank, working with the two countries will continue to be Estonia’s security policy priority.

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Russia’s Peacekeeping Operation in Nagorno-Karabakh: Goals and Challenges

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

During a meeting in Moscow on 11 January, the representatives of Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan discussed the situation after the ceasefire in the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict. The peacekeeping force of the Russian Federation located in NK remains the guarantor of the cessation of the fighting. The practice of Russian conciliation so far differs from that of UN peacekeeping operations and strengthens Russia’s military position in the region. A challenge for it will be Turkey’s growing ambitions in the South Caucasus, as well as the lack of an agreed status for NK, which in the future may lead to the resumption of military operations in this territory.

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Rosyjska demonstracja siły na granicy z Ukrainą i na okupowanym Krymie

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): Polish

Organizując w kwietniu br. ćwiczenia wojskowe i sygnalizując gotowość zaatakowania Ukrainy, Rosja chciała wymusić na niej powrót do rozmów w ramach procesu normandzkiego, a jednocześnie sprawdzić reakcję państw zachodnich, zwłaszcza USA. W wymiarze militarnym był to ważny element testu stanu gotowości bojowej rosyjskich sił zbrojnych na zachodnim kierunku strategicznym, czego kolejną odsłoną będą wrześniowe ćwiczenia „Zachód”. Mimo wycofania większości rosyjskich jednostek do miejsc stałej dyslokacji w regionie utrzyma się napięta sytuacja.

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