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This year’s Victory Day commemorations in Russia took place amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. In his speech, Vladimir Putin recalled the reasons for the “pre-emptive strike” against Ukraine and declared that victory was near. Fearing a drop in support for the aggression against Ukraine, Putin chose not to announce a general mobilisation.
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On 12 May, President Sauli Niinistö and Prime Minister Sanna Marin issued a joint statement in which they supported Finland’s application for NATO membership as soon as possible. The declaration marks an historic change in the Finnish perception of security caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Finland wants to strengthen its security by departing from the policy of non-alignment. It may also influence Sweden’s decision on the same issue. In view of the expected sharp reaction from Russia and the long duration of the accession process, the UK’s security guarantees for Finland and Sweden, announced on 11 May, are of great importance.
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In the last days of May, the fiercest fighting is taking place in Donbas, and the Russians are striving to occupy the entirety of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Russian troops are increasingly using scorched-earth tactics, which increases the human and material losses in Ukraine. This increases the need for Western support, not only militarily and in the humanitarian dimension, but also financial.
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The leaders of NATO have approved a new strategy that should help the Alliance adapt to the threats posed by Russia and the increasing rivalry with China. They also made concrete decisions to strengthen defence and deterrence that largely correspond to the appeals of the Eastern Flank countries, including Poland.
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On 4 July, Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russian troops had taken full control of Luhansk Oblast, achieving one of Russia’s main initial goals of the military operation in Ukraine. In the near future, its forces will concentrate on capturing the entire Donetsk region and will continue shelling the Kharkiv and Odesa regions and conducting operations in the south of Ukraine. Given the difficult situation of the Ukrainian troops, it is necessary to maintain or even increase the amount and speed of deliveries of Western weapons, including artillery systems, along with training of crews and assistance in the treatment of the wounded.
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On 30 March, Russia intensified its military activities in eastern Ukraine. Contrary to its announcements, Russia has not yet withdrawn significant numbers of forces from the vicinity of Kyiv and instead is regrouping in the north of Ukraine. The greater intensity of the fighting in eastern Ukraine indicates that Russia is determined to occupy the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts for the long term.
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Despite the formal launch of the second stage of the offensive against Ukraine on 19 April, Russia has failed so far to break through the Ukrainian defences in the east of the country. Intense fighting is taking place there but no significant change in the military situation should be expected in the near future. At the same time, it is increasingly important to supply Ukraine not only with defensive weapons but also other weapon systems such as tanks, artillery, and infantry fighting vehicles to allow it to maintain a defensive position and mount possible counterattacks. At a conference in Rammstein, Germany, on 26 April, Western countries agreed to increase and coordinate such support.
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On 26 April, the U.S. initiated the Ukraine Contact Group, which will coordinate military equipment and weapons aid from at least 43 states to Ukraine. One of the group’s priorities will be to provide heavy artillery and ammunition, which are critical to Ukraine’s defence. With the focus of Russia’s operations on the east and south of Ukraine, the defenders are running out of artillery systems and munitions, which should be re-filled quickly. The role of artillery in Russia’s operational art and tactics also have implications for defence planning for the Eastern Flank of NATO.
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Israel’s stance on Russia’s latest aggression against Ukraine remains cautious. The Israeli government is providing political support to Ukraine, focusing on humanitarian aid and assistance for the Jewish population, but avoids directly condemning Russia. Israel’s neutral stance may allow it to play a mediating role but the effectiveness of these actions remains limited.
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Military operations in Ukraine continued in four directions - two in the south of the country, one in the east, and one in the north. In all these regions, especially in encircled cities, such as Mariupol and Kharkiv, the humanitarian situation is deteriorating. Despite suffering significant losses, Russia still has the ability to support its fighting units, although it still has difficulties, especially with logistics.
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused Sweden to further tighten its relations with the U.S. and deepen cooperation with NATO. It is in tandem with Finland, with which it closely coordinates next steps to strengthen defence in the Nordic-Baltic region. In Sweden, however, the political debate on membership in the Alliance is less advanced.
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From the beginning of the invasion, Russia has been trying to deter Western countries from supporting Ukraine. It did not threaten an immediate nuclear attack, but has been signalling that further escalation might lead to it. This was met with a measured response from NATO nuclear-armed countries and has not prevented arms deliveries to Ukraine nor the imposition of sanctions on Russia. The fear of nuclear war with Russia, however, did influence the NATO decision to exclude direct involvement in the conflict and resistance of some allies to actions that, in their opinion, could be interpreted by Russia as joining the hostilities.
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Despite the relative progress of its offensive in southern Ukraine, Russia is far from achieving the main political goal of regime change or capitulation of the government in Ukraine. Russia might now adapt its forces’ tactics and capabilities for siege and urban warfare in the main cities and capital of Ukraine. Elements of this adaptation might be a much bigger role for cluster munitions and thermobaric weapons, which are especially dangerous for both the defenders and civilians of Ukraine.
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Lithuania actively supports Ukraine in the political and military dimensions. It argues that the NATO partners should provide the besieged country with all available means. Moreover, it perceives the Russian aggression as a threat to its own security and that of the other Baltic States. That is why it is striving to strengthen NATO’s Eastern Flank, which was the subject of talks on 7 March between the Lithuanian government and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Vilnius.
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The governments of Japan and Australia have concluded an agreement on military cooperation. This is another element of the deepening military relations between the states that make up the QUAD and is intended to be a response to China’s strengthening military potential in the region. The agreement may speed up negotiations of similar agreements between Japan and European countries.
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On 9-10 January, U.S. and Russian delegations met in Geneva, and the NATO-Russia Council met on 12 January in Brussels. The U.S. and NATO rejected Russia’s demands to grant it several “security guarantees”, including non-enlargement of the Alliance. At the same time, the U.S. and NATO offered dialogue on the basis of reciprocity with regards to arms control, military transparency, and prevention of military incidents. Russia, however, stated that it did not deem it possible to continue the talks because its main demands were rejected.
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In the letter sent to a number of OSCE participating states, published on 1 February, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called on them to clarify their position with regards to the fulfilment of OSCE obligations, in particular their interpretation of the principle of the indivisibility of security. This initiative is an element of the Russian efforts to revise the European security system, as well as an attempt to shift the responsibility for the ongoing crisis to NATO.
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On 2 February, the Spanish daily El Pais published written responses to Russia’s draft treaties from December 2021, delivered by the U.S. and NATO to Russia on 26 January. The authenticity of the American document was confirmed by the spokesman for the U.S. Defense Department, while NATO officials have not questioned the credibility of the second document. Both responses confirm the rejection of the key Russian demands and specify the offer of dialogue. Progress in the talks remains dependent on Russia’s reciprocity and de-escalation with respect to Ukraine.
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On 24 February at about 5 a.m., the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation began shelling Ukrainian units in the east of the country and carried out rocket and bomb attacks on the airports in Borispol, Ozernoye, Kulbakin, Chuguev, Kramatorsk, and Chernobayevka, as well as on other military facilities throughout Ukraine. At the same time, artillery shelling of Ukrainian territory along the border with Russia and Belarus began. Airspace was closed to civilian aircraft.
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The Russian public is little aware of the scale of their country’s aggression against Ukraine. Only relatively small demonstrations and expressions of support for Ukraine by Russian citizens have taken place in the country. Russians have mostly supported the government’s recognition of the independence of the self-proclaimed “republics” in Donbas and accuse NATO of causing the conflict. The support of the business and power elite for Putin depends on the victory of Russian troops in Ukraine.
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