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Franco-Greek Defence Partnership

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka,Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

The new Franco-Greek defence agreement deepens the countries’ cooperation in the face of Turkey’s revisionist ambitions in the Eastern Mediterranean. The ships ordered by Greece as part of the deal will strengthen that country’s defence capabilities but also help the French Naval Group in its reorganisation caused by the cancellation of the submarine contract by Australia. The agreement with Greece extends the French argument for the EU to strengthen its defence capacity alongside NATO.

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Military Coup in Sudan

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

The military takeover of Sudan led by Gen. Abdel Fatah al-Burhan on 25 October will lead to blocking the process of reforms and the democratic transformation, deepening the economic crisis, and a period of social unrest. If civilian power is not restored, Sudan is threatened with a deterioration in relations with Western partners, which will benefit the Gulf states and Russia.

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Biden and Putin Meet Online

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

On 7 December, the U.S. and Russian presidents, Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, met for the second time as heads of state, this time by videoconference. While the meeting was a U.S. initiative, it came in response to Russia’s actions, particularly its concentration of troops on the border with Ukraine and demands for security guarantees regarding the non-enlargement of NATO to the east.

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New Sanctions in the U.S. Defence Budget

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

In the U.S. National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for 2021, finally adopted on 1 January 2021, Congress included provisions on sanctions against Turkey for its purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system and on entities involved in the construction of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline. Sanctions related to the S-400 were adopted by the Trump administration 18 days before the NDAA was passed, but the law will further limit President-elect Joe Biden and his administration’s latitude in relations with Turkey. The NDAA also creates an opportunity to prevent the completion of NS2, despite particularly strong support from Germany. These disputes with two important allies will be a challenge from the very beginning of the new president’s term of office.

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Russia Forms the Military District of the Northern Fleet

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

As of 1 January, the Russian Military District of the Northern Fleet is operational. The fifth military district, it covers the northern part of the Western MD, including islands of the Arctic Ocean. The creation of the district is another step in the implementation of Russia’s arctic policy and shows that through the projection of power, it wants to further strengthen its position as the strongest state in this region.

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Extension of the New START Treaty

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

On 26 January, the U.S. and Russia agreed to extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) for five years, the longest possible period allowed by the accord. It was set to expire on 5 February. The extension of New START does not mean a new “reset” in U.S.-Russia relations and is mainly intended to limit the costs of competition between the two countries and the risks of escalation. The Biden administration stated that it will explore further arms control agreements with Russia but also firmly respond to aggressive Russian actions against the U.S. and its allies.

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Coup in Myanmar - Democratisation Interrupted

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The 1 February military coup in Myanmar has stopped the country’s democratic transformation, hampers the prospects for peace, and deepens its international isolation. This will be the first major test for the new U.S. administration as it sets out to strengthen democracy around the world. The event may contribute to a joint initiative between the EU and the U.S.

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Towards Deeper Integration - Lukashenka’s Visit to Sochi

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarus’ Alexander Lukashenka met for the first time since September last year, and the main topic of their talks was plans for further integration of both countries. The course of the visit proves that Russia is pressing to deepen political, economic, and military cooperation, which will weaken Belarus’ international position.

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Closing a Chapter - U.S. to Withdraw from Afghanistan

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

U.S. President Joe Biden announced on 14 April the complete withdrawal from Afghanistan of the remaining 3,500 American troops before 11 September 2021, the 20th anniversary of the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington. Simultaneously, NATO will end its mission, starting withdrawing forces even in April. This marks the end of the longest armed conflict in U.S. history, but increases the risk of an escalation of the Afghan civil war and the eventual seizure of power by the Taliban.

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Return of the European Army Idea?

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

A day before the meeting of the Council of the EU on 6 May, the media revealed that 14 Member States proposed to establish a joint, European military force. This concept does not assume building a supranational European army, nonetheless it will add dynamics to the debate on the EU military level of ambition, and about the size and character of EU’s autonomous military capabilities in particular.

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NATO Summit in Brussels - A Pivotal Moment for the Alliance

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

On 14 June, NATO leaders met at the first summit with U.S. President Joe Biden. They agreed to start work on a new NATO strategic concept, which should be adopted in 2022, defining the Alliance’s priorities for the next decade. At the same time, they approved decisions to prepare NATO for the challenges related to a rising China, Russia’s increasingly aggressive policy, the development of emerging and disruptive technologies, and climate change.

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Russia Turns to "Crypto-mobilisation" to Bolster Forces

Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

The hostilities in Ukraine are leading to such high losses among Russian troops that replenishing and rotating them is becoming a problem. In order to maintain the occupied territories, Russia is supplementing its combat potential by increasing the number of conscripts and contract soldiers, recruiting volunteers and prisoners, and forcibly mobilising the population in the occupied territories. The ongoing war makes Russia’s existing methods insufficient and the authorities may resume partial mobilisation.

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The Assassination of the Head of the Military Part of Iran’s Nuclear Programme

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

On 27 November, in an attack on the road to Tehran, Dr. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi was killed. He was identified by Western intelligence agencies as the head of a scientific team working on a nuclear warhead and weaponisation and engaged in some other secret projects of Iran’s Ministry of Defence and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The government of Iran accused Israel, specifically its Mossad intelligence agency, and threatened revenge. The killing of the nuclear scientist will complicate the U.S.-Iran negotiations on the renewal of the provisions of the 2015 nuclear agreement, which was likely the main goal of the attack presumably by Israel.

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On the Road to a New NATO Strategy

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

A group of experts appointed by the NATO Secretary General has published a report on strengthening the political cohesion of the Alliance. The main conclusions of the report “NATO 2030. United for a New Era” were presented at a meeting of the Alliance’s foreign ministers on 1 December.

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U.S. Sanctions Turkey

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

The United States has imposed sanctions on Turkey for purchasing an S-400 air-and-missile defence system from Russia. It used the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). While the limited severity of the sanctions shows that the U.S. is still eager to seek a compromise on the S-400, they also reveal that the Americans consider the presence of the Russian system in Turkey as a breaking point in relations with its ally.

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Russian Proposal to Limit (U.S.) Missiles in Europe

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

On 26 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin renewed his call for NATO to reciprocate the Russian moratorium on the deployment of ground-launched missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 km in Europe. Russia declared the moratorium after the U.S. left the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in August 2019, citing years-long Russian violation. Although the proposal is presented as a way to minimise the consequences of the collapse of the INF and contains new elements, including an offer of mutual verification, it remains unfavourable to NATO. In practice, it would not ensure the absence of Russian ground-launched missiles with this range in Europe.

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Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons - From a Rallying Cry to Entry into Force

Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English

On 24 October, Honduras became the 50th country to ratify the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). Thus, the treaty will enter into force on 22 January 2021. Poland and other NATO states have adopted a negative stance towards the treaty because they are concerned it may undermine the Alliance’s nuclear deterrence posture. The controversies surrounding the TPNW may hinder the functioning of the most important legal instrument in this area, the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).

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Pentagon Outlines Concept for the Relocation of U.S. Troops from Germany

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

On 29 July, the U.S. defence department presented a concept for the reduction of the American military presence in Germany from around 36,000 to 24,000 troops. Almost half of the forces set to be withdrawn will be relocated within Europe and the rest returned to the U.S., while rotational deployments to Europe are to increase. The Pentagon has stated that these steps will bolster NATO and deterrence of Russia, although in fact they are largely the result of U.S. President Donald Trump’s June decision to punish Germany for insufficient defence spending, and the concept is intended to minimise the negative effects of that announcement. Implementation of the plans in their entirety is, however, uncertain, given the time needed to fully develop and implement them and the possible change of U.S. administration after the November presidential election.

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U.S. to Reduce Military Presence in Germany

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

On 15 June, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed earlier reports that he plans to reduce U.S. forces in Germany from around 34,500 to 25,000 troops. Although the decision is related to U.S.- German disputes, it undermines the policy of deterring Russia conducted by Trump’s own administration and NATO. While the specifics and date of the drawdown are not yet known, the announcement of the plan and perspective of weakening U.S. military capabilities in Europe are already deepening transatlantic tensions.

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Russian Policy on Nuclear Deterrence

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On 2 June, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree titled the “Foundations of Russian Federation State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence”. The document indicates, among others, that Russia recognises as key to its security countering the strengthening of NATO’s Eastern Flank. It also makes clear that Russia may decide to use nuclear weapons if state functions fail because of an external attack.

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