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№88: Russia’s Political Offensive in Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

After increasing its leverage in the security domain in post-Soviet states following the annexation of Crimea and proving itself to be a capable game-changer in the Middle East (Syria), Russia turned to Africa in its efforts to regain a global position. In the last year, Russia has focused on strengthening its influence and securing military and economic outposts. Its government-to-government approach tends to favour isolated regimes struggling with shortages of legitimacy by offering them a boost in security capacities. In return, Russia obtains access to cash-effective industries. Both pose challenges to EU policies as the bloc’s African partners increasingly perceive Russia as an alternative source of support.

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№74: Out of the Comfort Zone: Russia and the Nuclear Deal with Iran

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal,Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): English

Beyond the headline-making S-300 missile deal, the international nuclear agreement with Iran poses a multifaceted strategic dilemma for Russia. Iran’s potential de-isolation will necessitate a speeded-up rebranding of Russia and more policy acrobatics, among which reacting to the new dynamics in the energy market will be the most challenging. It is becoming imperative for Moscow not to close options in the Middle East: adopt softer stances, make obscure moves, and avoid camps, especially the Iran- Syria one. In the post-Soviet neighbourhood, Iran’s clout, powered by a probable cycle of economic growth, is likely to increase, pushing Russia to make adjustments as well. While preoccupied by softly limiting Iran’s influence, Russia might use the de-isolation of Iran to legitimise the Eurasian Economic Union, seal off the Caspian Sea from the West and keep the rising Chinese influence in Central Asia in check.

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№64: Norwegian and Polish Security Sector Reform Experiences from Afghanistan

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

In the coming decade, NATO and EU security is likely to be challenged by the ongoing conflicts and potential instability in different parts of Eastern Europe, the Balkans, the Middle East and North Africa. Both organisations are capable of supporting stability through different forms of cooperation with their partners but they could improve their impact significantly by closer collaboration. One of the most promising platforms for such a unity of effort could be Security Sector Reform (SSR)—a vital measure for building sustainable peace. Both NATO and the EU could use the experience of Norway, a NATO member, and Poland, a member of both the EU and NATO and a country that contributed significant military and civilian resources to the stability and development of Afghanistan between 2001 and 2014. Although the precise results of the SSR process in Afghanistan remain contested, the lessons hard learnt by both countries should be regarded as a noteworthy asset, not least when it comes to building closer cooperation between Poland and Norway during future SSR missions.

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№51: Careful What You Wish For: Nuclear Reductions and Conventional Deterrence in Europe after Crimea

Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English

As NATO contemplates changes in its deterrence posture amid Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, questions regarding the relationship between the Alliance’s nuclear and conventional dimensions have gained importance. Some experts propose that the Allies should spend their scarce funds on conventional instruments of deterrence rather than on the U.S. nuclear weapons based in Europe. Still, the suggested shift of emphasis from nuclear to conventional would not be that easy to implement. Even with U.S. nuclear weapons removed from Europe, strengthening conventional deterrence in parallel could result in Russia increasing its reliance on its own nuclear weapons and bringing them closer to Alliance territory, further destabilising European security. Therefore, NATO should avoid making radical changes in its nuclear posture and concentrate on a calibrated beef-up of its nonnuclear presence along the eastern flank.

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№46: Split Three Ways on Ukraine: Turkey in a Changing Regional Order

Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English

With its low-level involvement in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Ankara repeated its customary formula of refraining from disrupting relations with Moscow, but also sought to maximise the benefits from its position, in order to recover its declining power. Yet this is not a voluntary strategy, so much as an effort by Turkey to make the best of a bad hand. The crisis between Russia and the West affects Turkey’s security concerns, economic interests and wider domestic and foreign policy ambitions. Although non-involvement has so far carried few direct costs, Turkey needs to leverage its low-profile position, not least to ensure NATO solidarity, and indeed might soften its position in internal NATO debates. And yet this might in turn create a new conflict of interests: Turkey needs to maintain its soft power capacities, not least in order to hook into the EU, while the EU needs to deepen Turkey’s integration in order to develop a cohesive answer to the new circumstances.

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№34: Rethinking Conventional Arms Control in Europe: A Transparency-Centred Approach

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec / Language(s): English

Conventional arms control in Europe is not functioning as it should, which has led to a lower level of military predictability and confidence on the continent. There is a need for new thinking on how to restore a functional conventional arms control mechanism and update it to the current realities. It is worth thorough consideration whether the modern conventional arms control system can be based solely on transparency measures without any numerical, qualitative or geographical limitations. Such a transparency-centred approach may offer a promising path forward to building an enduring platform that would maintain trust in Europe.

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№24: Republicans on U.S. Foreign Policy: Romney’s Reluctant Embrace of Neoconservatism

Author(s): Bartosz Wiśniewski / Language(s): English

If positions taken by a presidential candidate during the campaign are any indications of the kind of policies that would be implemented in case of electoral success, then Republican Mitt Romney’s foreign and security policy agenda could be labeled as neoconservative. On the campaign trail, Romney has repeatedly invoked or alluded to concepts associated with this strand of Republican thinking about the United States’ role in the world, including so-called moral clarity as a key foreign policy driver, unrivalled military capabilities, seeking and ensuring maximum freedom to manoeuvre for a transformative (if not revolutionary) global strategy without displaying too much deference to multilateralism, standing up to (as opposed to seeking accommodation with) America’s rivals, and preempting growing threats to national security to prevent them from becoming full-blown crises.

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№16: Reductions of Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Unbinding the Gordian Knot

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec / Language(s): English

With new momentum for nuclear disarmament and arms control following U.S. President Barack Obama’s 2009 Prague speech, questions about NATO’s nuclear policy and posture escaped from an “underground storage site” and regained a prominent place in the debate within NATO. The discussions, which accompanied works on NATO’s Strategic Concept, focused to a large extent on the future deployment in Europe of U.S. tactical (non-strategic) nuclear weapons. Currently, about 180 U.S. B-61 nuclear gravity bombs, deliverable by specifically adapted aircraft (Dual Capable Aircraft, DCA), are stored in six bases in five European countries (Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy and Turkey). On the one hand, reductions and the ultimate withdrawal of these weapons have been perceived as a solution to the question of how NATO can reduce further the role of nuclear weapons and move closer to the objective of a world free of nuclear weapons. On the other hand, consideration about how and under what circumstances those tactical weapons could be reduced in a way that does not weaken the credibility of NATO’s deterrence and the transatlantic link remain of crucial importance.

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№7: Reduce US Nukes in Europe to Zero, and Keep NATO Strong (and Nuclear). A View from Poland

Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English

The nuclear dimension of NATO is rarely front page news, and this is no less the case in Poland than it is in other member states. While prominent as the central subject of a number of heated intra-Alliance debates during the Cold War, in recent years the question of nuclear weapons has disappeared from the NATO agenda, dominated as it is by issues of enlargement, military transformation, and the Alliance’s increasing involvement in out-of-area operations. In fact, an overwhelming majority of the citizenry of all NATO countries would be surprised to learn of the existence of any nuclear element in the Alliance, including the citizens of those European allies whose air forces have been training to drop US-made thermonuclear gravity bombs in wartime.

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The Significance of the Pro-U.S. Stance in Brazil’s Defence Policy

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Since his inauguration in January 2019, President Jair Bolsonaro has prioritised strengthening ties with the United States. His right-wing government considers the U.S. a key partner in defence cooperation and aspires close contacts with NATO. By developing these policy directions, Brazil aims to speed up the modernisation of its military, increase its defence capabilities, and expand its national arms industry to strengthen the country’s international position. The Bolsonaro administration is also interested in defence cooperation with the Visegrad Group, which may lead to enhanced Polish-Brazilian relations.

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Znaczenie proamerykańskiego kierunku w polityce obronnej Brazylii

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): Polish

Prawicowy rząd prezydenta Jaira Bolsonaro od swojej inauguracji w styczniu 2019 r. priorytetowo traktuje zacieśnienie stosunków z USA. Uznaje je za kluczowego partnera we współpracy obronnej i aspiruje do bliskich kontaktów z NATO. Rozwój tych kierunków ma pomóc w procesie modernizacji armii, zwiększaniu zdolności obronnych oraz ekspansji krajowego przemysłu zbrojeniowego, a w rezultacie wzmocnić pozycję międzynarodową Brazylii. Rząd Bolsonaro jest zainteresowany współpracą w dziedzinie obronności z Grupą Wyszehradzką, co stwarza możliwości rozwoju stosunków polsko-brazylijskich.

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European Defence Fund: Between Economy and Politics

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

The European Defence Fund (EDF) is the EU’s newly established defence-industrial policy tool. It will enable co-financing from the Union’s budget collaborative research on defence technologies and joint-capability development programmes. Its goal is to strengthen the EU’s defence industry and, thereby, its military capacity. Implemented since 2017 only in a limited form, the EDF is planned to go full-fledged in 2021–2027. Yet, it will not bring the expected results if its budget remains limited and no consensus is found on the issue of the access of non-EU NATO states to the fund.

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Europejski Fundusz Obronny – między gospodarką a polityką

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): Polish

Europejski Fundusz Obronny (EDF) to narzędzie polityki przemysłowej UE, służące dofinansowaniu z budżetu Unii badań naukowych nad innowacyjnymi technologiami obronnymi oraz programów rozwoju uzbrojenia i sprzętu wojskowego. Cel EDF to wzmocnienie przemysłu i potencjału obronnego UE. Wdrażany od 2017 r. w ograniczonej formie, Fundusz ma zacząć działać w pełnej skali w latach 2021–2027. Nie przyniesie założonych rezultatów, jeśli jego budżet zostanie ograniczony, a zarazem nie uda się znaleźć kompromisu w kwestii dostępu do EDF dla podmiotów z państw NATO spoza UE.

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The Significance of Russia’s Militarisation of Crimea

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

After it annexed Crimea in 2014, Russia began intensive militarisation of the peninsula to achieve military domination of the Black Sea Basin. This poses a growing challenge to Ukraine and NATO countries in the region. However, the lack of a common position among the Black Sea members of NATO concerning the militarisation of Crimea makes it difficult to pursue a policy of deterring Russia.

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Znaczenie i konsekwencje militaryzacji Krymu przez Rosję

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): Polish

Po aneksji Krymu Federacja Rosyjska rozpoczęła jego intensywną militaryzację i osiągnęła dominację wojskową w basenie Morza Czarnego. Rosnąca obecność sił FR na półwyspie stanowi coraz większe wyzwanie dla Ukrainy i państw NATO w regionie. Brak wspólnego stanowiska czarnomorskich członków NATO w sprawie militaryzacji Krymu nie sprzyja jednak prowadzeniu polityki odstraszania Rosji.

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Zagraniczna obecność wojskowa w Iraku w świetle rywalizacji Iran–USA

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): Polish

Irak pozostaje obszarem rywalizacji USA i Iranu. Ostatnim przejawem jej eskalacji było zabicie przez USA irańskiego generała Kasema Solejmaniego w styczniu br. w Bagdadzie. W konsekwencji iracki parlament wezwał do wycofania zagranicznych sił wojskowych. Jednak obawy przed odrodzeniem się tzw. Państwa Islamskiego (PI) i trwające od października protesty przeciw irańskim wpływom mogą odwieść rząd Iraku od spełnienia żądań parlamentu. Rozwiązaniem może być przejęcie przez misję NATO części działań Międzynarodowej Koalicji do walki z PI.

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PESCO: Two Years Later

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), launched by the EU in December 2017, has grown quickly. Yet, its role in developing European defence capacity may turn out to be marginal if a compromise is not found on the issue of the participation of non-EU states in PESCO projects and on the size of the European Defence Fund (EDF). PESCO’s importance may be diminished by advances by big, European defence initiatives led outside the EU’s legal framework.

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The Risks of Iran Rebuilding Its Nuclear Capabilities

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): Polish

Od lipca 2019 r. Iran zwiększa produkcję i stopień wzbogacenia uranu, wcześniej istotnie ograniczone przez umowę nuklearną z 2015 r. Jednocześnie domaga się od UE realizacji wynikających z niej zobowiązań ekonomicznych. Odrzuca też bezpośrednie rozmowy z USA, które wypowiedziały umowę wiosną 2018 r. i prowadzą politykę „maksymalnej presji”. Działania te były podejmowane i zapowiedziane niezależnie od kryzysu wywołanego zabiciem gen. Ghasema Solejmaniego przez USA. Niemniej nowy kontekst regionalny zwiększać może ryzyko scenariusza, w którym Iran ponownie zbliży się do progu technologicznego pozwalającego mu na budowę pierwszej głowicy.

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New Areas of Cooperation between Poland and South Korea

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

New South Korean investments in Poland in technologically advanced sectors such as electric mobility are a sign of the deepening strategic partnership formed in 2013 between the two countries. Poland’s plans for the development of its 5G network and modernisation of its armed forces, mean security and defence are also promising areas of cooperation. Under the deadlock in inter-Korean relations and negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea, the Polish experience in dialogue on the Korean Peninsula may gain importance and strengthen Poland’s position as a country co-shaping EU policy on this matter.

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Nowe dziedziny współpracy Polski z Koreą Południową

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): Polish

Przejawem pogłębienia istniejącego od 2013 r. partnerstwa strategicznego między Polską i Republiką Korei są nowe południowokoreańskie inwestycje w Polsce w zaawansowanych technologicznie sektorach, np. elektromobilności. Z uwagi na polskie plany rozwoju sieci 5G i modernizacji sił zbrojnych perspektywicznymi dziedzinami współpracy stają się także bezpieczeństwo i obronność. W warunkach impasu w stosunkach międzykoreańskich i w negocjacjach USA–KRLD polskie doświadczenia w dialogu nt. Półwyspu Koreańskiego mogą zyskać na znaczeniu i wzmocnić pozycję Polski jako współkształtującej politykę UE na tym odcinku.

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