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Between co-operation and membership. Sweden and Finland’s relations with NATO

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska,Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Sweden and Finland’s membership in NATO would significantly improve the level of security in the Baltic Sea region in the long-term by changing the politico-military imbalance that is currently in Russia’s favour. However, it is unlikely that Stockholm and Helsinki will change their non-alignment policy in the coming years. They will rather focus on enhancing politico-military co-operation with NATO. This has grown in importance to both countries in recent years in line with rising uncertainty in the region. The Swedish and Finnish wish for more substance in their military relations with NATO will however be met with increasing limitations as allied activity in the Baltic Sea region is focusing on collective defence and the two countries are not member states. // Despite the positive effect Sweden and Finland’s cooperation with NATO exerts on the region’s security, it also has negative implications. It does not eliminate the uncertainty about the scope of the two countries’ co-operation with the alliance in the case of a military conflict. It offers Stockholm an illusory sense of security, slowing down the pace of investments in defence; and for Helsinki it is rather an element of its deterrence policy towards Russia than a genuinely considered alternative.

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Miejsce UPA w Wielkiej Wojnie Ojczyźnianej. Dylematy polityki historycznej Ukrainy

Author(s): Tadeusz A. Olszański / Language(s): Polish

Głównym wyzwaniem dla ukraińskiej polityki tożsamości, w tym polityki historycznej, jest Rosja i rosyjskość. Wypracowanie równowagi między wyrazistą tożsamością państwowo-narodową a uczestnictwem w „świecie słowiańskim” warunkuje przetrwanie narodu ukraińskiego jako wspólnoty politycznej. Stosunki z Polską nie są źródłem podobnych wyzwań. Historyczny konflikt polsko-ukraiński został rozstrzygnięty i zamknięty; oba narody nie dzielą już tej samej ziemi ojczystej. Spory i okresowe konflikty dotyczą już wyłącznie ocen wydarzeń z bliższej lub dalszej przeszłości, nieraz bardzo bolesnych dla jednej lub obu stron. // Kluczowym problemem ukraińskiej polityki tożsamości po 1991 roku jest konieczność pogodzenia pamięci o Wielkiej Wojnie Ojczyźnianej, integrującej całe społeczeństwo bez względu na podziały i wspólnej dla Ukraińców, Rosjan i innych narodów b. ZSRR, z pamięcią o UPA, która wyraziście odróżnia ukraińską narrację wojenną od rosyjskiej, a jednocześnie jest akceptowana przez mniejszość społeczeństwa. Wydaje się to kwadraturą koła. Kijów jednak uważa, że musi połączyć te narracje tak, by nie zakwestionować żadnej z nich. // Pamięć o działalności UPA w oficjalnym dyskursie jest kształtowana w taki sposób, aby przedstawić tę formację jako bojowników o niepodległość, przeciwstawiających się „wszystkim okupantom Ukrainy”, jej ideologię odsunąć w cień, a zbrodnie na ludności cywilnej (nie tylko polskiej) minimalizować i relatywizować.

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Greater Europe. Putin's Vision of the European (Dis)integration

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

On several occasions since 2001 Vladimir Putin has raised the concept of ‘Greater Europe’, a partly-integrated common space comprising mainly Russia and the European Union. This concept has never been recast into a detailed political programme. While it has been championed as‘a Europe without dividing lines’, the concept would in practice permanently split Europe into two geopolitical blocs – the Western bloc of the European Union, with Germany in the dominant role, and the Eastern bloc, consisting of the emerging Eurasian Union, with Russia in a hegemonic position. In recent years Russia has undertaken a number of initiatives aimed at implementing some elements of the concept. However, most of these have failed to become reality. In this context, we should expect Russia’s policy to focus on implementing its priority project of Eurasian integration, based on the structures of the Customs Union/the Eurasian Union. The Greater Europe project, on the other hand, will be postponed until the time when, as Moscow believes, a weakened EU will be ready to accept Russian proposals.

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Ramzanistan. Russia's Chechen Problem

Author(s): Maciej Falkowski / Language(s): English

The political activity and growing independence of Chechnya’s leader Ramzan Kadyrov raises questions about his loyalty and the possibility of his openly renouncing his servitude to Moscow. Such a scenario seems unlikely because of the dependence of Kadyrov’s regime on Russia. He is burdened by his republic’s financial dependence, the stain of collaboration and the crimes committed on his own people, and so his regime cannot exist without Moscow’s support. However, Kadyrov’s dependence on Moscow and the apparent stability of the situation in Chechnya do not mean that a lasting peace has been established there. The current plan for governing the republic and the relationship between Moscow and Grozny is a temporary solution, based not on durable solutions, but on the situational convergence of the Kremlin and Kadyrov’s interests. A change of government in the Kremlin, or to an even greater degree a domestic crisis in Russia which weakens its position in the Caucasus, would mean the fall of Kadyrov’s regime, and the reactivation of pro-independence rhetoric in Chechnya.

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IMPROVING NATO STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS TERMINOLOGY

Author(s): Neville Bolt,Leonie Haiden / Language(s): English

The proposal for “StratCom Terminology Improvement” came from the Netherlands, one of the founding member of the NATO StratCom COE, and was approved by the Steering Committee in December 2017. The Terminology Working Group held consultative sessions throughout 2018. Terminology projects are usually concerned with making communication within a specialized language community more efficient and minimizing misunderstandings. Improving StratCom terminology aims to unify different NATO agencies in their endeavors but also increase efficiency in planning and executing military (communications) operations. NATO is a multi-national organization with civilian and military personnel, working toward political and military objectives. A common language (in the broader sense) is one of the key success factors for effective Strategic Communications.

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Fortress Kaliningrad. Ever closer to Moscow

Author(s): Maria Domańska,Szymon Kardaś,Marek Menkiszak,Jadwiga Rogoża,Andrzej Wilk,Iwona Wiśniewska,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

The Kaliningrad Oblast is a Russian exclave separated from the Russian Federation by the territories of Poland and Lithuania (both of which are EU and NATO member states) and of Belarus. It is the only part of Russia that has a border with Poland and Lithuania. Its geopolitical location makes Kaliningrad Oblast an important Russian outpost in the northern part of Central Europe. It is therefore strategically important for Russia, as well as for Poland and Lithuania and the entire region. For this reason, the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) considers monitoring the political, social, economic, energy, security and military situation in the Kaliningrad Oblast to be one of the priority areas of its analytic work.

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Twierdza Kaliningrad. Coraz bliżej Moskwy

Author(s): Maria Domańska,Szymon Kardaś,Marek Menkiszak,Jadwiga Rogoża,Andrzej Wilk,Iwona Wiśniewska,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): Polish

Obwód kaliningradzki jest rosyjską półeksklawą, oddzieloną od pozostałej części Federacji Rosyjskiej terytoriami Litwy i Polski (państw członkowskich UE i NATO) oraz Białorusi. Jest on jednocześnie jedyną częścią terytorium Rosji, z którą graniczą Polska i Litwa. Położenie geopolityczne czyni z obwodu kaliningradzkiego ważny wysunięty przyczółek rosyjski w północnej części Europy Środkowej. Z powyższych powodów obszar ten jest strategicznie ważny zarówno dla Rosji, jak i dla Polski i Litwy oraz dla całego otaczającego regionu. Z tego względu Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia (OSW) traktuje monitoring sytuacji politycznej, społecznej, gospodarczej, energetycznej, bezpieczeństwa i militarnej w obwodzie kaliningradzkim jako jeden z priorytetowych tematów swojej działalności analitycznej.

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Z Rosją za miedzą. Polityka bezpieczeństwa Finlandii

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): Polish

W wyniku rosyjskiej aneksji Krymu w regionie nordycko-bałtyckim nastąpił powrót do myślenia o bezpieczeństwie w kategoriach zdolności do obrony własnego terytorium. Doprowadziło to do wzrostu zainteresowania fińskim modelem obronnym opartym na powszechnym poborze, dużym potencjale rozwinięcia mobilizacyjnego i obronie terytorialnej. Przybyło też rozważań o potencjalnym członkostwie Finlandii w NATO i fińskiej percepcji Rosji. Warto więc przyjrzeć się bliżej polityce bezpieczeństwa i siłom zbrojnym Finlandii, biorąc pod uwagę specyfikę stosunków fińsko-rosyjskich.

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Indie w procesie reform: szanse dla Polski

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): Polish

Indie są dziś jednym ze wschodzących mocarstw, które będą wywierały rosnący wpływ na globalną gospodarkę i politykę. To siódmy największy kraj na świecie pod względem terytorium i drugi pod względem liczby mieszkańców (ponad 1,3 mld). To też siódma gospodarka w wartościach bezwzględnych i trzecia pod względem parytetu siły nabywczej (purchasing power parity, PPP). Z tempem wzrostu PKB powyżej 7% w 2016 r., rozwijała się najszybciej wśród państw G20, szybciej niż Chiny. To też potęga militarna, kraj mający broń jądrową, drugą największą armię i będący głównym na świecie importerem uzbrojenia. To w końcu największa ludnościowo demokracja świata.

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U.S. Military Presence in Central and Eastern Europe: Consequences for NATO Strategic Adaptation, Deterrence and Allied Solidarity

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

In the wake of the Ukraine conflict and Russian hostility towards NATO, the United States has proven to be the most resolute and capable Ally of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) states. The U.S. has been striving to provide leadership for the Alliance and invigorate other members to act, while implementing deterrence and reassurance measures on faster and on bigger scale than other countries. U.S. activities in CEE have included persistent rotational presence of small land forces, air and naval deployments to the region, intense training and exercises, unprecedented pre-positioning of heavy armour in the region, and improvements to local infrastructure. The U.S. has acted both bilaterally and multilaterally, as well as within the framework of NATO’s joint Readiness Action Plan (RAP). U.S. actions have been received very warmly among CEE countries, which are concerned about Russia’s behaviour and especially interested in the support and presence of the leading and most powerful member of the Alliance. Nevertheless, for Poland and the Baltic States, the permanent basing of Allied combat forces is a priority. It is necessary to send a strong political signal to Moscow, and prove that there are no second-class security guarantees for new NATO members. The intention is also to deny Russia hopes of achieving a quick victory and presenting the U.S. and the Alliance with a fait accompli. At the very least, small permanent forces would ensure that even a successful attack against CEE states would automatically result in a costly conflict with the U.S. and NATO. At the other end of the scale, bigger deployments would slow down an enemy offensive and buy time for reinforcements to arrive.

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Nuclear-Backed “Little Green Men:” Nuclear Messaging in the Ukraine Crisis

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec / Language(s): English

Russia’s aggressive actions against Ukraine have exposed the challenge of Moscow’s approach to conflict. The element most highlighted is its use of “hybrid warfare,” epitomised by the so-called “little green men”—Russian soldiers albeit without insignia who played an instrumental role in the annexation of Crimea. These “little green men” were used in conjunction with other hybrid tactics such as the covert engagement of Russian forces on the ground, economic pressure, and an unprecedented disinformation campaign. The hybrid warfare tools were, however, not used alone. The credibility and effectiveness of this hybrid warfare campaign was backed up by Russia’s potential to use its full spectrum of military capabilities, including conventional and nuclear forces. Russian tactics that exploited ambiguity of intent and attribution have been surprising and confusing, and they have created difficulties for NATO, which is determined to effectively address them.

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Is a New Cold War Inevitable? Central European Views on Rebuilding Trust in the Euro-Atlantic Region

Author(s): Martina Heranová,Zdzisław Lachowski,Raimonds Rublovskis / Language(s): English

When the idea to invite Central European experts to share their views on overcoming the acute deficit of trust in the relationship between the West and Russia first originated in early 2014, there was still some hope that the Ukraine crisis would not mark the beginning of a new period of confrontation in Europe. With that in mind, PISM asked the authors not only to comment on the state of the relationship with Russia but also to assess to what extent various proposals (including Carnegie’s Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative papers and the 2013 report by U.S., Russian and European experts, “Building Mutual Security in the Euro-Atlantic Region”) regarding military confidence building and arms control dialogue with Russia would advance the security of Central European countries. However, as the situation deteriorated with Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its support for eastern Ukraine separatists, the focus inevitably had to turn from dealing with the symptoms (mutual mistrust) to addressing the root causes of the spat between Russia and the West, which now threatens the very foundations of the European security system. Previous approaches to mending the relationship, such as those focused on finding areas of cooperation based on common interests (e.g., dealing with terrorism or the Iranian nuclear programme), were unlikely to be sufficient.

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Russian Civilian Outreach and Information Operations in Syria

Author(s): Jan Daniel,Dominik Presl / Language(s): English

The large-scale Russian military intervention in Syria entered its seventh year in 2021. Major military operations seem to be halted for now and the Syrian government, together with its allies, has been able to reconquer significant portions of the country’s territory. Nevertheless, the Syrian territory continues to be fragmented and the Syrian government faces a wide range of challenges, from the collapsing economy to simmering local opposition in certain regions. Russian involvement in the conflict, and in the country more broadly, is far from over and it is still requested by the Syrian regime. Even though Russia might be involved in various power-struggles inside the Syrian governmental apparatus and economic structures and there are several important differences between Russian and Syrian visions of the future political development, the dependence of the Syrian government on Russian support means that its presence in the country is, thus far, secured.

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ZAPAD 2021 Communication analysis: messages, narratives, (dis)information

Author(s): Valeriy Akimenko,Daivis Petraitis,Viktoras Daukšas,Balys Liubinavičius / Language(s): English

On 10-16 September 2021, Russia conducted the formal part of ZAPAD 2021, one in a cycle of annual military exercises which represent the culmination of training by the Russian Federation Armed Forces in a given year. As ‘Zapad’ (the Russian word for ‘west’) suggests, the exercise is centred on what Russia calls the Western strategic sector or ‘direction’. ZAPAD 2021 included Belarus. Accordingly, it was termed ‘a joint strategic exercise’, primarily to emphasise the participation of Belarus as well as that of the Russia-controlled Collective Security Treaty Organisation. ZAPAD 2021 was preceded by weeks of preparatory and associated exercises, and, as repeatedly emphasised by Russia, involved as many as 200,000 troops, drawn predominantly from Russia. ZAPAD 2021 included a powerful communication campaign in the form of messages and narratives, which this study identifies, explores, and explains. This study consists of two separate but interconnected parts: Part I looks at the exercise from the perspective of what the exercise signalled, both explicitly and implicitly. It deconstructs and groups these messages and narratives.

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Russian Media Landscape: Structures, Mechanisms, and Technologies of Information Operations

Author(s): Andrey Kuzichkin,Monika Izandra Hanley / Language(s): English

Various reports that have been published by the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence contain detailed analyses of Russian information influence activities, focusing mainly on technology and software. The present study contains a brief analysis of the political, financial, and legislative influence brought to bear on the Russian media environment, making it possible for the Kremlin to influence opinion domestically and to conduct special media operations against Western countries and their allies. This report is devoted to deep aspects of Russian information influence activities that have rarely been the subject of detailed studies. It is an analysis of the structure created by the Russian state to control the flow of information in the paradigm of a ‘hybrid war’ against democratic countries. The paper is presented in three parts: In the section MECHANISMS of STATE CONTROL over the MEDIA in RUSSIA, we show how control over the Russian media space has been consolidated into the hands of a few powerful individuals through transfer of ownership and mandated changes, and provide data on mergers and acquisitions involving Russia’s largest media assets and their subordination to the state. We examine the mechanisms of political influence on information producers by means of nonprofit structures and a system of personnel appointments. We provide data on state financing of Russia’s information policy at the federal and regional levels. We discuss examples of the involvement of Russian special services in state information policy, drawing on the experience of the author and on academic research.

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Romanian Military Thinking International Scientific Conference Proceedings

Author(s): Journal Romanian Military Thinking / Language(s): English

The Romanian Military Thinking International Doctrinal Conference was organised by the Defence Staff, on the occasion of the 163rd anniversary of the Defence Staff and the 24th edition of the Romanian Military Thinking Journal Awards.

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Focused on Survival: The Belarusian Political and Business Elite Post-2020

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński,Piotr Żochowski / Language(s): English

The rigged presidential election in August 2020 and the violent pacification of opposition protests have provoked a deep political crisis in Belarus. This also directly affected the situation of the Belarusian political elite and business circles. The processes which were triggered at that time have resulted in a shift in the balance of power in Lukashenka’s inner circle, which in turn has significantly affected the Belarusian domestic and foreign policy model, the relations between the authorities and citizens, and the conditions for doing business.

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Israel’s Palestinian Challenges: The State’s Identity, a Leadership Crisis and the “new” Middle East

Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English

The conflict with the Palestinian side is a long‑term existential challenge for Israel. It plays out on four levels: territory; population; national aspirations and identity; security. Each of them generates conditions that make a resolution of the dispute or its absence decisive for the future character of this state in terms of its ethnicity (will the majority of the population still be Jewish?) and political system (will it remain a democracy?), as well as its external and internal security. At the same time, the Palestinian question remains a matter of concern for the international community – particularly public opinion – which makes it a major issue in Israel’s international relations.

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The Beijing-Moscow Axis. The Foundations of an Asymmetric Alliance

Author(s): Michał Bogusz,Jakub Jakóbowski,Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

Never in history have relations between Moscow and Beijing been as close and warm as they are today. This rapprochement has been produced by three decades of consistent efforts by the political leaderships of Russia and China to strengthen mutual ties and deepen their cooperation in politics, military affairs, economy and ideology. The relationship that has emerged can be called an informal alliance. This alliance is based on the deep conviction shared by the Chinese and Russian ruling elites of the fundamental coincidence of their strategic interests and the ideological proximity between their authoritarian regimes. Hence, the nature of this alliance goes well beyond mere tactical expediency, even if it is not devoid of internal tensions.

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The Gordian Knot of the Caucasus. The Conflict Over Nagorno-Karabakh

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

The conflict over the state affiliation of Nagorno‑Karabakh, which has been ongoing since 1987 (and led to full‑scale war in 1992–94) has determined Armenia and Azerbaijan’s post‑Soviet history. It remains the greatest security challenge for both states, and still has a serious impact on their entire foreign and domestic policies. In both states the conflict has brought political elites to power who in the case of Armenia ruled the state until 2018, and in the case of Azerbaijan are still in power, and who have pre‑determined the homogenous nature of both Azerbaijan’s and Armenia’s societies. This latter is a result of mass expulsions and forced migrations, as well as intensive propaganda presented by both governments, who have exploited the struggle for Nagorno‑Karabakh in their state‑building narratives and have deliberately cultivated the images of their mutual enemy.

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