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Intervjui (2000-2001)

Author(s): Gordana Stojanović,Grujica Spasović,Zoran Lučić ,Jovanka Matić,Borka Pavićević,Leposava Karamarković,Ljubodrag Stojadinović,Gordana Suša,Aleksandar Nenadović,Mirko Đorđević,Mihajlo Mihajlov,Nikola Barović,Lazar Stojanović,Veran Matić,Freimut Duve,Milanka Šaponja-Hadžić,Čedomir Čupić,Jovica Trkulja,Snežana S. Đorđević,Žarko Trebješanin,Vukašin Pavlović,Snježana Milivojević,Alija Halilović,Želimir Bojović / Language(s): Bosnian,Croatian,Serbian Publication Year: 0

Interviews by Želimir Bojević, with: 1. Halilović, Alija 2. Stojanović, Gordana 3. Spasović, Grujica 4. Lučić , Zoran 5. Matić, Jovanka 6. Pavićević, Borka 7. Karamarković, Leposava 8. Stojadinović, Ljubodrag 9. Suša, Gordana 10. Nenadović, Aleksandar 11. Đorđević, Mirko 12. Mihajlov, Mihajlo 13. Barović, Nikola 14. Stojanović, Lazar 15. Matić, Veran 16. Duve, Freimut 17. Šaponja-Hadžić, Milanka 18. Čupić, Čedomir 19. Trkulja, Jovica 20. Đorđević, Snežana 21. Trebješanin, Žarko 22. Pavlović, Vukašin 23. Milivojević, Snježana

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Konflikty w Afryce i Jemenie w 2018 r. – ekspansja dżihadystów a wzrost intensywności i umiędzynarodowienia

Author(s): Kamila Pronińska / Language(s): Polish Publication Year: 0

The aim of this article is to analyze the conflicts which were ongoing in 2018,in Yemen and Africa. The selection of armed conflicts was made on the basis ofthree main criteria: intensity, i.e. the scale of battle-deaths; internationalization, i.e.military involvement of third countries; the activities of jihadist groups. The articlediscusses armed conflicts in the Sahel region and the Lake Chad, in Libya, Somalia,and Yemen. As part of the Strategic Yearbook series that reviews current armedconflicts, this study is a continuation of the analyses from previous years. Its purposeis to explore the conditions and dynamics of the 2018 armed conflicts and theirimplications for international security. It explains the reasons of their increasingintensity and internationalization. The expansion of jihadist groups, especiallythose related to IS (Islamic State of Iraq and Levant, the so called Islamic State) orAl-Qaeda (AQ), is perceived as an important factor in this regard. It is argued thatthe activity of armed jihadist groups leads also to greater military involvement ofWestern states.

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Energia i klimat – współczesne trendy i wyzwania bezpieczeństwa energetycznego

Author(s): Kamila Pronińska / Language(s): Polish Publication Year: 0

The article offers an analysis of the most important energy market trends from theperspective of their importance for energy security and climate change. The energyand climate systems are two areas of human activity strongly influencing each other.On the one hand, the way energy is produced and consumed influences the globalclimate system, on the other hand, climate policy impacts energy security. The articletherefore focuses on the directions and dynamics of changes taking place in theenergy sector and which are of particular importance for global reductions of CO2emissions. It gives an insight into the policies of the world’s largest consumers offossil fuels and into the extent to which their activities favour energy transformation.This analysis critically assesses the feasibility of achieving the global climate policytargets set in 2015 in Paris. Especially importantly for the Strategic Yearbook, the2018 events and current trends serve as points of reference: the article outlines theconditions and results of climate negotiations of COP24 held in Poland and thenewest IPCC report on Global Warming of 1.5°C. An analysis of demand-supplytrends, recent trends in the area of CO2 emissions as well as current events leads toconclusions concerning some long-term challenges for energy and climate security.

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Atitudini şI Acţiuni Ale Militarilor Români Din Basarabia în Contextul Evacuării Teritoriului Cedat îN Anul 1940

Author(s): Ion Giurcă,Ciprian Antonio Nicoară / Language(s): Romanian Publication Year: 0

Anul 1940 a marcat apogeul efectelor politicii dezas- truoase duse pe plan intern şi extern de către guvernele impuse de regele Carol al II-lea, începând cu 10 februarie 1938. Între 26 iunie şi 7 septembrie 1940, România s-a aflat la cheremul puterilor europene care hotărau, prin acţiuni politice, diplomatice şi militare, soarta unui continent scăpat de sub controlul democraţiilor lumii (SUA, Franţa, Marea Britanie), hipnotizate parcă de personalitatea şi acţiunea unor lideri ai forţelor extremiste, naziste, fasciste şi comuniste.

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Historiografski radovi o Bosni i Hercegovini u vrijeme austrougarske uprave (1878–1918) objavljeni u zemlji u vremenskom okviru od 2001. do 2017. godine

Author(s): Zijad Šehić / Language(s): Bosnian,Croatian,Serbian Publication Year: 0

Based on the analysis and evaluation of the characteristics of historical science in Bosnia and Herzegovina over the period considered, several important facts need to be pointed out. The aggression against Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1992 had profound consequences on the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina's historiography and in its neighbourhood, and as a consequence there is an increased interest in the past and in seeking answers to current events in the past. Historical sciences have largely become an instrument of current policies, so little attention is paid to critical analyses of historical sources and their objective evaluation and interpretation. New interpretations of historical processes, while removing credible facts, have greatly influenced the formation of new approaches to historiography. Historiographic works are valued differently in Bosnia and Herzegovina, although many facts have been known before, so it is impossible to give a singular assessment of Bosnia and Herzegovina's historiography which considers the period of Austro-Hungarian rule in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Detailed insight into the structure of published historiographical works in Bosnia and Herzegovina shows that the treatment of certain aspects of Bosnia and Herzegovina's past is dominated by discussions, articles and short stories of unequal quality and scientific scope, as well as the lack of extensive, scientifically based studies, which are a prerequisite for the creation of historiographic syntheses. Although significant results have been achieved in Bosnian-Herzegovinian historiography in the study of political, economic and cultural developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina during the Austro-Hungarian period, there are several issues that have been neglected in historical science: the writing of a voluminous history of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the publication of source material of different provenance and thematic representation, study of population migration from 1878 to 1918, consideration of the economy and society of Bosnia and Herzegovina during the Austro-Hungarian rule of 1878-1918, review of socio-economic trends during the First World War, as well as depictions of Bosnia and Herzegovina in world travel literature.

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The Impact of the Conflict in Ukraine on the Development of the Higher University Military Education Process – Adapting Maritime Operational Art to the Dynamics of Modern Military Actions

Author(s): Lucian Valeriu SCIPANOV / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Observing the evolution of military actions in the Ukraine conflict, one feels the need to capitalise on the lessons identified as a result of the innovative ways of applying the principles of military art, in the conditions of real war. Thus, within this approach, I set out to identify how the evolution of the conflict in Ukraine influenced military art in general. In essence, this approach is a corollary of the results obtained as a personal contribution to the development of knowledge in the field of military sciences. Analysing the existing situation, following evaluations of the potential national response capabilities in the event of an armed conflict in the vicinity of the Black Sea, I identified didactic ways to update the doctrinal contents. The didactic approach was based on the handiest research validation tool, the war game, by testing some tactical scenarios, experienced in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. From a didactic point of view, the result was useful for updating the analytical programs in the master’s degree programs, however, the benefit from this research comes from the action-structural field, regarding the ways of responding in the maritime environment with existing capabilities or identifying the capability requirements, emphasising the importance of military services and branches cooperation during the joint coastal defence operation.

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The role of the artificial intelligence in Surveillance and Reconnaissance

Author(s): Boris Zarkov / Language(s): English,Bulgarian Publication Year: 0

The current report examines the place of artificial intelligence and its level of development in the field of OSINT, as well as the advantages, disadvantages and dangers associated with it. The report begins with an introductory statement aimed at those unfamiliar with the concept of OSINT and continues with an introduction to its functions, current use, and later its advantages, disadvantages, and dangers. This report does not claim to be exhaustive on the subject and aims only to present the current state of artificial intelligence in the specific field.

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SEARCHING FOR POLITICAL EFFECTIVENESS: THE STRATEGIES BEHIND THE MILITARY UNIFICATION OF JAPAN

Author(s): DRĂGOIANU Ioana-Flavia / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Over the course of millennia power laid in the hands of generals and rulers and their ability to act – but so did their downfalls. Thus, the first part of this presentation will be focused on the importance of strategy and tactics in any kind of rule. Furthermore, Japanese warfare will be anatomized – how the samurai became elite warriors, weaponry, the transition of samurai warfare during the Sengoku Period and its importance to the fight for supremacy between the Japanese Clans. The goal of this paper is to unravel the conundrums of The Age of War from a political frame of reference, under three powerful influences – Oda Nobunaga, Toyotomi Hideyoshi and Tokugawa Ieyasu. The discussion will then shift towards analyzing the impetus that put in motion their plans and the ways they achieved power, their brilliant strategies and their undoing, whilst using the knowledge regarding Political Science and International Relations to determine the political legacy of their actions.

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THE REGIME AND EFFECTIVENESS OF 2022 ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AGAINST THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Author(s): Cristian Băhnăreanu / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

In the early 2022, the world economy is recovering from the decline caused by Covid-19 pandemic –the central banks being prepared to gradually withdraw fiscal and monetary support. The Russian military’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions have reversed this trend and risks and uncertainty have suddenly returned amid rising energy, food and other important commodity prices, inflationary pressures, deterioration in financial and labor market conditions. This paper outlines the general framework of economic sanctions, reviews the sanctions adopted by the international community against Russia in the first 100 days of brutal, unjustified and unprovoked illegal military aggression against Ukraine, and identifies their effectiveness and impact on Russia’s economic and financial system.

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THE IMPACT OF THE UKRAINIAN REFUGEE WAVE ON REGIONAL SECURITY. RISK ASSESSMENT AND EVOLVING SCENARIOS

Author(s): Teodora-Ioana MORARU / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

In today’s society, instability and conflict are growing more prevalent, with citizens fearing for what is next, for what some state actor might do, and its impact on our lives and our children. The ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict presents a gloomy scenario in which all our beliefs, as European citizens, seem only to survive as glimpses of hope. The probability of such an impactful conflict and the unlikely military conventionalism related to it makes every citizen of any European country to doubt the safety net in which we thought to be, so far. The most devastating effect, specific and real at this moment, of the near conflict in Europe is an economic one since a new refugee wave threatens to destabilize all societal equilibrium. On the other side of the barricade, Russia's position is mainly due to the internal challenges it faces, as its economy is destabilized by United States sanctions. Low oil prices at the end of the second decade of the 21st century is causing serious economic problems in the Russian Federation. Thus, the state faces a rather weak demographic outlook in the future, which is why it is looking for solutions for expansion and evolution, both globally and as a major regional player.

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REFUGEES FROM UKRAINE. IS THERE A CASE FOR STRATEGIC ENGINEERED DISPLACEMENT?

Author(s): Alexandra SARCINSCHI / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The purpose of this paper is to provide a framework for analyzing the current refugee flow from Ukraine in a manner that goes beyond statistics or humanitarian law towards intentionality and strategic games. The author will use Kelly M. Greenhill’s model of strategic engineered migration to investigate the case of refugees from Ukraine in order to assess the potential intention of Russia to use large masses of displaced people, caused by the illegal and unprovoked war, to achieve some hidden goals apart from the stated ones. The paper is built, first of all, on analyzing the theoretical framework focused on the types of strategic engineered migration, the evolution of the refugee flow, the humanitarian crisis and the implications for transit and destination countries. Also, there will be comparisons with the Russian intervention in the Syrian civil war and the case of the crisis caused by Belarus on its borders with Latvia, Lithuania and Poland as illustrative for the use of refugees and migrants by a state actor in order to achieve specific political goals. In the last section, the author will investigate the opportunity to translate the case of war refugees into the model initially dedicated to the broader issue of migration, and, finally, will use it to the present case of refugees from Ukraine.

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Subsaharská Afrika v české zahraniční politice: Nová koncepce, obnovení odboru a výzvy předsednictví EU

Author(s): Ondřej Horký / Language(s): Czech Publication Year: 0

I v roce 2008 zůstal region subsaharské Afriky na okraji politického a hospodářského zájmu České republiky. Ministerstvo zahraničních věcí nevnímá region jako prioritu, ale jako nezbytnou agendu ČZP. Zejména v reakci na připravované české předsednictví Evropské unie v prvním pololetí roku 2009, ale také na možnost přehodnocení vztahů se vzdálenějšími teritorii po začlenění České republiky do evropských a transatlantických struktur, však pozornost k subsaharské Africe posílila jak na institucionální, tak i na koncepční úrovni. To z ní mezi ostatními regiony tvoří výjimku.

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Sub-Saharan Africa in the Czech Foreign Policy

Author(s): Ondřej Horký / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The gap between the relevance of Sub-Saharan Africa in the Czech foreign policy and its relevance in EU external relations is larger than that of any other region of the world. Sub-Saharan Africa (here also abbreviated to ‘Africa’ if not specified other-wise) maintains tight political, military and economic relations with its former colonizers among the ‘old’ member states of the European Union, and it remains the primary target of the EU development policy. In contrast to that, its relative importance in the bilateral relations with the Czech Republic, including the number of diplomatic missions and priority countries of development cooperation, has been steadily decreasing.

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Bezpečnostní rozměr české zahraniční politiky

Author(s): Vít Střítecký / Language(s): Czech Publication Year: 0

Podobně jako v roce 2010 se agenda bezpečnostní politiky nedostávala do popředí politických střetů. Žádné z bezpečnostních témat dlouhodobě nedominovalo mediálnímu diskurzu a nestalo se významnou součástí vnitropolitického soupeření. Na druhou stranu však v roce 2011 došlo k diskusím a posunům v rámci některých témat, jež budou pro českou bezpečnostní politiku klíčová v následujících letech. V této souvislosti je třeba zmínit otázku dostavby Temelína, která v sobě potenciálně kombinuje ekonomický a bezpečnostní rozměr, či např. diskusi o budoucnosti českého nadzvukového letectva po konci pronájmu gripenů v roce 2014. Součástí bezpečnostní agendy však byla také prozatím spíše nezpolitizovaná meziresortní diskuse o české účasti v Afghánistánu po konci mise ISAF. Z pragmatického vnitropolitického hlediska je konečné rozhodnutí ještě poměrně vzdálené, nicméně vzhledem k minulým zkušenostem lze předpokládat, že k politizaci tématu dojde. K neustále se navracejícím tématům také patří některé zbrojní zakázky, přičemž v posledních letech jsou to především letouny L-159 mající v zásadě zápornou cenu a dopravní vojenské letouny CASA, které ani v roce 2011 nemohly být zařazeny do arzenálu AČR a jejích spojenců.

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Bezpečnostní rozměr české zahraniční politiky

Author(s): Jan Eichler,Ondřej Ditrych / Language(s): Czech Publication Year: 0

Proces tvorby české zahraniční politiky v oblasti obrany a bezpečnosti byl v roce 2014 poznamenán především destabilizací východní Evropy v důsledku konfliktu na Ukrajině a bezprostřední reakcí a dalšími adaptivními opatřeními ze strany NATO, která spočívala zejména v (re)militarizaci střední a východní Evropy s cílem zvýšit alianční deterenční potenciál. Česká republika tento trend podporovala, v bezpečnostní komunitě se nicméně rozpoutala debata o českém příspěvku k novým adaptivním opatřením a schopnosti dostát aliančním závazkům. Zároveň pokračoval trend zvyšování české účasti v misích EU a OSN, byť armádní kapacity byly vázány i přislíbeným nasazením v NATO Response Force (NRF) a účastí na rostoucím počtu aliančních cvičení v regionu. Bezpečnost a obrana se staly bezprecedentním tématem politické a veřejné diskuse; tématem vysoce politizovaným a zároveň polarizačním v důsledku propojení s antisystémovým diskurzem části aktérů veřejné diskuse a s vysokou mírou pravděpodobnosti rovněž působením ruské informační operace.

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Velká Británie v české zahraniční politice

Author(s): Barbora Fialová,Zuzana Kasáková / Language(s): Czech Publication Year: 0

Vzájemné vztahy České republiky a Spojeného království Velké Británie a Severního Irska (Velké Británie) byly v roce 2014 ovlivněny vnitropolitickým vývojem obou zemí na jedné straně a událostmi na evropské úrovni na straně druhé. V České republice se po dlouhých jednáních chopila vlády koalice ČSSD, KDU-ČSL a ANO 2011, která ve svém programovém prohlášení formulovala změny v zahraničněpolitickém směřování země, zejména v rámci EU. Rok 2014 se tak nesl v duchu příprav koncepce české zahraniční politiky a koncepce působení České republiky v Evropské unii.

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Subsaharská Afrika v české zahraniční politice v roce 2009: Z evropského výsluní zpět na okraj domácího zájmu

Author(s): Ondřej Horký / Language(s): Czech Publication Year: 0

Rok 2008 v české zahraniční politice vůči subsaharské Africe charakterizovaly obnovení Odboru států subsaharské Afriky, schválení koncepce Příprava strategické debaty o přístupu ČR k Africe vládním Výborem pro Evropskou unii a intenzivní příprava na předsednictví v Radě Evropské unie. Zvýšenou aktivitu v okrajové oblasti zahraničněpolitického zájmu motivovalo také očekávání od Evropské unie, pro kterou subsaharská Afrika (dále též jen Afrika) představuje jednu z priorit zaměření vnějších vztahů. Loňská analýza si proto závěrem položila otázku, zda „posílená vůle k přímému či nepřímému angažmá v regionu vydrží i v období po skončení předsednictví, kdy se Česká republika ztratí z hledáčku evropských institucí i ostatních členských zemí“.

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Bezpečnostní rozměr české zahraniční politiky

Author(s): Ondřej Ditrych,Jan Eichler / Language(s): Czech Publication Year: 0

Uplynulý rok se v oblasti bezpečnostního a obranného rozměru české zahraniční politiky nesl zejména v duchu adaptace na pociťovanou proměnu bezpečnostního prostředí v souvislosti s ukrajinskou krizí a nově i výrazně sekuritizovanou problematikou utečenectví a nekontrolovaného tranzitu občanů cizích států přes území ČR. Na jedné straně tak mohl pokračovat trend k spíše pasivně konstruktivní tvorbě a realizaci české zahraniční politiky ve vztahu k jejímu okolí. Na straně druhé, normalizace, tedy široké přijetí představy o výjimečnosti současné bezpečnostní situace a nutnosti přijímat adekvátní, výjimečná opatření, přinesla nová rizika.

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Velká Británie v české zahraniční politice

Author(s): Zuzana Kasáková / Language(s): Czech Publication Year: 0

Vzájemné vztahy Spojeného království Velké Británie a Severního Irska (Velká Británie) a České republiky probíhaly i v roce 2015 na velmi dobré úrovni. Důležitým kontextem oboustranných vztahů byla otázka směřování evropské integrace a zejména role Velké Británie v Evropské unii, která rezonovala především v souvislosti se všeobecnými volbami do Dolní sněmovny britského parlamentu, jež se konaly na počátku května 2015. Otázkou, které věnovaly pozornost všechny země EU včetně České republiky, bylo referendum o setrvání V. Británie v Unii, jehož uspořádání slíbil předseda Konzervativní strany David Cameron v roce 2013 v případě, že jeho strana ve volbách zvítězí a sestaví vládu. Když se navzdory předvolebním průzkumům konzervativcům podařilo získat ve volbách většinu a sestavit jednobarevnou vládu, zahájil v kontextu slíbeného referenda její předseda debatu o možných reformách Evropské unie. Přestože přesné datum konání referenda nebylo během roku 2015 stanoveno, byly na podzim odstartovány kampaně odpůrců i zastánců britského členství v EU.

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THE POST-YUGOSLAV BALKANS IN THE IDEOLOGICAL WAR BETWEEN RUSSIA AND NATO

Author(s): Darina Grigorova / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The paper is focused on the ideological frame of Russian Post-Soviet Foreign Policy in the Balkans. Is there any Russian soft power? In a short introduction, the main ideological and geopolitical tendencies in the presentday Balkans are outlined. In the first part of the paper, we describe the geopolitical reality of the Balkans today and Russian positions in it. In the second and the third part of the paper, we analyze the content and the transformation of the Russian idea/concept ‘Russkiy mir’ and geopolitical, ideological and spiritual consequences of that transformation. The fourth part of the paper describes the current state of relations between NATO and Serbia 20 years after the bombing of the FR Yugoslavia in the context of the geopolitical competition of old and new factors in world politics. The conclusion highlights the main geopolitical and spiritual challenges of some Balkan Orthodox peoples and the possible role of Russia in the Balkans.

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