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ASSESSING ROMANIA'S SOCIETAL SECURITY USING COMPLEXITY METHODOLOGY

Author(s): Ioan Crăciun,Octavian Victor Mihail Dima / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Societal security, is an extremely important domain of Romania’s contemporary security which needs to be reassessed and revaluated by using new analytical methodologies. This article aims at evaluating Romania’s societal security using the societal trends to 2030 identified by RAND Europe in its project “An Analysis of Global Societal Trends to 2030 and their Impact on the EU”. The research will focus on the long term policy challanges Romania should prioritise for the next decade and boyound considering five main societal trends: the rise of a new global middle class, the growing and ageing population, employment and the changing labour market, evolving patterns and impacts of migration, connected societies and empowered individuals.

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IS THERE A THREAT OF NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE?

Author(s): Lukáš Visingr,Miroslav Mareš / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Central and Eastern Europe, taking into account the potential impact of the contemporary crisis in Ukraine. The authors start by describing the historical attempts made by Central and East European countries to obtain nuclear weapons during the Cold War and the post-Cold War period. The main focus is on current trends, including a prediction of possible future developments. The policies of state as well as non-state actors are considered, including nationalist calls for nuclear armament. The authors conclude that the risk of proliferation in this region should not be overestimated; equally, however, certain ‘early warning signals’ should be not ignored.

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Accrual Accounting in the Army of Great Britain - Clarity, Transparency, and Accounting Data Analysis Options

Author(s): Miroslav Krč,Vladimír Golik,Jana Vodáková / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The article "Accrual accounting in the Great Britain army - clarity, transparency, and easy accounting data analyze" analyzes the application of the accrual accounting and resulting consequences of the introduction of resource accounting and budgeting in the Great Britain Armed Forces. The analysis was based on the selected financial statements: Summary of Resource Outturn; Operating Cost Statement, Balance sheet. The horizontal analysis was used to analyze trends of the changes on the annually managed expenditure limits during the period of RAB implementation. The Great Britain army was monitored as a business. Analyzed reports show data for the current and last year. Using data from individual years there was calculated the increase in absolute terms and as well as in percentage terms (growth rate). The original absolute data from financial statements are monitored in certain contexts. Analysis of the trends examined the changes of absolute indicators over time. Change is expressed in percentage or index. How many units of the item has changed over time? (Absolute change) and how many percent of the item has changed over time? (Percentage change). In the horizontal analysis we measured the development of selected items of expenditure limits and capital resources (Resource / Capital DEL) and Annually managed expenditure (AME).

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MANAGING ARMED CONFLICT AND THE USE OF ARMS EMBARGOES

Author(s): Martin Chovančík / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The array of instruments in the toolbox of the international community capable of exerting palpable influence on the course of armed conflicts is far smaller than we would wish. However, in the latter half of the 20th century and especially in its last decade the toolbox was expanded and upgraded to cope with the evolving challenges of armed violence and international responsibility. Instruments available to the international community in the 21st century have also become more tailored and their role is therefore more specific than in the past.

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Space forces and the purpose of excuse for the militarization of outer space: an international crime against peace

Author(s): Adnan Jashari,Stefani Stojchevska,Vedije Ratkoceri / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Triggered by the recent establishment of the U.S. Space Force, the concept of developing national space forces raises many questions concerning peace and humanity, which simultaneously contradict the guarantee of peace and safety. It is generally assumed that the militarization of outer space manifested by space forces would represent a symbol of the threatening power and dominance of space-faring nations. Considering outer space as a contemporary war zone, however, would legally represent a violation of the Outer Space Treaty, even though the treaty itself contains major loopholes legally allowing hostile extraterrestrial activities. The main purpose of this paper is to legally analyze the militarization of outer space from two contrasting perspectives: national security versus international crime against peace, where national predispositions that lead to the initiation of extraterrestrial wars of aggression are recognized as international crimes against peace, meaning that space forces would likely run afoul of international space law.

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OBRAZOVANJE PRVE NARODNE VLADE NA TREĆEM ZASJEDANJU ZAVNOBIH-A PREDSTAVLJA DOVRŠETAK KONSTITUCIJE DRŽAVNE VLASTI FEDERALNE BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE

Author(s): Mirko Pejanović / Language(s): Bosnian,Croatian,Serbian Publication Year: 0

Formation of democratic government in Bosnia and Herzegovina was developing together with formation and constitution of democratic Federal Yugoslavia. In the first half of 1945, the whole Bosnia and Herzegovina was liberated together with its capital Sarajevo on April the 6th in 1945. This created a military and political conditions for holding the Third assemblage of ZAVNOBiH on April 26, 27 and 28, 1945. Between the period of the Second assemblage of ZAVNOBiH in July 1944 in Sanski Most and the Third assemblage, National liberation movement achieved new successes in the development of new democratic people’s government. National liberation committees have firmed their position and role in the entire Bosnia and Herzegovina. According to decisions of ZAVNOBiH Presidency, various departments were formed such are state department for industry, public transport, education, social issues and other areas. These departments will become cores of ministries that will be formed in the frame of the First National Government of Bosnia and Herzegovina. This is how the formation of executive and administrative authority in Federal Bosnia and Herzegovina. General activities within the formation of democratic people’s government in Federal Bosnia and Herzegovina has brought the possibility to form the first National (People’s) Government of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In full unity and enthusiasm within achievements of National liberation war, representatives of the Third assemblage of ZAVNOBiH ojn the first day have reached decision on transformation of ZAVNOBiH to the National (People’s) Assembly as the highest body of people’s representation and as the highest body of legislative government. On the second day, National (People’s) Assembly brought a Law on people’s Government of Bosnia and Herzegovina. According to this Law, National (People’s) Government is supreme, executive and command body of state government of Federal Bosnia and Herzegovina. This act has completed the formation of democratic people’s government in people’s Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina. With formation of People’s Government of Bosnia and Herzegovina, activities of all 12 ministries are combined in order to execute politics that are concluded by ZAVNOBiH and for the interest of people who fought for their freedom.

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Perception, Cognitive Dissonance and Nuclear Deterrence in the Information Age, Possible Implications for the Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture in the Context of a New NATO Strategic Concept

Author(s): Olga Raluca CHIRIAC / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The February 2022 military aggression on Ukraine has sent shock waves across European capitals as well as across the Atlantic. This “new normal”, namely a conventional war in twenty-first century Europe, is both hard to process and inherently ominous as to the future of the European security architecture and strategic stability on the continent. The aim of the article is to analyse the combined effects of technological advances in information/computing technologies and human cognition on strategic choices such as nuclear deterrence strategies. The paper is looking to address the proposed research questions through a cognitive psychology lens, with a particular focus on perception and cognitive dissonance. The plasticity of both the geopolitical environment and the information space present the optimal conditions for propagation of cognitive errors in human decision-making. The article is taking a closer look at what said vulnerability means for the Euro-Atlantic security architecture, most specifically for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

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The Strategic Nuclear Treaty Regime at a Crossroads. The (Im)Possible Search for a New Point of Balance?

Author(s): Mario MARINOV / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The qualitative and quantitative balance in strategic nuclear capabilities between major global nuclear-armed states had been the subject of a longstanding international bilateral and multilateral treaty regime, which since the onset of the 21st century has undergone a process of continual degradation. With the gradual establishment of a more confrontational multipolar world order, the treaty regime as well as the guarantees it provided for international security have come into further peril. The present paper will examine the defining characteristics of the nuclear treaty regime, the factors leading to a point of balance in preceding decades between the nuclear superpowers of the United States of America and the Russian Federation, and the transformational factors, which have destabilised the balance in contemporary times. Furthermore, the paper will extend the discussion on the future of nuclear arms control to the changing geopolitical landscape and the rise of new major global powers such as the People’s Republic of China. Ultimately the paper attempts to establish the framework of the future evolution of the nuclear arms debate and the possibilities of reaching a new point of stability and deterrence between the mentioned state actors.

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General Characteristics of the Kaliningrad Region

Author(s): Șerban Grigoraș-Stănescu / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

This article presents a brief but informative examination of the Kaliningrad region in order to find out the mysteries of a geographical territory that belongs to Northern Europe, but currently represents Russia’s only European trophy after winning the Second World War. The paper contains general elements, as well as data that may seem new, through which the geography and history of the region are analysed in the first part. After understanding the natural state and the secular heritage of this territory, we will portray the policies of the Russian Federation imposed on its exclave, determine whether Kaliningrad is an important commercial actor on the international stage and investigate the evolution of the population from an ethnic, cultural and religious point of view. All these elements described previously represent an essential body of knowledge in our attempt to ultimately determine the importance of the Kaliningrad Oblastas a first-line geopolitical bastion in the eternal East-West confrontation in Europe.

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The Battle of Kyiv – Aspects Regarding the Conduct of Military Operations at the Tactical Level

Author(s): Claudiu Valer NISTORESCU / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The military operations conducted on the territory of Ukraine during the conflict started by the Russian Federation on 24 February 2022 show that the chances for large-scale combat operations in Europe have significantly increased. Consequently, the way those operations are carried out must be carefully reconsidered. Adapting to the requirements of the modern battlefield requires rapid multi-domain integration of new technologies and modern weapons systems. Therefore, doctrinal changes are required. There is no doubt that the Battle of Kyiv is a valuable source of information for military leaders, regarding the conduct of military operations at each level. Therefore, a pertinent analysis in relation to the factors that have contributed to the battle’s outcome could be very helpful. The main objective of the analysis is to highlight lessons on the topic of planning and carrying out military operations at the tactical level. It emphasises both the determining factors for the failure of the Russian offensive and the features that gave the Ukrainian forces the upper hand, ensuring the successful defence operation. The research methodology is based on the qualitative evaluation of the available information, to enable an assessment of the battle from the combat functions perspective with the aim to identify possible gaps in Westernarmies’ way to carry out combat operations.

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Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems – Emerging and Potentially Disruptive Technology

Author(s): Romică Cernat / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The renewal of the competition for the super power status has led to the revival of the emphasis on defence planning, by the great powers, on the capabilities intended for so-called high-end conventional, technologically sophisticated warfare, which involves large-scale and high-intensity military actions. Weapons that can be linked to waging high-end warfare actually include the military uses of lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS) and artificial intelligence (AI). The connection between robotics, autonomous systems and AI has the potential to change the nature of warfare. Theoretically, a lethal weapon system should be considered autonomous if it is designed so that it can modify its integrated programming, does not take into account the objectives initially set and modifies its rules of engagement without human intervention. Human judgment will remain essential, but the line between what humans and machines do best will constantly be shifting in the coming years. The most critical dimension of autonomy is the task the machine is performing. There are significant expectations and challenges, opportunities, and risks associated with LAWS across the full range of military operations. LAWS will influence military operations in the future and will have at least an evolutionary – if not revolutionary – effect.

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Romania in the European Cohesion Context

Author(s): Ioana Nica,Daniel Dumitru / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

This paper presents Romania’s strategic position on the main European security programmes reflected and accepted at the EU level, as well as a brief assessment of EU officials towards Romania and the concrete actions through which Romania decided to align with EU’ssecurity and defence standards. It discusses the main strategic objectives of Romania and the European Union, actions and measures to promote European cohesion in terms of security, but also other study elements, and research in the direction of national and international security.

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War Psychology and the Military Moral Dilemmas

Author(s): Cristian Dobre / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The article presents one of the most significant psychological aspects experienced by the military during their operations – ethics and morality. Thus, it dives deeper into the idea of “war psychology”, to then analyse the biggest ethical and moral dilemmas of the military during battle. Far from exhausting the subject, the article wants to draw attention to the fact that, in the end, the military is still human, and in the absence of adequate preparation for combat and adequate post-action psychological support at the end of the conflict, moral wounds can appear, which, most of the time, are as painful and devastating as the physical ones.

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Изкуствен интелект и асиметрични войни, водени от Русия

Author(s): Yordan Ivanov Bakalov / Language(s): English,Bulgarian Publication Year: 0

Artificial intelligence is the future of all humanity, and by betting on AI, Russia sees itself in direct geopolitical competition with the US and China, but it lags behind in science and development in this area. Politically, the Russian government is unlikely to dramatically increase investment in emerging technologies, given the country's old hydrocarbon-based extractive economy. For Russian strategic thought in foreign policy, information warfare is an integral part and the line between conventional and asymmetric warfare is blurred. In order for Europe and the US to cope with the new type of hyper-war caused by AI, a dynamic model of countering asymmetric threats must be developed. Governments, large non-profit organizations should also invest in research that will assess the short-term and long-term consequences of the use of AI.

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Войната в Украйна и използването на оръжия от ново поколение

Author(s): Petar Yordanov Nenkov / Language(s): English,Bulgarian Publication Year: 0

The color revolution in Ukraine started in 2013. Gradually, the tension escalated into armed clashes between Euromaidan supporters and the law enforcement authorities, which led to a coup in Kyiv. The eastern provinces of Ukraine, inhabited by a Russian-speaking population, declared against the violent change of power. In Donetsk and Luhansk, separatist republics were established. The authorities in Kyiv sent troops to quell their rebellion. On March 16, 2014, a referendum was held on Crimea's accession to Russia. On February 24, 2022, the armed forces of Russia invaded Ukraine. In hostilities, both sides use modern weaponry. The supplies of military equipment from NATO and the EU to the government in Kyiv are not stopping. Thus, the military conflict in Ukraine became internationalized and turned the country into a testing ground for weapons of the latest generation.

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THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON MILITARY POWER IN THE INDO-PACIFIC REGION

Author(s): DIACONU FLORIN / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

A few decades ago, John Naisbitt was openly listing a new major trend, already visible at that very moment on the international arena: the complex realities in the Pacific Ocean area were already massively important, and their global relevance grew larger and larger. Nowadays, this megatrend is even more important, leading both various political actors (leaders, states, political parties) and various analysts to an obvious conclusion: the Indo-Pacific region is the new center of the global system. In such a situation, the study explores, with some relevant details, the way in which the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic impacted the armed forces (military power) of some of the most important states in the Indo-Pacific region (mainly the US, China, India and Russia, but also some regional great powers – Japan, South Korea, Australia, and other regionally significant powers – Vietnam, the Philippines, Pakistan, Indonesia, and Taiwan, among others).

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ADJUSTMENT OF AIR POWER TO CHALLENGES RAISED BY CYBER OPERATIONS

Author(s): Vasile-Cristian Onesimiuc,Sorin Topor / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Innovation and digital technologies have an even greater influence on the development and growth of the air power efficiency. Cyber operations are more and more visible and therefore presented as being part of normality. Upon state level, air force can no longer ignore this reality and has to take active measures to adapt to the new state of normality. Adaptation of the air power to the challenges raised by cyber operations is a lengthy process, which develops continuously and that shall cause additional consumption of means and resources that would usually have been allocated to other activities. However, provided the adaption of the air power to the new reality becomes impossible, then it will, unavoidably, lead to its transformation into a paper tiger.

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CURRENT TRENDS IN MILITARY LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT

Author(s): MITROI Cosmin-Florinel / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

In the current security environment, the trend for national security logistics will be, in our opinion, a logistics focused on supporting the needs of the armed forces and will have the mission to provide the security system forces with the necessary civilian and military personnel, equipment, means of subsistence and essential support, at the requested destination, at the required time and in the requested quantity, during the operations designed to take place. The forces of the national military system will have to develop a logistics system in an integrated network of unitary action. The expected transformation will not take place immediately but will require essential changes, in stages, of the current logistics system, which will allow the forces of the national military system to train its personnel and modernize, but especially to be more rapidly deployable, highly maneuverable, sustainable and efficient.

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THE ROMANIAN DEFENCE INDUSTRY IN THE INTERNATIONAL ARMS SALE MARKET’S COMPETITION

Author(s): Crăişor Constantin IONIȚĂ / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

There is a fierce competition in the international arms sale market regarding the export of very high-tech and sensitive defence material. For some developed countries, like Russia, Greece, Italy, France, Sweden, the manufacture and sale of armaments represent a substantial percentage of their GDP and a possibility to grow their income and wealth. At the same time, because of the different research and development levels of advanced technologies in the production of defence capabilities, like multi-purpose platforms, unmanned systems, robotics, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence/learning machines, there is a huge discrepancy between American defence industry and the European one. This is really true when you consider the dependence of European industrial companies from their American counterparts. This dependence has obliged some European defence companies to establish bilateral or multilateral collaboration agreements to survive in the field of armaments export.For the Romanian Defence Industry, the discrepancy is even higher than Western similar companies, considering its reliance on old technologies, lack of specialists and research institutes, and acquisition of majority of its military equipment from the US. There is little interest from both the Government and the MoND to invest in national defence companies to buy their military products, which have lower technology incorporated and low performance equipment.

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REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE BLACK SEA – SOLUTIONS FOR THE FUTURE: THE SECURITY, STRATEGIES AND FORCES BALANCE

Author(s): Mihai PANAIT,Ion ROCEANU / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The post-pandemic period of COVID-19, in addition to profoundly changing international relations (especially globalization), brought a new perspective on the relationship among the concepts of regionalization, regionalization of security, new strategies and doctrines (to support them in the conditions of changing the level of operation imposed by COVID-19) as well as the type of new military equipment that will be found in the multi-annual procurement plans. The nature of the threats acquires a new nuance with the appearance of this pandemic and soon puts in front of the politico-military decision-makers, new reference points that will bring to the level of these days the fundamental documents (strategies, planning directives, procurement programs) that will support budgetary planning for the coming decades, research and innovation (to develop new platforms, sensors, and weapons with a small number of combatants), and new aspects of diminishing international and regional cooperation in favor of unilateral action. From now on, the new dimensions of the defense budget will have to contain other elements adapted to the COVID-19 fight.

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