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The most important long-term determinants of Poland’s policy towards the United Kingdom in 2017 were their joint membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), economic ties worth some PLN 104 billion, and the presence in that country of one of the largest Polish communities abroad. In the analysed period, the UK remained one of Poland’s most important allies, due to its military, technological, and financial potential, as well as similar defence policy objectives. While Poland’s policy towards the UK was also influenced by the asymmetry of the economic and political capacity of the two countries, this was mitigated by the restriction on British freedom of action on the EU forum resulting from the process of leaving the EU (Brexit).
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The key determinant of Poland’s policy towards the Russian Federation in 2017 were the latter’s aggressive actions, including the continued occupation of Ukrainian Crimea and military support of the so-called separatists in Donbas, which have destabilised Poland’s neighbourhood. What’s more, in autumn (14-20 September), Russia held joint military exercises in Belarus, Zapad 2017 (West 2017) in which the scenario was a conventional war in Europe. In November, the Russian authorities decided to deploy Iskander-M missiles to the Kaliningrad region from where they are capable of attacking land targets in NATO’s Eastern Flank countries. This led the Polish government to the conclusion that the country’s military, energy, and information security should be increased further.
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Poland’s policy towards Ukraine in 2017 was influenced mainly by the prolonged dispute over historical issues. Its culminating point was the introduction of a moratorium on the search and exhumation of the remains of Polish victims of wars and conflicts on Ukrainian territory. The decision was made in response to the removal of the monument to the Ukrainian Insurgent Army in Hruszowice (Podkarpackie Voivodship) by local authorities and representatives of Polish national circles. The Ukrainian authorities demanded its reconstruction. The Polish side, however, announced that the monument had been erected without proper permits, that its removal had been carried out in accordance with the law, and demanded the moratorium to be lifted. The negative reaction of the Polish authorities was also aroused by the opening of a memorial complex at the Veretsky Pass (Lviv region) in October, devoted to the fighters of the Carpathian Sich, who were murdered (as alleged by the inscription) by Poles and Hungarians in March 1939. The execution order issued by the Polish authorities is not confirmed by any historical sources. Meanwhile, the facility was opened personally by Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine for European and Euro-Atlantic integration, who granted the theory on the Polish war crime the nature of an official interpretation.
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The factors that conventionally determine Polish policy towards Belarus are the common border, the security situation in the region, respective minorities living in both countries, historical, cultural and linguistic ties, and the shared neighbourhood with Russia, whose international activities have a significant impact on Polish-Belarusian political and economic relations.
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The future is defined, according to James Canton, a futurist in business, by five factors: speed, expressed by the dizzying pace of change in all fields; complexity, manifested by the assault of a multitude of “seemingly unrelated” forces with a direct effect on the world in which we live, “from lifestyle to work to national and personal security; the risk, not only for individuals but also for states, from terror and crime to "global economic reconfigurations", which will determine the reconfiguration of the entire individual and collective existence; the change, generated by the “radical transformations at work, in the community and at the level of relationships” that will force the individual to adapt to the new reality through radical changes of attitude and way of life; the unforeseen, materialized by the element of surprise, often difficult to imagine, sometimes with a positive effect, sometimes “a challenge for sensitivity and logic”. At present, states are no longer the only actors on the international relations scene. Material equipment for warfare is now widely available to private bodies, as is the means of financing non-state wars. We have a global world, based on transnational private companies, which do everything they can to be controlled as little as possible by even the strongest governments. Of course, the existence of corporations is not new, as is globalization, which has a long history. What differs today, and falls into the rivalry zone, generating tensions worldwide, is that transnational NGOs and companies compete with states. It is no secret that NGOs, humanitarian groups, media trusts, and not just governments, use the services of private contractors in various fields, including the military, as their revenues often exceed the GDP of states. The efforts of governments and international organizations to resolve any kind of confrontation peacefully can be supported by the work of NGOs, which are often seen as a collective conscience. Conflicts within states, often maintained and sustained by non-state competitors, have become more serious and can continue indefinitely, without a reliable prediction as to their consequences for the political and territorial development of the state.
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Despite EU sanctions the Russian state media RT DE and SNA (the German version of Sputnik) continue working in Berlin and spreading disinformation on war against Ukraine. The aim is to justify Russia’s war in Ukraine, denigrate Ukraine internationally and blame the West for the aggression. According to a survey, up to 40 percent of Germany’s population support the Russian narratives fully or partially. But the Russian state media also try to influence the domestic policy in Germany. Currently they support protests against sanctions and the government and thus exploit the energy crisis for their political goals. By pretending to defend people’s interests against an abusive political elite they aim to destabilize society and attack the democracy in Germany.
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The conflict in Ukraine is the subject of contradictory narratives in the communication war, but also reflects the rival historical and geopolitical representations between the different actors of this conflict. According to the geopolitical angle, the main issue of the crisis in Ukraine is the rivalry between the great powers for world power and the distribution of geopolitical spaces. The geopolitical angle thus makes it possible to take into account the numerous stakes linked to this crisis on different scales, which go well beyond the purely geostrategic and military aspects. The main hypothesis of this article is to determine to what extent Russia, with its special military operation in Ukraine, is pushing for the emergence of a new geopolitical configuration on a European and global scale. Indeed, Moscow is provoking a redefinition of alliances at the regional and global levels. At the Eurasian level, NATO will probably no longer be able to pursue a policy of expansion in the Russian near abroad (countries of the former USSR), the enlargement of NATO to Ukraine being a casus belli, as the Russian intervention has shown. On a global scale, Russia’s membership in the UN Security Council now prevents any unilateral interpretation of international law by the collective West. Moreover, economic sanctions by EU and NATO member states are not being followed by other states in Eurasia, South America and Africa, challenging the unipolar project of the West under the leadership of the United States. The European Union is increasingly aligned with the geopolitical priorities of NATO and the United States, with little room for manoeuvre. Russia’s special operation in Ukraine is definitely moving the world towards a multicentric and multipolar geopolitical configuration, with no possibility of returning to the pre-conflict situation. In this analysis, geopolitical cartography will be used to illustrate the problematics but also to emphasize the spatial angle as an analytical tool.
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The crisis of the West is perceived through the diminishing expansion of the postmodern paradigm to the non-Western parts of the world. The West entered the postmodern at the end of the 20th century, when liberalism remained alone in the political field, while the bipolar international order of the balance of power was destroyed. Liberal postmodernization of the world, initiated by globalization, was adamant. Postmodern liberalism imposed itself to the whole world as the only ideological matrix, whereas the global market and global corporations dictated the relations in the world. The Westphalian system of international relations, as one of the remaining modern categories implying the primacy of the sovereign state, began disappearing. However, the power of the hegemon USA as a military, political and ideological protector of globalization and postmodern, began dwindling in 2008 (a declining power). On the other hand, resistance emerged to the imposition of the postmodern. Russia was the first to adopt anti-liberal and anti-globalization laws (2013), which prompted the West to start a postmodern campaign against Russia. The USA and the West, faced with the increasing resistance, resort to geopolitical strategies from the period of the modern in order to preserve hegemony. Ukraine (as a postmodern creation in the mediation war against Russia) is geopolitically used against Russia). Russia opposes the postmodern West ideologically and geopolitically (by introducing spirituality and tradition in its public sphere) and it is geopolitically engaged in creating multipolarity and the balance of power. In this manner, Russia leaves the West. That creates a different paradigm, not only for Russia, but for the whole world. The paper considers the war a consequence and not a cause of the world crisis (which is also a consequence). The causes lie in the inability of the postmodern (in all its aspects) to impose itself onto the whole world.
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Aim. The paper aims to analyse the importance of such a tangled triangle as India-Pakistan-Afghanistan and its impact over the whole of Asia and its regional stability and security. The already complex region is complicated by interference of such great powers as Russia pursuing its interests in the whole regional politics and of each country separately. The paper examines the strategic interests and the level of cooperation and influence of India in Afghanistan and its implications for Pakistan. Methods. The study is mainly based on the following research methods: descriptive, analysis and document analysis, The paper is based on the books, scientific papers, studies and researches conducted by researchers in this field. Results. We can claim that the work clearly describes the significant role of India that makes its presence justified there to achieve its broader aims via Afghanistan. Although there will remain a sizeable role of US presence in Afghanistan, however, India is providing local socio-economic infrastructure and civil, military, and political services to promote peace and security in the war-torn country, which represents a threat and anxiety for the whole region. Conclusion. Regional cooperation between the five landlocked Central Asian republics, Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan opens up new directions and opportunities for the development of trade and economic relations. The Central Asian republics show great interest in the establishment of transport corridors through Afghanistan with access to the warm seas of the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf. Iran and Pakistan are developing their ports in anticipation of increased exports/ imports and increased transit of goods.
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Review of: Na pograniczu narodów i kultur. Polska. Europa. Ameryka, wybór i oprac. B. Wróblewski, Ł. Janicki, Czytelnik – Wschodnia Fundacja Kultury „Akcent”, Warszawa–Lublin 2020.
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The instruments of economic statecraft have been utilized increasingly in the face of geopolitical challenges. The EU’s response to the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 was to impose sanctions. This paper analyses the EU as a normative sanctioning power in the context of the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 until the start of the Russia-Ukraine War on February 24, 2022. In its Global Strategy, the EU mentioned sanctions as a credible tool in the Union’s foreign policy mix. Following David A. Baldwin’s economic statecraft conceptualisation, this article argues that, in various contingencies, economic statecraft might constitute a credible option, especially if the potential perils of military statecraft in a nuclear world are considered. The EU sanctions after the annexation of Crimea functioned at least for two purposes: first, the EU successfully conveyed its messages to Russia and the wider international community that what Russia committed was not approved. Although this message could be conveyed verbally diplomatically, as done by many international actors, the EU’s message was supported with relatively credible instruments compared to ineffective verbal declarations. Secondly, the EU committed itself through the sanctions on the Ukrainian cause. Thus, this paper argues that although economic statecraft cannot be considered a cure for all the vagaries of geopolitical challenges, it has proved to be an essential part of the policy mix of a containment strategy upon the annexation of Crimea.
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Strong overarching states have always characterised South Asia. A post-colonial democratic India has been no different. Other than that, of a top-down ‘nationalist’ idea which is an inherently exclusive project, it seems to securitise and consider any other collective sensibility as a threat. It does so because of its insecurities and lingering cartographic anxiety. The paper argues that alternate imaginations can and do co-exist with national imaginations, but the Indian ‘nation-state’ has had problems with such imaginations. The paper seeks to locate and critically analyse such nationalist insecurities and the multiplicity of alternate imaginations of Pan-South Asianism, sub-nationalisms, other such regionalisms and cosmopolitanisms and their complex interactions in every day India. The paper employing critical discourse analysis explores how popular alternate imaginations co-exist with, contest, resist, or negotiate with the ‘national’ identity. Without assuming people to be readily more cosmopolitan, it looks at how people respond to the over-arching state and its articulation in the everyday - whether they readily accept the ‘manufactured’ picture or go beyond. It also explores the question of whether such articulations have a differential impact in certain sites and spatialities, especially in the socio-political and geographical margins. Essentially, it asks whether alternate imaginations have to always come at the cost of the loss of nationalist imagination or does it have more to do with how that nationalist imagination gets articulated. The question begs whether popular imaginations have to be necessarily constrained within the ‘container’ of the ‘national’. The paper concludes that top-down national integration that constructs other sensibilities readily as threats en route a more homogenised national identity creates more problems than what it is purported to solve.
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Bangladesh has followed a balancing approach in its external relations historically. Over the last five decades, the balancing behaviour has undergone qualitative change due to Bangladesh’s evolving national interest and power dynamics. Bangladesh has been striking a balance between India and China for a while now. However, the situation has changed since the announcement of the Indo-Pacific Strategy, the revival of QUAD and the inking AUKUS pact. To counter the growing Chinese presence, a US stake has become visible in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific region. As a result, Bangladesh is now directly balancing the interests of three superpowers, India, China, and the USA. Existing literature cannot explain this new balancing scenario. This paper aims to explain Bangladesh’s evolving balancing strategy. To do so, this paper will look at Bangladesh’s foreign policy from a historical perspective and focus on the latest development in the Indo-Pacific region. To overcome the limits of existing literature, this paper will attempt to develop a new balancing framework, Three-Way Balancing. This paper will also focus on how Bangladesh can maintain its tradition of neutrality amid heated geopolitics between these three states. This paper will follow a qualitative approach and analyse secondary literature.
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Purpose: This paper analyzes the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 on returns of three groups of assets, i.e., commodities, stocks, and cryptocurrencies.Methodology: The study was conducted using the event study method which allows for quantifying the reaction of market participants to releases of various types of information.Findings: The cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) suggest a mostly positive effect of the conflict outbreak on returns of several commodities, especially precious metals. The obtained results suggest that in times of global crises, investors may consider precious metals as a safe haven. The study also indicates that on the event day the examined stock markets reacted negatively to information about the war, but to varying degrees. The Russian aggression against Ukraine did not affect the cryptocurrency markets in a statistically significant manner.Research limitations: The future studies related to the issue of the impact of Russian aggression against Ukraine on different markets may utilize larger research samples. They also may look for some factors affecting the reaction of markets to information related to the Russian military aggression, like the size of markets, trading volume, or geographical proximity, and economic dependence in the case of equity markets.Value: The study may provide some practical implications for both investors and regulators, especially in relation to the expected behavior of the markets and their informational efficiency in times of global crisis.
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The present paper makes, at a certain level of abstraction and generalization, a synthesis of the state of the international system, starting from the concept of “international order”. International order is defined in this article as a situation, not as a value, goal or objective, and its approach does not emphasize international law or international organization, but analyzes order as something that exists independently of both, although it is recognized the place of regulations - whether or not they have the status of law - in the establishment and functioning of the order. The approach is an attempt to understand the current international order, including the play of the actors and how they relate to it. Analysis of the current international order shows that it is fraught with risks and threats induced by forces in action, visible or underground, affecting the interests of those who contributed to the creation of this order and who strive to maintain it.
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Central Asia is situated in the proxy vicinity of two large states: the Russian Federation and China, both looking for uncontested global actor status. The mode the two states relate to Central Asia differs because of the way each projects its power. The Russian Federation has a multidomain cooperation with the Central Asian states, mainly focused on the security aspect, while China, on the other hand, is betting on the economic force through which it could influence Central Asian politics in her favor. USSR’s implosion and Kremlin’s revisionist and imperialist intentions of influence sphere reconfirmation corroborated with China’s accelerated economic development strengthens mainly competition, not cooperation, between the two actors who are also strategic partners. Turkey, through its foreign affairs’ pragmatic and opportunistic policies, supports the Turkish-speaking communities in Central Asia and it aims for mentoring their policies. The USA, the EU, India and Iran are, foremost, interested in the energy resources of the region, because of economic reasons, as an alternative to the Russian gas or as a resource for their own development.
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Some time ago an anonymous commentator on one of the portals in Bosnia and Herzegovina wrote: ‘The Serbian, Croatian, and Bosniak blocks of political parties are united only by Annex 4 of the Dayton Peace Agreement. Everything else separates them.’ Such a general assessment seems unacceptable to researchers at first glance. Yet, anyone with a more profound knowledge of political parties in Bosnia and Herzegovina will largely agree with this thesis. It seems that the fate of the pluralistic space of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which has supervised sovereignty (through the action of the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina) and an approved Constitution (imposed through the intervention of the United States of America in Dayton), is that it is not united by social values, by the basic political agreements of its elites, and not even by shared economic gain. An impossible state is the best diagnosis of Bosnia and Herzegovina, claimed by Nenad Kecmanović, and unstable and unfinished, claimed by almost all those informed on the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The main thesis of this paper is that the geopolitical orientation of political parties in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which we investigate through their programmess and political practice, is a good way to show its internal antagonisms and the reasons for the impossibility of achieving unity, a stable and functional state. The conflict in Ukraine adds to the relevance of this paper, to which political parties and actors in Bosnia and Herzegovina heve expressed their respective stances. The paper is a methodological combination of two scientific fields: political theory and international relations.
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