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№022: The European Development Fund: Perspectives and the Changing Landscape of EU-ACP Relations

Author(s): Karolina Werner / Language(s): English

The European Development Fund is arguably one of the most potent tools of the European Union’s policy towards the countries of Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific region. As the member states and the EU institutions prepare to make a decision on the future shape and scope of the EDF, the following analysis lays out the intricacies of the EU-ACP relationship from its outset, and addresses the key elements of the debate within the decision-making and expert circles. The EDF is plagued by general inconsistency of the EU policy towards these regions, and suffers from all-too-familiar shortcomings such as extensive bureaucracy and ineffective programming of aid. Despite these challenges, the EDF has established itself as a fairly predictable and versatile instrument for channeling of aid, and one which adequately addresses the needs of most of the ACP countries. Still, some reforms, such as greater diversification between the three regions involved, could be necessary, all this while the EU member states stand by their commitments to development aid.

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№020: European Neighbourhood Policy: How to Reconcile EU’s Offer with Neighbour’s Expectations?

Author(s): Monika Arcipowska,Beata Wojna / Language(s): English

The paper diagnoses the key challenges faced by the European Union as it re-calibrates its policy towards its immediate neighbours to the east and to the south, spurred by the recognition of inadequate progress in the former case, and by a tectonic shift in the socio-political landscape in the latter case. The authors argue that the EU needs to urgently address the disconnect between its own objectives in the neighbourhood, and the expectations of its partners, who are themselves a hugely heterogenic group. The EU has no better choice but to increase the conditionality behind its initiatives, and to introduce greater differentiation among their addressees. The institutional, structural and financial constraints of the EU’s neighbourhood policy only add to the challenge, but the EU has too much to loose in terms of its own credibility as a foreign policy actor to allow them to prevail.

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VisegrAid 4 Moldova report: Effectiveness by Collaboration

Author(s): / Language(s): English

By 2014 Moldova has become the priority Eastern Partnership country in terms of bilateral aid for each of the V4 states. Yet without a European mechanism to coordinate bilateral aid for Moldova, such efforts often overlap with respect to priorities. Offering an overview of bilateral aid of each V4 state and assessing the needs of Moldova itself, the report also formulates concrete recommendations on how to counter the increasing in-country aid fragmentation in Moldova and enhance the efficiency of the distributed aid.

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Non-military aspects of security in V4 countries—prospects for co-operation

Author(s): / Language(s): English

The Polish Institute of International Affairs has published the third issue of the “V4 Papers” titled “Non-military aspects of security in V4 countries—prospects for co-operation”. The volume edited by Dr Kacper Rękawek of the Polish Institute of International Affairs analyses past experiences and prospects for V4 cooperation while combatting non-military threats like international terrorism and organised crime to the region.The publication is a part of a project "Creating a Sphere of Security in Wider Central Europe: Sharing V4 Know-how in Cooperation on Security with the Neighbouring Regions" supported by the International Visegrad Fund.

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Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Although the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is one of Turkey’s closest partners, Ankara disapproved of this week’s independence referendum. Yet, Turkey did not take actions that would have forced the Iraqi Kurds to postpone or cancel the vote. That suggests Turkish politicians’ stance on the referendum was dictated by domestic political considerations and will harden only if the situation with Iraqi Kurdistan constitutes a threat to Turkey’s territorial integrity.

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China’s Internet Policy

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China treats the internet as an arena for global competition. It believes that EU and U.S. support for unrestricted access to information on the global level endangers the stability of its political regime. China has strengthened control over internet usage within its borders to restrict information flow. It also uses the economic expansion of Chinese IT companies abroad to make its position on cyberspace stronger and its draft International Code of Conduct for Information Security is contradictory to the EU and U.S. concepts. China’s actions require EU resistance to defend global open internet and economic freedom.

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The Importance of the UK’s Withdrawal Bill in the Brexit Negotiations with the EU

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

European Union (Withdrawal) Bill 2017–2018 is the highest-level UK government document concerning the legal and administrative dimension of Brexit. The legal importance of the bill is grounded in its designed influence on the UK legal system. Its political importance stems from the UK’s demonstrated readiness to leave the EU without a deal and from the polarisation of the country’s politics on the issue. In the background of the legislative works are UK government efforts to persuade its EU partners to open talks on the future model of the EU-UK relationship.

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Trump’s Trade Policy: Protectionism Bluster

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

The Trump administration’s trade policy is mostly bluster. The declarations of withdrawal from international agreements or threats to introduce protectionist measures are meant to serve the U.S. president to achieve economic and political benefits. However, these threats are voiced too often, have become unreliable, and have had only limited effect. While America’s partners need to be prepared in case Trump’s declarations are enacted, the stability of the U.S. economy, the strength of its alliances, and pressure from business and politicians—including Republicans—reduce the likelihood they will be pursued.

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Romania’s European Policy

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Delivering his State of the European Union speech, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker asked Romania, which will hold the presidency of the Council of the EU in 2019, to organise an extraordinary EU summit in Sibiu—the first one after the UK’s withdrawal if it proceeds according to schedule. He also appealed to the Member States for accept Romania in the Schengen area immediately. Increasingly, EU partners are seeking Romanian support at a time of debate on the Union’s future. Romania has avoided confrontation with the EU institutions and the bloc’s largest Member States, and has declared its intentions to join a mainstream of closer integration, while Poland—the regional point of reference in the Polish neighbourhood until recently—is not active on this issue.

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14th EU-India Summit in New Delhi Strengthens Partnership

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The EU-India Summit in New Delhi on 6 October showed an increasing convergence of views on major regional and global issues and boosted the strategic partnership established in 2004. Yet, the lack of a breakthrough in negotiations of the Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) proves it remains a major challenge, along with the negative effects of Brexit, on EU-India relations. If the negotiations are protracted, the EU may consider a separate deal on investments alone. Poland should consider more actively participating in shaping EU policy on India and using existing mechanisms of dialogue to strengthen its bilateral cooperation.

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The International Aspects of Vladimir Putin’s Re-election Campaign

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

In December, the campaign for president of Russia will officially begin in anticipation of the vote in March 2018. Vladimir Putin and his allies will use the tensions in Russia’s relations with the U.S. and the EU to build a climate of danger and to convince voters about the potential of interference in Russia’s electoral process. This will be Putin’s response to the concerns of Russians who see him as the guarantor of the security and international standing of the state.

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The 2007 Berlin and 2017 Rome Declarations: Compared, with Conclusions

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

The Berlin and Rome Declarations, adopted respectively on the 50th and 60th anniversaries of the Treaties of Rome, differ in both the general tone and the challenges presented. At the time that the Berlin Declaration was signed, the direction of European Union reforms was clearly outlined. The Union was to be transformed into a single international organisation, in which the majority of decisions would be made using the “community” method. This direction was confirmed by the Treaty of Lisbon. In the Rome Declaration, there is uncertainty about the future of the EU and the lack of a coherent vision for the development of the organisation. This could result in the short-term defence of the status quo, and the longer-term differentiation of integration.

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Prospects for Turkey-U.S. Relations in the Context of the Syrian Civil War

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Turkey hopes for an improvement in its relations with the United States during Donald Trump’s presidency. The intensive political dialogue between the two allies suggests that the U.S. also wishes for that. However, their different approaches to the Syrian civil war may be a serious obstacle to reach that aim. A lack of understanding on that issue may induce Turkey’s actions, which would complicate the fight against the Islamic State. In the longer-term perspective, it may also strengthen anti-Western sentiments in Turkey and weaken the country’s engagement in NATO.

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Strengthening Deterrence in the Black Sea Region

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Russia’s development of its offensive capabilities in the Black Sea region could pose a threat to NATO. Yet Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey each have different perceptions of the threat, making it difficult for the Alliance to strengthen deterrence policy in the regional dimension. Although NATO is gradually adjusting its forces in response to the new strategic situation, the credibility of deterrence depends on the rotational presence of U.S. troops.

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№159: EU Policy Options Towards Post-Soviet De Facto States

Author(s): Urban Jakša / Language(s): English

Conflicts in post-Soviet areas involving de facto states have remained unresolved since the ceasefires in the early 1990s. By heating up periodically, these conflicts threaten broader regional security, and by remaining unresolved, limit their chances for political association and economic integration with the EU, undermining the Union’s Eastern Partnership. In recent years, the EU’s tensions with Russia, the ever-growing dependence of most post-Soviet de facto states on Russia, the recent re-escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh, and recently emerged, protracted conflict in eastern Ukraine have made the situation more complicated and urgent. Since the EU’s current approach towards these “frozen conflicts” has so far shown little result, the EU and the V4 should take a more active role in resolving these conflicts and might want to consider stepping up engagement with the post-Soviet de facto states. Increasing the interaction and extending its scope while at the same time reassuring the parent states that this will not constitute “de facto recognition” would de-isolate the populations of these territories, reduce their dependence on Russia and provide incentives for conflict resolution.

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Current Legal Situation of the OPAL Pipeline

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

In December 2016, companies of the PGNiG Group took successful legal action to suspend the implementation of a European Commission decision on the rules relating to the operation of the OPAL gas pipeline, changed by the German regulator for the benefit of Gazprom. Nevertheless, Gazprom has increased the use of the pipeline to full capacity. While its behaviour cannot be considered incompatible with EU and German law, the actions of German authorities violate the EU principle of sincere cooperation. Poland should urge the European Commission to ensure that, pending the delivery of the final judgment, the new rules on the operation of the OPAL gas pipeline are not applied.

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Implications of the Election of a New President of the European Parliament

Author(s): Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka / Language(s): English

In the absence of compromise between the two largest political groups of the European Parliament, the result of the election of its new president, to be held on January 17, is difficult to predict. Victory for the European People’s Party’s candidate would mark the end of the current balance of power as representatives of EPP would lead the three most important EU institutions: the European Council, the Parliament and the Commission. Only the position of high representative for foreign affairs and security policy would remain staffed by a candidate of the Progressive Alliance of European Socialists and Democrats. The choice of the new head of the EP does not automatically imply a new president of the European Council. Yet it can have consequences for the political situation in Italy, and thus for the future of the eurozone.

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Consequences of the Assassination of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

The assassination of Andrei Karlov, the Russian ambassador to Turkey, was initially perceived as a threat to relations between Turkey and Russia. However, statements voiced by the two countries’ presidents declared the murder to be provocation aimed precisely at spoiling these relations. Thus, the incident may facilitate rapprochement between the two countries. Accusations that the assassin was linked to the Gülen movement may also lead to tensions between Turkey and the United States.

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Prospects for Relations between the EU and Belarus

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Due to strong ties with Russia, Belarus has limited ability to shape its own foreign policy, especially in relations with the European Union. However, the Belarusian authorities are interested in increasing cooperation with the EU, in order to reduce their dependence on Russia and convince Belarusians of the importance of their state in international politics. The European Union should use its political and economic instruments to engage the Belarusian authorities in this respect. Signing a new document on partnership and cooperation will also be important in the long term. Together with support for civil society, these steps should strengthen Belarusian statehood.

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Probable U.S. Policy Directions under President Trump

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Donald Trump has been elected as the 45th president of the United States. He ran against the fallout from the economic crisis and for reducing U.S. involvement in solving global problems. One can expect that President Trump’s general policy will concern selective and conditional U.S. engagement abroad and abandonment of the notion of free trade. Trump’s campaign suggests a transactional approach towards foreign policy.

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