Poland: The (Success) Story So Far

Author(s): Anita Sobják / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

In the midst of a whole series of accelerated changes in and to the EU, Poland’s role in the Union has undergone a spectacular evolution. For anyone who had not earlier noticed this process, last year’s crisis-dominated European debates certainly made it clear. As only a narrow circle of Member States seem to be setting the pattern and rhythm for shaping the future track of the EU, Poland has so far been able to keep up with them. Yet with the change of both the domestic and European setups, Poland needs to rethink its strategy to maintain its European profile. For this, a number of questions need to be clarified: what are the roots of Poland’s recent advancements? What is the Polish vision of the future Europe and where does it see itself in it? What are the potential obstacles standing in Poland’s way of reaching its objectives? What are the stances of other Member States towards the Polish project?

Neighbourhood Policy: “Let Economics Do the Job”

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

As a foreign policy player, the EU has the clearest priorities in its direct neighbourhood: it must shield itself from numerous threats, such as irregular migration flows, conflict and energy insecurity. However, its political leverage over the region has weakened even as a new union diplomacy has been created. The reason lies in the fact that EU policy tools do not meet reality and changing trends. The European Neighbourhood Policy was created in 2004, a time when the EU was self-assured due to the successful accession of 10 new Member States and wanted to impose upon its neighbours its political vision by using strategies replicating enlargement. It is no longer the same story. Internally, the EU integration model is being rethought and is developing into multi-speed formats from which the 2004 members find themselves rather marginalised. No further accession commitments are likely to be undertaken by the Member States in the medium term beyond those already made to the West Balkans.

Hungary: Collecting the First Dividends of Interconnectivity?

Author(s): András Deák / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Hungary is a resource-poor country with only limited and relatively expensive coal (lignite) and hydropower potential. It has a considerable record of hydrocarbon production dating back to the late 1930s, but much of these conventional reserves have already been depleted. Domestic supplies of gas constitute around 20%, internal oil production provides less than 8% of total demand for the time being, and both are in decline. Thus, import dependency has long been a natural, and socially and politically accepted necessity. Hungary built up a significant nuclear component during the mid-1980s in Paks (four Soviet VVER blocs meet around 40% of electricity demand) and relies heavily on natural gas imports.

Poland: Northern Wishes, Southern Promises

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Dariusz Kałan / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

In comparison with the other Visegrad countries, Poland’s gas security seems relatively high. This coastal state, unlike the Czech Republic or Slovakia, not only has quite significant domestic output (4.3 bcm in 2012), which accounted for some 29% of the country’s demand, but also has a proportionately low level of natural gas in its TPES (13%). Poland is also a major coal producer, and coal comprises a significant portion of the country’s primary energy supply, ahead of all other sources, including gas. Thus, this data could suggest that Poland—as an insignificant natural gas customer—is not necessarily vulnerable in terms of energy security. However, although the country was only mildly affected by the 2009 cuts of supplies from the east, its position in the gas market is far from being fully protected.

Annexes

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Introduction

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca,Dorota Liszczyk / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The French political landscape completely changed after the last presidential and parliamentary elections, as the Socialist Party acquired a political monopoly. They have gained a majority in the Senate and won an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Most importantly, Socialist candidate François Hollande managed to defeat the incumbent and centre-right candidate Nicolas Sarkozy to become president. On 6 May 2012, Hollande won the election with 51.64% of votes compared to 48.36% for his opponent. Therefore after three failed attempts (in 1995, 2002 and 2007) the Left returned to Élysée Palace.

France after the Elections and the Future of the European Union

Author(s): Olga Cichowlas / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The outcome of May’s French presidential elections reflected the will for change in France, in relation to both domestic and EU policies. Like numerous Member States, France is currently economically weak and requires extensive reform. Simultaneously, the European Union is experiencing a triple crisis in the economy, governance and political legitimacy. Low mobility and varying degrees of competitiveness between the countries that share the same currency sap the Union’s resources; inter-governmentalism, introduced as a replacement for the community method, has failed as a mode for solving the eurozone crisis; and European citizens increasingly view the EU with scepticism. In this context, François Hollande’s victory held out the promise of an improved political atmosphere for the discussion of EU policies and a novel means to deal with the eurozone’s long-standing financial crisis. By opening Franco-German cooperation to other Member States and broaching the debate on the EU’s “pro-growth agenda,” the French Socialist president is trying to reshape policies on both a national and European scale. François Hollande’s efforts to distance himself from his predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy, are particularly evident in his attitude towards the financial crisis and the future of the EU.

The Socialist Party’s Divisions on European Union Policy and Its Preconditions

Author(s): Szymon Stellmaszyk / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The divisions in the French Socialist Party around the issue of the European Union are nothing new. The most famous split occurred in the wake of the 2005 decision to hold a national referendum between those who campaigned for the treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe and those who were against it. Months before the referendum, the Socialist Party consulted its members. The “Yes” vote won with 59%, but the “No”-bloc continued their campaign outside the party, opposing the Constitutional treaty, citing a lack of democratic accountability and the threat that it posed to the European social model.

The New French Approach to Common Security and Defence Policy

Author(s): Krzysztof Soloch / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

France has continually supported a greater security role for the European Union, and the development of Common Security and Defence Policy is, for Paris, a natural progression for European integration and an essential element in the validity of Common Foreign and Security Policy. As the French took over the presidency of the Council of the European Union in July 2000 and again in 2008, CSDP remained the number one priority for them. After the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty on 1 December 2009, the European Union (EU) was supposed to benefit from a new, more active and effective Common Defence and Security Policy. The CDSP is designed to give the EU the means to cope with crisis resolution—by giving it operational tools (civilian and military ones) it is designed to make the Union’s foreign policy more credible. But the EU is not yet able to influence the course of events in the world around it. The EU’s failure in Libya has confirmed the permanent gap between Europe’s ambitions and its insufficient capacity. The refusal on the part of High Representative Catherine Ashton to accept the EU’s lead in commanding the naval embargo of Libya represented a severe setback for the EEAS when at the same time this proposal had been agreed by the UK, France and other EU members and enjoyed the support of the U.S. The EU remains a major civil power, able to carry out humanitarian operations and provide important economic support. But the EU has yet been unable to influence the course of events.

Frequency Domain Causal Effects of Geopolitical Risk and Economic Uncertainty on Green Bond Market Around the Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Remzi Gök / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

We analyze causal effects of geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty indices on the green bond market, utilizing two causality tests, around the military conflict in Ukraine. Consistent with the existing literature, the results of Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and Breitung and Candelon (2006) in the static framework show no causal flows from geopolitical risks throughout the period, either before the war or during the war. Further, we find no evidence for both temporary and permanent causal impacts from the geopolitical risks on green bonds. However, we see that changes in economic policy uncertainty Granger-causes fluctuations in green bonds in both full and during the invasion of Ukraine. The results also reveal that the causality is temporary and permanent over the full period; temporary before the war; but turns out to be permanent and stronger during the war, indicating that uncertainty index can exert causal impacts on green bond indices regardless of market conditions and strengthens its power across extreme market conditions. Further, we resort to a time-varying approach of Breitung and Candelon (2006) causality test based on a rolling window of 50 and 60 daily observations. We find that the causal flows from both indicators appear significant and those causation impacts are not constant but time-varying. Economic policy uncertainty is stronger than geopolitics risks in forecasting the movements in green bonds given a higher rejection of the null hypothesis for the former variable. The causality is mostly permanent rather than temporary and the causation impacts from both variables are stronger during the war.

Terms through a strategic communications lens

Author(s): Leonie Haiden,Jente Althuis / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The relationship between strategic communications and values does not only concern how we define StratCom itself. The articulation of values has also been a central part of how actors have shaped and shifted discourses in relation to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. When actors use certain terms and concepts—defending Western values, protecting our freedom, fighting an existential war, to name but a few—they aim to shape how we understand the events going on around us, and how we react to them. But in doing so they also shape and sometimes (re)define the terms themselves. It is worth considering the origins of some of these terms, and setting out how and why they have recently been used and contested by different actors. The discussion below is by no means exhaustive. It addresses the most relevant and contested terms that have regained currency in discourse surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. The status of the debate is depicted below, rather than any fresh definition of the terms selected. Terms have already been extensively conceptualised during a rich history that has seen lively academic debate. Instead of redefining them here, better to show how contested some are, and contextualise how they are used today.

REFLECTIONS ON DISCOURSE FORMATION AND INFLUENCE

Author(s): Neville Bolt / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

At this point the discussion broadens to include a wider consideration of how discourses move in relation to one another in societies. Discourse shaping seeks to create a new norm. As the philosopher Timothy Garton Ash observes: ‘The deepest power is that of determining what people consider normal. If you can persuade others that your way of doing things is normal, you have won. At the moment many mature democracies are experiencing the normalization of the anti-liberal far right.’ And ‘normalization’ as a term now widely employed, he reminds us, ‘came to prominence after the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. It meant the attempt to return a European society to Soviet communist norms.’ Here we emphasise that any two-dimensional representation misses an important component in creating new norms. Communicators rarely seek to influence a single mainstream conversation but several aspects of the same conversation simultaneously.

How Has Covid-19 Impacted China’s Geopolitical Strategic Communications?

Author(s): Aurelio Insisa / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Crossing the shatterbelts of Eurasia and the commercial sea-lanes of the Indo-Pacific, the Belt and Road Initiative has put the distinctively geopolitical outlook of China’s strategy into the spotlight. Beijing articulates this strategy through the deployment of multidimensional diplomacy, Leninist ‘propaganda work’ and ‘united front work’, economic statecraft, and deterrence signalling. By framing the deployment of this vast array of tools as a strand of ‘geopolitical strategic communications’, this chapter examines the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Beijing’s attempt to shape the perceptions and choices of foreign countries’ decision-makers and public opinions. The chapter explores how the pandemic has both expanded and created avenues for influence, with a focus on the Global South. At the same time, it examines how Beijing’s concern for regime security and diverging national strategies in containing the pandemic have emboldened China’s geopolitical strategic communications vis-à-vis other regional and global powers.

A Hard Rain on a Bad Roof

Author(s): Paul Bell / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

This past July, as the Georgian summer approached its height, and Tbilisi sweltered, it was clear the country had learned to live with Covid-19. Things had pretty much gone back to normal despite a five-fold rise in infections between one week and the next; numbers had risen from 100 to 500 infections per week, and almost doubled in the capital. (Why the spike? This is pure speculation but there had been two large protest rallies and a pop festival in Tbilisi in the ten days before.) Nonetheless, the health secretary, Zurab Azarashvili, pronounced the epidemiological situation in Georgia ‘calm’ and ‘fully manageable’—and indeed that seemed an altogether fair assessment given that in that preceding fortnight, deaths had been down to between one and three.

Неефективността на френската национална политика като риск за сигурността

Author(s): Boris Vladimirov Zarkov / Language(s): English,Bulgarian Publication Year: 0

Ethno-religious risks pose a serious threat to national security and the stability of societies. They include conflicts and tensions arising from differences in ethnic and religious identities. These types of risks can lead to social strife, terrorism and even war. Understanding and managing these risks requires extensive research that analyses the factors that cause them, as well as developing strategies and policies to promote stability and security. This complex problem requires an integrated approach that brings together aspects of religion, ethnic identity and social factors in order to promote tolerance and peace in societies.

Czech Foreign Policy: Ideologies, Prejudices and Co-ordination

Author(s): Petr Drulák / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The previous chapters provide detailed insights into key areas of the Czech foreign policy in the period 2007–2009. This concluding chapter will analyse the most important foreign policy decisions and events with respect to some domestic factors of the Czech foreign policy making. Specifically, it will look into the most influential ideas shaping the Czech foreign policy and it will consider the perennial problem of the foreign policy coordination.

Balkánský rozměr české zahraniční politiky

Author(s): Tomáš Dopita / Language(s): Czech Publication Year: 0

Tato kapitola nejprve představuje konceptuální východiska a politický kontext, a to zejména geopolitický kontext a dlouhodobou českou podporu evropské integrace západního Balkánu, ale také základní problémy, se kterými se česká zahraniční politika vůči zemím Balkánského poloostrova dlouhodobě potýká. Následující část kapitoly uvádí hlavní události, jež ovlivnily agendu české zahraniční politiky vůči zemím Balkánského poloostrova, jmenovitě vývoj v evropské politice, postup v normalizaci vztahů mezi Srbskem a Kosovem a řešení sporu společnosti ČEZ s Albánií. Následuje analýza mediálního kontextu a závěrečné shrnutí.

Balkánský rozměr české zahraniční politiky

Author(s): Tomáš Dopita / Language(s): Czech Publication Year: 0

Předchozí vydání této publikace zaznamenávaly důležité události v české zahraniční politice vůči jihovýchodní Evropě, zejména ty ve spojení s evropskou integrací, migrační vlnou, zesílením geopolitického soupeření Západu s Ruskem, sporem polostátní skupiny ČEZ s Albánií, dohodou o normalizaci vztahů a dialogu mezi Bělehradem a Prištinou či dlouhodobými dopady finanční krize. Během této doby aktéři české zahraniční politiky rozvíjeli vztahy s jihovýchodní Evropou a v roce 2015 se v aktualizované Koncepci zahraniční politiky České republiky zaměřili zejména na aktivní podporu integračního „úsilí Srbska, dalších zemí západního Balkánu a Turecka“. Přitom se však museli vyrovnávat s vlastním ambivalentním a polarizovaným vztahem ke Kosovu i s podnikatelskými neúspěchy při balkánské expanzi skupiny ČEZ. Mediálně zdaleka nejzmiňovanější balkánskou zemí bylo v posledních letech Řecko, a to zejména ve spojitosti s dluhovou a posléze migrační krizí. Přímé politické vztahy České republiky s Řeckem však byly doposud poměrně omezené.

Balkánský rozměr české zahraniční politiky

Author(s): Tomáš Dopita / Language(s): Czech Publication Year: 0

Stejně jako v předchozích letech, i v roce 2015 pokračovali aktéři české zahraniční politiky v proaktivní podpoře euroatlantické integrace západního Balkánu jako hlavní dlouhodobé prioritě balkánské dimenze české zahraniční politiky. Tak jako v předchozích letech však docházelo v české zahraniční politice k polarizaci a politizaci kvůli nezávislosti Kosova. Proces normalizace vztahů mezi Srbskem a Kosovem, nastartovaný dohodou z dubna 2013, se v české zahraniční politice stále ještě nikterak neprojevil, začal však již být brán v potaz v českém mediálním prostoru. V roce 2015 také pokračoval trend geopolitického soupeření mezi EU a Ruskem, který započal v roce 2014 a doposud fungoval jako katalyzátor euroatlantické integrace západního Balkánu a protiváha únavy z integrace ve starých členských státech EU.

The Balkan dimension of Czech foreign policy

Author(s): Tomáš Dopita / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Identically to former years, some representatives of the Czech foreign policy continued with the proactive support of the Western Balkans Euro-Atlantic integration in 2015 as the main long-lasting priority of the Balkan dimension within the Czech foreign policy. Identically to former years, the Czech foreign policy was polarized and politicised in regard to the independence of Kosovo. The normalisation process be-tween Serbia and Kosovo, commenced by the agreement from April 2013, was not reflected in the Czech foreign policy but it was considered by the Czech media. In 2015, the trend of geopolitical competing continued between the EU and Russia; it started in 2014 and functioned as a catalyst for the Euro-Atlantic integration of the Western Balkans and the counterbalance to the tiredness from the integration in the old EU member states. The general procedure during the integration of the Western Balkans was accompanied by the further development of direct economic and social relationships with all South East European countries, and the economic dimension in 2015 was less affected by former unsuccessful investment expansion of Czech power generating companies in this area. Like in the previous year, the Greek debts played quite a significant and special role in the Czech foreign policy in 2015; it was strongly discussed in the public debate on European and macroeconomic topics but the communication on the official side of the Czech foreign policy was minimal. The new subject of reaction in 2015 from the Czech foreign policy representatives, the public, and media was the wave of migrants passing through the Western-Balkan migration path. In regard to the structure, this chapter focuses on the current solutions and political context of the Czech foreign policy in regard to the Balkan Peninsula. Subsequently, the attention is focused on the agenda and the events in 2015, namely the Euro-Atlantic integration of the Western Balkans, the economic and social relations with Southeast Europe, the refugee wave and the migration. Prior to the conclusion, the analysis of the media context of the Czech foreign policy has been introduced with respect to individual Balkan countries.