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Germany’s first national security strategy: the minimal consensus

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska,Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

On 14 June 2023, the German government adopted the country’s first ever national security strategy entitled ‘Integrated Security for Germany’. The strategy is guided by an ambitious comprehensive approach which emphasises the need to boost Germany’s defence preparedness, resilience and to ensure the sustainable use of natural resources. This is also the first time when Russia has been clearly identified as a threat to Germany and its allies. The document highlights also the role of NATO and Germany’s commitment to collective defence. The ruling coalition has been aware of the need to define more precisely its course in the security policy.At the same time, the strategy reflects the minimal consensus between the coalition parties in many areas. However, this strategy can only serve as a starting point for further discussions due to the lack of priorities and defined tools, inadequate funding and unresolved problems with policy coordination.

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Prigozhin’s mutiny as a stress test for the Putin system: events, conclusions, outlook

Author(s): Team OSW / Language(s): English

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny came as a shock to the Russian elite. Moreover, the ease with which the Wagner troops seized Rostov-on-Don and started to head towards Moscow without encountering any major resistance provoked panic. Some representatives of the political and business elite, most likely including Vladimir Putin, left the capital in a hurry. The law enforcement bodies behaved passively, which likely resulted from a lack of clear orders and perhaps also from a reluctance to obey them, as well as from the lack of enough forces and equipment to suppress the mutiny effectively. Prigozhin received no signs of support from the federal and regional elites or the law enforcement bodies, all of which maintained their official, albeit passive, loyalty to the Kremlin. The public also remained passive. Although the events took state propaganda by surprise, state media outlets quickly started to report on the revolt, which proves that the Kremlin realised how sensitive this issue was. The propaganda message was that the law enforcement bodies, the elite and the public were opposed to Prigozhin’s initiative and actively supported the president. External actors monitored the developments in Russia with concern, fearing that the Russian state might have become ungovernable. None of Moscow’s formal allies offered it active support; they limited themselves to expressing verbal support, which was often belated. However, the rapid end of the crisis may also have influenced their stance.

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Ukrainian oligarchs and their businesses: their fading importance

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

The longer Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine continues, the weaker the oligarchs’ influence on the country’s political and economic life becomes. They have failed to regain control over media coverage and have little to no sway over parliament. Their businesses have suffered heavy losses as a result of the hostilities and the economic crisis. Consequently, the estimated wealth of many oligarchs has more than halved. In addition, the state has taken numerous steps aimed at representatives of big business, including the nationalization of some of their assets. This trend will persist as long as the active phase of the war continues. However, it is too early to say that the decline of the oligarchs is permanent.

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A EU War Chest: the success and uncertain future of the European Peace Facility

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

On 26 June the Council of the EU raised the ceiling for the financing of the European Peace Facility (EPF) for the second time this year, this time by €3.5 billion. It will now total €10.5 billion at 2018 prices or around €12 billion at current prices (adjusted for inflation). The EPF is designed as an off-budget mechanism for financing the common costs of the EU’s offshore military operations and missions as well as assistance to its partners. Since 24 February 2022, it has served predominantly as an instrument for providing indirect military support to Ukraine. This continuing repurposing of the EPF is beginning to raise concern among those member states which are focused on the EU’s southern neighborhood and which used to be the main supporters of the Facility. There is, moreover, a risk that some EU countries will treat support for further increases in EPF funding as a bargaining chip on issues that are important to them, or make it conditional on a stronger link between the EPF and initiatives to strengthen the EU’s Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB).

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Ukraine Successful in Holding Russia to Account at the European Court of Human Rights

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

The decision of the European Court of Human Rights(ECtHR) issued on 25 January opens the way to hold Russia accountable for human rights violations in eastern Ukraine and order it to pay compensation. It also challenges numerous theses of Russian propaganda regarding Ukraine and the positions of countries sharing Russia’s point of view. At the same time, the decision reaffirms the importance of documenting the violations committed and the need to develop international mechanisms to pay compensation awarded in case Russia refuses to do so.

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China Becoming Globally More Active in the Security Sphere

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China is expanding its potential to project power abroad. It includes legal changes, expansion of military infrastructure in other countries, and cooperation with partners in the Pacific. An example of their activity in the field of security is the operations of Chinese security companies, mainly in the Middle East and Africa. This should encourage NATO to further deepen cooperation with its members and partners, including with Pacific countries, as well as to strengthen the coordination of EU and U.S. policy towards developing countries.

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An anti-colonial alliance with the Global South. The new ‘Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation’

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

On 31 March, President Vladimir Putin signed the new ‘Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation’. This is the fifth version of the document adopted by the Russian Federation, and the fourth under his rule (the previous ones were adopted in 1993, 2000, 2008, 2013 and 2016). The current edition is primarily of significance as propaganda. Its main purpose is to present Moscow’s conflict with the West as a defence against Western policies, which allegedly pose an existential threat to Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The document depicts Russia as the defender of the non-Western world against Western hegemony and neo-colonialism. The document also reflects a reorientation of Russia’s foreign policy towards its non-Western partners (primarily China, India, the ‘Islamic world’ and the Asia-Pacific region) at the expense of frozen or hostile relations with the transatlantic community, especially the United States.

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On the verge of blackout: Ukraine facing attacks on its electricity generation system

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Ukraine’s power plants and electricity grid have been subjected to regular, massive shelling campaigns using ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones for the past three months. Although they have not so far brought about a permanent nationwide blackout, on several occasions they resulted in significant destabilisation of the grid’s operation. Increasingly frequent power outages (both planned and unplanned, usually lasting many hours) have become daily occurrences in almost all regions of Ukraine. In response to this, Kyiv has prepared measures to secure the state’s continued operation in situations of prolonged power outages. At the end of December 2022, a network of nearly 1500 banking outlets was established to provide banking services regardless of the situation. To ensure that other sectors of the economy can continue operating uninterrupted, filling station and mobile network operators have also taken similar measures. While it is impossible to predict whether Russia will attain its goal, namely to cause a complete and prolonged blackout of Ukraine, the attacks carried out so far have already had a very negative impact on the country’s economy. At the same time, there are no indications that the problems with electricity supplies will break the resistance of Ukrainian society or significantly boost migration.

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No Exit: France on Its Discord with Mali and the Situation in the Sahel

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Since the coup d'étatin May 2021, Mali’smilitary authorities have been making unfriendly gestures towards France and pushing for its troops to leave the country as soon as possible. The situation has been exacerbated by Russia, which is supporting the Malian junta through private military companies and inspiring actions that are harmful to France. The rise of anti-French and anti-Western sentiment in the region is hampering France’s efforts to involve its European partners in the operation. Instead of focusing on the fight against terror, France is falling into conflicts with countries in the region and yielding to Russian influence.

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Ukrainians Resist in the Occupied South

Author(s): Maria Piechowska,Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

Since mid-April this year, acts of sabotage and subversion against the occupation forces, attacks on local collaborators, and information and psychological operations have been taking place in the southern areas of Ukraine. Their aim is to weaken the morale of the Russian troops, discourage the local population from collaborating, and maintain their determination to oppose the occupation authorities. At present, the scale and scope of these activities are insufficient to contribute to changing the operational situation on the southeastern front; however, strengthening the resistance movement to intensify its activities could play an important role in a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive.

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Erosion of the post-Soviet system in Central Asia

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota,Miłosz Szymański / Language(s): English

In 2022, post-Soviet Central Asia experienced a number of fundamental challenges that undermine and redefine the systemic foundations of order and stability that have been in place in the region over the past decades. Some of these challenges are typical for the region and have been particularly evident in the protests held in Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, but also in other cases. They are manifestations of a violent (in Kazakhstan) or evolutionary (in Uzbekistan) transition of these states’ political systems and, to no lesser degree, of a social transformation and increased popular aspirations, especially in the region’s two largest countries.

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NATO after Madrid: how much deterrence and defence on the eastern flank?

Author(s): Jacek Tarociński,Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

NATO’s new Strategic Concept adopted at the Madrid summit defines Russia as the most significant and direct threat to allied security and does not rule out the possibility of an attack against any of the Allies. NATO intends to strengthen its deterrence and defence posture, but there will be no revolutionary change in its military presence on the eastern flank. The compromise reached at the summit implies there will be limited reinforcements of the existing battle groups and a pre-assignment of forces stationed primarily in Western Europe. Additionally, NATO will develop a new Force Model by increasing the pool of higher readiness forces fitted into defence planning and subordinated to SACEUR. This may prove to be a much more far-reaching decision for the future of the allied deterrence and defence posture but it remains to be seen how it will be implemented in practice. Nor will changes be seen in the US military presence on the eastern flank from rotational to permanent – with the minor exception of the V Corps Headquarters Forward Command Post. Washington will, though, place a second rotational brigade in the Black Sea region. Overall, the security of the eastern flank will be strengthened in the coming years, but not to the extent expected by those NATO members bordering Russia.

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Three weeks of war: Putin’s tactical dilemmas

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Three weeks after the start of the war against Ukraine, the Kremlin’s political objectives have not been achieved. The resistance from the Ukrainian armed forces persists, the morale of Ukrainian society is high, and the very serious sanctions imposed by the international community on Russia are causing an economic crisis and the partial political isolation of the country. There are many indications that this situation has largely come as a surprise to the Kremlin, which has fallen victim to faulty analysis and forecasting. In this situation, the man responsible for the decision to invade, the Russian President Vladimir Putin, faces the challenge of which further tactics of action to choose. It is now difficult to predict further developments, as these will depend particularly on the level of Ukrainian resistance, the scale of Western support and the immediate effects of sanctions. Of the many possible scenarios, the most likely now seems to be that of either halting the Russian offensive once a political agreement to implement some of the Kremlin’s political demands has been reached; or continuing it for a longer period of time, leading to Russia’s seizure of significant areas (especially the south-east of Ukraine) and the destruction of key elements of its military and civil infrastructure, turning the country into a failed state.

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The EU’s security and defence policy: in search of a compass

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

In the EU, work is underway on the Strategic Compass, a security strategy that is intended to define the Union’s priorities in crisis management, capability development, partnerships and resilience for the next 5–10 years. It aims to define the EU’s role in an increasingly complex security environment where NATO and the US are redefining their priorities. The Strategic Compass is also intended to maintain the momentum of the EU initiatives launched in 2016, such as the Permanent Structured Cooperation or the European Defence Fund. The process of developing the document, and the EU’s security and defence policy in general, has been marred by the member states’ conflicting threat perceptions and interests. Nevertheless, under pressure from France and the European Commission, the EU has been making some progress in this area. The Strategic Compass will set the framework for Union’s future actions. However, implementing the strategy will depend on the member states’ commitment to the means and goals agreed, and thus cannot reflect the interests of one group of EU countries alone.

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Ukraine’s disputes over the 80th anniversary of the Babi Yar massacre

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

On 29 September 2021 and 6 October 2021 two competing ceremonies were held in Kyiv to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the massacre at Babi Yar, where Kyiv Jews and representatives of other ethnic and political groups were exterminated. No comprehensive commemoration of these crimes was offered, either during the Soviet era or in the last 30 years of Ukraine’s independence. It was only in recent years that two projects to commemorate the Babi Yar massacre emerged. However, a sharp dispute between their initiators is ongoing. The first project, proposed by the Academy of Sciences and supported by ‘patriotic’ groups, presents the Holocaust against the backdrop of the martyrdom of other nations, and views Ukraine as a victim of two totalitarian systems. The other project, which is a private initiative, focuses on commemorating the genocide of the Jews on Ukrainian soil. However, this one has sparked controversy mainly due to the involvement in it of sponsors and contributors from Russia. This project has received backing from both the Ukrainian and Israeli governments due to its advanced stage of implementation, its cutting-edge design and its focus on Holocaust.

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USA – Germany – NATO’s eastern flank. Transformation of the US military presence in Europe

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

At the end of July, US Defence Secretary Mark Esper announced plans to withdraw approximately 12 000 US troops from Germany. Reactions in Berlin were varied. The main narrative is that of Germany being penalised and transatlantic ties being undermined. In anticipation of the US presidential election, the federal government is being guarded in its statements. The German federal states affected by the cuts have started lobbying to stop the plans. The political parties in Germany are divided in their views on the Trump administration’s decision, which is welcomed by almost half of German society. Regardless of the motives, the Pentagon’s plans show the trend in the restructuring of the US permanent military presence in Europe. US permanent forces in Europe could in future be cut further as the US is less and less engaged in the Middle East and Africa. The units being recalled from Germany will not be moved permanently to allies east of the Oder. For NATO’s eastern flank, the Pentagon is developing the concept of a flexible, scalable presence, allowing rapid reductions, but also rapid reinforcement of US forces. The changes to the US military presence in Europe are challenging for the European allies. A departure from the standard debate on the US’ withdrawal from Europe or on the NATO-Russia Founding Act is needed. The discussion is overdue on how to adapt to the transformation of the US presence with regard to collective defence within NATO, and how Europe, and not only France, should engage in crisis management in the European neighborhood.

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Northern Kosovo Dispute Escalates Again

Author(s): Filip Bryjka,Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

Extraordinary by-elections in the north of Kosovo scheduled originally for 18 and 25 December of this year are now not due to take place until 2023. Both the original announcement and the postponement of the elections are iterations of the ongoing Serbia-Kosovo dispute. It was exacerbated by Kosovo’s progress in European integration, including its 15 December application for EU membership, and Serbian favouritism of Russia in its war with Ukraine. Failure to effectively resolve the dispute increases the risk of destabilisation in the Balkans, including in connection with this war.

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Russian Attacks May Prompt Increased Refugee Flows from Ukraine

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

Russia is continuing its intensive attacks on critical infrastructure in Ukraine. These are deliberate actions that violate international humanitarian law and are aimed at breaking the morale of Ukrainian society. Power outages mean that many towns and villages are not only without heating but also without water. Further devastation and the difficulty of repairs could trigger a humanitarian catastrophe. Most of the population will try to survive the winter in their current residences or by resettling in smaller towns. Increased refugee movement across borders, especially to Poland, is also possible.

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Prospects For Russia’s Policy Towards Afghanistan

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

Taking advantage of the withdrawal of the U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan, Russia intends to strengthen its influence in that country by increasing contacts with the Afghan government and the Taliban. The aim is to become a key mediator in the peace process, which will enable it to influence the participants, increase control over the situation in Afghanistan, and use it in relations with the countries of the region. Russia’s policy may make the stabilisation of Afghanistan more difficult and undermine the effects of the efforts made by NATO countries during the stabilisation mission.

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Cautious Triumphalism: China on Afghanistan

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and the end of the U.S. military mission is being used by China as evidence of the failure of American interventionism. Chinese propaganda emphasises the advantage of its own model of relations with other countries, marked by the declared lack of interference in their internal affairs. The Chinese authorities do not want to engage economically in Afghanistan for the time being, as they do not believe that the Taliban will provide efficient administration or security for possible investments. China instead will focus on political support and limited humanitarian aid in cooperation with regional countries, as well as with the EU.

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