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SANDZAK: CALM FOR NOW (ICG Balkans Report N°48)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The Sandzak is an area within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia that borders Serbia and Montenegro. It has a multicultural, multiethnic history and a majority population that is Muslim. Since the rise of Serbian strong-man Slobodan Milosevic to political power the majority Muslims have been the targets of coercion. For the time being, the major issue is Milosevic’s continuing repression of human and political rights. Stating that, however, is not concluding that the area is entirely immune from the effects of a serious and full-blown military crisis.

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BREAKING THE LOGJAM: REFUGEE RETURNS TO CROATIA (ICG Balkans Report N°49)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The position Croatia's Serbs has long been contentious. Croat nationalists have often seen the Croatian Serbs as a Trojan Horse that has been used to undermine Croatia, with the aim of carving out pieces of Croatian territory and joining them to a Greater Serbian state. In communist times there was widespread Croat resentment at perceived advantages afforded to Serbs in Croatian party bodies and institutions. Serbs for their part derived many advantages from Croatia's inclusion in Yugoslavia, which placed them in a wider union bringing together Serb communities throughout Yugoslavia. The nationalist euphoria with which most Croats greeted the assertion of Croatian sovereignty and independence in 1990- 91 caused anxiety and insecurity among Serbs which, manipulated by the Serbian leadership in Belgrade, led to an armed rebellion in regions in which Serbs formed a significant proportion of the population, and the expulsion of most Croats from those regions. Croatia's reconquest of most of those regions in 1995 met with international disapproval, due to the mass Serb exodus which it prompted and widespread atrocities against the few who remained.

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TO BUILD A PEACE: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE MADRID PEACE IMPLEMENTATION COUNCIL MEETING (ICG Balkans Report N°52)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Three years after the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), the country has many of the trappings usually associated with statehood such as a common flag, currency, vehicle licence plate and passport. However, these and other breakthroughs have generally required disproportionate amounts of time and effort on the part of the international community and have all too often been rammed through in spite of Bosnia’s domestic institutions. Despite visible progress towards many of the goals contained within the DPA, therefore, Bosnia’s peace still gives the impression that it is built on shifting sands. Moreover, although critical to the peace process, the scale of the international presence, which increasingly resembles a protectorate, is in some ways counter-productive to Bosnia’s long-term future. On the one hand, domestic institutions and politicians have to a large extent given up responsibility for governing their own country. On the other, the massive international stake has led key international players to declare the peace process a success, irrespective of how it is actually evolving. The international presence is also extremely expensive, costing some $9 billion a year.

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MILOSEVIC: DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN? Briefing on the Yugoslav leader’s latest manoeuvres (ICG Balkans Report Nº 53)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

In the past few weeks the Belgrade authorities have sacked a number of key public officials. The two most prominent were security chief Stanisic and head of the army general staff Perisic. The firings triggered much speculation in the international media about the stability of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic’s regime. According to one interpretation, the sackings signal a fundamental weakness in government ranks, with Milosevic moving pre-emptively to oust potential rivals to his authority. Alternatively, the sackings may represent an attempt by the Yugoslav President to further consolidate his power base and to effectively rule with the backing of Yugoslavia’s military and security establishments. Both Stanisic and Perisic were seen as Milosevic’s opponents on several key policies, notably Belgrade’s handling of relations with the Kosovo Albanians. Both Perisic and Stanisic, reportedly moderates not favouring the use of severe force against the Kosovars, have been replaced by Milosevic “yes-men” regarded as proponents of a violent resolution of the Kosovo question. If this is even in part the case, Stanisic’s and Perisic’s sackings do not necessary reflect a weakness in Milosevic’s rule. Instead, the sackings may only signal Milosevic’s resolve to return to force as a means of regional problem solving.

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POLITIČKA ANALIZA: Bilateralni odnosi Bosne i Hercegovine i Srbije Fokus na spoljnu politiku Srbije prema BiH

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Davor Vuletić,Mirza Kušljugić,Dževad F. Sarajlić,Zlatko Dizdarević / Language(s): Bosnian

Burdened by the legacy of conflict, imbued with a multitude of interests and motivations, the relations between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia represent a complex subject for analysis. The historical legacy in relations is an unavoidable factor in the current bilateral parallels, but for the purposes of this analysis, history will not represent a separate entity, but the background of different angles will be presented in the given context. thus, we intend to avoid a summary overview of the historical development of relations, which could easily introduce elements of prejudging contemporary and future relations, and could not be exhaustive and include all important aspects and events. the text that follows is the result of consideration of vital and central issues in the relations between the two countries, by no means a comprehensive presentation of absolutely total bilateral relations. The special attention that is focused on the foreign policy of the eastern neighbor helps to limit the analysis and thus somewhat deepens its scope. Other questions, which could also be worth studying, but did not find a place in this text, can be carried out in a similar way in further analyses.

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POLITIČKA ANALIZA: Iran i Srednji istok Perspektive na starim premisama: Denuklearizacija lrana. Povratak Rusije. Strah među Arapima. Skepticizam Izraela.

Author(s): Hajrudin Somun / Language(s): Bosnian

In everything that has happened in the Middle East in the last few decades, especially since the "Arab Spring" in 2011, which turned from a mass social revolt against authoritarian authorities into its antipode - the so-called The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) or Daesh as it is abbreviated in the Middle East, the political, ideological and military role of Iran could not be ignored. However, the door to the Middle East was reopened to the Islamic Republic only in the summer of 2015, after the conclusion of an agreement on its nuclear program with the five world powers on which international politics rests. The nuclear deal with Iran, in itself, could have contributed to calming tensions and regional security, so it was accepted, with more or less approval, by most Arab countries and Turkey, but Saudi Arabia and Israel rejected it and accepted it as a threat to their own existence.

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GLOBALNI I REGIONALNI POREDAK. Meka diplomatija Sjeverne Makedonije. Tranzicija Prespanskog foruma za dijalog iz brendirane vanjskopolitičke ideje u stvarnost

Author(s): Lejla Ramić-Mesihović / Language(s): Bosnian

Since the declaration of independence in 1992, the sovereignty and right to exist of the Republic of North Macedonia has been constantly under attack from its neighbors. The biggest problem and serious limitations for North Macedonian international interactions and the struggle for recognition comes from Greece, which contested the right of the new state to have any identity link with ancient Macedonia. After a three-decade dispute and struggle against the coercive diplomacy of its neighbors, the Republic of Macedonia changed its constitutional name to the Republic of North Macedonia after its Prime Minister, Zoran Zaev, a social democrat, signed the Prespa Agreement with the then Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tzipras. The non-invasive and cooperative foreign policy of the current government of North Macedonia reintroduced and underlined the pacifist and collaborative foreign policy practice that resulted in the Prespa forum initiative.

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MIR I SIGURNOST: Efekti ruskog protivljenja širenju NATO-a: Slučaj Bosne i Hercegovine

Author(s): Alija Kožljak / Language(s): Bosnian

Today's complex security environment undoubtedly requires a more comprehensive response to modern multidirectional, both conventional and asymmetric threats. NATO, as the most relevant security alliance, a few years ago, realized the need for development and application of the concept of cooperative security, which goes beyond collective security defense, but also the traditional understanding of security. This concept enabled the establishment of new partnerships, more far-reaching promotion of security, but also further expansion of NATO, which greatly disrupted the long-standing geopolitical balance. Recovered from the post-Cold War era crash, the Russian Federation is again looking for an opportunity for global relevance, and one of the key challenges is stopping further expansion of NATO to the East. In this context, and to a large extent, they can also consider Euro-Atlantic integration processes in the Western Balkans. Bosnia and Herzegovina, as the only official aspirant for NATO membership meets with numerous external and internal challenges, which significantly affect the progress of NATO integration. This subject study more concretely analyzes the effects of opposition from the Russian Federation expansion of NATO, demonstrating numerous examples of activities and instruments of action, which explain the essence Russian influence in the Western Balkans. Accordingly, the case study of Bosnia and Herzegovina will be used, analyzing application of the strategy of the Russian Federation to achieve own national interests. Russian Federation uses the weaknesses of the institutions in BiH, and the shortcomings of the foreign policy engagement of the "West", in order to expand its spheres of influence, and prevented NATO integration processes. Research fills a gap in the foreign policy analysis literature and geopolitics, especially the one dealing with NATO integration. Data will be collected using qualitative research methods and secondary research. Keywords: NATO integration, Russian Federation, Bosnia and Herzegovina

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UNIFYING THE KOSOVAR FACTIONS: The Way Forward (ICG Balkans Report N°58)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The Kosovo peace talks, held at Rambouillet (France) under the auspices of the sixnation Contact Group, have been suspended until 15 March 1999 after a provisional agreement was reached on granting substantial autonomy for Kosovo. However, neither the Kosovo Albanians nor Serbian delegates have yet signed the draft peace accord, which calls for a NATO peacekeeping mission in Kosovo, and in which the "final status" issue has been deliberately fudged. The immense complexities of the Kosovo question were dramatically illustrated at Rambouillet by the last-minute refusal of the Albanian delegation to sign the accord, due to pressure from a hardline faction of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) which refused to attend the talks.

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KOSOVO: THE ROAD TO PEACE. Critical Implementation Issues and a "Who's Who" of Key Players

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

While last spring saw conflict erupt in Kosovo's central Drenica region when Serbian security forces attacked and killed residents of the villages of Prekaz and Likoshan, this spring brings the possibility of peace. The proposed deployment of a 28,000-strong international force for Kosovo will dramatically and immediately halt the sporadic low-intensity battles between Serbian security forces and ethnic Albanian rebels that have displaced 300,000 people. This peace will allow refugees to return to their homes, and provide the day-to-day sense of security on the ground that will enable Kosovo's transition to self-government.

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MACEDONIA UPDATE: Challenges and Choices for the New Government (ICG Balkans Report N°60)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This latest ICG report on Macedonia was written during March, as the new humanitarian catastrophe in neighbouring Kosovo unfolded and reached a new scale. Because of the recent events in Kosovo and the region at large, parts of this report have been overtaken by new developments. In particular, this concerns issues relating to the amount of aid reaching Macedonia, actions taken to alleviate the refugee situation in Macedonia and, most importantly, the Government’s ability to deal with the increasing number of refugees. Indeed, events in the last few days may well have reached a point beyond the Government’s capacity to respond. On the whole however, the analysis and conclusions of this report are still valid and still merit consideration despite the fact that local and international attention is now focusing on developments in Kosovo and their effect on neighbouring countries

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WAR IN THE BALKANS: Consequences of the Kosovo Conflict and Future Options for Kosovo and the Region (ICG Balkans Report N° 61)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

NATO’s strategy in the war with Yugoslavia over Kosovo isn’t working. As the Alliance’s bombing campaign enters its fourth week, it is Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic who is still winning the political game. Western governments have fallen into a humanitarian trap – concentrating on the hundreds of thousands of refugees expelled from Kosovo while failing to address the appalling human tragedy still going on inside the province. The present paper, prepared by International Crisis Group (ICG) analysts in Belgrade, Skopje, Tirana, Sarajevo, Washington DC, and Brussels, summarises the situation on the ground throughout the Balkans in the wake of recent events and examines the difficult choices facing Western leaders. It concludes with a comprehensive statement of policy recommendations designed to contribute both to a solution to the immediate crisis and to longerterm regional stability.

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REPUBLIKA SRPSKA – POPLASEN, BRCKO AND KOSOVO: Three Crises and Out? (ICG Balkans Report N° 62)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The early part of 1999 has been turbulent for Republika Srpska. Political life has been unsettled by three separate and hardly-related crises: the decision of the High Representative to remove from office the RS President Nikola Poplasen; the decision of International Arbitrator Roberts Owen to give the municipality of Brcko neither to RS nor to the Federation but to both as a condominium; and the NATO air-strikes on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY). Either of the first two issues alone would have been ordinary daily business in the bad-tempered world of Bosnian politics. The two together could probably have been handled. But RS reactions to NATO action in FRY, coming on top of the excitement already created by previous events, have raised tensions to very high levels. Numerous peaceful demonstrations have turned violent, and international organisations – usually the target of the demonstrations – have withdrawn most of their personnel. There are still elements in RS ready and willing to use violence to promote political objectives, and the current climate offers them fertile soil. The beleaguered authorities in Belgrade have every reason to foster a diversion in Bosnia to give the international community another problem besides Kosovo to worry about. The present moment could be the most dangerous for the Dayton Peace Agreement since it was signed in 1995.

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MILOŠEVIĆ’S AIMS IN WAR AND DIPLOMACY (ICG Balkans Report N° 65)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This report, prepared by ICG’s Belgrade-based analyst, looks back on an extraordinary two months of war and diplomacy in the Balkans. It argues that Milosevic, while not actively willing NATO bombing, was prepared for that eventuality3 and examines how he has used it to his advantage. The start of NATO’s air campaign on 24 March 1999 provided Milosevic with the cover to unleash his own ground war within Kosovo. Within hours of the first NATO missiles being fired, Yugoslav forces, including paramilitaries, embarked on the most vicious and extensive campaign of ethnic cleansing seen in Europe since World War II. An estimated 88 percent of the Kosovo population have been driven from their homes, the bulk forced to seek refuge outside of Yugoslavia. For the first three weeks of NATO air strikes, Milosevic sought to shore up his position at home, assuming sweeping war-time powers, refusing to countenance any concessions to NATO’s demands and riding a wave of nationalist resentment directed against the West. During this phase of the conflict, Milosevic strove to emphasise that the Serbs was not alone in the world, holding out the prospect of Serbia’s allies, in particular Russia, intervening militarily to protect the country from attack. Much play was made of remarks by Russian President Boris Yeltsin and members of the Russian legislature that NATO’s action risked triggering a new world war.

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KOSOVO: LET’S LEARN FROM BOSNIA. Models and Methods of International Administration (ICG Balkans Report N° 66)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

After almost three and a half years working in Bosnia to implement the Dayton Peace Agreement, the international community will soon face the prospect of establishing a presence in Kosovo. The model proposed at Rambouillet was very similar to that set up at Dayton, but the situation now is very different. This report examines the international effort in Bosnia to see whether lessons can be drawn for Kosovo and other possible future international administrations. At Dayton it was assumed that military implementation would be harder than civilian, so the two were kept rigidly separate, and the role allotted to civilian implementation was to give a ‘helping hand’ to the Bosnian authorities, who were assumed to want to co-operate with implementation. The Rambouillet agreement preserved the same division between civilian and military implementation as Dayton. Yet experience in Bosnia has shown that a helping hand has not been enough since the Bosnian parties have not in fact co-operated among themselves or with the internationals. In response, the High Representative in Bosnia has gradually taken on extra powers, but his ability to use them effectively is limited because he still has no force at his disposal to back him up. However many powers he appears to have, he will always face this problem, even if a so-called ‘protectorate’ is established. Currently, influence over aid is his only real power.

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THE BALKAN REFUGEE CRISIS: Regional and long-term Perspectives. (ICG Balkans Report N° 68)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

This report argues in favour of providing temporary protection2 for refugees in the region, with the aim of them returning home at the earliest opportunity. Temporary protection is necessary to maintain pressure on Belgrade and demonstrate our commitment to reverse the effects of ethnic cleansing. But this report argues for more realism in relation to the length of time it will take to reverse the present refugee flow. Lessons from Croatia and Bosnia have demonstrated that there is no such thing as fast voluntary return in the wake of war and ethnic cleansing3. Perhaps induced, but most likely not voluntary. Non-voluntary return of refugees is a very sensitive issue. The international community can only try to circumvent it by striving to put in place the necessary conditions that would make return acceptable to Kosovo refugees. This report discusses these key conditions and calls for the establishment of a comprehensive repatriation plan. Strong regional management structures must be established by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in order to develop, co-ordinate and implement the strategy for the return process.

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THE NEW KOSOVO PROTECTORATE (ICG Balkans Report N°69)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The ICG Balkans Report N°66, “Kosovo: Let’s Learn from Bosnia”, of 17 May 1999 looked at how experience in Bosnia could be useful in Kosovo, and also at the extent to which the Rambouillet agreement of 23 February 1999 resembled the Dayton agreement of 21 November 1995. Now, following the campaign of NATO air strikes against Yugoslavia, a new framework of military and civilian involvement in Kosovo has been established by means of UN Security Council Resolution 1244 of 10 June 1999. This mechanism ensures the legality of the operation and contents the Russians and Chinese. It has also left the UN in charge of civilian implementation.

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BACK TO THE FUTURE: Milosevic Prepares for Life After Kosovo (ICG Balkans Report N°70)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Milosevic managed to survive the recent NATO onslaught in part by parlaying resentment against NATO into a wave of public support for his dictatorship. Adept at manipulating popular culture, the regime used such fortuitous events as the timing of the NATO action, coming only weeks before the anniversary of the Nazi bombing of Belgrade in the Second World War, to link the Western alliance with fascism in the public mind. Television programming gave prominence to heroic tales of WW2 partisan fighters, suggesting to the public how they might interpret NATO action. Any Western popular culture, from film to music to television, that degraded Western values or painted the West in a negative light also received wide play, and was clearly aimed at showing the decadence of the Alliance. Now with the war over, Milosevic continues to use the media to his advantage. While the rest of the world learns about the appalling atrocities committed in Kosovo against ethnic Albanians and recoils at images of torture dungeons and mass graves, the Serbian media continue to play up stories claiming that the Serbs were the real victims, brutalised as they were by both NATO aggression and Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) terrorism.

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REPUBLIKA SRPSKA IN THE POST-KOSOVO ERA: Collateral Damage and Transformation (ICG Report N° 71)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Repercussions from Kosovo continue to shake Republika Srpska (RS), and may prove a catalyst for further transformation and reform. The war’s collateral damage included severance of trade ties with the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY); a dramatic rise in unemployment; a sharp drop in production and state revenues; and a tide of Serbian refugees from FRY into RS. Despite this the security situation, which looked dangerous at the beginning of April, did not deteriorate out of control, and the government in Banja Luka was able to stabilise its position and survive. The government itself deserves credit for keeping its head throughout the crisis. The international community, especially OHR and the US government, did good work behind the scenes keeping the ruling Sloga coalition together. And a generally well-judged and lowkey response by SFOR managed to strike a balance between preserving security and not provoking incidents by its own actions. As Republika Srpska enters the post-Kosovo era it faces a crossroads, both economically and politically. RS now can move forward towards an integrated European future as part of BiH. Or it can move backwards, towards economic, social and political misery.

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RULE OVER LAW: Obstacles to the Development of an Independent Judiciary in Bosnia and Herzegovina. (Bosnia Legal Project Report N° 1)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The BiH judiciary is in transition. In the former SFRJ system, the judiciary ceded much control to the police to determine guilt in the field of criminal justice investigation, thus reducing elements of their authority in the legal process. Furthermore, Communist Party officials often interfered in the justice system. This interference has continued and even increased under the multi-party system. Two separate legal systems in BiH exist, with only ceremonial and appeals institutions and functions at the State level, in spite of the BiH Constitution which allows for the formation of more State court institutions. Within the Federation, loopholes in the legislation on the Supreme Court allow Croat-majority cantons to refuse to recognise the authority and the jurisdiction of the Supreme Court, thus containing all court functions within the jurisdiction of that Canton. Weak roles for Public Prosecutors, plus anomalies in the legislation which make it hard for strong, Federation-level judges to try cross-cantonal crimes, leave highly autonomous Cantonal Courts open to political influence from ruling parties.

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