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How Should NATO Shore Up Its Southern Flank?

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

The security vacuum in the Middle East and North Africa will have long-term negative consequences for the stability of Europe. The offensive of the Islamic State (IS), mass migration, and Russia’s attempts to rebuild its influence in opposition to the West in general and to the U.S and NATO in particular, will intensify new threats for NATO and its partners. Hence, NATO should adopt new policy on the Mediterranean, which will include investments in capabilities necessary for defence and crisis management missions, as well as for cooperation with partner countries.

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Jak wzmocnić południową flankę NATO

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): Polish

Próżnia bezpieczeństwa na Bliskim Wschodzie i w Afryce Północnej może być długofalowym zagrożeniem dla NATO. Ekspansja Państwa Islamskiego, masowe migracje oraz próby odbudowania przez Rosję wpływów w opozycji do Zachodu będą nasilały zagrożenia dla całego Sojuszu, a także dla jego partnerów. Dlatego NATO powinno opracować nową politykę wobec regionu Morza Śródziemnego, która uwzględni nie tylko wzmacnianie zdolności do obrony i prowadzenia misji reagowania kryzysowego, lecz także umożliwi bliższą współpracę z państwami partnerskimi.

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General Election in Myanmar: Neither a Breakthrough nor a Cosmetic Change

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

This weekend’s general election in Myanmar, the first credible vote in the country’s history, will mark a milestone in its transformation. Amidst the faltering peace process, and with Buddhist nationalism rising and economic and political reforms losing ground, the National League for Democracy is most likely to be the winner. Even though the army will retain ultimate control, and NLD leader Aung San Sui Kyi will not be next president, a more representative parliament will consolidate this nascent democracy and deserves strong support from the international community, including the EU.

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Operacja w Syrii – propagandowa rozgrywka Kremla

Author(s): Justyna Prus / Language(s): Polish

W rosyjskim przekazie medialnym interwencja w Syrii przedstawiana jest jako obrona interesów narodowych. Przy okazji Rosja realizuje cele w polityce zagranicznej i wewnętrznej. Na arenie międzynarodowej przełamuje izolację, wymuszając kontakty z USA i Zachodem, oraz przejmuje inicjatywę polityczną na Bliskim Wschodzie, demonstrując siłę militarną. Zarówno na zewnątrz, jak i wewnątrz kraju Kreml prezentuje fałszywy obraz sytuacji w Syrii. Na arenie wewnętrznej ma on służyć zyskaniu poparcia społecznego dla działań władz.

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Kunduz Taken: Effects of the Taliban Offensive on the Future of Afghanistan

Author(s): Beata Górka-Winter / Language(s): English

The ongoing clashes between the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) backed by U.S. troops on one side and the Taliban on the other in the Afghan city of Kunduz has exposed fundamental shortcomings in the government’s current counter-insurgency strategy as well as the weakness of the Afghan troops now deployed in the province. The enormous difficulty in regaining control over the city points to the need for re-evaluation of the current use of allied forces in Afghanistan, their rules of engagement, as well as the necessity of increasing assistance to the Afghan National Army (ANA). Moreover, the Afghan Ministry of Defence should be strengthened, training of ANA intensified and supplies delivered at a quicker pace. Losing control over this strategic province runs the risk the Taliban offensive will reach Kabul and other provinces. If it does, Afghanistan could become an arena of competition between various political forces in the country and once again entangle it in a long and debilitating conflict.

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Kunduz wzięty – skutki ofensywy talibów dla przyszłości Afganistanu

Author(s): Beata Górka-Winter / Language(s): Polish

Starcia sił rządowych i wspierających je wojsk amerykańskich z talibami w afgańskim mieście Kunduz obnażyły zasadnicze niedostatki strategii zwalczania rebelii oraz słabość stacjonujących tam oddziałów afgańskiej armii. Ogromne trudności z odzyskaniem kontroli nad miastem wskazują na konieczność ponownej ewaluacji planu obecności wojsk sojuszniczych, reguł ich zaangażowania, a także zwiększenia wsparcia dla afgańskich sił zbrojnych. Potrzebne będzie usprawnienie działalności afgańskiego Ministerstwa Obrony, zintensyfikowanie szkoleń żołnierzy oraz przyśpieszenie realizacji programów pozyskiwania sprzętu i uzbrojenia. Utrata kontroli nad strategiczną prowincją Kunduz grozi rozprzestrzenieniem się ofensywy talibów na kolejne prowincje, a Afganistan znów może stać się areną rywalizacji różnych sił politycznych oraz uwikłać się w kolejny długotrwały i wyniszczający konflikt wewnętrzny.

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The undeclared war. A new phase of the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki,Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English

More than two years after the end of the Second Karabakh War in November 2020, the situation in the conflict area remains highly unstable. Despite declarations of a de facto solution to the problem, intensive peace talks and Armenia signalling significant concessions on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, the region is once again becoming a flashpoint, as manifested by Azerbaijan’s blockade of it since December. In the process, the conflict has escalated to an open dispute between the two states. Azerbaijan has been provoking Armenia with military attacks along the line of the non-delimited state border (along which there was fierce fighting last September), and suggesting it might forcibly take over transportation routes (the so-called Zangezur corridor) on its neighbour’s territory.

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Germany’s first national security strategy: the minimal consensus

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska,Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

On 14 June 2023, the German government adopted the country’s first ever national security strategy entitled ‘Integrated Security for Germany’. The strategy is guided by an ambitious comprehensive approach which emphasises the need to boost Germany’s defence preparedness, resilience and to ensure the sustainable use of natural resources. This is also the first time when Russia has been clearly identified as a threat to Germany and its allies. The document highlights also the role of NATO and Germany’s commitment to collective defence. The ruling coalition has been aware of the need to define more precisely its course in the security policy.At the same time, the strategy reflects the minimal consensus between the coalition parties in many areas. However, this strategy can only serve as a starting point for further discussions due to the lack of priorities and defined tools, inadequate funding and unresolved problems with policy coordination.

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Prigozhin’s mutiny as a stress test for the Putin system: events, conclusions, outlook

Author(s): Team OSW / Language(s): English

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny came as a shock to the Russian elite. Moreover, the ease with which the Wagner troops seized Rostov-on-Don and started to head towards Moscow without encountering any major resistance provoked panic. Some representatives of the political and business elite, most likely including Vladimir Putin, left the capital in a hurry. The law enforcement bodies behaved passively, which likely resulted from a lack of clear orders and perhaps also from a reluctance to obey them, as well as from the lack of enough forces and equipment to suppress the mutiny effectively. Prigozhin received no signs of support from the federal and regional elites or the law enforcement bodies, all of which maintained their official, albeit passive, loyalty to the Kremlin. The public also remained passive. Although the events took state propaganda by surprise, state media outlets quickly started to report on the revolt, which proves that the Kremlin realised how sensitive this issue was. The propaganda message was that the law enforcement bodies, the elite and the public were opposed to Prigozhin’s initiative and actively supported the president. External actors monitored the developments in Russia with concern, fearing that the Russian state might have become ungovernable. None of Moscow’s formal allies offered it active support; they limited themselves to expressing verbal support, which was often belated. However, the rapid end of the crisis may also have influenced their stance.

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Ukrainian oligarchs and their businesses: their fading importance

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

The longer Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine continues, the weaker the oligarchs’ influence on the country’s political and economic life becomes. They have failed to regain control over media coverage and have little to no sway over parliament. Their businesses have suffered heavy losses as a result of the hostilities and the economic crisis. Consequently, the estimated wealth of many oligarchs has more than halved. In addition, the state has taken numerous steps aimed at representatives of big business, including the nationalization of some of their assets. This trend will persist as long as the active phase of the war continues. However, it is too early to say that the decline of the oligarchs is permanent.

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A EU War Chest: the success and uncertain future of the European Peace Facility

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

On 26 June the Council of the EU raised the ceiling for the financing of the European Peace Facility (EPF) for the second time this year, this time by €3.5 billion. It will now total €10.5 billion at 2018 prices or around €12 billion at current prices (adjusted for inflation). The EPF is designed as an off-budget mechanism for financing the common costs of the EU’s offshore military operations and missions as well as assistance to its partners. Since 24 February 2022, it has served predominantly as an instrument for providing indirect military support to Ukraine. This continuing repurposing of the EPF is beginning to raise concern among those member states which are focused on the EU’s southern neighborhood and which used to be the main supporters of the Facility. There is, moreover, a risk that some EU countries will treat support for further increases in EPF funding as a bargaining chip on issues that are important to them, or make it conditional on a stronger link between the EPF and initiatives to strengthen the EU’s Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB).

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Ukraine Successful in Holding Russia to Account at the European Court of Human Rights

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

The decision of the European Court of Human Rights(ECtHR) issued on 25 January opens the way to hold Russia accountable for human rights violations in eastern Ukraine and order it to pay compensation. It also challenges numerous theses of Russian propaganda regarding Ukraine and the positions of countries sharing Russia’s point of view. At the same time, the decision reaffirms the importance of documenting the violations committed and the need to develop international mechanisms to pay compensation awarded in case Russia refuses to do so.

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China Becoming Globally More Active in the Security Sphere

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China is expanding its potential to project power abroad. It includes legal changes, expansion of military infrastructure in other countries, and cooperation with partners in the Pacific. An example of their activity in the field of security is the operations of Chinese security companies, mainly in the Middle East and Africa. This should encourage NATO to further deepen cooperation with its members and partners, including with Pacific countries, as well as to strengthen the coordination of EU and U.S. policy towards developing countries.

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An anti-colonial alliance with the Global South. The new ‘Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation’

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

On 31 March, President Vladimir Putin signed the new ‘Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation’. This is the fifth version of the document adopted by the Russian Federation, and the fourth under his rule (the previous ones were adopted in 1993, 2000, 2008, 2013 and 2016). The current edition is primarily of significance as propaganda. Its main purpose is to present Moscow’s conflict with the West as a defence against Western policies, which allegedly pose an existential threat to Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The document depicts Russia as the defender of the non-Western world against Western hegemony and neo-colonialism. The document also reflects a reorientation of Russia’s foreign policy towards its non-Western partners (primarily China, India, the ‘Islamic world’ and the Asia-Pacific region) at the expense of frozen or hostile relations with the transatlantic community, especially the United States.

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On the verge of blackout: Ukraine facing attacks on its electricity generation system

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Ukraine’s power plants and electricity grid have been subjected to regular, massive shelling campaigns using ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones for the past three months. Although they have not so far brought about a permanent nationwide blackout, on several occasions they resulted in significant destabilisation of the grid’s operation. Increasingly frequent power outages (both planned and unplanned, usually lasting many hours) have become daily occurrences in almost all regions of Ukraine. In response to this, Kyiv has prepared measures to secure the state’s continued operation in situations of prolonged power outages. At the end of December 2022, a network of nearly 1500 banking outlets was established to provide banking services regardless of the situation. To ensure that other sectors of the economy can continue operating uninterrupted, filling station and mobile network operators have also taken similar measures. While it is impossible to predict whether Russia will attain its goal, namely to cause a complete and prolonged blackout of Ukraine, the attacks carried out so far have already had a very negative impact on the country’s economy. At the same time, there are no indications that the problems with electricity supplies will break the resistance of Ukrainian society or significantly boost migration.

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No Exit: France on Its Discord with Mali and the Situation in the Sahel

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Since the coup d'étatin May 2021, Mali’smilitary authorities have been making unfriendly gestures towards France and pushing for its troops to leave the country as soon as possible. The situation has been exacerbated by Russia, which is supporting the Malian junta through private military companies and inspiring actions that are harmful to France. The rise of anti-French and anti-Western sentiment in the region is hampering France’s efforts to involve its European partners in the operation. Instead of focusing on the fight against terror, France is falling into conflicts with countries in the region and yielding to Russian influence.

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Ukrainians Resist in the Occupied South

Author(s): Maria Piechowska,Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

Since mid-April this year, acts of sabotage and subversion against the occupation forces, attacks on local collaborators, and information and psychological operations have been taking place in the southern areas of Ukraine. Their aim is to weaken the morale of the Russian troops, discourage the local population from collaborating, and maintain their determination to oppose the occupation authorities. At present, the scale and scope of these activities are insufficient to contribute to changing the operational situation on the southeastern front; however, strengthening the resistance movement to intensify its activities could play an important role in a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive.

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Erosion of the post-Soviet system in Central Asia

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota,Miłosz Szymański / Language(s): English

In 2022, post-Soviet Central Asia experienced a number of fundamental challenges that undermine and redefine the systemic foundations of order and stability that have been in place in the region over the past decades. Some of these challenges are typical for the region and have been particularly evident in the protests held in Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, but also in other cases. They are manifestations of a violent (in Kazakhstan) or evolutionary (in Uzbekistan) transition of these states’ political systems and, to no lesser degree, of a social transformation and increased popular aspirations, especially in the region’s two largest countries.

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NATO after Madrid: how much deterrence and defence on the eastern flank?

Author(s): Jacek Tarociński,Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

NATO’s new Strategic Concept adopted at the Madrid summit defines Russia as the most significant and direct threat to allied security and does not rule out the possibility of an attack against any of the Allies. NATO intends to strengthen its deterrence and defence posture, but there will be no revolutionary change in its military presence on the eastern flank. The compromise reached at the summit implies there will be limited reinforcements of the existing battle groups and a pre-assignment of forces stationed primarily in Western Europe. Additionally, NATO will develop a new Force Model by increasing the pool of higher readiness forces fitted into defence planning and subordinated to SACEUR. This may prove to be a much more far-reaching decision for the future of the allied deterrence and defence posture but it remains to be seen how it will be implemented in practice. Nor will changes be seen in the US military presence on the eastern flank from rotational to permanent – with the minor exception of the V Corps Headquarters Forward Command Post. Washington will, though, place a second rotational brigade in the Black Sea region. Overall, the security of the eastern flank will be strengthened in the coming years, but not to the extent expected by those NATO members bordering Russia.

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Three weeks of war: Putin’s tactical dilemmas

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Three weeks after the start of the war against Ukraine, the Kremlin’s political objectives have not been achieved. The resistance from the Ukrainian armed forces persists, the morale of Ukrainian society is high, and the very serious sanctions imposed by the international community on Russia are causing an economic crisis and the partial political isolation of the country. There are many indications that this situation has largely come as a surprise to the Kremlin, which has fallen victim to faulty analysis and forecasting. In this situation, the man responsible for the decision to invade, the Russian President Vladimir Putin, faces the challenge of which further tactics of action to choose. It is now difficult to predict further developments, as these will depend particularly on the level of Ukrainian resistance, the scale of Western support and the immediate effects of sanctions. Of the many possible scenarios, the most likely now seems to be that of either halting the Russian offensive once a political agreement to implement some of the Kremlin’s political demands has been reached; or continuing it for a longer period of time, leading to Russia’s seizure of significant areas (especially the south-east of Ukraine) and the destruction of key elements of its military and civil infrastructure, turning the country into a failed state.

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